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> Q3/4 Predictions 2017
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ThePensmith
post Aug 6 2017, 09:22 PM
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I know there was a similar sort of topic to this last year, so I thought it'd be nice to get one for this year going as we're now into the last five months of 2017.

I'll get the ball rolling with a few of mine:

- Sam Smith will release his second album, but it'll be to this year what Emeli Sande's 'Long Live the Angels' was to last year.
- Taylor Swift will pull a Beyoncé with her new album with a midweek/overnight release. First single will be some sassathon bit towards whoever she was seen dating last and will stay at number one for two months.
- Jason Manford's musical theatre album will be the shock bestseller of the Christmas period a la Alfie Boe and Michael Ball last year.
- Niall Horan will do a Melanie C 'Northern Star' with his solo album, outselling Zayn and Harry's efforts.
- Rita Ora will push back her second album. Again.
- Louisa Johnson and Matt Terry both release their albums to a top 10 debut - but only just - and virtual indifference thereafter. The 'We regret that they and SyCo have parted ways' speeches come first week of January 2018, tops.
- A DVD/CD package of the 'One Love Manchester' concert will be released, a la Live8 in 2005.


This post has been edited by ThePensmith: Aug 6 2017, 10:08 PM
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JosephStyles
post Aug 6 2017, 09:32 PM
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Definitely agreed re. Taylor, she's gonna dominate Q4 I think!

I could see Jason Manford's album doing more of a Bradley Walsh than an Alfie Boe, still very respectable sales in the end. Niall's album will depend on promo, he'll easily outsell Zayn but Harry could still get a boost when Two Ghosts impacts, so time will tell. Not sure I can see his opening week being as big as Harry's though, despite Q4!

Louisa's album will probably be released in like September, although I can see them waiting til next year for Matt (and I hope they do, Q4 is a terrible time to launch a new artist's debut album imo).

I think Rita's album will actually get released, accompanied by an X Factor performance, and whilst it won't do as well as the debut, I could see it doing a Zara/Dua album-wise maybe.
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cqmerqn
post Aug 6 2017, 09:45 PM
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Matt Terry will have a solo hit single
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ThePensmith
post Aug 6 2017, 09:51 PM
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I think what I meant to say re: Niall is that he'll outsell with sustained sales over a longer period. Certainly if the rumours of an Ellie Goulding duet for his 3rd single are true that'll set the album up well!

It's definitely gonna be an interesting Q4 I think. I know that Olly Murs won't be releasing anything new or re-releasing his last album as he's taking a break after this current tour of his finishes (save for the Kungs record he currently sings on).

I think Busted will probably have their 4th album ready to go going on James Bourne's recent Tweets and the fact they have a huge show at Royal Albert Hall lined up in October.


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missingyou
post Aug 7 2017, 06:52 AM
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Mollie King will get a top 10 off the back of Strictly and Cheryl will drop a single
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StillJupiter
post Aug 7 2017, 07:39 AM
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I don't feel Taylor will dominate that much just by the relative success of other women lately. The last real solo female success was Adele in 2015 and even the smash of Hello only held #1 for 3 weeks despite being predicted to run for months and months. Taylor runs a similar risk; everyone buying it for HUGE sales in the first week or two, and then everyone already having it so sales dropping off and streaming having to hold her up. If she has it. If she doesn't have Spotify, she'll drop off even quicker.

Louisa will launch with X Factor support and probably with as much promo circuit they can manage in a last-ditch effort to get her a success. They'll be modelling off Dua Lipa now who really took two years and a bit to get going. If that doesn't get her she'll be quietly dropped, although might be able to snatch another contract or lead a girl group or something.

Cheryl and Liam to collab at some point. Trite as it would be, I can see them doing a Katie Price-and-Peter Andre tribute to their kid as a Q4 ballad in an attempt to reignite both their careers.

Bebe Rexha will keep trying, bless her.

Clean Bandit will snatch another #1 or two before the year is out. The cellist will continue to push herself to the front and dance in their videos.

Anne-Marie will score another solo top 10.

If Pink releases in Q4, she'll get an easy top 5 album or possibly #1, and almost definitely another #1 in the US unless she's unlucky to go up against a surprise release.

Camila Cabello and Fifth Harmony will both do worse than expected which will raise questions over their future.

Someone really unexpected will have a decent sized hit in around October or November. Either someone who's been out of the game for ages, or someone that's been disctinctly low-tier up to now.


This post has been edited by 360Jupiter: Aug 7 2017, 07:40 AM
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commonsense
post Aug 7 2017, 07:55 AM
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QUOTE(ThePensmith @ Aug 6 2017, 10:22 PM) *
- Jason Manford's musical theatre album will be the shock bestseller of the Christmas period a la Alfie Boe and Michael Ball last year.


Ball and Boe are back with another album this year though. They could nab the Xmas No.1 album again!

Roy Orbison gets the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra treatment this year so that could be big.


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smidsy101
post Aug 7 2017, 12:48 PM
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On the albums front...

I can see Taylor hitting #1 in the album chart around October then dropping and staying in the top-5 for a good couple of months around the Christmas period

Fifth Harmony and Camila will both debut around #10, then drop drastically and last 3/4 weeks in the top 100

The Script will nab #1 but tail off quickly

Foo Fighters & The Killers will debut at #1 and stick around for a few months in the top 40

Shania Twain will underperform massively, maybe even missing the top 10, as there's been no hype with the album or singles

Sam Smith will, as has been mentioned previously, be this years Emeli Sande

Liam Gallagher and Miley will most likely stick around in the charts up until Christmas

Rita will pull a Zara Larsson with the album, miss the top 5 but hang around the lower regions for a while

Avril Lavigne will come back and miss the top 10, disappearing after a couple of weeks

Christina Aguilera will push her album back another couple of years

Ella Henderson will come back and hit #1

Eminem will have one of the biggest selling albums of the Christmas period (if he releases as is predicted)

George Ezra will flop completely

Louisa Johnson will perform similarly to Fleur East, who will also attempt to relaunch herself and flop

P!nk and Paloma Faith will be hanging around the top 10 for months and months

Zayn and Liam will hold back until 2018
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RobBob
post Aug 7 2017, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE(missingyou @ Aug 7 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Mollie King will get a top 10 off the back of Strictly and Cheryl will drop a single

I admire your confidence.
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George.keh
post Aug 7 2017, 01:52 PM
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Any possibility of a Liam Payne or Louis Tomlinson album? I think Niall is highly likely
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JosephStyles
post Aug 7 2017, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(George.keh @ Aug 7 2017, 02:52 PM) *
Any possibility of a Liam Payne or Louis Tomlinson album? I think Niall is highly likely

Niall's album is confirmed for 20th October! No news of Liam or Louis yet.
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iain
post Aug 7 2017, 02:19 PM
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Kylie is supposed to be releasing an album in Q4 which could go either way really. Kylie Christmas sold surprisingly well (130k) - more than Gaga/Britney/Madonna etc, and that had limited time to sell, though obviously sales would be low in Q1 anyway. Maybe she will pull a Rick Astley.

Pink will be interesting. I'm not sure she has much of an inbuilt fanbase, so a lot will depend on radio play, so hopefully Radio 1 will get behind her.
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Houdini
post Aug 7 2017, 02:22 PM
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Despacito will still be number one.
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JosephStyles
post Aug 7 2017, 02:22 PM
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P!nk has a Live Lounge special on Radio 1 in September, I think that pretty much guarantees support! biggrin.gif
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Shaphne
post Aug 7 2017, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(iain @ Aug 7 2017, 03:19 PM) *
Kylie is supposed to be releasing an album in Q4 which could go either way really. Kylie Christmas sold surprisingly well (130k) - more than Gaga/Britney/Madonna etc, and that had limited time to sell, though obviously sales would be low in Q1 anyway. Maybe she will pull a Rick Astley.

Pink will be interesting. I'm not sure she has much of an inbuilt fanbase, so a lot will depend on radio play, so hopefully Radio 1 will get behind her.


She might be waiting till Spring 2018 now. She's in no hurry which bodes well as that was the same deal with Light Years.

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John-James
post Aug 7 2017, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE(ThePensmith @ Aug 6 2017, 10:22 PM) *
- Rita Ora will push back her second album. Again.

This one has just been confirmed rotf.gif
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liamk97
post Aug 7 2017, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(ThePensmith @ Aug 6 2017, 10:22 PM) *
- Jason Manford's musical theatre album will be the shock bestseller of the Christmas period a la Alfie Boe and Michael Ball last year.

Shocked that Alfie Boe/Michael Ball sold so well last year? I thought it was pretty inevitable. As Joseph says though, Jason's album will sell more like Bradley Walsh's; no way would he shift 600k.
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StillJupiter
post Aug 7 2017, 09:10 PM
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QUOTE(smidsy101 @ Aug 7 2017, 01:48 PM) *
Louisa Johnson will perform similarly to Fleur East, who will also attempt to relaunch herself and flop


Omg can't believe I forgot to make a prediction for Flop East! I'm hoping for either a suspiciously-similar sequel to Sax that's heralded as a new direction that's more her, or some kind of awful X Factor collab track with another golden child like 5AM or Honey G.

Or she could be the duet at the X Factor final this year. I hope that happens just to have the experience of watching her intro video of her achievements.
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White Mustang
post Aug 7 2017, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(missingyou @ Aug 7 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Mollie King will get a top 10 off the back of Strictly and Cheryl will drop a single


Is this satire?
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Lenny
post Aug 7 2017, 11:13 PM
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Contrary to what everyone seems to be predicting, I don't see Sam Smith flopping. I expect another big era, this time around anyway.
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