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> General Election 2017, 8th June
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burbe
post Apr 18 2017, 10:08 AM
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Theresa just announced ohmy.gif
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Soy Adrián
post Apr 18 2017, 10:11 AM
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Well fuck
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 18 2017, 10:15 AM
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Now to see if the Labour Party have the strength, or Jeremy Corbyn has the humility, to get a new leader before June 8th.

Where does this leave the Manchester Gorton by-election? Will it continue as usual, or will it be cancelled due to the close proximity to the General Election?

QUOTE
This results in a by-election in Belfast North, which Brett-Butler will stand in as an independent candidate on a strong Battenberg platform (and he will insist that his fellow members of Buzzjack hold him to his word on this if the prediction of a Belfast North by-election happens in 2017)


I'm going to have to feckin' do this now, aren't I.
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burbe
post Apr 18 2017, 10:25 AM
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8th June - the day we finally rid ourselves of Jeremy Corbyn *.* There's no way he can't resign after the inevitable general election loss.

It's very messy that they've announced this now. But I guess the Copeland result spurred them on to just do it.

I might make some early predictions as things stand before seeing the campaign:
-Tories will landslide but not as large as expected
-Lib Dems will make gains but not back to where they were in 2010, as they pick up the Bremain protest vote
-Labour will be decimated
-UKIP won't have more than 2 or 3
-SNP will stay on the same number of seats
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Qassändra
post Apr 18 2017, 10:26 AM
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FML.
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Iz~
post Apr 18 2017, 10:27 AM
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Holy crap what.
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 18 2017, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(irn_brube @ Apr 18 2017, 11:25 AM) *
8th June - the day we finally rid ourselves of Jeremy Corbyn *.* There's no way he can't resign after the inevitable general election loss.

It's very messy that they've announced this now. But I guess the Copeland result spurred them on to just do it.

I might make some early predictions as things stand before seeing the campaign:
-Tories will landslide but not as large as expected
-Lib Dems will make gains but not back to where they were in 2010, as they pick up the Bremain protest vote
-Labour will be decimated
-UKIP won't have more than 2 or 3
-SNP will stay on the same number of seats


Quite similar to my thoughts, although I think that the SNP will lose one or two seats, and I'd be surprised if Ukip picked up any seats, even though they are still polling more than 10% in opinion polls.
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Iz~
post Apr 18 2017, 10:33 AM
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Well, we know this is just going to be more Tory pain as they continue steering us towards destruction, no way will either Labour or the Lib Dems have any chance to put up a semblance of opposition, how are they going to put together any form of policy in just over a month? And it'll mean Tories until 2022 now.

The local elections in a couple of weeks should take on a whole different tone now, I was fairly ambivalent about who I'd be voting for there, now it'll have to be something that can show a trend to the country.
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burbe
post Apr 18 2017, 10:37 AM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 18 2017, 11:32 AM) *
Quite similar to my thoughts, although I think that the SNP will lose one or two seats, and I'd be surprised if Ukip picked up any seats, even though they are still polling more than 10% in opinion polls.


I think SNP will just about retain but very narrowly. I worry about UKIP in the north, I think they're likely to gain there but they're such a hard party to predict.
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Suedehead2
post Apr 18 2017, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 18 2017, 11:15 AM) *
Now to see if the Labour Party have the strength, or Jeremy Corbyn has the humility, to get a new leader before June 8th.

Where does this leave the Manchester Gorton by-election? Will it continue as usual, or will it be cancelled due to the close proximity to the General Election?
I'm going to have to feckin' do this now, aren't I.

When the Labour government lost a vote of confidence in 1979 there was a by-election underway in Liverpool Edge Hill. That election went ahead. I suspect the Gorton by-election will also have to go ahead.
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Liаm
post Apr 18 2017, 10:53 AM
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I can imagine UKIP gaining in the North too, but yeah they could go either way.


Really Tresseme is only doing this so she can win and silence people who say she's unelected laugh.gif Perhaps if Labour had a better leader from Brexit until now, it could have been a closer run thing, but not with Corbyn. At least as said, there's no way he can come back from such a trouncing in this surely.
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Apr 18 2017, 11:00 AM
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I think the SNP will slide to 50. Moray and the borders will go Tory and NE Fife will go LibDem. Edinburgh is anyone's guess but I'd bet on SNP 50, Tory 7, LD 2
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Popchartfreak
post Apr 18 2017, 11:04 AM
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Tory landslide to allow them to do whatever they want to the UK for the next 5 years, regardless of consequences for the wellbeing of an awful lot of (poorer) people.

Plus side, Jeremy will have a lot more time to spend on his allotments come July.
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Suedehead2
post Apr 18 2017, 11:09 AM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Apr 18 2017, 12:04 PM) *
Tory landslide to allow them to do whatever they want to the UK for the next 5 years, regardless of consequences for the wellbeing of an awful lot of (poorer) people.

Plus side, Jeremy will have a lot more time to spend on his allotments come July.

Indeed. The Tory manifest will be their most right-wing ever. They will then be able to claim a mandate for them despite very few of them getting any scrutiny in the campaign (even though it will be the longest campaign we've ever had). The return of secondary modern schools will be just one small part of it.
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burbe
post Apr 18 2017, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 18 2017, 11:49 AM) *
When the Labour government lost a vote of confidence in 1979 there was a by-election underway in Liverpool Edge Hill. That election went ahead. I suspect the Gorton by-election will also have to go ahead.


It seems like such an odd waste of resources though to fight two elections a month apart. Surely they will just wait until GE day?
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Brébino
post Apr 18 2017, 11:26 AM
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Tbh it wouldn't shock me if Jeremy still doesn't willingly resign even after losing this.

This seems so obviously like it'll just be another, probably larger, Tory majority. But then when do we ever get the 'obvious' result in elections any more. Corbyn for PM ~
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Sceryl_Streep
post Apr 18 2017, 11:32 AM
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YAY for yet another trip to the polls *.*

(though living in a super safe Sinn Fein seat kind of takes the fun out of it a little)
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Liаm
post Apr 18 2017, 11:34 AM
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Lmao imagine if he didn't quit!! At this rate Corbyn will be like 99 in a nursing home and still be clinging to his Labour leadership even if they became like BNP and only challenged in like 3 constituencies
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Sceryl_Streep
post Apr 18 2017, 11:34 AM
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Really, the only properly positive thing I can think about all this is that *hopefully* Corbyn will be dispensed with and the country can have a meaningful and effective opposition. But knowing him he probably won't even DO THAT RIGHT.
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Klaus
post Apr 18 2017, 11:34 AM
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When we don't get the obvious result though, it has always favoured the Right (Con majority, Leave, Trump). The most unexpected outcome might be that Lib Dems become relevant again.

Thing is, even if Corbyn actually resigns, the last two leadership contests have shown that there's not a strong leader in Labour who is prepared to be the leader unless someone who is currently unelected is that.
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