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General Election Prediction
What will the result be?
Labour win (any majority) [ 2 ] ** [5.00%]
Hung parliament (Labour largest) [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Hung parliament (Tory largest) [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
Tory majority (20 or less) [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
Tory majority (21-40) [ 10 ] ** [25.00%]
Tory majority (41-60) [ 9 ] ** [22.50%]
Tory majority (61-80) [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
Tory majority (81-100) [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Tory majority (>100) [ 2 ] ** [5.00%]
Total Votes: 41
  
vidcapper
post Jun 4 2017, 08:57 AM
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Cards on the table time...

NB. Please predict what you think the result will actually be, rather than what you want it to be. wink.gif
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Klaus
post Jun 4 2017, 09:08 AM
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Tory majority (21-40)

Substantially less than I had originall envisaged at the start of the election.
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Doctor Blind
post Jun 4 2017, 09:33 AM
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Conservative majority of 78

*'peak SNP' reached as they decline to around 48 (from 56) - all eight are gains for the Tories
*Labour narrowly keep their only seat in Scotland
*Labour 'only' fall to around 210 seats - Cons up to 365ish.

Also I think the Liberal Democrats will make a few gains, in spite of current polling support, as they're likely to pick up some of the more remain heavy constituencies - e.g. Twickenham


This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Jun 4 2017, 09:38 AM
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vidcapper
post Jun 4 2017, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 4 2017, 10:33 AM) *
Also I think the Liberal Democrats will make a few gains, in spite of current polling support, as they're likely to pick up some of the more remain heavy constituencies - e.g. Twickenham


One of their prime targets is here - Cheltenham.

In the 2015 GE, The Tories had a 12% lead, but in last month's local elections the LD's had about a 13% lead, albeit on a much lower turnout than the GE.

Traditionally the Tories do better here in GE's than local elections though, so it could be close... unsure.gif
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commonsense
post Jun 4 2017, 09:54 AM
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Tory majority, 41-60.
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Doctor Blind
post Jun 4 2017, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 4 2017, 10:49 AM) *
One of their prime targets is here - Cheltenham.

In the 2015 GE, The Tories had a 12% lead, but in last month's local elections the LD's had about a 13% lead, albeit on a much lower turnout than the GE.

Traditionally the Tories do better here in GE's than local elections though, so it could be close... unsure.gif


Cheltenham was around 56.2% remain, with UKIP not standing (7.1% in 2015) I'd say CON HOLD has the smart money...


This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Jun 4 2017, 09:57 AM
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 4 2017, 10:09 AM
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Conservatives will get 370 (or thereabouts)
Labour will get 200 (or thereabouts)
SNP will get 50 (or thereabouts)
Lib Dems no more than 10 seats (or thereabouts)
Plaid Cymru get 2
NI Parties - 18 (Sinn Fein to gain 1 seat, UUP to lose 1 seat)

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Iz~
post Jun 4 2017, 10:18 AM
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Tory majority of about 25. Small gains but not a wipeout.
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Rooney
post Jun 4 2017, 10:22 AM
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Tory majority of 61-80, I reckon a figure of roughly 72-74.
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vidcapper
post Jun 4 2017, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 4 2017, 10:55 AM) *
Cheltenham was around 56.2% remain, with UKIP not standing (7.1% in 2015) I'd say CON HOLD has the smart money...


Just as well my vote will count towards Tewkesbury, as I would have been pretty pee'd off at not having a UKIP candidate. rolleyes.gif
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Bairlas
post Jun 4 2017, 11:17 AM
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I think a mixed night for the progress alliance. Greens stay at 1, Plaid up to 4 but the SNP down to 45 as the Unionist parties rally round the Tories with the nationalist vote share remaining in the high 40's nationally but areas where they are in the 30's will be the seats they lose (borders, NE fife to LibDems, couple affluent areas in greater Glasgow like east Dumbartonshire, Aberdeenshire and moray, Perthshire)

SNP will suffer at least 2 Portillo moments as a result of heavily targeting by Tories against some of the nationalists most outspoken MPs like Angus Robertson who regularly does more damage in 2 questions at PMQ than Corbyn with his 6

Think LibDems will remain the 4th party at 15 seats. Tories will get an increased majority of 25-30.
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vidcapper
post Jun 4 2017, 01:57 PM
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If you want to see a surrary of all polls, try

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39869459
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Sir Hissington
post Jun 4 2017, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE
Also I think the Liberal Democrats will make a few gains, in spite of current polling support, as they're likely to pick up some of the more remain heavy constituencies - e.g. Twickenham
I think the Liberal Democrats won't do as well as they could have done because of Tim Farron's refusal to answer questions about whether gay sex is a sin. Although tactical voting to keep out the Tories by Remain supporters in constituencies where Labour is in third place to Tories and Lib Dems may benefit them.

QUOTE
Sinn Fein to gain 1 seat, DUP to lose 1 seat


I am guessing you are referring to Fermanagh and South Tyrone as a gain for Sinn Fein, as that one is the most likely gain for them. South Down is a possibility for a gain for them too but I am hoping this doesn't happen to keep the SDLP strong enough.

As for the DUP I assume you are guessing East Belfast as a loss to Alliance, although they have a good chance of regaining South Antrim, but I hope they don't as I like a multiparty representation.



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Brett-Butler
post Jun 4 2017, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(Dusty Muffin @ Jun 4 2017, 03:22 PM) *
I am guessing you are referring to Fermanagh and South Tyrone as a gain for Sinn Fein, as that one is the most likely gain for them. South Down is a possibility for a gain for them too but I am hoping this doesn't happen to keep the SDLP strong enough.

As for the DUP I assume you are guessing East Belfast as a loss to Alliance, although they have a good chance of regaining South Antrim, but I hope they don't as I like a multiparty representation.


Indeed, I think that Fermanagh & South Tyrone will swing back to Sinn Fein in this election. I realise that's a mistake on my part, as I'd forgotten that it's held by the UUP rather than the DUP. I think East Belfast will still be held by the DUP, even with a strong Alliance candidate in Naomi Long. Can't see any other seats changing, but I think there'll be a few very tight races, like South Belfast (which I think the SDLP will hold by the skin of their teeth).
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Suedehead2
post Jun 4 2017, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(Dusty Muffin @ Jun 4 2017, 03:22 PM) *
I think the Liberal Democrats won't do as well as they could have done because of Tim Farron's refusal to answer questions about whether gay sex is a sin. Although tactical voting to keep out the Tories by Remain supporters in constituencies where Labour is in third place to Tories and Lib Dems may benefit them.
I am guessing you are referring to Fermanagh and South Tyrone as a gain for Sinn Fein, as that one is the most likely gain for them. South Down is a possibility for a gain for them too but I am hoping this doesn't happen to keep the SDLP strong enough.

As for the DUP I assume you are guessing East Belfast as a loss to Alliance, although they have a good chance of regaining South Antrim, but I hope they don't as I like a multiparty representation.

Farron has answered those questions. He has said very clearly that he does not think gay sex is a sin. That said, he should have answered them earlier than he did and pointed to his record of support for LGBT+ rights.
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Envoirment
post Jun 4 2017, 03:07 PM
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Tory Majority (21-40)

Slightly larger majority, but no where near as big as expected at the start of the campaigning. Wouldn't be surprised if they ended up with a slightly higher majority in the 41-60 range though.

Labour will manage to keep most of their seats, around 200-220, which'll be a big victory considering where things started.

SNP will lose 8-10 seats, but retain a large share of the vote in Scotland.

Greens will retain 1 seat but their voting share decrease.

Lib Dems will manage to gain a seat of two to around 10 with their vote share about the same or slightly higher than last election.

UKIP will lose their one seat and their voting share decrease to less than 5%.

Will be interesting to see the final sets of polls before election day.


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Chez Wombat
post Jun 4 2017, 03:08 PM
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I reckon a Tory Majority of 21-40. Certainly not as high as I envisioned, but then Theresa May seems to have been outright trying to destroy her party here.
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LexC
post Jun 4 2017, 04:20 PM
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I'd probably predict something like this at the moment:

A Tory majority of around 60-80 thanks mainly to the UKIP - Tory switchers. They make big gains from Labour in Wales, the North East and the West Midlands but Labour manage to just hold them off in big metropolitan remain voting areas like Brighton & Hove, The Wirral and London.

The SNP fall back about 10 seats in Scotland (though it must be said, virtually any party in that situation would fall back a bit after a big wave election like 2015) thanks to unionist tactical voting. The Tories are the main beneficiaries of this in the borders and Aberdeenshire but the Lib Dems also take East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edinburgh West. Labour hold Edinburgh South and I wouldn't be surprised if they take East Lothian as well.

The Lib Dems don't make any inroads in the South West but manage to get a few seats in Scotland and get Vince Cable and Ed Davey returned in South West London.

The Greens hold Brighton but fall back everywhere else, UKIP get wiped off the map, Plaid mostly stand still. No seats in Northern Ireland change hands.
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Iz~
post Jun 4 2017, 04:50 PM
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QUOTE(LexC♀ @ Jun 4 2017, 05:20 PM) *
I'd probably predict something like this at the moment:

A Tory majority of around 60-80 thanks mainly to the UKIP - Tory switchers. They make big gains from Labour in Wales, the North East and the West Midlands but Labour manage to just hold them off in big metropolitan remain voting areas like Brighton & Hove, The Wirral and London.

The SNP fall back about 10 seats in Scotland (though it must be said, virtually any party in that situation would fall back a bit after a big wave election like 2015) thanks to unionist tactical voting. The Tories are the main beneficiaries of this in the borders and Aberdeenshire but the Lib Dems also take East Dunbartonshire, NE Fife and Edinburgh West. Labour hold Edinburgh South and I wouldn't be surprised if they take East Lothian as well.

The Lib Dems don't make any inroads in the South West but manage to get a few seats in Scotland and get Vince Cable and Ed Davey returned in South West London.

The Greens hold Brighton but fall back everywhere else, UKIP get wiped off the map, Plaid mostly stand still. No seats in Northern Ireland change hands.


I can see what you're saying about Scotland, indeed that's where I suspect a lot of the extra Tory seats will come from but I don't see a lot coming from UKIP voters leaving. Most of their second-places are Tory safe seats in the south or Labour safe seats in the north-east where it was easy to get a second place anyway, and anywhere where they've made inroads in marginals, the UKIP voters are surely more likely to disperse into either party. The UKIP loss I think will mostly be a neutral factor.

For the South West I'd say yes, mostly blue, especially rural Devon and Dorset but any of Plymouth's two could switch if Labour have any form of good night at all, that whole city is on a knife's edge. I'm also fascinated by Bristol West, a top 3 of Labour-Green-Lib Dem in 2015 after being a Lib Dem hold, if only more seats across the country were like that.
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Doctor Blind
post Jun 4 2017, 05:23 PM
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jun 4 2017, 04:07 PM) *
UKIP will lose their one seat and their voting share decrease to less than 5%.


Which seat is this? Since March they've had zero MPs.
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