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> Does anyone here honestly think Boris will lose his seat?
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:01 PM
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Assuming he stands there and haven't heard anything yet to suggest he's not. Assume BXP will stand there and The Lib-Dems will put up a good fight. A 5000 majority isn't huge but there are a lot less majorities in the country.


2017 GE.

Conservative Boris Johnson 23,716
Labour Vincent Low 18,682
Lib. Dem Rosina Robson 1,835
UKIP Lizzy Kemp 1,577
Green Mark Keir 884


Majority 5,034


This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 4 2019, 11:12 PM
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:04 PM
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Well election expert Curtice reckons he'll be okay due to the "PM Factor" The fact that he's the PM will make many people vote for him whereas had he not been PM the seat could be lost.

This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 4 2019, 11:05 PM
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Botchia
post Nov 4 2019, 11:07 PM
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It would be a possibility if the LD and Greens stand aside and the Brexit Party stand against him.
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM
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QUOTE(Botchia @ Nov 4 2019, 11:07 PM) *
It would be a possibility if the LD and Greens stand aside and the Brexit Party stand against him.



Yes I agree. If Labour joined them too to make it a 2 way contest then he could be in big trouble.
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Brett-Butler
post Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM
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No, I'd be surprised if he did. the PM bounce and all that.
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:09 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM) *
No, I'd be surprised if he did. the PM bounce and all that.



Would be the story of the night, the week, the month and the year if he was ousted. biggrin.gif
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Suedehead2
post Nov 4 2019, 11:16 PM
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The weekend before the 1997 election, the Observer published the results of an opinion poll they had commissioned in a string of key seats. It showed that there was a possibility that Michael Portillo could lose his previously very safe seat. The following Thursday, he lost his seat. Whether that poll contributed the the result can never be ascertained for certain, but it is a distinct possibility.

We know that Labour have already done a lot of campaigning in that seat over the last two years and they will be campaigning hard in the coming weeks. An opinion poll showing them at least to be within touching distance of winning could lead to a very memorable moment on election night.
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Suedehead2
post Nov 4 2019, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Nov 4 2019, 11:08 PM) *
No, I'd be surprised if he did. the PM bounce and all that.

The PM has indeed normally done well in their seat even when their party has done badly. Look at John Major's Huntingdon in 1997. However, there was a 4% swing to Labour in Theresa May's Maidenhead last time.
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JüpaHulaHula
post Nov 4 2019, 11:39 PM
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If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid.

The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being.
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:57 PM
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QUOTE(JüpaHulaHula @ Nov 4 2019, 11:39 PM) *
If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid.

The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being.


TBH I can't really see him having time to campaign that much in his own seat. He'll probably leave it to Tory activists on the ground to go knocking on doors.
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common sense
post Nov 4 2019, 11:57 PM
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QUOTE(JüpaHulaHula @ Nov 4 2019, 11:39 PM) *
If only! Depends how he campaigns and how many face to faces he can manage to avoid.

The more people who can see what a disgusting liar and charlatan he is in person, the better chance! Absolute disgrace of a human being.



Don't you like him? ohmy.gif biggrin.gif


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Bré
post Nov 4 2019, 11:59 PM
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It'd be hilarious if he lost but I think it's very unlikely. If he was really in danger of losing he'd presumably move himself to a more solidly Tory seat.
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common sense
post Nov 5 2019, 12:04 AM
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QUOTE(Bré @ Nov 4 2019, 11:59 PM) *
It'd be hilarious if he lost but I think it's very unlikely. If he was really in danger of losing he'd presumably move himself to a more solidly Tory seat.



Well it may be hard to predict until very near the time then too late to change.
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common sense
post Nov 5 2019, 12:06 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Nov 4 2019, 11:21 PM) *
The PM has indeed normally done well in their seat even when their party has done badly. Look at John Major's Huntingdon in 1997.



His majority was reduced from 36,000 in 1992 to 18,000 in 1997.
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Suedehead2
post Nov 5 2019, 12:41 AM
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QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Nov 5 2019, 12:06 AM) *
His majority was reduced from 36,000 in 1992 to 18,000 in 1997.

But the swing against him was much lower than the general anti-Tory swing. It was quite high by the standards of previous elections, but relatively modest by the standard of that election.
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vidcapper
post Nov 5 2019, 05:36 AM
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Has *any* PM ever lost their seat in a GE?
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common sense
post Nov 5 2019, 07:57 AM
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From Wiki.


No. This is the closest actually.

Arthur Balfour was the Prime Minister until December 1905. He quit, taking his party into opposition. Liberal leader Henry Campbell Bannerman succeeded him and called a general election.

In this ensuing February 1906 general election, Mr Balfour lost his Manchester seat, but was back in the Commons weeks later when he won the safe City of London by-election created by the deliberate vacancy.


This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:58 AM
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Envoirment
post Nov 5 2019, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(Botchia @ Nov 4 2019, 11:07 PM) *
It would be a possibility if the LD and Greens stand aside and the Brexit Party stand against him.


This is pretty much the only way. It would be quite the shock, but I feel even with the above he'll manage to get the seat, albeit by a small margin - perhaps as small as Justine Greening's in the last election.
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common sense
post Nov 5 2019, 07:21 PM
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I think IDS could well lose his seat. He only had a majority of 2,342 at the last election in Chingford and Woodford Green.

Labour and the Lib-Dems will both try to unseat him.


This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:36 PM
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common sense
post Nov 5 2019, 07:25 PM
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Here are the 10 most marginal seats in the UK.


1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew Sinn Féin 4
2. Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson Labour 42
3 North Warwickshire Daniel Byles Conservative 54
4 Camborne and Redruth George Eustice Conservative 66
5 Bolton West Julie Hilling Labour 92
5 Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price Conservative 92
7 Oldham East and Saddleworth* Phil Woolas Labour 103
8 Hendon Matthew Offord Conservative 106
9 Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield Labour 165
10 Solihull Lorely Burt Liberal Democrat 175


This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: Nov 5 2019, 07:32 PM
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