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vidcapper
post Mar 28 2018, 02:28 PM
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Just received my polling card today.

Probably just a straight Tory/LD contest here - it usually is.

All 20 Cheltenham wards are up for re-election.

Any elections in your area?


This post has been edited by Brett-Butler: May 3 2018, 07:40 AM
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Suedehead2
post Mar 28 2018, 04:36 PM
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No elections here. The whole council is up next year.

I can see the Tories taking a hammering in London. Post-Grenfell they may lose control of Kensington & Chelsea for the first time ever. I also suspect that UKIP will lose almost all the seats they are defending across the country.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 28 2018, 04:47 PM
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No local elections in Northern Ireland until 2019, so none on this side.

I agree above that Ukip will almost definitely lose all their seats, and that the Tories will lose quite a few seats in London. It will be interesting to see how they do outside the capital though, Labour have almost double the amount of seats up for grabs than the Conservatives.
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Suedehead2
post Mar 28 2018, 04:57 PM
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You can always tell when the local elections are approaching. First, lots of government adverts sort appearing with positive messages. Then you get the announcement of popular policies such as the deposit scheme for glass and plastic bottles. We will soon enter the pre-election period where such announcements and advertising are not allowed.

No doubt we can expect some less popular announcements tomorrow just before the Easter break.
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Harve
post Mar 28 2018, 05:23 PM
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We have no elections/referendums in Scotland this year for the first time since 2013 after averaging two per year since then, and I don't know what to do with myself.
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Iz
post Mar 28 2018, 05:28 PM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Mar 28 2018, 06:23 PM) *
We have no elections/referendums in Scotland this year for the first time since 2013 after averaging two per year since then, and I don't know what to do with myself.


Likewise, (but not Scottish) this actually will be the first year since becoming eligible that I will have nothing to vote in whatsoever.

I'll be interested to see what will come of these but I'm cautious about predicting a Tory hammering just yet, maybe in London but outside of that I'm less sure.
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Queef of Skreech
post Mar 28 2018, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(Iz @ Mar 28 2018, 06:28 PM) *
Likewise, (but not Scottish) this actually will be the first year since becoming eligible that I will have nothing to vote in whatsoever.

I'll be interested to see what will come of these but I'm cautious about predicting a Tory hammering just yet, maybe in London but outside of that I'm less sure.


The establishment wouldn't be running so scared, barfing out smear after smear, if they weren't secretly predicting a drubbing of their Tory pals. When even the BBC is barely even trying to hide its pro Tory bias, you know they are desperate.
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LexC
post Mar 28 2018, 06:18 PM
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Holding out hopes that the Tories will lose Wandsworth (which if they do is a seriously big deal given that's been their flagship Thatcherite borough for the last 40 years) where my Mum's family are all from.

Locally to me I think Portsmouth City is going to be interesting to see if Labour can replace the Lib Dems as the non-Tory option especially in the very remainy parts in the south of the city after they got a shock win in June.
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Suedehead2
post Mar 28 2018, 07:32 PM
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I did see a suggestion somewhere that Labour could take Wandsworth. That would indeed be a shock as it has been solidly Tory for decades.

There was one set of elections in the Thatcher years (I think it must have been 1986) when the Torries did badly in most of the country but did a lot less badly in London, including holding Wandsworth fairly comfortably. The Tories managed to deflect attention on their largely poor showing by getting Thatcher to pose with a copy of the (London) Evening Standard calling the London results a triumph.
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Popchartfreak
post Mar 28 2018, 07:43 PM
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No elections for Bournemouth or Poole because they are merging, along with Christchurch, and we are waiting with baited breath to hear if they will cutting the number of Councillors along with the numbers of staff (again). I mean it'a all relative as Tories run all of them, but the Tories in Christchurch hate the Tories in Bournemouth and the government for forcing them into a merger against their will (because Christchurch is to pissing small it can't function on its own). The first election after merger will be fascinating watching Tory vs Tory.

Tory Story: where childish puppets suddenly come to life when the grown-ups leave the room, the cowboys, the dinosaurs, the plastic soldiers, the bizarre aliens and the bullying big baby....
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vidcapper
post Mar 29 2018, 06:23 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 28 2018, 05:36 PM) *
No elections here. The whole council is up next year.

I can see the Tories taking a hammering in London. Post-Grenfell they may lose control of Kensington & Chelsea for the first time ever. I also suspect that UKIP will lose almost all the seats they are defending across the country.


But wouldn't a majority of those former UKIP votes go (or more likely revert) to the Tories?
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Queef of Skreech
post Mar 29 2018, 06:32 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 29 2018, 07:23 AM) *
But wouldn't a majority of those former UKIP votes go (or more likely revert) to the Tories?


Lolololololol like they said they would last election? xD

Labour is also pro Brexit, soo no
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vidcapper
post Mar 29 2018, 07:03 AM
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QUOTE(Queef of Peace @ Mar 29 2018, 07:32 AM) *
Lolololololol like they said they would last election? xD


Try this :

Article

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-...d-2017-election

Just the graphs

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2...-election_2.pdf

Just over halfway down, there's a graph that estimates how people voted in 2017 compared to 2015. The figures suggest that 60% of UKIP voters switched to the Tories, while only 16% to Labour.

QUOTE
Labour is also pro Brexit, soo no


That'll be news to a lot of their MP's. tongue.gif
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Suedehead2
post Mar 29 2018, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 29 2018, 07:23 AM) *
But wouldn't a majority of those former UKIP votes go (or more likely revert) to the Tories?

There aren't a lot of UKIP votes in London.
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vidcapper
post Mar 29 2018, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 29 2018, 11:35 AM) *
There aren't a lot of UKIP votes in London.


Ah, but to have won the seats last time, they would necessarily have had significant votes *then*, so where will those go?

BTW, here are the results last time :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014


This post has been edited by vidcapper: Mar 29 2018, 10:50 AM
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Suedehead2
post Mar 29 2018, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 29 2018, 11:44 AM) *
Ah, but to have won the seats last time, they would necessarily have had significant votes *then*, so where will those go?

BTW, here are the results last time :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014

How does the fact that they won twelve seats across 32 London boroughs invalidate my statement that there are not a lot of UKIP votes in London as a whole?
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vidcapper
post Mar 29 2018, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 28 2018, 03:28 PM) *
Just received my polling card today.

Probably just a straight Tory/LD contest here - it usually is.


Not quite correct - the last contest here in 2016

https://democracy.cheltenham.gov.uk/mgElect...mp;RPID=2846224

People Against Bureaucracy are a local group who've contested elections here for a number of years : http://www.pab.org.uk/
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 30 2018, 09:47 PM
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The "notional" seats that are going to be defended on 3 May, according to the BBC, are -

Labour Party 2,278 seats
Conservative Party 1,365 seats
Liberal Democrats 462 seats
UK Independence Party 126 seats
Greens 31 seats

I imagine it'll be gains for Labour & the Lib Dems, losses for the Conservatives, a wipe-out for UKIP, and the Greens coming in about the same.

There will also be some parties who are going to be fighting elections for the first time in the local elections. These include Renew Britain, an anti-Brexit centrist party who are aiming to become the UK's answer to En Marche! (they are standing in Wandsworth), Thurrock Independents (who were formed when every single Ukip councillor in Thurrock resigned en masse), Aspire & People's Alliance of Tower Hamlets (who were formed from the ashes of Tower Hamlets First).
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Suedehead2
post May 1 2018, 11:20 AM
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The media focus on this set of elections always tends to be on London, much to the chagrin of people living elsewhere. However, the capital does have a number of interesting contests this time. Labour are expected to take control of Barnet (they are currently only one seat behind the Tories) although the borough's large Jewish population may be an issue. Labour are also targeting Tory strongholds in Wandsworth, Westminster and (post-Grenfell) Kensington & Chelsea. The Lib Dems will be hoping to regain control in one or both of Richmond and Kingston.

Elsewhere, Labour hope to regain control of Trafford. In Manchester they held every seat until they lost one to the Lib Dems in a by-election. They seem to be aiming to eliminate all opposition. Sunderland could be interesting. The Lib Dems have won a couple spectacular victories in by-elections there so may be able to make a few more gains. One aim for the Lib Dems is to achieve a substantial reduction in the number of councils where they have no seats at all.

My guess is that the number of UKIP seats won will be in single figures, possibly a round figure.
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Brett-Butler
post May 1 2018, 11:45 AM
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I've got a question that perhaps our more clued-up members may be able to shed light upon. Just like the General Election, the council elections in England & Wales are decided by first-past-the-post. If this was to be changed to AV or STV, at what level will this get decided? Does Westminster have to legislate on this, or can the councils or boroughs decide this on their own? (I think it's the former).
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