BuzzJack
Entertainment Discussion

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register | Help )

Latest Site News
2 Pages V   1 2 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> How long...
Track this topic - Email this topic - Print this topic - Download this topic - Subscribe to this forum
Next general election
You cannot see the results of the poll until you have voted. Please login and cast your vote to see the results of this poll.
Total Votes: 21
Guests cannot vote 
vidcapper
post Jun 9 2017, 10:27 AM
Post #1
Paul Hyett
******
Group: Members
Posts: 19,084
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


... before we're stuck with another General Election? sad.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Jun 9 2017, 10:30 AM
Post #2
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 8,516
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


Less than a year, which would make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
vidcapper
post Jun 9 2017, 10:34 AM
Post #3
Paul Hyett
******
Group: Members
Posts: 19,084
Member No.: 364
Joined: 4-April 06
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jun 9 2017, 11:30 AM) *
Less than a year, which would make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliament Act.


Again! rolleyes.gif

I bet the Tories will be desperate to push through those boundary changes now - I suspect they'd have won yesterday if they'd already have happened...


This post has been edited by vidcapper: Jun 9 2017, 10:35 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Harve
post Jun 9 2017, 10:37 AM
Post #4
cultural marxist
******
Group: Members
Posts: 15,878
Member No.: 4,718
Joined: 3-November 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


After Brexit. I imagine 2020.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
popchartfreak
post Jun 9 2017, 11:39 AM
Post #5
BuzzJack Platinum Member
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 10,113
Member No.: 17,376
Joined: 18-July 12
   No Gallery Pics
 


6months. depends on how much they are willing to go for soft Brexit now, and keep on eating that humble pie. laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Suedehead2
post Jun 9 2017, 11:52 AM
Post #6
BuzzJack Legend
*******
Group: Admin.
Posts: 22,431
Member No.: 3,272
Joined: 13-April 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


I think an election to coincide with the German elections is a possibility. However, the Tories won't be too keen on the idea of another election with May at the helm. Perhaps they'll vote against an early dissolution laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Steve201
post Jun 9 2017, 02:18 PM
Post #7
Shakin Stevens
******
Group: Members
Posts: 17,938
Member No.: 5,138
Joined: 29-December 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


I fear if a new Tory leader emerges over the next year we could have one soon enough and could be a bigger majority if they install a popular leader!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Envoirment
post Jun 9 2017, 02:47 PM
Post #8
BuzzJack Gold Member
*****
Group: Artist Mod
Posts: 4,935
Member No.: 10,030
Joined: 21-November 09
   No Gallery Pics
 


I'm going for 2022. Another election would weaken the conservatives further, so don't think they'd want to risk it, especially with brexit negotiations coming up.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Liаm
post Jun 9 2017, 03:36 PM
Post #9
Balegdah
*******
Group: Entertainment Mod
Posts: 49,243
Member No.: 10,139
Joined: 7-December 09
 


Yeah, see I think she'll just stick it out now, at least until 2020 when Brexit has happened and things are a bit more stable. With the DUP buoyance, she has her majority anyway, it might be a bit difficult as they clash on welfare but I don't think the parties differ enough for it to cause more of a stir than the election disaster already did. If she's not gonna leave from that, I can't see her leaving if she's challenged on welfare a bit.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PeteFromLeeds
post Jun 9 2017, 03:42 PM
Post #10
All songs should chart like the NHS Choir (feat. Quavo)
******
Group: Members
Posts: 6,206
Member No.: 23,247
Joined: 6-May 16
   No Gallery Pics
 


As long as it's after 23rd December 2017 I'll be fine wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Envoirment
post Jun 9 2017, 03:49 PM
Post #11
BuzzJack Gold Member
*****
Group: Artist Mod
Posts: 4,935
Member No.: 10,030
Joined: 21-November 09
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Liаm @ Jun 9 2017, 04:36 PM) *
Yeah, see I think she'll just stick it out now, at least until 2020 when Brexit has happened and things are a bit more stable. With the DUP buoyance, she has her majority anyway, it might be a bit difficult as they clash on welfare but I don't think the parties differ enough for it to cause more of a stir than the election disaster already did. If she's not gonna leave from that, I can't see her leaving if she's challenged on welfare a bit.


After looking up about it, NI has devolved powers in reards to Social and Health services/Housing/Social security/Education etc - Link. So the Tory government could reduce the triple lock to a double lock and make free school meals means tested in England quite readily without affecting NI. Unless I'm understanding NI's position wrongly.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Iz~
post Jun 9 2017, 04:45 PM
Post #12
consentes dei Juno Jupiter Minerva
*******
Group: Global Mod
Posts: 25,291
Member No.: 12,929
Joined: 3-February 11
 


No chance this government lasts until 2022. I thought 2015 would be tough to make it to 5 years with such a slim majority, they've now lost almost two-thirds of that majority even IF the DUP toe the line as if they were Tories, a hard ask in of itself. They and rebellious backbenchers will frustrate the weak-looking government, and one major falling out and it's gone. The coming years will have more than their fair share of opportunities for that to happen.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Suedehead2
post Jun 9 2017, 05:09 PM
Post #13
BuzzJack Legend
*******
Group: Admin.
Posts: 22,431
Member No.: 3,272
Joined: 13-April 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Envoirment @ Jun 9 2017, 04:49 PM) *
After looking up about it, NI has devolved powers in reards to Social and Health services/Housing/Social security/Education etc - Link. So the Tory government could reduce the triple lock to a double lock and make free school meals means tested in England quite readily without affecting NI. Unless I'm understanding NI's position wrongly.

Nothing is devolved to NI at the moment because there is no administration.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Silas
post Jun 9 2017, 05:28 PM
Post #14
Surfing in paradise
********
Group: Entertainment Mod
Posts: 59,342
Member No.: 3,474
Joined: 24-May 07
 


Indeed, the DUP are frustrating efforts to install a new power sharing government at Stormont so they are facing the prospect of Direct Rule (which would suit the DUP as part of the Tory administration) or a 3rd Assembly election since 2015.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Steve201
post Jun 9 2017, 06:01 PM
Post #15
Shakin Stevens
******
Group: Members
Posts: 17,938
Member No.: 5,138
Joined: 29-December 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


I've a few points/questions - will the DUP sit on the government benches?

How many by-elections were there between 2015-17? Quite a few from memory - each one during this parliament will be hugely impacting.
Surely any Secretary of State for NI will surely not be able to chair talks on the restoration of stormont - not that a Tory SOS would ever have been neutral as history has shown.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Harve
post Jun 9 2017, 07:15 PM
Post #16
cultural marxist
******
Group: Members
Posts: 15,878
Member No.: 4,718
Joined: 3-November 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jun 9 2017, 05:45 PM) *
No chance this government lasts until 2022. I thought 2015 would be tough to make it to 5 years with such a slim majority, they've now lost almost two-thirds of that majority even IF the DUP toe the line as if they were Tories, a hard ask in of itself. They and rebellious backbenchers will frustrate the weak-looking government, and one major falling out and it's gone. The coming years will have more than their fair share of opportunities for that to happen.

I'm not so sure that rebellious backbenchers will make their voices heard given what has happened to the Labour party in the last two years and knowing full well that any dissent will lead to an easy wipeout. Let's see what the likes of Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke and (non-MP) George Osborne have to say. The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions. It's very telling just how quickly they've been able to form a government when you compare it to 2010.

I can't stand the thought of the Tories lasting until 2022, but if they do it will be because they have governed well (more on their own terms and their 13.5 million voters than our terms or other parties...). Now that we've shown that appetite for a hard right government isn't particularly strong, especially on economic issues, then a strong and stable (!) government might not be the end of the world. Tory hubris in the face of an emboldened opposition can't cause them to make a third mistake, right?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Brett-Butler
post Jun 9 2017, 07:53 PM
Post #17
Howdy, disco citizens.
******
Group: Moderator
Posts: 8,516
Member No.: 10,455
Joined: 16-January 10
   No Gallery Pics
 


QUOTE(Harve @ Jun 9 2017, 08:15 PM) *
The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions.


The Conservatives do stand candidates against the DUP in Northern Ireland, but it's unlikely for them to win more than a handful of votes over here.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Houdini
post Jun 9 2017, 09:15 PM
Post #18
BuzzJack Gold Member
*****
Group: Members
Posts: 3,446
Member No.: 21,725
Joined: 4-April 15
   No Gallery Pics
 


I went for 12-17 months.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Iz~
post Jun 9 2017, 10:31 PM
Post #19
consentes dei Juno Jupiter Minerva
*******
Group: Global Mod
Posts: 25,291
Member No.: 12,929
Joined: 3-February 11
 


QUOTE(Harve @ Jun 9 2017, 08:15 PM) *
I'm not so sure that rebellious backbenchers will make their voices heard given what has happened to the Labour party in the last two years and knowing full well that any dissent will lead to an easy wipeout. Let's see what the likes of Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke and (non-MP) George Osborne have to say. The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions. It's very telling just how quickly they've been able to form a government when you compare it to 2010.

I can't stand the thought of the Tories lasting until 2022, but if they do it will be because they have governed well (more on their own terms and their 13.5 million voters than our terms or other parties...). Now that we've shown that appetite for a hard right government isn't particularly strong, especially on economic issues, then a strong and stable (!) government might not be the end of the world. Tory hubris in the face of an emboldened opposition can't cause them to make a third mistake, right?


We'll see. If you're right that would be good but they're going to have to be very careful about what they put forward for a vote, equally, as well as being afraid, each backbencher will have quite a bit of power in their hands should they choose to use it, and I don't think beyond the short-term that there's going to be unwavering loyalty to May, they'll surely not want her to fight the next election so as the halfway point approaches would be the absolute limit on her premiership I'd say, and the appointing of a replacement itself would cause some instability. However if she goes peacefully and a well-liked replacement comes in to hold it together, I'd say it has a better chance.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Steve201
post Jun 10 2017, 12:09 AM
Post #20
Shakin Stevens
******
Group: Members
Posts: 17,938
Member No.: 5,138
Joined: 29-December 07
   No Gallery Pics
 


It was said that the speed at which the tories and Dup have formed a government compared to 2010 is telling - I think the opposite it seems they have obviously just agreed to support the PMs Queens Speech/budget by the speed things happened and it can't be compared to 2010 because it isn't a formal coalition government it's a minority government which is a completely different arrangement. As I said above they clearly have agreed to accept the Budget and that's it so I can imagine we will either have a zombie administration that has a lame duck PM who tried to pass very little administration and just focuses on brexit negotiations because anything which creates debate has the potential to fall at party level with the need for agreement if the likes of Ken Clarke or Anna Soubrey for example or else will fall in the Lords dominated by non tories.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post


2 Pages V   1 2 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:


 

Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 27th June 2017 - 08:56 PM