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> PREDICT: Louis Tomlinson - Back To You, (feat. Digital Farm Animals & Bebe Rexha) | Where will it debut?
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mdh
post Jul 15 2017, 08:54 PM
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So Louis releases his second single named Back To You on Friday - it features Bebe Rexha and Digital Farm Animals. Where do we think it can debut officially in its first chart week?

I feel like it's going to be #1, not gonna lie. There's obviously the massive 1D fanbase who'll all be downloading it no doubt, and then there's the physical single also out Friday.

1D stans on Twitter are really rallying to get this to #1, there's a promo page set up which is actually a brilliant idea, and that's been getting a lot of attention. I can only see it going straight in at #1 tbh, considering it'll only need ~55k to do so.

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ElectroBoy
post Jul 15 2017, 09:17 PM
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Surprised fans are rallying behind Louis of all members!

Top 20 for both - low top 10 peak overall
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JosephGutierrez
post Jul 15 2017, 09:20 PM
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Top 5 debut officially
Top 50 debut on Spotify (in the low 20s or 30s I think), followed by a quick climb

Certainly seems to have a lot going for it!
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danG
post Jul 15 2017, 10:41 PM
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can't see it debuting at #1, though I suppose it could climb there if it's a strong song.

Top 5 with a top 40 Spotify debut.
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Court
post Jul 16 2017, 03:57 AM
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I think the physical release will really help him and I'm sure that Louis and Simon Cowell both know that and thats why they're doing it. I don't see any other reason to release a CD single in 2017 when they're basically obsolete. I'm still not sure if it can manage the Spotify support to go number 1 but it'll probably reach the top 3.
His first effort sold 31,000 downloads and managed 47.6k in combined sales. Just Hold On had a highly publicized X Factor performance the week of release but was also missing a day of sales so I think this one can do a similar number with the added physical copies but probably less streaming.
Of course if the song turns out to be incredible then it could manage to really take off and snatch the #1 but based on the snippets I don't believe its going to be anything that special.
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cqmerqn
post Jul 16 2017, 05:36 AM
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Proof of there being a physical release?
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Jay ☆
post Jul 16 2017, 06:58 AM
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QUOTE(cq(uavo)merqn @ Jul 16 2017, 06:36 AM) *
Proof of there being a physical release?

Here - https://store.louis-tomlinson.com/products/...o-you-cd-single happy.gif
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cqmerqn
post Jul 16 2017, 07:01 AM
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QUOTE(Jay ☆ @ Jul 16 2017, 07:58 AM) *

Ah thanks. There is probably only about 100 though as it's limited edition.
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Jay ☆
post Jul 16 2017, 07:26 AM
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I'd imagine it's a lot more than 100! ohmy.gif It's been on pre-order for a week now and it's still not sold out, and from what I can tell it's available worldwide rather than just the UK. I assume there'll be a few thousand to make it worthwhile.
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cqmerqn
post Jul 16 2017, 07:28 AM
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All signed ohmy.gif
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mdh
post Jul 16 2017, 07:54 AM
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The reason I think it could make #1 is because Take That sold 12k physical copies in their first week - and surely Louis will be able to match that? So assuming he sells 10k in his first week, he'll only need around ~43k from streams and downloads.

Considering Just Hold On sold around 31k downloads, that means he'll need around 12k from streams - and that's definitely doable, looking at all the hype there is on Twitter for it.
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ElectroBoy
post Jul 16 2017, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(mdh @ Jul 16 2017, 08:54 AM) *
The reason I think it could make #1 is because Take That sold 12k physical copies in their first week - and surely Louis will be able to match that? So assuming he sells 10k in his first week, he'll only need around ~43k from streams and downloads.

Considering Just Hold On sold around 31k downloads, that means he'll need around 12k from streams - and that's definitely doable, looking at all the hype there is on Twitter for it.


Just Hold On was propped up by an X Factor final performance though
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mdh
post Jul 16 2017, 07:59 AM
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QUOTE(ElectroBoy @ Jul 16 2017, 08:56 AM) *
Just Hold On was propped up by an X Factor final performance though

Still, Back To You will have a full week of sales, and it has a lot more pre-release hype from fans so it'll at least be able to do a number close to 30k.
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danG
post Jul 16 2017, 08:07 AM
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will Louis really sell as many physicals as Take That did though? I can't see it happening myself, TT's fanbase are far more likely to buy physicals.
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Mart!n
post Jul 16 2017, 08:22 AM
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Physical sales don't amount to anything these days, (unless its a charity single), as said above you can't compare TT to Louie. It really depends how well the current number one is selling, I say top 5 at least anyway the track is not even out to judge how good it is.
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d22ghj
post Jul 16 2017, 09:20 AM
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They aren't guaranteed success. The Zedd Liam Payne track isn't doing anything, for instance.
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Lenny
post Jul 16 2017, 09:48 AM
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I went for top 20. He's the weakest of the group without others to prop him up - although that said all he needs is a good/catchy song and some good autotune and he's sorted really.

He sounded constipated on "Just Hold On"
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Mart!n
post Jul 16 2017, 10:07 AM
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I agree, he does seem to be the weakest of the group, than again I didn't like Just Hold On, I just think the single was forced on him at the time prior a day when he lost his mother when he actually performed it live, you could actually see, he wasn't really in the right headspace to perform it but you have to give him credit for his performance.

With the right single and sound it could take off.

It seems most of 1Ds solo acts are jumping on collaborations with other artists, if you have the right combo, he could get a decent size hit, Liam Payne has really done well for himself with his first track with Quavo. On the other end of the spectrum Get Low is rather a mess.
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Tawdry Hepburn
post Jul 16 2017, 10:14 AM
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I'm gonna say a #5 debut (and perhaps peak:?)

Basically mirroring '2U' anyway.
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ThePensmith
post Jul 16 2017, 01:23 PM
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I'm surprised many people are pegging this as a future #1. He realistically has not got a hope in hell of long standing solo success. He really didn't do himself any favours with that Observer interview the other week either. Top 20 debut, low top 10 if he's very lucky, with a short chart run thereafter propped up by 59p reductions.
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