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> Q4 Predictions 2019
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ThePensmith
post Aug 6 2019, 12:03 PM
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The first New Music Friday of September is only four weeks away, so I felt it time to launch the Q4 Predictions topic for this year. Before we go any further I feel it'd be good to look back on the predictions I made in the 2018 topic last year (correct predictions in bold) - feel free to review yours as you see fit...

QUOTE(ThePensmith @ Aug 9 2018, 03:47 PM) *
- Little Mix's fifth album will be another huge success for them, with another number one single to boot.
- George Ezra will have a second number one - possibly on the back of a Strictly or X Factor performance - with 'Hold My Girl'.
- Jess Glynne's second album will be as big as - if not bigger - than her debut, with another chart topper or two to her name.
- Take That's 'reworked' greatest hits album will be one of the big sellers in the run up to Christmas.
- Olly Murs' sixth album will be his fifth number one album in a row and produce his first top 10 hit since 'Up' in 2014 (hey, a fan is allowed to dream big).
- Cheryl's new single will be launched with a big performance somewhere but will struggle, and be reported about by Dan Wootton with all the unrestrained glee he usually reserves for her these days.


Oh dear. Still, two - three at a push - out of six I was right on about laugh.gif

I'm going to be a tad more cautious about what I predict this year, but here's what I think might happen...

- Little Mix's new album will be a double album of new material and a best of like Olly Murs did last year. I predict that coinciding with their tour in the autumn, it'll be their last before they announce a break of some description.
- Amanda Holden's album to be launched with a performance on BGT Champions that is savaged. Album to chart at something like #58 and she'll throw a paddy on Heart FM when the midweeks come out about how Philip Schofield is an evil sorcerer who has put a curse on her or something.
- Rihanna will be the mystery come back kid that everyone's talking about and deliver her biggest single/album in years.
- Ed Sheeran will attempt to run for Christmas number one again by recording a duet with Siri on one of his album tracks or something.
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Jordan Lee
post Aug 6 2019, 12:10 PM
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Adele will come back in October / November. She抣l get the biggest album of year with her follow up. She抣l do the final of Strictly.

(More to come as I think throughout the day).
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WhoOdyssey
post Aug 6 2019, 12:10 PM
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John Lewis will get Lewis Capaldi for their Christmas Ad song and it'll get to #1.
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365
post Aug 6 2019, 12:11 PM
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Little Mix have said they have no plan to release a new album though?

Also, Rihanna hasn't released an single in years!
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Stewie
post Aug 6 2019, 12:46 PM
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- Album sales over the Xmas period will be the lowest since current records began

- Now! 104, xmas addition will be the worst selling xmas edition, EVER and will barely go Platinum (maybe even below 300k) - after, they'll announce that they'll go back to the 2 a year (April and Nov)

- Mariah Carey will finally get the Christmas no1 with AIWFCIY

- No album released in Q4 for the xmas market will sell over 350,000 (unless Adele releases then all bets are off)

- With Brexit in full swing and the Tory party in Government with The Brexit Party, we'll be so right wing that due to 'utterly silly PC nonsense' Gary Glitter's 'Rock And Roll Xmas' will be readded to Xmas playlists and will be used on a Tory/Brexit party xmas message....


This post has been edited by Stewie: Aug 6 2019, 12:46 PM
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Bjork
post Aug 6 2019, 12:51 PM
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do we know who's the mystery female comeback this Friday? Adele? Rihanna?
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Stewie
post Aug 6 2019, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Aug 6 2019, 01:51 PM) *
do we know who's the mystery female comeback this Friday? Adele? Rihanna?


I believe it's Rihanna... Saw a few bits about her on Twitter.
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Charis
post Aug 6 2019, 01:08 PM
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westlife album prediction?
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T Boy
post Aug 6 2019, 01:13 PM
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The charts will remain uninteresting so next year they抣l introduce more doomed rules to try and make them exciting again.
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Jordan Lee
post Aug 6 2019, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE(Charis @ Aug 6 2019, 02:08 PM) *
westlife album prediction?


75-90K I抦 thinking big physical seller probably stay top ten from release week till Xmas then have a short chart life after that kinda like how Buble does he usually goes like 1-2-4-4-4-3𣯘9-12-29 doesn抰 he (well his last two lol). So I think it抣l perform like that.


This post has been edited by Jordan Lee: Aug 6 2019, 01:28 PM
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Charis
post Aug 6 2019, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(Jordan Lee @ Aug 6 2019, 04:24 PM) *
75-90K I抦 thinking big physical seller probably stay top ten from release week till Xmas then have a short chart life after that kinda like how Buble does he usually goes like 1-2-4-4-4-3𣯘9-12-29 doesn抰 he (well his last two lol). So I think it抣l perform like that.


75-90 in total or first week? ohmy.gif ohmy.gif
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WhoOdyssey
post Aug 6 2019, 01:44 PM
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QUOTE(Charis @ Aug 6 2019, 02:42 PM) *
75-90 in total or first week? ohmy.gif ohmy.gif

First week I'd imagine
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pippa
post Aug 6 2019, 01:45 PM
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Michael Buble likely to take a top 10 position once again with his Christmas album.
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Stewie
post Aug 6 2019, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Aug 6 2019, 02:13 PM) *
The charts will remain uninteresting so next year they抣l introduce more doomed rules to try and make them exciting again.


Best way to do that is to completely ban free streams from the charts. You're not allowed free CDs to chart so why can free streams count.


This post has been edited by Stewie: Aug 6 2019, 01:46 PM
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Br
post Aug 6 2019, 01:47 PM
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I really don't get why anyone thinks reducing or banning free streams from the chart would make literally any difference. Free streamers don't have fundamentally different taste to paid streamers. The OCC already changed the rules to make paid streaming much more heavily weighted than free streaming and it's changed essentially nothing (apart from making Apple Music a bit more influential, but the Apple charts are mostly the same as the Spotify charts).
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Stewie
post Aug 6 2019, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(Br @ Aug 6 2019, 02:47 PM) *
I really don't get why anyone thinks reducing or banning free streams from the chart would make literally any difference. Free streamers don't have fundamentally different taste to paid streamers. The OCC already changed the rules to make paid streaming much more heavily weighted than free streaming and it's changed essentially nothing (apart from making Apple Music a bit more influential, but the Apple charts are mostly the same as the Spotify charts).


Essentially, free streams is like a free CD. It's worthless and shouldn't count. Spotify in the UK is the biggest market player and I would say about 70-80% of their 'plays' are from free streams.

I'm not sure why anyone would think 'free' should count as a sale.

Would be very interesting to see who is more into free streams and brought streams.

My guess? Kids, children = free streams. 16+ paid streams. I think if you took away (completely) free streams, you might see a more balanced chart.

If I were to give you 500 free copies of my CD, do you think that should be included as a sale in the charts? I don't think it should as it's kinda cheating.


This post has been edited by Stewie: Aug 6 2019, 02:00 PM
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Br
post Aug 6 2019, 02:01 PM
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...but why would that make the chart more exciting as you're claiming it would? I'm not arguing whether or not it should be done.

Apple Music is 100% paid streaming, tell me if you think this looks more 'balanced'. If there's any significant difference at all it's in favour of the music that you're presumably not a fan of.

I think you're definitely (massively) overestimating how much of Spotify's userbase only uses the free version as well. A Spotify subscription is not an unreasonably high price for that many people to refuse to pay it.
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Jordan Lee
post Aug 6 2019, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(Charis @ Aug 6 2019, 02:42 PM) *
75-90 in total or first week? ohmy.gif ohmy.gif


First week sorry laugh.gif laugh.gif I wasn抰 very clear.

In total I抦 thinking maybes like 500K possibly? Depends how well it sells into the following year but should clear 300K by end of 2019.
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Stewie
post Aug 6 2019, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(Br @ Aug 6 2019, 03:01 PM) *
...but why would that make the chart more exciting as you're claiming it would? I'm not arguing whether or not it should be done.


In hope that we wouldn't be bored to death with 40 of the same sounding tracks.

If you listen to the current top 40 from beginning to end, I don't think I'd be able to tell the difference between any of them.

Fundamentally, surely at the end of the day. Giveaways, free 'stuff' shouldn't be counted?

I think the UK charts is one of the very few companies that 'celebrate' the giving away of art for free.

We're off subject now, so, hmm... yeah, as someone said, the charts in Q4 will be just as dull as recent years.
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PeteFromLeeds
post Aug 6 2019, 02:19 PM
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...you've completely ignored what Br was saying? If only paid streams counted, it's very likely that more urban songs would enter the chart, not less. Is that what you're wanting to happen?
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