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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 07:55 AM
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Of course, the pattern of people voting more conservatively as they get older has been long established, but will this pattern be affected by the higher number of people going to university nowadays?

It'll be a decade or two before a majority (or at least a large minority) of the middle-aged will have been to university, but do you think this will affect the pattern of rightward swing with age?
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Suedehead2
post Dec 19 2017, 08:52 AM
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In recent years, the trend has been for people with higher educational qualifications to tend towards Labour. The polling organisations insist that this is the case even when adjusting for the fact that younger voters are more likely to have a degree than old voters. However, I haven't seen any detailed analysis to support this. If the pollsters are right, the Tories have a big problem.
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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 19 2017, 08:52 AM) *
In recent years, the trend has been for people with higher educational qualifications to tend towards Labour. The polling organisations insist that this is the case even when adjusting for the fact that younger voters are more likely to have a degree than old voters. However, I haven't seen any detailed analysis to support this. If the pollsters are right, the Tories have a big problem.


But even if this is a real trend, it will be offset by the increasing demands of family/mortgage, which discourages support for radicalism. In simplistic terms, the more money you have, the less likely you are to want the government to 'steal' it from you.
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 19 2017, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 09:18 AM) *
But even if this is a real trend, it will be offset by the increasing demands of family/mortgage, which discourages support for radicalism. In simplistic terms, the more money you have, the less likely you are to want the government to 'steal' it from you.


I doubt it, fewer young people are getting married and there has been a steep decline in home ownership since 2001 due to obscenely high house prices. Demographics is going to punish the Conservatives quite a lot over the next decade (2020-2029) IMO.
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jjake
post Dec 19 2017, 10:13 AM
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itís fascinating how this infighting over brexit dominates the toryís...itís simply what the younger demographic donít want and being done by a party they hold nothing in common in the first place. it really puts the death knell in them as a governing party from 2020 onwards which makes me very happy.

itís fascinating that there isnít more awareness to this; when you fight for the rights of one depleting older group of society at the expense of anyone young, the tide is going to turn and people wonít forget...
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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 19 2017, 09:46 AM) *
I doubt it, fewer young people are getting married and there has been a steep decline in home ownership since 2001 due to obscenely high house prices. Demographics is going to punish the Conservatives quite a lot over the next decade (2020-2029) IMO.


Who mentioned marriage? People will still pair up, want families, and need somewhere to live.

As for demographics - the redrawing of constituency boundaries to equalize electorates invariably helps the Tories. That's not partisan 'gerrymandering' - Tory seats tend to get bigger over time, and therefore have to be divided to reduce their electorates, and Labour ones shrink, necessitating them to be combined to increase their average electorates.


QUOTE(jjake @ Dec 19 2017, 10:13 AM) *
itís fascinating how this infighting over brexit dominates the toryís...itís simply what the younger demographic donít want and being done by a party they hold nothing in common in the first place. it really puts the death knell in them as a governing party from 2020 onwards which makes me very happy.

itís fascinating that there isnít more awareness to this; when you fight for the rights of one depleting older group of society at the expense of anyone young, the tide is going to turn and people wonít forget...


IMO as long as Corbyn is Labour leader, the Tory vote will stay firm enough to keep Labour out of office


This post has been edited by vidsanta: Dec 19 2017, 12:16 PM
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Shia LeMuffQueef
post Dec 19 2017, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 07:55 AM) *
Of course, the pattern of people voting more conservatively as they get older has been long established, but will this pattern be affected by the higher number of people going to university nowadays?

It'll be a decade or two before a majority (or at least a large minority) of the middle-aged will have been to university, but do you think this will affect the pattern of rightward swing with age?


Um yes. The tounger generations are FAR more liberal than the babyboomers. This means the Tories are gonna have a hard time, as will Brexiteers, as millenials have been inured to right wing propaganda against the EU/ have lived in the EU and loved it. Brexit will be reversed in a few years.
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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 19 2017, 12:13 PM) *
Um yes. The tounger generations are FAR more liberal than the babyboomers. This means the Tories are gonna have a hard time, as will Brexiteers, as millenials have been inured to right wing propaganda against the EU/ have lived in the EU and loved it. Brexit will be reversed in a few years.


They may be more liberal than the parents, but GE's are fought on far more issues than simply Brexit.

Who will organise a drive for a new referendum anyway - you surely cannot disagree that the major parties are both too divided to organise a 'de-brexiting' campaign on their own? It took a whole new party to generate enough impetus for Brexit, so I suspect nothing less would get us back in.


This post has been edited by vidsanta: Dec 19 2017, 12:24 PM
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 19 2017, 12:57 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 12:12 PM) *
Who mentioned marriage? People will still pair up, want families, and need somewhere to live.

As for demographics - the redrawing of constituency boundaries to equalize electorates invariably helps the Tories. That's not partisan 'gerrymandering' - Tory seats tend to get bigger over time, and therefore have to be divided to reduce their electorates, and Labour ones shrink, necessitating them to be combined to increase their average electorates.
IMO as long as Corbyn is Labour leader, the Tory vote will stay firm enough to keep Labour out of office


You did mention mortgage, I'd be very interested to see the Labour v Conservative split among those who rent versus those who are owner occupiers. Can't find it anywhere but it would be an interesting indicator for when those that rent will outnumber those who either have a mortgage or own outright, this is expected to be around late 2024. In constituencies where this is already happening, i.e. across London, there was a much stronger swing to Labour in GE 2017.

Also some fairly *.* facts:

QUOTE
the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 Ė up from 34 at the start of the campaign.


QUOTE
However amongst those with high level educational qualifications (defined as degree-level or above) Labour led by 17 percentage points.
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Shia LeMuffQueef
post Dec 19 2017, 01:00 PM
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With more educatiom, liberalism increases. This is a well known trend...

Nope, Labour is ahead in the polls and without the Scottish unionists backing them, the Tories have no HOPE of governing again. Whatx is it a 2% die off of Tory vote annually too? They have no future after all these messes and the young voters now will always remember who caused them harm -Tories. It is the miners' strike all over again in terms of the electorate. Well done, the Landed Gentry!!
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Popchartfreak
post Dec 19 2017, 01:14 PM
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even in the middle of Brexit fever, with UKIP crushed to death and an older voter base that is in the process of dying off, the Tories still failed to get a majority.

Assuming it all goes pear-shaped (as it pretty much looks at present they will make no-one happy with the end result, either extreme hard Brexiters or Remainers/Soft-Brexiters) then there is no reason to assume the Tories will be back in power for a generation.

Young people don't suddenly forget what happens to them when they are young as they get older any more than I have changed my views in any way about thatcher and that era. The ones who are malleable are the poorly-educated, easily-swayed Rag readers who can get fired up at the drop of a lying hat, but I don't think that will be enough for the Tories to be forgiven for what is happening to the NHS and social care services, and everyone's declining standards of living.

There was a very interesting poll last week dealing with all of this.
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Shia LeMuffQueef
post Dec 19 2017, 01:20 PM
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Tuition fees was the first nail in the coffin. The very fact that we had an election called 'Revenge of the Youth', which the elite and right wing rags and BBTory could not BELIEVE, and hated of course, shows what is up for the Tories: desolation. Goodbye, Landed Gentry Toffs, may you never darken No.10 again.
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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(Candlelit Snow @ Dec 19 2017, 01:20 PM) *
Tuition fees was the first nail in the coffin. The very fact that we had an election called 'Revenge of the Youth', which the elite and right wing rags and BBTory could not BELIEVE, and hated of course, shows what is up for the Tories: desolation. Goodbye, Landed Gentry Toffs, may you never darken No.10 again.


With your constant use of phrases like 'Landed Gentry Toffs' I'm guessing you studied 'The History of Socialism' at uni? rolleyes.gif
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Soy AdriŠn
post Dec 19 2017, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 03:05 PM) *
With your constant use of phrases like 'Landed Gentry Toffs' I'm guessing you studied 'The History of Socialism' at uni? rolleyes.gif

I don't think either of you really know what socialism is.

You also completely failed to address the point on the way that the current trend away from home ownership, particularly among the under-40s, is going to affect Tory votes.

On the redrawing of boundaries point - yes, in theory that will work in the Tories' favour in the future. However, three points:

1. Their upsurge among the socially conservative working classes in 2017 (and decline in the socially liberal middle class vote) means that the difference in size of a Tory seat compared to a Labour one is now a lot smaller than it was before this election, so redrawing won't help them anywhere near as much as it did.
2. They won't be able to amend the boundaries during this parliament as they have no majority, and the DUP would massively lose out from the changes.
3. A future Labour government may well recognise that it's far more sensible to draw boundaries based on population, not electorate. That would probably wipe out the remaining Tory advantage.
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vidcapper
post Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(Soy AdriŠn @ Dec 19 2017, 05:10 PM) *
I don't think either of you really know what socialism is.


Then please tell us what you think it is.

QUOTE
You also completely failed to address the point on the way that the current trend away from home ownership, particularly among the under-40s, is going to affect Tory votes.

On the redrawing of boundaries point - yes, in theory that will work in the Tories' favour in the future. However, three points:

1. Their upsurge among the socially conservative working classes in 2017 (and decline in the socially liberal middle class vote) means that the difference in size of a Tory seat compared to a Labour one is now a lot smaller than it was before this election, so redrawing won't help them anywhere near as much as it did.
2. They won't be able to amend the boundaries during this parliament as they have no majority, and the DUP would massively lose out from the changes.
3. A future Labour government may well recognise that it's far more sensible to draw boundaries based on population, not electorate. That would probably wipe out the remaining Tory advantage.


But it's an *unwilling* move away from home ownership for the most part, that makes a difference

re 1. I have the full election results on a spreadsheet so I can check that out - but change in political representation doesn't solve unequal constituency size.

You might be right about the boundary changes, but it is a problem that just *won't* go away.

I just don't understand the third part - why on earth should seats be based on the whole population, when only the over-18's can vote?

We also need to tackle *why* there's a drift from urban to sub-urban/rural areas. It's a no-brainer really - better housing, schools, and facilities in general, plus much lower crime levels.
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Shia LeMuffQueef
post Dec 19 2017, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(Soy AdriŠn @ Dec 19 2017, 05:10 PM) *
I don't think either of you really know what socialism is.

You also completely failed to address the point on the way that the current trend away from home ownership, particularly among the under-40s, is going to affect Tory votes.

On the redrawing of boundaries point - yes, in theory that will work in the Tories' favour in the future. However, three points:

1. Their upsurge among the socially conservative working classes in 2017 (and decline in the socially liberal middle class vote) means that the difference in size of a Tory seat compared to a Labour one is now a lot smaller than it was before this election, so redrawing won't help them anywhere near as much as it did.
2. They won't be able to amend the boundaries during this parliament as they have no majority, and the DUP would massively lose out from the changes.
3. A future Labour government may well recognise that it's far more sensible to draw boundaries based on population, not electorate. That would probably wipe out the remaining Tory advantage.


Great points

But as a socilaist, I kinda have an inkling of what it is...
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Suedehead2
post Dec 19 2017, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 12:22 PM) *
They may be more liberal than the parents, but GE's are fought on far more issues than simply Brexit.

Who will organise a drive for a new referendum anyway - you surely cannot disagree that the major parties are both too divided to organise a 'de-brexiting' campaign on their own? It took a whole new party to generate enough impetus for Brexit, so I suspect nothing less would get us back in.

You are ignoring what young people are set to lose. Young people will see other Europeans continuing to benefit from rights such as freedom of movement and won't like the fact that they don't have the same rights.
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Shia LeMuffQueef
post Dec 19 2017, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
Then please tell us what you think it is.
But it's an *unwilling* move away from home ownership for the most part, that makes a difference

re 1. I have the full election results on a spreadsheet so I can check that out - but change in political representation doesn't solve unequal constituency size.

You might be right about the boundary changes, but it is a problem that just *won't* go away.

I just don't understand the third part - why on earth should seats be based on the whole population, when only the over-18's can vote?

We also need to tackle *why* there's a drift from urban to sub-urban/rural areas. It's a no-brainer really - better housing, schools, and facilities in general, plus much lower crime levels.


1. Reduce it to 15/16.

2. Recognise they are still affected by the changes, OR exclude under 15s when basing on population. Done.

3. P.R.
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Soy AdriŠn
post Dec 19 2017, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
But it's an *unwilling* move away from home ownership for the most part, that makes a difference

Not really - if your point is that people act in self-interest and that homeowners are therefore more likely to vote Tory, then it doesn't matter why someone under 40 doesn't own a home - they're still going to have a different set of priorities and their self-interest will act in a different way. Particularly if there's no prospect for them getting on the housing ladder, as then they will assume that they are likely to be renting for a while, and vote accordingly for the party that best represents those interests.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
re 1. I have the full election results on a spreadsheet so I can check that out - but change in political representation doesn't solve unequal constituency size.

It does, because they now hold a different sets of seats to before the election.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2018.html

This from Electoral Calculus suggests that under the proposed boundary revisions, which follow the rules you've suggested, the Tories would lose 16 seats and Labour would lose 22. That difference is far smaller than before the 2017 election, because the vote demographics for each party have changed.

Broadly speaking, the largest seats (i.e. those where the incumbent party will do well if the changes were to go through) are in Southern England and include large swathes of the London commuter belt. This is an area where Labour's vote picked up a lot in 2017, partly because of the number of young-ish people living/moving there who wanted to live in London but were priced out of doing so. The Tory vote went up a lot where they gained votes from UKIP in declining areas of the North and Midlands where the population is shrinking.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
You might be right about the boundary changes, but it is a problem that just *won't* go away.

My point is that it won't happen in this parliament for the reasons I've set out, and the next parliament could well have a Labour government.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
I just don't understand the third part - why on earth should seats be based on the whole population, when only the over-18's can vote?

Because the MP represents everyone in their seat, not just those eligible to vote.

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 05:43 PM) *
We also need to tackle *why* there's a drift from urban to sub-urban/rural areas. It's a no-brainer really - better housing, schools, and facilities in general, plus much lower crime levels.

As I've said, that's a really simplistic picture. We do need to look at why some areas are experiencing population decline, but I don't really see how it's relevant to this discussion.
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Steve201
post Dec 20 2017, 12:58 AM
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 19 2017, 03:05 PM) *
With your constant use of phrases like 'Landed Gentry Toffs' I'm guessing you studied 'The History of Socialism' at uni? rolleyes.gif


You stated taxation as stealing before there!!
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