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> Eurovision Song Contest 2019 Predictions
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Ryan.
post Mar 16 2019, 08:37 PM
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As isn't tradition, I bring you the predictions thread with this paragraph copied from last year (which was copied from the year before) with the required edits. I just need somewhere to write my thoughts!

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them.
• New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously).
• If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore.

BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
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Klaus
post Mar 16 2019, 09:05 PM
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I think the UK will come last
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Ryan.
post Mar 16 2019, 09:20 PM
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Very initial predictions with the little running order info we have:

SEMI 1
Overall - Televote - Jury

01 01 03 Cyprus
02 05 02 Greece
03 02 06 Hungary
04 09 01 Portugal
05 08 05 Belgium
06 03 12 Estonia
07 11 04 Australia
08 06 09 Serbia
09 04 15 Iceland
10 12 07 Slovenia
11 10 10 Belarus
12 07 14 Poland
13 14 08 Finland
14 15 11 Czech Republic
15 13 16 San Marino
16 16 13 Montenegro
17 17 17 Georgia

SEMI 2
Overall - Televote - Jury

01 02 01 The Netherlands
02 01 05 Russia
03 05 02 Sweden
04 03 06 Switzerland
05 10 03 Malta
06 08 09 Azerbaijan
07 09 08 Armenia
08 04 14 Norway
09 06 12 Denmark
10 11 07 Albania
11 15 04 Austria
12 07 15 Lithuania
13 12 10 North Macedonia
14 13 13 Romania
15 16 11 Ireland
16 14 16 Croatia
17 17 17 Moldova
18 18 18 Latvia

FINAL
Overall - Televote - Jury

01 02 01 The Netherlands
02 01 04 Russia
03 07 02 Sweden
04 03 08 Hungary
05 08 03 Italy
06 05 07 Cyprus
07 04 09 Switzerland
08 10 05 Portugal
09 12 11 Greece
10 20 06 Malta
11 11 16 Azerbaijan
12 09 19 Serbia
13 16 12 Albania
14 17 13 Belgium
15 06 25 Norway
16 22 10 Australia
17 15 18 Denmark
18 14 20 Iceland
19 13 22 Spain
20 19 17 Armenia
21 24 14 United Kingdom
22 23 15 Slovenia
23 18 23 France
24 25 21 Israel
25 21 26 Estonia
26 26 24 Germany
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J🐠hq
post Mar 17 2019, 12:28 AM
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I’d be extremely shocked if either Sergey or Joci beat their previous results with what seem to be widely agreed are weaker songs

In fact, let my first prediction be that Hungary is quite the borderline qualifier!
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ScottyEm
post Mar 17 2019, 01:10 AM
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OK...worth a stab

Semi 1
01 Greece
02 Cyprus
03 Australia
04 Slovenia
05 Hungary
06 Portugal
07 Belgium
08 Estonia
09 Iceland
10 Finland
11 Serbia
12 Czech Republic
13 Poland
14 Belarus
15 San Marino
16 Montenegro
17 Georgia

Semi 2
01 Netherlands
02 Switzerland
03 Russia
04 Sweden
05 Armenia
06 Malta
07 Azerbaijan
08 Albania
09 Denmark
10 Norway
11 Lithuania
12 Romania
13 Austria
14 Ireland
15 North Macedonia
16 Croatia
17 Moldova
18 Latvia

I written off Finland but I think there is just enough impact for it to squeak through. Greece will, I think, be absolutely eaten up by the jury as it ticks every conceivable box. Slovenia could potentially have their best result on their hands. Iceland will also sneak in, partly thanks to semi final fans being less made up of young families and grannies.

I think Netherlands and Switzerland will be the top two of the final. Russia will come around 6th in the final. It’s a bit too “theatre” to win I think and I do think there is a sentiment of anti-Russia that will hinder the jury vote. I don’t even think UK and Ireland televoting will get Lithuania over the line this year either.


This post has been edited by ScottyEm: Mar 17 2019, 01:21 AM
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 17 2019, 11:37 AM
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Semi 1 Early Predicta

POS. TELE JURY
01 01 03 Cyprus Tamta Replay
02 04 01 Greece Katerine Duska Better Love
03 03 02 Hungary Joci Pápai Az én apám
04 05 04 Belgium Eliot Wake Up
05 06 06 Serbia Nevena Božović Kruna
06 02 13 Iceland Hatari Hatriđ mun sigra
07 07 09 Czech Republic Lake Malawi Friend of a Friend
08 12 05 Slovenia Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl Sebi
09 09 08 Estonia Victor Crone Storm
10 11 07 Portugal Conan Osíris Telemóveis
11 08 11 Poland Tulia Pali się
12 16 10 Australia Kate Miller-Heidke Zero Gravity
13 14 12 Georgia Oto Nemsadze Sul tsin iare
14 10 16 San Marino Serhat Say Na Na Na
15 13 15 Belarus ZENA Like It
16 17 14 Montenegro D-Moll Heaven
17 15 17 Finland Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman Look Away

I don't think Iceland will be quite so polarising as people think as it does have a great beat, great show and they are very likeable. The televoters will love them especially in such a weak semi, and the jury will either love or hate them (AWS didn't place dead last in 2018 with the juries and the televoters placed them 5th for example). I think there will be quite a bit of differences between the juries and televoters on who should qualify because there are just so many slow songs lol. Montenero and Finland seem like the obvious last placers to me.


This post has been edited by cantthinkofaname: Mar 17 2019, 11:37 AM
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LexC
post Mar 17 2019, 01:04 PM
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I do not share this forum’s confidence in either Hungary or Belgium being surefire qualifiers!
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AdamAloud
post Mar 17 2019, 01:27 PM
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Semi One

Overall - Televote - Jury

01 | 02 | 01 Slovenia
02 | 01 | 03 Cyprus
03 | 03 | 02 Greece
04 | 04 | 05 Portugal
05 | 09 | 04 Estonia
06 | 05 | 08 Hungary
07 | 06 | 10 Serbia
08 | 11 | 06 Australia
09 | 12 | 09 Czech Republic
10 | 07 | 14 Poland
---
11 | 14 | 07 Belgium
12 | 08 | 15 Iceland
13 | 10 | 13 San Marino
14 | 13 | 12 Belarus
15 | 15 | 11 Finland
16 | 16 | 17 Montenegro
17 | 17 | 16 Georgia

Semi Two

Overall - Televote - Jury

01 | 01 | 01 The Netherlands
02 | 04 | 03 Malta
03 | 06 | 02 Sweden
04 | 02 | 06 Russia
05 | 05 | 04 Azerbaijan
06 | 03 | 07 Switzerland
07 | 09 | 05 Armenia
08 | 08 | 09 Albania
09 | 12 | 10 Romania
10 | 07 | 15 Norway
---
11 | 10 | 13 Ireland
12 | 11 | 14 Denmark
13 | 17 | 08 Austria
14 | 14 | 12 North Macedonia
15 | 16 | 11 Croatia
16 | 13 | 18 Lithuania
17 | 15 | 17 Moldova
18 | 18 | 16 Latvia
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gooddelta
post Mar 17 2019, 01:29 PM
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Yeah I agree, Belgium will scrape through at best probably.

I can definitely see Iceland getting pretty good jury support actually, it has a lot to it as a package. It will be divisive but I think a lot of jurors will like it. Televoters will love it I'm sure.

I hope the juries and televoters are kind to Kate M-H! I'd be so disappointed to see Australia DNQ with this.
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J🐠hq
post Mar 17 2019, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Mar 17 2019, 01:29 PM) *
I can definitely see Iceland getting pretty good jury support actually, it has a lot to it as a package. It will be divisive but I think a lot of jurors will like it. Televoters will love it I'm sure.


I’d go as far as saying I think it can continue a pattern of Iceland coming 2nd in years ending with 9. I expect it to be a HUGE televote favourite, the people it will appeal to it will really appeal to and it’s not the sort of song that will split votes as it’s so different.
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LexC
post Mar 17 2019, 03:08 PM
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Here's roughly how I see Semi One shaping up (order listed does not necessarily reflect the finishing order)

Safely through

Cyprus
Greece

Semi-Safely through

Estonia
Serbia
Australia

Wildcards

Iceland
Portugal

Borderline - IN

Slovenia
Czech Republic
San Marino

Borderline - OUT

Hungary
Belarus
Belgium

Struggling

Poland
Finland

No Chance

Montenegro
Georgia
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nickthenoodle
post Mar 17 2019, 03:25 PM
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These didn't turn out as I expected and will be a funny reference point come May
Semi 1
01 Greece
02 Iceland
03 Cyprus
04 Belgium
05 Portugal
06 Slovenia
07 Estonia
08 Hungary
09 Serbia
10 Australia
11 Poland
12 Belarus
13 San Marino
14 Czech Republic
15 Finland
16 Montenegro
17 Georgia

Only songs I would really rule out are the bottom 3 - I can even see San Marino springing a surprise.

Semi 2
01 Netherlands
02 Switzerland
03 Sweden
04 Malta
05 Russia
06 Armenia
07 Norway
08 Azerbaijan
09 Albania
10 Denmark
11 Romania
12 Lithuania
13 Croatia
14 Macedonia
15 Ireland
16 Moldova
17 Latvia
18 Austria

I'm pretty confident of the top 8 qualifiers but could see Romania or Croatia getting in over Denmark. I do think Albania could also do really well in this semi given how much it should stand out.

Final (Why have I done this)

01 Switzerland
02 Netherlands
03 Greece
04 Iceland
05 Cyprus
06 Italy
07 Russia
08 Sweden
09 Malta
10 Armenia
11 Spain
12 Portugal
13 Norway
14 Albania
15 Azerbaijan
16 Slovenia
17 Serbia
18 Hungary
19 France
20 Australia
21 UK
22 Belgium
23 Estonia
24 Denmark
25 Germany
26 Israel

I'm really unsure of the winner at the moment and do think staging/hype could send it to any of the top 9 really, apart from Russia. I just got the best vibes from Switzerland when I first heard it and do think it will appeal to casuals more than the other upbeat songs and Netherlands.
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Brightest Blue
post Mar 19 2019, 09:07 PM
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Greece will pull through and take the overall crown
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Liаm
post Mar 19 2019, 09:46 PM
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Semi 1
01 Greece
02 Cyprus
03 Slovenia
04 Estonia
05 Portugal
06 Hungary
07 Iceland
08 Australia
09 Czech Republic
10 Poland

11 San Marino
12 Belgium
13 Serbia
14 Belarus
15 Finland
16 Montengro
17 Georgia

Really cannot call this semi, exciting!! I'm almost certain of the top 4 being through, I can see Slovenia's cool vibe being a fairly big hitter. Between 5-14 or so, I think they're all in contention, I'd like to think Portugal will be fine but that along with Iceland feel quite polarising and could go either way.

Semi 2
01 Netherlands
02 Sweden
03 Russia
04 Switzerland
05 Albania
06 Malta
07 Azerbaijan
08 Armenia
09 Norway
10 Croatia

11 Denmark
12 Romania
13 Lithuania
14 Ireland
15 Macedonia
16 Latvia
17 Moldova
18 Austria

Bit easier to call, fairly certain on the top 9 but I could see 10-13 all fighting for that last spot. Can't see past Netherlands for the overall win, I think Switzerland might be being a bit overhyped and may flop a bit a la Occidentali's Karma and "only" come like 7th
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Tangela
post Mar 19 2019, 10:01 PM
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I think Cyprus are being overestimated this time
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ScottyEm
post Mar 20 2019, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Mar 17 2019, 01:29 PM) *
I hope the juries and televoters are kind to Kate M-H! I'd be so disappointed to see Australia DNQ with this.


It’s the only NF song I’ve heard that made me think “winner”. On reflection, perhaps not so now but it’s high impact and on the right side of crazy. I think this is getting a lot of underserved and unexpected shade from the Euro community. I also think the bookies have got this wrong.

This is surely SAILING through?


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gooddelta
post Mar 20 2019, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(Moses @ Mar 19 2019, 10:01 PM) *
I think Cyprus are being overestimated this time


I agree. I don't think it stands out in its genre as much as Fuego did. I could quite easily see it getting a 'shock' 11-16th style finish at the moment (though of course Fuego was elevated so much by the live performance so who knows).

QUOTE(ScottyEm @ Mar 20 2019, 09:07 PM) *
It’s the only NF song I’ve heard that made me think “winner”. On reflection, perhaps not so now but it’s high impact and on the right side of crazy. I think this is getting a lot of underserved and unexpected shade from the Euro community. I also think the bookies have got this wrong.

This is surely SAILING through?


I'm quite surprised that a lot of the fandom don't seem keen on it too. I'm not expecting a win by any stretch but I seriously would not be able to fathom a DNQ for a great song with an important message by such a fantastic and extremely talented artist that really stands out from the pack positively in my opinion.

I know a lot of the community remain disappointed that Australia didn't go with 2000 and Whatever though. I still find that overrated honestly - I love the artist, their style and the message of the song but the actual melody and performance were both seriously lacking, it was like Unklejam reheating a Black Box b-side.
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Ryan.
post Mar 20 2019, 09:57 PM
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I think Australia's hopes could be completely transformed if they come up with a brand new stage show from scratch. As it stands, it unfortunately comes across like a joke performance that massively distracts from the quality vocals and decent song that there is. Instead all that we have in our minds (if listening) or are seeing is a pastiche of some of the big joke act performances over the years. I know the meaning behind it but it does so much more harm than good.

Judging from the videos provided on the Eurovision channel, if people tuned in to them and watched them all for the first time they'd think that this year's joke act is Australia over any other I think and that's not what they should be portraying.
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LexC
post Mar 20 2019, 10:20 PM
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And all indications are that they're changing the staging iirc? There's definitely something there but they need it to be a "spectacle" and on the right side of over the top.

TBH I think the fans are just salty because it's Australia so I wouldn't read too much into it.
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Liаm
post Mar 20 2019, 10:47 PM
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Agreed, Kate MH absolutely has the ability to pull off an amazing show and I hope I'm underpredicting her - I didn't know they were looking very likely to change the staging!

Eurofans are just ridiculous over Australia, so that doesn't help. They all lapped up opera when it was La forza yet now it's a "joke" just because it's a bit unconventional and mixes opera into a pop song and has crazy staging. The dress just kind of feel a bit *too* La forza, but as said I can't see it being too difficult to do something that's suitably OTT for Eurovision without taking the piss.
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