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> Politics in 2020 - Predictions, It's predictions time
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Suedehead2
post Dec 29 2019, 10:37 AM
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It’s that time of year again when we make our predictions for the political year ahead. I don’t usually get round to it but this year I have dusted off the crystal ball to uncover some of next year’s headlines.

January

The report into Russian interference in the democratic process is published. It concludes that the Kremlin did interfere in the referendum and may have tipped the balance in favour of the Leave campaign. Boris Johnson shrugs it off and the UK officially leaves the EU on 31 January.


February

Boris Johnson agrees to appear before the Commons liaison Committee but fails to turn up, claiming that he was too busy. Later in the month he announces that PMQs will be reduced to one ten-minute session per even month. Chris defends this move claiming that his pal is a very busy man.

Johnson’s ban on the use of the B-word by minister comes into effect on the first of the month. Suedehead consider lifting his personal ban on the use of the word just to be contrary.


March

Labour elect Rebecca Long-Bailey as their new leader. The Daily Mail claim that she has only been elected because “politically correct Labour” wanted a woman leader. The Liberal Democrats elect Ed Davey as their new leader. The Daily Mail ridicule the party for electing the only white man in the contest.


April

Rumours start to circulate around Westminster that three women are claiming that Boris Johnson is the father of their child. Johnson punches a journalist who asks about the rumours, landing him in hospital. Chris defends Johnson, saying he has been under a lot of pressure. Despite being questioned by police, Johnson does not resign.


May

In the council elections Labour lose approximately 100 seats. The Tories lose 300 seats in an election described by the Daily Mail as a triumph for Boris Johnson. Immediately after the elections, Johnson is questioned by police about his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri. He doesn’t resign.



June

Leaked emails reveal that the Conservative Party received hundreds of small donations (just small enough for them not to have been declared) from far-right organisations, including some from overseas. Boris Johnson shrugs it off and the Daily Mail forgets to report it.


July

Boris Johnson is forced to extend the transition period as it becomes clear that a trade deal will not be complete by the end of the year. The Daily Mail blames opposition MPs even though the House of Commons has been denied any part in the negotiations by the revised version of the Withdrawal Act. Johnson does not resign despite being forced, again, to do something he said he would never do.


August

It is reported that, at one of his weekly meetings with the Queen, Boris Johnson launched a foul-mouthed tirade against the monarch. The Daily Mail calls for a thorough investigation, suggesting that a charge of treason should follow - against the person who leaked the details of the conversation. Johnson does not resign.


September

In his speech to the Liberal Democrat conference in Brighton, Ed Davey announces that leadership is boring and he intends to resign with immediate effect.

The government publishes the legislation to abolish the Fixed Term Parliament Act. The opposition protest that the legislation would effectively abolish term limits but it is passed anyway by the end of the year. The timing of the next election, previously due in May 2024, is now completely unpredictable, as is its existence. Attempts to launch a judicial review fail due to earlier changes to the process made by the government.


October

Boris Johnson is accused of tipping off major donors to the Conservative Party about which companies are about to be awarded government contracts, enabling them to make substantial sums by buying shares in those companies and selling shares in their competitors. Despite strong evidence supporting these allegations, Johnson doesn’t resign.


November

In an unexpected shake-up of press regulation, Dominic Cummings is appointed editor-in-chief of every national newspaper in the country. This is in addition to his role as Director General of the BBC which he took up in March.


December

Boris Johnson is recorded swearing at the Downing Street cat. He resigns and retires from public life immediately.
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Iz~
post Dec 29 2019, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 29 2019, 10:37 AM) *
[/b]Labour elect Rebecca Long-Bailey as their new leader. The Daily Mail claim that she has only been elected because “politically correct Labour” wanted a woman leader. The Liberal Democrats elect Ed Davey as their new leader. The Daily Mail ridicule the party for electing the only white man in the contest.


prematurely wincing at the likelihood of this.

I predict the Labour Party will, after much deliberation, will choose Lisa Nandy to be their leader, indirectly causing the birth of a new left party led by RLB despite pleas from all concerned bar those at the top of each side to stick together for once. Nandy's opposition in the remainder of 2020 will be limited to reminding Johnson to invest in the areas her party want to win back as backbench Tories guffaw over PMQs at an ever weaker opposition.

meanwhile, the Withdrawal Agreement will pass, some sections of society will rejoice at being out of the EU and say 'see now remoaners, that wasn't so bad now was it?', forgetting that the transition period is still in effect. It'll all go to shit in July when it becomes apparent that Tories supposed to be negotiating trade deals have been sitting on their hands for six months but they don't drop in the polls because no one else looks like any credible opposition. Economic uncertainty will loom again with depressing familiarity at the end of the year until a miraculous trade deal is pulled out at the eleventh hour and everyone is so relieved that they fail to read the small print that sees American corporations take a huge stake in any remaining parts of our social services for 2021.

I agree the Tories will dominate in the local elections by gaining an unprecedented amount of councils and the media when celebrating this will completely forget to remind people that the majority of councils up this time are Labour defenses mere political minutes after a horrible defeat, additionally the last vestiges of local elections from which the last results dated from beautiful halcyon pre-referendum times.
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Brett-Butler
post Dec 29 2019, 11:17 AM
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I'll start by going through all my political predictions from 2019, and go through just how wrong I was about each one:

QUOTE

Brexit - In February 2019, parliament votes through Theresa May's Brexit deal, with a few minor alterations. The majority of the Conservative Party (with Kenneth Clarke a noted rebel), and a small but significant minority of the Labour Party vote in favour, as May's decision to play a game of chicken by continuously delaying presentation of the bill to the parliament, which spooks a lot of MPs into voting for it, scared of what happen in a No Deal scenario. The UK withdraws from Europe officially in September, and with the exception of some major tabloid scare stories over the summer months about 10 hour waits to get through passport checks in airports, appears to go through without many major hitches.

UK Politics - Following the Brexit vote, there the usual tabloid scrum for a new "centrist" party, this time led by Lord Adonis and other "Peoples Vote" people, who begin the calls for a People's Vote for the UK to rejoin the EU the moment the UK leaves (having failed to get a 2nd referendum for the terms of the withdrawal agreement). Once again, this is hot air, and the year ends without any other major political party breaking through the Labour/Conservative duopoly.


The UK's exit from the EU hasn't happened yet, which is due to happen at the end of January. A withdrawal agreement did pass in September though, so generously given myself a point for that.

I failed to predict the rise, and quick fall, of Change UK, although I was right that no other party failed to topple the Labour/Conservative duopoly.

QUOTE

In by-election news, the Conservatives win the by-election in Peterborough caused by the resignation of Fiona Onasanya for perverting the course of justice. There are several other by-elections fought during the year, all of which are won by the same party that stood down.
Labour won the Peterborough by-election, although the Tories subsequently won it in the General Election in September. Of the other two by-elections, the Lib Dems won Brecon from the Tories, although once again this reverted to the Tories following the General Election.

QUOTE

One story that begins to emerge from the by-elections is the slight re-surgence of The SDP, who start to win back their deposits during the year, having won tiny pockets of support from disillusioned Labourites, Tories & Ukippers. This causes the tabloids to talk about the re-rise of the SDP, which of course does not happen.


Got this one fabulously wrong. Their sitting MEP lost his deposit in the Peterborough by-election, whilst in the General Election, their 20 candidates won an average of 165 votes each. My own personal provisional support of the party also dissipated during the year once they decided to make themselves the political wing of Spiked Online, as well as letting certain members of UKIP like Lisa Duffy join the party, and some of their stances on religious freedom.

QUOTE

UKIP finally goes full-fash, changing their rules so that ex-BNP members can join & appoints Tommy Robinson into a major role. They subsequently lose every single seat they are running for in the 2019 council election.
Although Tommy Robinson doesn't join them, their total conversion to far-right completes. Surprisingly, they still held on to 31 seats they were defending, although keep in mind that the council elections happened before the Brexit Party had a chance to mobilise, hence their wipeout at the European elections.

QUOTE

There will be no General Election in 2019, and all major party leaders will be as they are come the end of the year. Labour/Tories will continually jostle for top spot in opinion polls during the year, ending with 39% Conservatives, 38% Labour, with no other party on more than 10%


Fabulously wrong again - General Election in December, all three parties have different leaders (or in the process of changing it), The Tories' % in the General election was higher, Labour's much lower, and the Lib Dem's was above 10%.

QUOTE

Northern Ireland - After the Conservatives pull the plug on their supply & demand relationship with the DUP after the latter refuses to vote with May on her Brexit deal, they set their sights back on NI, and the Assembly gets back up and running with a few conditions - the mandatory coalition system is abolished, and so is the petition of concern. In the subsequent election, a unionist majority emerges, with the DUP/UUP forming the government, with Sinn Fein as the official opposition. Serious calls for Irish reunification begins, as a result of complications on the border as a result of Brexit coming through, but as by the end of the year there has been no clear opinion poll suggesting a majority in favour of reunification, no poll happens this year.
I was right that the DUP wouldn't support the Brexit deal, but not much else.

QUOTE

Europe - In the European elections, there is an unprecedented rise of populists and far-right politicians entering the European Parliament. This leads to a greater support of Brexit amongst the middle-classes, even to the point where an editorial in the Guardian insinuates that it is better for the UK not to remain in a club with these "nutcases".


Although populist/far-right parties did make gains in the European Parliament, it went surprisingly under-reported in the UK media, instead focusing more on the rise of Green parties across the continent.

QUOTE

France - The Anglosphere finally wakes up to what a screw-top Macron is, as various scandals, and his inept handling of them, make them realise he wasn't the great saviour of the European ideal that he was excepted to be. Realistic calls for his resignation emerge over the summer, which result in Macron going all "Sun King", and refusing to leave his palace for days on end.
This didn't happen, although the Giles Jeune movement is still happening after more than a year.

QUOTE

USA - despite scandal after scandal, Donald Trump still remains president, with his approval rating remaining at about the same level. The preparations for the 2020 primaries begin - there are calls for a major "Never Trump" Republican to challenge him for his party's primary. By the end of the year the only two still in the running are Trump & Ben Sasse, but no media pundit believes that he can unseat Trump.


He's still president, and his Opinion Polling has barely changed. There are two other "Never Trump" candidates in the Republican primary, but they haven't any chance on unseating Trump.

QUOTE
In the Democrat primaries, 5 major candidates still find themselves seriously in the running for the party nomination, 4 of whom are female. The field had double the candidates during the summer, but had taken themselves out of the running having been tripped up by Trump's ability to get into their heads - Beto O'Rourke & Andrew Cuomo being the two highest profile casualties.


There are indeed 4 women left fighting the Democrat Primaries - alongside 11 men. Andrew Cuomo never seriously ran, whilst Beto O'Rourke took himself out after the first few debates.
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Iz~
post Dec 29 2019, 11:36 AM
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Oh yes, American politics.

I predict the impeachment trial will eventually be held in March, taking away candidates Sanders and Warren (the only then remaining Senators) from their primary races at the time when they're needed the most. It doesn't have a huge effect on their campaigns (Warren's is completely flagging and Sanders has AOC take the lead in his absence) but dents it enough in a few key races for a brokered convention. The Senate trial is fabulously corrupt and Trump is retained in office with a simple majority. His joy at being exonerated, exaggerated by sycophants, sees him come out with renewed public opinion somehow.

Biden will falter his polling lead after a loss in Iowa to Buttigieg and in New Hampshire to Sanders. Out of the 15 currently remaining candidates, 5 will remain after New Hampshire, those three, Warren and Yang. Yang holds on until Super Tuesday before endorsing Sanders, Warren dropping out a few days after him. Biden finally concedes and endorses Buttigieg. As above, a contested convention will occur at the DNC, and the DNC, fearful of any meaningful change and wanting a 'young, fresh' candidate, will choose Pete Buttigieg as their nominee for president.

The election will be peppered with Trump making just enough homophobic scandals to get everyone progressive appalled and to give traditional whites the confidence to commit a homophobic crime. Despite this, the election has lower turnout than anticipated and people angry at the system still vote for Trump. He wins this election on the popular vote and sets himself up incredibly happy that he has defeated the do nothing Democrats and their "bum boy". The Republicans lose the Senate incredibly narrowly (and despondent Democrats point to this as their one glimmer of hope for the next 4 years), but take back the House.

A very deadly shooting of some description occurs in December. Thoughts and prayers are dutifully sent over as Republican lawmakers question how it happened once again.
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Brett-Butler
post Dec 31 2019, 04:44 PM
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Okay, given my dismal predictions last year, here are mine for 2020:

UK Politics - The UK official withdraws from the EU by the end of January. The transition happens surprisingly smoothly, a few stories about longer airport queues aside. As the focus on the UK-EU relations moves from Westminster to future negotiations with Brussels, stories about Brexit begin to slide down the news agenda, with 2020 being the first time in years that a week passes without Brexit being high-up on the news agenda.

Labour spend the first few months deciding on what direction to take in terms of a new leader. The early front-runner, Rebecca Long-Bailey, is taken out of contention when the Labour Party membership realise that she's a Catholic, which leads to a barrage of misogynistic attacks lobbied in her direction. After much inner soul-searching, Keir Starmer is elected leader of the party, with Dawn Butler elected as his deputy.

At the end of January, the EHRC report is released, which outlines its findings that Labour is an systemically anti-Semitic party. Motions are put into place to fix its problem, although the party doesn't suffer any major losses of MPs as a result.

Layla Moran becomes the new leader of the Lib Dems, but doesn't manage to find a new major cause for the party to be the champion of following the EU withdrawal, and as such their ratings fade during the year.

The Conservatives make decent gains in the council at the expense of Labour, and the Greens also make gains, whilst UKIP has a wipeout of all the council seats it contested. Sadiq Khan comfortably wins a 2nd term as Mayor of London. A 2nd Scottish referendum on independence does not happen.

Northern Ireland - Julian Smith dissolves the NI Assembly in the middle of January and a new election takes place in February. The DUP & Sinn Fein lose seats whilst remaining the biggest parties (as does the UUP), with seat gains made by SDLP, Alliance, Greens & PBP, with Aontú winning its first Assembly seat. The Assembly is finally up and running again by March, sans the Petition of Concern, with mandatory coalition to be scrapped by the end of the current Assembly.

USA - To the surprise of many commentators, Bernie Sanders is chosen as the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidency, after his last remaining rival, Andrew Yang, concedes. To the surprise of many, he names his former rival Tulsi Gabbard (who performed better than expected during the primary) as his running mate. Following a spate of high-profile anti-Semitic attacks in America in December 2019 & through to the new year, Donald Trump champions himself as the savior of the Jewish people, highlighting his Jewish daughter & advisers & his treatment of Israel, and attacks many of the people that Bernie surrounds himself with during the campaign for their alleged anti-Semitism. Trump wins a 2nd term with less of the Electoral College votes, although crucially with a majority of voters overall. The Republicans make a net loss of 2 Senate seats.

And I'll probably be wrong about all of it.
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 04:55 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 31 2019, 04:44 PM) *
- To the surprise of many commentators, Bernie Sanders is chosen as the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidency, after his last remaining rival,



OMG Michael would be happy with that as he's been championing Bernie for ages.
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Steve201
post Dec 31 2019, 05:04 PM
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Bernie would make a fantastic president!
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Bré
post Dec 31 2019, 05:05 PM
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The Senate is by far the hardest of the 3 2020 elections for the Democrats to win, it's surely inconceivable that they'd take that without both winning the presidency and keeping the House. I think congress will stay as a Republican senate / Democratic house split, and sadly the presidency still seems like a tossup for as long as the Democratic primary continues to look no closer to picking a sensible candidate (Joe Biden still being in the lead at this stage is concerning). I'd say Sanders beats Trump fairly easily if he wins, Buttigieg and Warren would both be slight favourites over Trump but Biden I think would be a slight underdog.

UK politics I foresee being pretty boring (apart from the Labour leadership election as a fun but mostly irrelevant sideshow) now that we actually have a strong and stable majority government. Maybe there'll be some Brexit shitshow 'fun' if we actually go towards a no deal at the end of the year.
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 05:09 PM
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UK Politics:

The UK triumphantly leaves the EU on January 31st 2020 and there are celebrations all over the country and street parties just like the Queen's Silver Jubilee and Charles and Diana's wedding. Champagne sales hit an all time high in the last week in January. Boris's popularity soars as he becomes the most popular PM ever. Even the Queen adores him.

Brexit turns out to be a great success with the economy booming and we have so many trade deals offered that we can pick and choose the best. The Remainers are stunned in to silence.

Keir Starmer becomes the new leader of Labour and gets the expected poll bounce but the Tories stay ahead. Ed Davey is the new Lib-Dem leader and he announces a vigorous campaign for re-entry in to the EU.

Boris continues to refuse Sturgeon's request for another independence referendum much to her anger.

US Politics:

Trump's impeachment trial ends with a not guilty verdict as expected.

Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee but Donald Trump wins a second term and this time with a majority of the popular vote.

Ivanka Trump announces that she'll play no part in her father's second term amid rumours that she plans to launch a bid for the Presidency in 2028.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Dec 31 2019, 05:19 PM
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(Bré @ Dec 31 2019, 05:05 PM) *
UK politics I foresee being pretty boring (apart from the Labour leadership election as a fun but mostly irrelevant sideshow) now that we actually have a strong and stable majority government. .



Strong and stable. Now those words are music to my ears.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Dec 31 2019, 05:22 PM
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Iz~
post Dec 31 2019, 05:25 PM
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My assumption - hadn't gone into detail before but here's a little bit of a justification for the Senate, it's based on there being a lot of Republican seats being defended and then you have Maine and Colorado that could easily flip to Dem assuming a more polarised result on already blue and red states and the presidential election coming down to a closer electoral college win but Republican winning on popular vote. That does mean Dems lose Alabama again but you only need a few purple states, maybe Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina to change the majority.

of course I'm talking rubbish a little as I've looked in even less detail so far at the likely House result, I'll definitely be following it closer to the time.
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Auld Lang Peen
post Dec 31 2019, 05:31 PM
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President Sanders.
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Bré
post Dec 31 2019, 05:33 PM
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I think it's extremely unlikely Trump wins the popular vote as well. He lost it pretty heavily last time and he's definitely not more popular than he was then (it's arguable if he can be said to be less popular, but at minimum he's about the same). If he wins the presidency again it'll be for the same reason as 2016, i.e. the Rust Belt states breaking for him by small margins. That's why I'm confident Sanders would easily beat Trump, even if he doesn't crush the popular vote as much as Hillary did he would at least be a safe bet to win those key states that Democrats lost in 2016 and I don't see which states would flip from Clinton to Trump because of a Sanders nomination.

Democrats getting at least 1 net gain in the Senate does seem like a safe bet (because Alabama, Colorado and probably Maine but if not then it's decently likely at least one of their other shots still comes through). If they're winning more than 1 or 2 of those other slightly more difficult flips then there's no way they're losing the House I'd think. Maybe they could win both the Senate and House but lose the presidency (but even that seems like a very very remote possibility to me, and it's only feasible at all if Biden is the candidate I'd say).

Watch me be totally wrong as Sanders wins the primary but then loses to Trump while Democrats easily take both houses of congress. x
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Dec 31 2019, 05:31 PM) *
President Sanders.



A fatal heart attack waiting to happen and he's sad he may choose a Republican as his running mate. rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Dec 31 2019, 05:41 PM
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Bré
post Dec 31 2019, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 31 2019, 05:38 PM) *
A fatal heart attack waiting to happen and he may choose a Republican as his running mate.


It's Biden who said that, not Sanders. x

(and I understand he said that he'd 'consider' it but that he didn't name any Republicans in particular, he's just posturing to win centrist votes in the primary, I highly doubt he'd actually do it because that'd just be stupid)
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 05:41 PM
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QUOTE(Bré @ Dec 31 2019, 05:38 PM) *
It's Biden who said that, not Sanders. x

(and I understand he said that he'd 'consider' it but that he didn't name any Republicans in particular, he's just posturing to win centrist votes in the primary, I highly doubt he'd actually do it because that'd just be stupid)



Oh sorry, yes my mistake.
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Auld Lang Peen
post Dec 31 2019, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 31 2019, 05:38 PM) *
A fatal heart attack waiting to happen and he's sad he may choose a Republican as his running mate. rolleyes.gif


Trump is too and he's massively overweight. Remember the mystery rush to the hospital? wink.gif
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 06:22 PM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Dec 31 2019, 06:05 PM) *
Trump is too and he's massively overweight. Remember the mystery rush to the hospital? wink.gif



That was for his annual routine health-check and to visit a patient too. biggrin.gif
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Auld Lang Peen
post Dec 31 2019, 06:23 PM
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It wasn't. Those are lies. It was VERY concernong. Probably a heart attack.
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Crazy Chris
post Dec 31 2019, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(ChRiMbO LeG PiPe @ Dec 31 2019, 06:23 PM) *
It wasn't. Those are lies. It was VERY concernong. Probably a heart attack.



No he wouldn't have walked both in and out with a heart attack. My cousin had one and he went in on a stretcher as any exertion like walking can worsen it.
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