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Doctor Blind
post Jan 1 2019, 09:01 AM
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So 2019 will undoubtably be an interesting year, whether it is the current expected date of the UK's departure from the EU (29 March) or the continuing rise of populism worldwide and especially in Europe where new European Parliament elections will take place in May - without the UK.

See how our 2018 predictions fared here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=208175

What do you think will happen in 2019?
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 1 2019, 12:10 PM
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I didn't do any predictions in 2018, although if I had, one imagines that they would have been completely wrong, so nothing lost here. Keeping in mind my predictions end up being incredibly wrong, here are mine for 2019. You can find the salt beside the door, from which you are permitted to take as much as you can fit between your finger and thumb -

Brexit - In February 2019, parliament votes through Theresa May's Brexit deal, with a few minor alterations. The majority of the Conservative Party (with Kenneth Clarke a noted rebel), and a small but significant minority of the Labour Party vote in favour, as May's decision to play a game of chicken by continuously delaying presentation of the bill to the parliament, which spooks a lot of MPs into voting for it, scared of what happen in a No Deal scenario. The UK withdraws from Europe officially in September, and with the exception of some major tabloid scare stories over the summer months about 10 hour waits to get through passport checks in airports, appears to go through without many major hitches.

UK Politics - Following the Brexit vote, there the usual tabloid scrum for a new "centrist" party, this time led by Lord Adonis and other "Peoples Vote" people, who begin the calls for a People's Vote for the UK to rejoin the EU the moment the UK leaves (having failed to get a 2nd referendum for the terms of the withdrawal agreement). Once again, this is hot air, and the year ends without any other major political party breaking through the Labour/Conservative duopoly.

In by-election news, the Conservatives win the by-election in Peterborough caused by the resignation of Fiona Onasanya for perverting the course of justice. There are several other by-elections fought during the year, all of which are won by the same party that stood down. One story that begins to emerge from the by-elections is the slight re-surgence of The SDP, who start to win back their deposits during the year, having won tiny pockets of support from disillusioned Labourites, Tories & Ukippers. This causes the tabloids to talk about the re-rise of the SDP, which of course does not happen.

UKIP finally goes full-fash, changing their rules so that ex-BNP members can join & appoints Tommy Robinson into a major role. They subsequently lose every single seat they are running for in the 2019 council election.

There will be no General Election in 2019, and all major party leaders will be as they are come the end of the year. Labour/Tories will continually jostle for top spot in opinion polls during the year, ending with 39% Conservatives, 38% Labour, with no other party on more than 10%

Northern Ireland - After the Conservatives pull the plug on their supply & demand relationship with the DUP after the latter refuses to vote with May on her Brexit deal, they set their sights back on NI, and the Assembly gets back up and running with a few conditions - the mandatory coalition system is abolished, and so is the petition of concern. In the subsequent election, a unionist majority emerges, with the DUP/UUP forming the government, with Sinn Fein as the official opposition. Serious calls for Irish reunification begins, as a result of complications on the border as a result of Brexit coming through, but as by the end of the year there has been no clear opinion poll suggesting a majority in favour of reunification, no poll happens this year.

Europe - In the European elections, there is an unprecedented rise of populists and far-right politicians entering the European Parliament. This leads to a greater support of Brexit amongst the middle-classes, even to the point where an editorial in the Guardian insinuates that it is better for the UK not to remain in a club with these "nutcases".

France - The Anglosphere finally wakes up to what a screw-top Macron is, as various scandals, and his inept handling of them, make them realise he wasn't the great saviour of the European ideal that he was excepted to be. Realistic calls for his resignation emerge over the summer, which result in Macron going all "Sun King", and refusing to leave his palace for days on end.

USA - despite scandal after scandal, Donald Trump still remains president, with his approval rating remaining at about the same level. The preparations for the 2020 primaries begin - there are calls for a major "Never Trump" Republican to challenge him for his party's primary. By the end of the year the only two still in the running are Trump & Ben Sasse, but no media pundit believes that he can unseat Trump.

In the Democrat primaries, 5 major candidates still find themselves seriously in the running for the party nomination, 4 of whom are female. The field had double the candidates during the summer, but had taken themselves out of the running having been tripped up by Trump's ability to get into their heads - Beto O'Rourke & Andrew Cuomo being the two highest profile casualties.

Well, that's my thoughts. I'll probably being incredibly wrong about all of them, but hey, that's half the fun.
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Confloppi
post Jan 1 2019, 03:24 PM
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-Tories collapse
- Mad May tries to bribe every last MP going over Brexit, but falls short
- General Election, Corbyn becomes PM with Sturgeon Deputy
- People's Vote and an extension of article 50
- Lib Dems continue to be irrelevant at a national level, but with inroads at the local
- The perperrl have sperkerrrn Nazi propaganda is trotted out constantly in the first few months of the year

USA:

- Bernie and Biden fight it out for the prize. Bernie gets it.
- The Mueller investigation continues and keeps targeting Trump
- Trump becomes more unstable
- Trump keeps the government shutdown going and going
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 1 2019, 10:45 PM
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This was a very good call from Tyron last year:

QUOTE
- Theresa May is still prime minister by the end of 2018, but a vote of no confidence is called among Tory MPs at some point by the hard Brexiteers out of dissatisfaction at the negotiations. May wins comfortably with at least 250 votes despite everyone still thinking she's useless, as the various factions other than the hard Brexiteers combine to back her in the hope of keeping her in place until after Brexit negotiations are completed.
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Sixth Sense
post Jan 1 2019, 11:59 PM
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QUOTE(Michaelmas! @ Jan 1 2019, 03:24 PM) *
- Bernie and Biden fight it out for the prize. Bernie gets it.


The US election isn't until November 2020 and we won't know the Democratic candidate this year.

Can't see either getting it unless they have a young, maybe female, running for Vice President.

My money's on a Sanders/Elizabeth Warren dream ticket losing to Trump.

Think it's going to take something special to unseat Trump in 2020.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Jan 2 2019, 12:03 AM
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Confloppi
post Jan 2 2019, 12:05 AM
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Something special?! He is DESPISED. Bernie IS THE. MOST. POPULAR. POLITICIAN. IN. THE. US. AND. WAS. ABOVE. TRUMP. BY. DOUBLE. DIGITS. And that was the first time! He wins. Easily.
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Sixth Sense
post Jan 2 2019, 12:15 AM
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QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 2 2019, 12:05 AM) *
Something special?! He is DESPISED. Bernie IS THE. MOST. POPULAR. POLITICIAN. IN. THE. US. AND. WAS. ABOVE. TRUMP. BY. DOUBLE. DIGITS. And that was the first time! He wins. Easily.



Yet Hillary beat Sanders to the nomination. rolleyes.gif Not such a cert amongst his own party members then! Give it a rest. I'd say Biden has a better chance of unseating Trump.

I'd bet my house and all my savings that Trump will be re-elected comfortably and he should be. The best US President in living memory.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Jan 2 2019, 12:18 AM
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Confloppi
post Jan 2 2019, 12:30 AM
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Yes because she won the SOUTHERN states and the DNC rigged it. ALSO he started at 2%. Ended nearly winning laugh.gif
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Confloppi
post Jan 2 2019, 12:31 AM
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You must be trolling. He is atrocious and literally INSANE. That fat cat piece of shit should not be in the white house. He will not be reelected. Sorry.
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vidcapper
post Jan 2 2019, 06:32 AM
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QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 2 2019, 12:31 AM) *
You must be trolling. He is atrocious and literally INSANE. That fat cat piece of shit should not be in the white house. He will not be reelected. Sorry.


That's what we thought before his election the first time... rolleyes.gif
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J00psichord
post Jan 2 2019, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 1 2019, 12:10 PM) *
I didn't do any predictions in 2018, although if I had, one imagines that they would have been completely wrong, so nothing lost here. Keeping in mind my predictions end up being incredibly wrong, here are mine for 2019. You can find the salt beside the door, from which you are permitted to take as much as you can fit between your finger and thumb -

Brexit - In February 2019, parliament votes through Theresa May's Brexit deal, with a few minor alterations. The majority of the Conservative Party (with Kenneth Clarke a noted rebel), and a small but significant minority of the Labour Party vote in favour, as May's decision to play a game of chicken by continuously delaying presentation of the bill to the parliament, which spooks a lot of MPs into voting for it, scared of what happen in a No Deal scenario. The UK withdraws from Europe officially in September, and with the exception of some major tabloid scare stories over the summer months about 10 hour waits to get through passport checks in airports, appears to go through without many major hitches.

UK Politics - Following the Brexit vote, there the usual tabloid scrum for a new "centrist" party, this time led by Lord Adonis and other "Peoples Vote" people, who begin the calls for a People's Vote for the UK to rejoin the EU the moment the UK leaves (having failed to get a 2nd referendum for the terms of the withdrawal agreement). Once again, this is hot air, and the year ends without any other major political party breaking through the Labour/Conservative duopoly.

In by-election news, the Conservatives win the by-election in Peterborough caused by the resignation of Fiona Onasanya for perverting the course of justice. There are several other by-elections fought during the year, all of which are won by the same party that stood down. One story that begins to emerge from the by-elections is the slight re-surgence of The SDP, who start to win back their deposits during the year, having won tiny pockets of support from disillusioned Labourites, Tories & Ukippers. This causes the tabloids to talk about the re-rise of the SDP, which of course does not happen.

UKIP finally goes full-fash, changing their rules so that ex-BNP members can join & appoints Tommy Robinson into a major role. They subsequently lose every single seat they are running for in the 2019 council election.

There will be no General Election in 2019, and all major party leaders will be as they are come the end of the year. Labour/Tories will continually jostle for top spot in opinion polls during the year, ending with 39% Conservatives, 38% Labour, with no other party on more than 10%

Northern Ireland - After the Conservatives pull the plug on their supply & demand relationship with the DUP after the latter refuses to vote with May on her Brexit deal, they set their sights back on NI, and the Assembly gets back up and running with a few conditions - the mandatory coalition system is abolished, and so is the petition of concern. In the subsequent election, a unionist majority emerges, with the DUP/UUP forming the government, with Sinn Fein as the official opposition. Serious calls for Irish reunification begins, as a result of complications on the border as a result of Brexit coming through, but as by the end of the year there has been no clear opinion poll suggesting a majority in favour of reunification, no poll happens this year.

Europe - In the European elections, there is an unprecedented rise of populists and far-right politicians entering the European Parliament. This leads to a greater support of Brexit amongst the middle-classes, even to the point where an editorial in the Guardian insinuates that it is better for the UK not to remain in a club with these "nutcases".

France - The Anglosphere finally wakes up to what a screw-top Macron is, as various scandals, and his inept handling of them, make them realise he wasn't the great saviour of the European ideal that he was excepted to be. Realistic calls for his resignation emerge over the summer, which result in Macron going all "Sun King", and refusing to leave his palace for days on end.

USA - despite scandal after scandal, Donald Trump still remains president, with his approval rating remaining at about the same level. The preparations for the 2020 primaries begin - there are calls for a major "Never Trump" Republican to challenge him for his party's primary. By the end of the year the only two still in the running are Trump & Ben Sasse, but no media pundit believes that he can unseat Trump.

In the Democrat primaries, 5 major candidates still find themselves seriously in the running for the party nomination, 4 of whom are female. The field had double the candidates during the summer, but had taken themselves out of the running having been tripped up by Trump's ability to get into their heads - Beto O'Rourke & Andrew Cuomo being the two highest profile casualties.

Well, that's my thoughts. I'll probably being incredibly wrong about all of them, but hey, that's half the fun.


Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are.

A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian.
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Suedehead2
post Jan 2 2019, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(MˇrtleSnow @ Jan 2 2019, 06:27 PM) *
Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are.

A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian.

You're assuming that the UK government listens to reason. I think we have plenty of evidence that this government does no such thing.
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Confloppi
post Jan 2 2019, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 2 2019, 06:32 AM) *
That's what we thought before his election the first time... rolleyes.gif


Not me. Bernie was ahead by double digits. Hillary was 2-3 or sometimes even behind and won only the southern states which always vote Republican
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 2 2019, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(MˇrtleSnow @ Jan 2 2019, 07:27 PM) *
Good analysis in general but I'd question how stable your NI predictions are.

A UUP-DUP government in power at a time when we've been discussing reumification and the UK, England, the British people and British politicians seem to all intents and purposes not give a fig about understanding the state of play currently or history of NI and Ireland, and at the same time seem content to put up a literal wall between the north and the south... well, I don't see those of a more Republican bent within the island being happy with that at the best of times, and it happening under an English PM and an UUP-DUP government would be insult to injury. I could definitely foresee at least tension and at worst a return to civil violence if that was to pass. It sounds very Cromwellian.


I suspect that Sinn Fein would acquiesce to a DUP-UUP Executive in the event of a unionist majority in the hope that it galvanises the republican/nationalist base and paves the way for a United, although I admit that this is the one prediction that is perhaps the least likely to come to effect.
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 13 2019, 10:45 AM
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I'm in agreement with a lot of what BB has said, but first a look back at my predictions for 2018:

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • A much weakened Angela Merkel will quickly form a coalition with the Social Democrats in January, still as Chancellor this decision will be taken quickly primarily to avoid another election and prevent a further rise in the support for the AfD.


This did happen, GroKo II (GroŖe Koalition) was voted through reluctantly by the SDP but this was mainly achieved through older voters. As a result a fair few of the now disillusioned younger SDP supporters have since peeled off to the more left-wing Greens instead and given them a huge boost and resulted in a continued loss to the support of the SDP. What I didn't envisage was Merkel agreeing to step down as leader of the CDU (though she remains Chancellor for the time being).

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • The ongoing Catalonia/Spain crisis will deepen further with each entrenching in their respective positions and no real resolution agreed by the end of 2018.
Pedro Sanchez of the Socialist Party surprisingly became PM after Rajoy was ousted - that appears to have eased tensions for the time being, though in reality there remains no real settled solution but hopefully one will come in the coming years before the next scheduled election of July 2020.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • By-election held in South Thanet, caused by conviction of Craig Mackinlay ( tried for ‘knowingly making a false election expenses declaration’ relating to his 2015 general election expenses ) on 14 May 2018. Conservatives HOLD.


No, sadly. His campaign manager was convicted and received a 9 month suspended sentence but bizarrely he was acquitted.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • Oil price continues a slow recovery through 2018 which has a knock-on effect of maintaining relatively high inflation in UK in spite of forecasts of it to ‘fall back’ to <2% it remains high in December 2018 at 2.5%. Interest rates HELD at near record lows of 0.5%.
  • ‘Cost of Living Crisis’ returns as an increasing issue as wage inflation remains negative in ‘real terms’ forcing more of a squeeze on spending - productivity remains flat but GDP slightly outperforms OECD predictions and ends the year +1.5%.


I've grouped these together because they both deal with the economy. Oil prices have actually remained steady over 2018, although they were rising until October - and have since collapsed. Inflation did not fall back below 2%, indeed it was 2.3% in November so not a bad prediction and interest rates were increased in the summer by 0.25% to 0.75% so that was another incorrect prediction! In terms of wage inflation, that actually exceeded inflation later in the year and so there was less of an issue, although spending was down at retail and productivity did indeed remain flat. GDP figures for 2018 aren't out yet, but to the 3rd quarter they were 1.5% year-on-year so my prediction potentially not bad in the end!

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • Putin easily wins reelection in Russia in March 2018 with over 50% of the vote.


Well, yes. Didn't envisage his attempted assassination of a former spy on UK soil though. He is becoming more and more rogue so expect more of the same next year.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • No general election is called despite further narrow defeats for the government, and the ‘EU Withdrawal Bill’ is passed early in 2018, and a transition period for leaving the EU is tentatively agreed with BAU rules extending discussions on a new trade deal through until 31 December 2020.
  • Initial sketched out ‘Brexit’ deal is to be loosely similar to that of Canada’s recent free trade agreement (with bespoke UK specific differences), nobody is particularly happy with it (cue: much angry rhetoric in the papers) but it is sufficient to placate the ‘frothing Brexiteers’ - the issue of Northern Ireland / RoI border raises its head once again.
  • Support in the UK remains split 50/50 for both ‘Brexit’ as well as the two main parties through the year with little change in opinion. Labour/Conservative end year near enough neck-and-neck in polls on 40%.
  • Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May both end the year as leaders of their respective parties. Vince Cable too with some very good results in local elections in May. UKIP continue in the wilderness with Henry Bolton and lose yet further seats in local elections.
  • Labour will move further towards a remain position with regard to single-market access and the customs union.
  • No resolution on Northern Ireland Assembly crisis. Arlene Foster continues to refuse to resign over the ‘heating scandal’ and Sinn Fťin continue to be locked in endless talks with the DUP which result in no resolution. Direct rule is eventually imposed later in 2018.


There were quite a few defeats for the government - including infamously being found in contempt of Parliament (which passed 307–311, by just 4 votes). The EU Withdrawal Bill was passed, but the transition period has yet to be agree (see predictions for 2019). No general election was called, although Jeremy Corbyn has been trying for the past few months despite no hope of it happening. Well it appears I was too optimistic thinking that the new trade deal would be sketched out by now - we still have no detail AT ALL - so that was wrong, though I was right about the deal (about the divorce) pleasing nobody and the issue of the Northern Ireland Backstop appears to be the defining issue at the moment. At the end of the year a recent poll from Survation shows support for Remain and Leave still more-or-less split at 50/50 and Labour and Conservative roughly neck-and-neck in the polls with 40%. JC, TM and VC all remain leaders of their respective parties and the Lib Dems did indeed do rather well at the local elections in May. Er, the less said about UKIP the better...
Finally whilst Labour did move further towards a remain position, their actual Brexit strategy remains wilfully nebulous in order to continue to carry along the awkward coalition of metropolitan cities and former industrial towns in the north. How long that can continue is an open question, but it seems increasingly fragile IMO.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 31 2017, 01:45 PM) *
  • Further damning revelations are released about the Trump campaign by Mueller, but he ends 2018 as the President. However, in the November midterms the Democrats do relatively well and take back a majority in midterm elections for the US House of Representatives - in the Senate they do not make any gains and the Republicans continue with a narrow majority.


Well we got Trump survive another year, although it ended with extraordinary attacks of the Fed and a partial government shut-down over Congress' refusal to approve money to build his beloved wall. How will 2019 turn out? The Democrats did relatively well and took back a majority in the House of Representatives - but did not take the Senate.
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 13 2019, 11:47 AM
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2019 then... it's going to get interesting...

Let's start with the easy stuff(!)
  • It is largely a foregone conclusion that Theresa May’s much delayed EU Withdrawal Agreement will be voted down in Parliament next Tuesday, the question remains; ‘By how much’ ? I suspect not the 3 figure numbers that some have touted that will kill it off entirely, as the ‘running down the clock’ strategy appears to be gaining some last minute reluctant support. However, it will be enough to cause widespread panic in the financial markets over the possibility of no deal.
  • Much chaos in Parliament ensues, May refuses to resign. The vote is brought back and reluctantly accepted (the irony of bringing it back for a 2nd vote is not lost on anyone) by promising an agreement on the future relationship that holds to a Norway style EFTA arrangement. Transition deal until end of 2021 is agreed.
  • This will lead to splits in both the Conservative and the Labour party. May will be under pressure to resign but will face no leadership contest, she reluctantly agrees to go later in 2019 and is replaced by Amber Rudd.
  • After Brexit expect continued pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to call a new EU referendum to rejoin from the grassroots and membership, eventually his leadership to be challenged later in the year if he does not yield to it. This may be killed off later in the year as the EU becomes embroiled within a different problem (the rise of populism: see later predictions on the EU) but I expect Corbyn, like May, may not be leader by the end of the year either.
  • In France President Macron will continue with his controversial reforms to pensions and the state, but these will be paused for the first half of the year to allow tension with the ‘Gillet Jaune’ movement to subside. Further concessions may be made to allow him to take people with him, rather than to force these somewhat unpopular changes through. By the end of the year his popularity will have improved somewhat.
  • A challenging year ahead for the EU with the ongoing Brexit negotiations coupled with European Elections in May which see a huge growth in support of right-wing and generally Eurosceptic candidates, largely at expense of centrist pro-EU coalitions in the Parliament that leads to increasing fragmentation of support - expect Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy and the AfD to make considerable and worrying gains, higher than anticipated. This coupled with many nation member states being governed by fragile coalition governments or minority governments that are being increasingly threatened by the rise of populist Eurosceptics that have been on the rise since the migrant crisis of 2015, will make this a turbulent year.
  • Economic slowdown starts to gather pace in 2019 with the first signs continuing to emerge of a slowdown of growth in China. This coupled with the recent trade friction between the US and China (the US under Trump will resume increasing tariffs ) will escalate the slowdown and a recession may take place later in the year.
  • UK GDP growth will slide to below 1% in 2019 and interest rates will be held (perhaps even cut slightly later in the year) though oil prices will continue their malaise at the new lows that were scaled at the end of 2018 and that will help inflation to fall to below 2% in spite of further currency fluctuations in the £ given the uncertainty over Brexit that continues into the spring.
  • I suspect Trump WILL finally has his downfall later this year as the impeachment process is commenced, this after incredibly damning indictments from Mueller's report in March and the loss of any remaining allies. He resigns eventually but does not go quietly and blames it all on fake news as usual. There will be a huge upswing in female politician candidates announcing presidential campaigns for the Democrats and a continued growth in the Socialist Democrat movement fronted by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Big calls:
  • No general election in 2019. No new EU referendum held in 2019.
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deepinside
post Feb 19 2019, 03:55 AM
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Little bit curious to see BJ prediction on Scotland, Ireland (North and/or Republic) and Gibraltar this year despite not knowing much the general political climate in Europe.
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