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> What will be the "Portillo Moment" of the 2019 election?
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Brett-Butler
post Nov 26 2019, 11:25 PM
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If you're not familiar with the term, a "Portillo moment" happens when a leading or well known MP ends up losing their seat in dramatic fashion, named for when Michael Portillo lost his seat in the 1997 General Election. Some big "Portillo moments" that have happened in recent elections include Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 and Nick Clegg & Alex Salmond losing theirs in 2017.

So which "Portillo Moment" can you see happening in next month's General Election? I think it's a given that some of the well-known Labour & Tory defectors are likely to have a hard time retaining their seats - Anna Soubry is a given, but Chukka Umuna could also have something to cry about come election night.

I've also seen some predictions that long-in-the-tooth MP Dennis Skinner, who would become Father of The House if he was re-elected, could lose his Bolsover seat. Skinner is one of the few Labour Leavers, which means that in a contituency that also voted leave, he could see his vote whittled down by two different parties.
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ChristmaSteve201
post Nov 26 2019, 11:34 PM
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Edited.

This post has been edited by Steve201: Nov 26 2019, 11:36 PM
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ChristmaSteve201
post Nov 26 2019, 11:35 PM
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Skinner would be my main one which would be a shock given the length of time he has held the seat and would symbolise labours problems with their core base.

Also Ian Duncan Smith would be a great moment if labour could throw the creator of the UC system out just as they've won the argument against the tories on that.

Also Dodds missing out to John Finucane in North Belfast would be a shock and it would be a bad night for the DUP in Belfast as a whole as they would likely lose South Belfast then too.
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Envoirment
post Nov 26 2019, 11:41 PM
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I'd say Emily Thornberry losing her seat to the Lib Dems is a possibility.

Boris Johnson losing his seat would be quite something. The focus on his consituency this time round and the amount of candidates standing could provide a real big shock there. Although he'll likely keep it.
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post Nov 27 2019, 12:03 AM
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QUOTE(Envoirment @ Nov 26 2019, 11:41 PM) *
I'd say Emily Thornberry losing her seat to the Lib Dems is a possibility.

Boris Johnson losing his seat would be quite something. The focus on his consituency this time round and the amount of candidates standing could provide a real big shock there. Although he'll likely keep it.



Neither Emily nor Boris will lose their seats.
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post Nov 27 2019, 12:04 AM
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Dennis Skinner is likely to go after almost 50 years as an MP. He's 87 though so doubt he'll be too bothered.

Zac Goldsmith is virtually certain to lose to the Lib-Dems.


I'd love failed leader IDS to go but he may hang on.


This post has been edited by common sense: Nov 27 2019, 12:11 AM
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Harve
post Nov 27 2019, 12:13 AM
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Think there could be a lot of seats turning Tory for the first time ever in the era of universal suffrage, even if the Tory majority isn't that big.

So perhaps not in terms of big politicians, but the following are all at risk, with many near-guaranteed Tory gains, and will be notable because of their industrial/manufacturing history being intertwined with Labour's. The year is the last time they elected a non-Labour MP.

1918 Rother Valley
1922 Leigh
1922 Bolsover (Dennis Skinner)
1922 Don Valley (Caroline Flint)
1929 Bassetlaw
1932 Wakefield
1935 Sedgefield (ex-Tony Blair)
1935 Stoke-On-Trent North
1935 Stoke-On-Trent Central
1935 Bishop Auckland
1935 Penistone
1935 West Bromwich West
1935 Wrexham
1945 Great Grimsby (Melanie Onn)
1963 Hartlepool
1970 Dudley North (ex-Ian Austin)


This post has been edited by Harve: Nov 27 2019, 12:14 AM
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post Nov 27 2019, 12:14 AM
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Electoral calculus predicts that Anna Soubry will lose her seat.
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vidsanta
post Nov 27 2019, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 27 2019, 12:04 AM) *
Dennis Skinner is likely to go after almost 50 years as an MP. He's 87 though so doubt he'll be too bothered.


I simply cannot see him losing his seat - the only way he'll leave the HoC is in a wooden box... tongue.gif
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Suedehead2
post Nov 27 2019, 09:05 AM
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A Portillo moment is about more than just the prominence of the MP losing their seat. After all, Shirley Williams lost her seat (as a Labour Cabinet member) in 1979 but nobody has ever talked of a Williams moment.

Portillo's defeat was particularly significant for two reasons. First, Portillo was despised by many people outside the Tory party. He was seen as one of the leading proponents of Thatcherism still at the top of the party even after John Major took over. He also lost what had previously been seen as a rock-solid Tory seat, so the result helped to underline what a dreadful night the Tories were having.

Zac Goldsmith's defeat would not rank anywhere near Portillo's. He has a majority of just 45 and is a strong Leave supporter in a seat that voted Remain by a huge margin. He is also only a junior Minister who has never been in the Cabinet. The defeat of Iain Duncan Smith or Johnson himself would, of course, be worthy successors to the Portillo moment.

If some of the former Labour strongholds are lost, that would help to illustrate how much politics has changed this century. After all, Labour lost the last election but won Canterbury and Kensington & Chelsea, both seats previously regarded as about as safe for the Tories as they come.
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Tawdry Hepburn
post Nov 27 2019, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 27 2019, 12:14 AM) *
Electoral calculus predicts that Anna Soubry will lose her seat.


I mean, this is real Captain Obvious territory.
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post Nov 27 2019, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Nov 27 2019, 09:05 AM) *
The defeat of Iain Duncan Smith or Johnson himself would, of course, be worthy successors to the Portillo moment.



IDS is the likelier of the two but Electoral Calculus doesn't think he'll lose his either.


This post has been edited by common sense: Nov 27 2019, 09:59 AM
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Doctor Blind
post Nov 27 2019, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(common sense @ Nov 27 2019, 09:57 AM) *
IDS is the likelier of the two but Electoral Calculus doesn't think he'll lose his either.


To be fair, EC doesn't take into account tactical voting. I think I got IBS to quite easily lose his seat in that circumstance.
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Crazy Chris-tmas
post Nov 27 2019, 08:10 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Bitch @ Nov 27 2019, 07:18 PM) *
To be fair, EC doesn't take into account tactical voting. I think I got IBS to quite easily lose his seat in that circumstance.



IBS. Love it. We'll see.
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