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> GE Turnout prediction
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Turnout
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vidcapper
post Jun 8 2017, 09:41 AM
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What do you think it'll be?

NB it was 66.1% in 2015, and 72.2% for the Referendum.
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 8 2017, 10:14 AM
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As it's a pointless supplementary election, I've gone for a shite turn out.
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burbe
post Jun 8 2017, 10:18 AM
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I would've predicted an awful turnout at the start of the campaign, but I think renewed interest in Labour will persuade more people to vote as it's closer than originally thought. I think we could match 2015!
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Klaus
post Jun 8 2017, 10:20 AM
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67%, bit higher than last time.
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jun 8 2017, 10:23 AM
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I put 68% - arouns that and just up to 70 max
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jun 8 2017, 01:20 PM
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Dunno how accurate, bu some internet sites reporting huge queues across the country and especially in London.
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Steve201
post Jun 8 2017, 01:32 PM
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I assume that's in strong labour areas by what I read - only Mike Smithson stated they were big ques all the rest are pro Corbynites!
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jun 8 2017, 01:35 PM
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Now I REAALLY don't know if this is true, but a couple articles by fellow Corbynistas said there are reports of Tory voters avoiding eye contact with NHS staff in the queues laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Willy's Tears: Jun 8 2017, 01:35 PM
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LexC
post Jun 8 2017, 01:56 PM
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I really don't know. I think there's certainly a lot more energy around this campaign than I thought there'd be but I just can't shake the feeling that most people will be a bit fatigued with voting (especially so in Scotland at this point) so I'd guess around 60-62%
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Johnkm
post Jun 8 2017, 02:04 PM
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I think about 64%
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vidcapper
post Jun 8 2017, 02:20 PM
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ISTM a higher turnout would help Labour, as it would presumably mean the younger generation had voted in numbers for once... wink.gif
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danG
post Jun 8 2017, 02:42 PM
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QUOTE(Willy @ Jun 8 2017, 02:35 PM) *
Now I REAALLY don't know if this is true, but a couple articles by fellow Corbynistas said there are reports of Tory voters avoiding eye contact with NHS staff in the queues laugh.gif
Not true. It comes from my favourite satirical news website, NewsThump

http://newsthump.com/2017/06/08/tory-voter...station-queues/
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Harve
post Jun 8 2017, 04:53 PM
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I'd expect 62-64% but I could be way off.

Lord Ashcroft thinks that a high turnout favours Labour rather than the Tories. I would have expected it to be the other way round. Does anyone know wtf is going on?


This post has been edited by Harve: Jun 8 2017, 05:18 PM
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jun 8 2017, 06:14 PM
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Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 8 2017, 07:51 PM
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Historically, a higher turnout has tended to favour Labour. Tory supporters tend to be more likely to vote.
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vidcapper
post Jun 9 2017, 05:46 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 8 2017, 03:20 PM) *
ISTM a higher turnout would help Labour, as it would presumably mean the younger generation had voted in numbers for once... wink.gif


QUOTE(Willy @ Jun 8 2017, 07:14 PM) *
Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.


QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jun 8 2017, 08:51 PM) *
Historically, a higher turnout has tended to favour Labour. Tory supporters tend to be more likely to vote.


Hey, something we all agree on, at last! smile.gif
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jun 9 2017, 06:07 AM
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QUOTE(Willy @ Jun 8 2017, 11:23 AM) *
I put 68% - arouns that and just up to 70 max


#psychicf***inbeaver
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Harve
post Jun 9 2017, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(Willy @ Jun 8 2017, 07:14 PM) *
Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.

Ah, you're right actually!
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