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> Are Historic Christmas Songs guaranteed future Xmas #1s?
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Herbs
post Dec 29 2017, 04:22 PM
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Over the next few years the xmas chart is going to get closer to the 25th December.

As X Factor is no longer going for xmas #1 and campaign songs can not rely as much on Physical/Download sales, do the astronomical streaming figures for Mariah Carey and company mean that we will get a historical xmas number one in the next few years?
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GTH
post Dec 29 2017, 04:34 PM
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Nothing is set in stone with the charts. If streaming keeps building as it has over the last fews years then it is looking likely, but who knows what rules might change with the charts. They might increase the streaming to sale ratio again for all we know.

I don't actually mind if Mariah/Wham/Pogues do manage to top the charts still. Would be nice to have a christmas themed song at number 1, especially considering none of those classics have actually been number one before. If it became something that was repeating year after year, then I imagine they might make a separate holiday chart or something of that nature. Can't see anything like that happening for a good few years still.
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deepinside
post Dec 29 2017, 05:08 PM
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2019 would be the best chance Mariah/Wham/Pogues would hit #1 since the Christmas is on Wednesday and we all know the actual Thursday stream didn't count into the chart unless something like Perfect multiple singles version ( sick2.gif ) or rule changes happen.
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Steve201
post Dec 29 2017, 06:55 PM
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It could Happen but as said above rules may change and since its not a monopoly any longer then it pop stars of the year may break a new release for Xmas to challenge! If that happens they may continually come up short!
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Suedehead2
post Dec 29 2017, 08:32 PM
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Adele and Ed Sheeran will release a duet in March which will go straight to number one. They will then release a new version each month featuring the likes of Stormzy, Justin Bieber, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Little Mix and each member of One Direction. That will keep the song at number one for the next two Christmases.
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Mart!n
post Dec 29 2017, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 29 2017, 08:32 PM) *
Adele and Ed Sheeran will release a duet in March which will go straight to number one. They will then release a new version each month featuring the likes of Stormzy, Justin Bieber, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Little Mix and each member of One Direction. That will keep the song at number one for the next two Christmases.



Ed Sheeran did say he has one more single planned at the end of the chart show for next year sad.gif maybe he is collaborating with different artists on one track biggrin.gif
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Steve201
post Dec 29 2017, 08:54 PM
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I would say it'll just be a single from Divide to coincide with the Brits performance he will give!
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vidcapper
post Dec 30 2017, 07:12 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 29 2017, 08:32 PM) *
Adele and Ed Sheeran will release a duet in March which will go straight to number one. They will then release a new version each month featuring the likes of Stormzy, Justin Bieber, Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Little Mix and each member of One Direction. That will keep the song at number one for the next two Christmases.


Don't that charts still have rules that prevent too many versions from being combined?
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Dexton
post Dec 30 2017, 07:47 AM
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QUOTE(ChristmasEve201 @ Dec 30 2017, 04:54 AM) *
I would say it'll just be a single from Divide to coincide with the Brits performance he will give!


My bet is on New Man featuring 1-2 grime artists. Or Barcelona featuring Sean Paul tongue.gif
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SKOB
post Dec 30 2017, 08:07 AM
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Anything can happen but Xmas songs are streamed in a HUGE proportion for only a few days so they are not invincible if couple of big hits surface at the time (Perfect and River this year)
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 30 2017, 08:21 AM
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No.

The biggest streams are usually on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day, therefore they will almost always be largest in the week that is published after the Christmas chart. For example, in 2019 Christmas falls on a Wednesday - though the chart that these streams count towards would be published on the Friday (27th) and therefore the week after the Christmas chart. Probably the 'best case scenario' would be if Christmas fell on a Friday but even then the Thursday Christmas Eve streams would likely not be counted (they are usually estimated on a Thursday) and of course those from the big day itself would be carried forward to the next chart.

Therefore it is unlikely that historic Christmas songs will get the Christmas number 1 - as those who bet on Mariah last year found out!
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Tawdry Hepburn
post Dec 30 2017, 10:40 PM
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I think it's entirely possible it will happen any year soon. I mean, Mariah and Wham! would have both been #1 this year if Ed Sheeran didn't exist.

I can't really see how it won't happen when downloads are phased out and streaming's dominance increases.
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house.martin
post Dec 31 2017, 08:55 AM
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Did or will Radio 1 have a top 40 chart for this week?
The impression I got, was on Friday it was the years top 100, a year which we are still in!
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Bjork
post Dec 31 2017, 10:39 AM
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I think a xmas song could easily go to #1, wham could have been #1 this week if the campaign had focused on this week instead
that said, I'm sure the occ will change the chart rules in view of this
maybe xmas songs will stay on acr or something


This post has been edited by Bjork: Dec 31 2017, 10:39 AM
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777666jason
post Dec 31 2017, 11:18 AM
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Yeah unless we get an ed sherran type situation every year or streaming is suddenly taken out of the charts I think there is a strong chance streaming has only really taken off over the last 3 years and we already have 5 Christmas songs streaming more than a million on Christmas day
Christmas commercialism is only gonna get worse so I can see songs getting streamed a million times earlier in December



This post has been edited by 777666jason: Dec 31 2017, 11:20 AM
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sammy01
post Dec 31 2017, 11:18 AM
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The whole top 5 will be xmas songs in 2018 xmas week.it is inevitable to me. Ed had to pull out all the stops this year to stop them. Downloads will be pretty much dead by Dec 2018 and streaming even bigger.
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slowdown73
post Dec 31 2017, 11:46 AM
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Wham peaked at no2 this year and if it wasn't for Perfect, it would have reached no1 albeit a little late for Christmas no1. I think its possible but this year there has been a lack of competition in the charts. It depends on what else is coming out and exposure via radio and TV promotion for different songs. Streaming ratios may also increase or decrease depending on demand.
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Suedehead2
post Dec 31 2017, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(house.martin @ Dec 31 2017, 08:55 AM) *
Did or will Radio 1 have a top 40 chart for this week?
The impression I got, was on Friday it was the years top 100, a year which we are still in!

They announced the top ten (twice as they got it wrong the first time), but there was no normal chart show. The chart year formally ended on Thursday; sales from then up to today contribute to next week's chart which is the first of 2018. I'm sure they have the data to compile a 1 January to 31 December chart, but they choose not to do it.

For as long as the chart rules stay as they are, I suspect we may not see a normal top 40 show for the last chart of they year as it is dominated by Christmas songs.
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Suedehead2
post Dec 31 2017, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Dec 31 2017, 10:39 AM) *
I think a xmas song could easily go to #1, wham could have been #1 this week if the campaign had focused on this week instead
that said, I'm sure the occ will change the chart rules in view of this
maybe xmas songs will stay on acr or something

As I said in my commentary a couple weeks ago, I would like them to consider a different ratio for streams where the listener has streamed all (or almost all) of a playlist. It should be easy enough for the streaming sites to collect the data to be able to determine when that ratio would apply. They could treat albums as just another type of playlist and apply the same ratio there. If they did that, they might not need the "three songs per artist" rule.
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Mart!n
post Dec 31 2017, 12:12 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised OCC change the streaming ratio for old Christmas tracks next year, they could easily apply that or some other stupid rule, so we won't have 23 Christmas tracks inside the top 40.
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