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> Samantha's Oscars 2017 Bold Predictions, #15-#1 Happening Now | #40-#16 Up
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post Aug 16 2017, 12:22 AM
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Hey guys and welcome to a personal countdown I will actually get done! This will be done before the film festivals start so it completely makes the predictions bold! I hope you find this interesting and I will explain my picks and it will be interesting to see if anyone else agrees and if any of these happen!

This will be my top 40 bold predictions and will start tomorrow!
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post Aug 16 2017, 09:04 PM
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Starting my first few in the next hour or so! Any predictions for my bold predictions?!
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post Aug 16 2017, 09:14 PM
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So this si for the current year and not like La La Land and stuff? If so then I forsee Mother! sadly doing well.
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post Aug 16 2017, 09:16 PM
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In terms of bold predictions, maybe Gal Gadot for Wonder Woman and Patrick Stewart from Logan? They have about a 1% chance of actually happening but I have seen them being discussed on awards forums in the last couple of months. Really excited for this countdown Sam - I'm already so invested in this year's awards season laugh.gif drama.gif
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post Aug 16 2017, 11:16 PM
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QUOTE(Shaphne @ Aug 16 2017, 10:14 PM) *
So this si for the current year and not like La La Land and stuff? If so then I forsee Mother! sadly doing well.

Yep this is for the current year!

To start us off *.*
A couple of non-related Oscar predictions:
Gal Gadot scores a Best Actress nomination at the Golden Globes
Harry Styles scores a Supporting Actor nomination at the Golden Globes

now let's get into the top 40!
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post Aug 16 2017, 11:30 PM
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40. Kirsten Dunst wins a lot of the early Critics Awards for Woodshock but goes nowhere in the main film awards (+ scoring no nominations for any of her work this year)

39. Joaquin Phoenix scores nominations at two of the major guilds (BAFTA/GG/SAG) but is snubbed at the Oscars for You Were Never Really Here



40) I really thought this was going to be the year of Kirsten Dunst but I'm really starting to doubt it now. I feel that Best Actress is too stacked and I have many wildcard performances in Supporting Actress (so much to the fact that I've predicted 10 supporting actresses to be nominated over the course of this countdown laugh.gif). I do think she's going to do really well at the early critic circles though and pick up a lot of wins for Woodshock which leads to increasing buzz and people thinking she will be nominated but she is snubbed at Golden Globes and it goes downhill from there. My reasons for being snubbed for The Beguiled will be coming in a later post.
To a lesser extent and not big enough to make for a single choice, Kristen Stewart will also pick up steam and win quite a few critics circles awards for Personal Shopper but goes nowhere during the main awards season.


39) I feel like Joaquin Phoenix will be this years shocking miss and pretty much be a repeat of his Her campaign. I think the fantastic reviews from Cannes will continue throughout the year and Joaquin will score nominations from two of the major guilds but is shockingly snubbed at one and will be one of those rare actors that despite winning loads of critics awards and being around 3rd/4th place heading into nominations day, he will be the shock snub a la Amy Adams/Tom Hanks etc. Also if he goes on about his dislike for the Oscars again, I can see this harming him the same way that happened with the Her campaign.
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post Aug 17 2017, 06:37 AM
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Oooh, interesting way to kick things off. Definitely bold predictions but they could happen even if I wouldn't bet on it. I had Kirsten Dunst being nominated twice in my very early predictions back in March for both Woodshock and The Beguiled. I don't think she's gonna happen at all now like you said but I don't think the former stands much chance really as the release seems a bit lowkey and A24 have way more promising films to put funds into an awards campaign for, I think (Florida Project, Sacred Deer, Lean On Pete, Lady Bird, Disaster Artist all seem more likely).

I can't see Joaquin either. Like you say, I don't think his unfiltered mouth exactly helps situations and I don't think the film is really likely to go anywhere outside of his performance so of course the actors in Best Picture potential films are who you'd bet on first. Would be nice to see though to make for this snub for Her sad.gif

On a side note, supporting actress definitely seems like it has the most contenders but I think that's because it's quite weak/lacks any big contenders - will be interesting to see how that one turns out laugh.gif

LOVING this so far heart.gif
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post Aug 17 2017, 11:08 AM
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The wounds from Amy's Arrival snub are still too raw Sam, don't remind me cry.gif
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post Aug 28 2017, 09:20 PM
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Going to zoom through this tomorrow x

Will reply to all comments after finishing!
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post Aug 28 2017, 09:42 PM
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As if you're doing this now when I'm on holiday with just a phone </3 Will definitely be reading up but not sure how often I'll be able to comment !! biggrin.gif
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:00 AM
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38. The Seagull/Chappaquiddik/Lissie all get delayed to 2018

37. The Snowman = The Girl On The Train

38) This isn't the most bold prediction but I can't see any of these coming out in 2017. One of them will come out Q1 2018 and flop, one will get some buzz and go nowhere and the other will turn into the biggest contenders of 2018. (Lissie Q1, Chappa buzz, Seagull contender)

37) The Snowman will suffer a similar critical reception to The Girl On The Train and will turn up nowhere despite some buzz. However either Fassbender or Ferguson will turn up randomly as a nomination at one of the big awards a la Emily Blunt.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:03 AM
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36. On Chesil Beach is a big BAFTA's hit & scores a couple of Oscar noms

35. The Current War is snubbed completely (or delayed The Founder style)

36) On Chesil Beach will earn buzz as the season continues and come out of nowhere to be a mini Brooklyn. This will score Best British Film noms, a breakthrough nom for the lead actor, screenplay & Saoirse at BAFTA's and Saoirse + one other category will score Oscar noms.

35) I originally had this one as being delayed The Founder style as Weinstein are a mess but with this being placed on Thanksgiving and Mary Magdelene being delayed I can't see this happening now. However I still maintain that this will get completely snubbed and be a critical failure similar to Billy Lynn and this will be on no one's radar by the start of December.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:04 AM
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going to go until 23 now, not expecting anyone to be around commenting right now but it would be much appreciated if anyone does!! kink.gif
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:08 AM
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34. Roman Israel Esq completely snubbed/delayed

33. It scores a few Oscar nominations

34) I see absolutely no hype for this bar Denzel and there seems to be little information about it at the moment. I think if this stays in 2017 it will be a bit of a flop and get completely snubbed. I can also see it getting delayed at this rate as there seems to be no hype around it atm.

33) This already seems to be getting good reviews and I can see this leading to some shock Oscar buzz. Not expecting like Best Pic or Best Director but I can definitely see It scoring quite a few tech noms, especially categories like makeup could be a good shout for this.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:13 AM
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32. All the early releases are snubbed

31. Michelle Williams has Manchester By The Sea part. 2

32) All the early releases are completely snubbed = The Beguiled, Logan, Baby Driver, War of the Planet of the Apes
Logan will just go nowhere and do a Deadpool and will completely miss every category including techs.
The Beguiled already seems to be dead and yeah it just doesn't seem like it will happen in any category
Apart from a sound editing/mixing nom, Baby Driver will be snubbed cos of its genre and early release
WOTPOTA will have a campaign with many supporters for it but it'll shockingly be snubbed everywhere including all the tech categories.


31) Michelle Williams for The Greatest Showman just feels like its going to go down the Manchester route again. I think she'll be nominated and many will look at her to win for a while but in the end despite getting nominated, all her buzz will vanquish and she'll score another nom with no chance of winning by the time the actual night arrives.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:39 AM
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30. The Disaster Artist is a big hit

29. The Greatest Showman dominates techs/songs despite poor reviews

30) The Disaster Artist seems to be pretty good and I can see it surprisingly catching on as the season continues. I can definitely see it scoring a screenplay nomination (its adapted iirc which rly helps it as 90% of the contenders seem to be original this year) and possibly an acting/directing/picture nomination in store as well.

29) The Greatest Showman I can see getting mediocre reviews from critics but despite missing out on most of the big categories, it'll be a very strong force in techs with +5 nominations including a double nomination in song, score and a couple of costume design like noms.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:45 AM
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28. Murder On The Orient Express is another tech hit + a big nom

27. The Shape of Water = Pan's Labyrinth. + It's not a Best Pic contender

28) Again as with Showman, I can see Murder getting average reviews from critics (like 50/60% rating on RT) but however there is one big acting highlight which leads to them scoring a nomination along with 2 to 3 tech nominations.

27) Unlike many people who seem to be predicting The Shape of Water to be a big Best Pic contender and possibly winning, I can't see that happening or it turning up in any other big categories such as Director and Actress. However I see it being utterly gorgeous and a tech juggernaut with it scoring six tech nominations and winning three of them, just like Del Toro's Pans Labyrinth!
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:47 AM
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26. Molly's Game is completely snubbed.

25. Holly Hunter scores a nom despite missing at least one guild.

26) I've been saying this for months now and still stick by it. However this is about 20 places lower than it would've been a couple of months ago as quite a lot of people seem to be agreeing with me. It just strikes me as going nowhere and feels like another Miss Sloane for Jessica.

25) I can see Holly Hunter scoring a Best Supporting Actress nomination and holding the buzz until the end of the year, however she will score the nomination despite missing a major guild (BAFTA's and possibly SAG as well).
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:49 AM
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24. Claire Foy = Alicia Vikander.

23. Hong Chau gets nominated for Downsizing.

24) Claire strikes me as Alicia part 2 with her being Lead Actress in Breathe but unlike Felicity Jones she is category frauded to supporting actress and wins the category. Like Vikander, she has another project going for her (Vikander has a breakout year + Ex_Machina, Foy has The Crown which also has its season 2 premiering in December, right in the heat of Oscar season).

23) Hong Chau will be the surprise breakout of Downsizing and will be the ONLY acting nomination from the film.
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post Aug 30 2017, 12:52 AM
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22. Hostiles/Kings make late run, one of them is nominated for BP.

21. Mother = Black Swan Part. 2.

22) Hostiles and Kings are definitely the two projects that I feel are really going under the radar at the moment and could be the surprise success of Oscar Season that comes from nowhere a la The Big Short. I'll go with Hostiles being a big breakout and contender for a BP nomination with Kings shooting Halle Berry into a chance of scoring a nom.

21) I can see mother! getting fantastic reviews and it does pretty much what Black Swan did and manages to cross over to Oscar success despite its genre with nominations in Pic/Director and ALL FOUR acting categories.
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