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> Local byelections 2020 -, New parlaiment, new thread
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Suedehead2
post Jan 18 2020, 11:49 AM
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Now that we have a new parliament, it seems reasonable to start a new thread to discuss local byelections. The usual caveat applies - you cannot draw any real conclusions from individual results.

There was one byelection on Thursday in Bristol. Labour held what has generally been a close contest between them and the Tories with an increased majority. Last time the seat was fought (May 2016), Labour and Tories won one seat each in the ward. The Tory has since effected to the Lib Dems (in opposition to Johnson) which probably contributed to the party more than doubling their vote.
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Suedehead2
post Jan 24 2020, 08:25 AM
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There were five by-elections yesterday, four of them in Brent. Labour won all four Brent seats in 2018 with comfortable majorities but things weren't quite so smooth yesterday. They held one seat fairly comfortably although there was a big swing to the Tories. In another ward where two seats were being contested there was also a big swing to the Tories with Labour just about holding both seats.

The fourth seat was more eventful. The seat had previously been won by a Lib Dem in 2002 but he defected to Labour in 2012 and successfully defended the seat as a Labour candidate in both 2014 and 2018. He was then convicted of stealing money while acting as an executor for an estate. As if that wasn't bad enough for Labour, their new candidate was suspended when some Islamophobic tweets were discovered. Once again a party had failed to carry out some basic checks. With no "official" Labour candidate (although he was still on the ballot paper as it was too late to withdraw) the seat was up for grabs and the Lib Dems duly won. The new councillor immediately becomes the leader of a Lib Dem group of one and joins three Tories in trying to oppose the slightly diminished Labour group of 59.

The other seat was a Tory defence in Galloway but I haven't seen a result for that.
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Quarantilas
post Jan 24 2020, 12:15 PM
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The Galloway one was a Tory win. 22% up on the last election with over 60% BUT there was an independent in the last election that came second with 28% of the vote (approx) who didnít stand this time. Labour last behind the Greens
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Harve
post Jan 24 2020, 12:30 PM
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Two of the Brent defences, Wembley Central and Alperton, are in the top 5 wards in Britain for numbers of Hindus, with the third Brent ward being a fairly high percentage too.

In December, the three most Hindu constituencies - Brent North as well as Leicester East (safe Labour) and Harrow East (marginal Tory) - all recorded some pretty horrific swings towards the Tories. This was totally out of kilter with the normal of pattern of Remain-voting, ethnically diverse, fairly well-educated places like these, where Labour generally managed to hold steady in an election that was otherwise terrible for them (they did lose some of their vote to the Lib Dems and Greens, but so did the Tories).

So we have evidence that BJP-affiliated groups' support for the Tories last year over India-related issues did pay off to some extent. I'm sure when the British Election Study report comes out, we'll still find that British Hindus are majority Labour, but the swing against them might have been disproportionate.

The Scottish by elections mostly count the following day, in my experience. Galloway used to be fertile territory for the SNP 25 years ago, but the SNP's voterbase has changed since they absorbed Labour and this now has very Scottish Tory-favourable demographics, so no wonder the Tories held steady.
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Suedehead2
post Jan 24 2020, 01:30 PM
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Scottish local by-elections are under AV (assuming there is only one vacancy) which takes a bit longer to count. That would be a reason for leaving the count until the following day.
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Brett-Butler
post Feb 28 2020, 07:51 AM
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There were 7 local by-elections last night. 2 interesting changes - the Conservatives lost a seat in Cambridge to the Liberal Democrats, whilst Labour lost a seat in Manchester to an independent candidate. Cambridge electing a Lib Dem isn't a surprise, although Labour losing one in Manchester is slightly more so, and even more interesting it wasn't to a different party. Plaid Cymru also gained a seat in Wrexham from an independent.
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Suedehead2
post Feb 28 2020, 08:53 AM
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Last night's results were generally terrible for Labour.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 20 2020, 08:16 AM
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Last night in Upper Stoke, we had what's likely to be the last by-election for several months. It was a Labour hold, with turnout a minuscule 9%.
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Steve201
post Mar 20 2020, 08:40 AM
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Jesus, barely worth it!
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Suedehead2
post Mar 20 2020, 08:23 PM
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There will be a lot to come when things get back to something vaguely resembling normality.

There will have been a lot of contests being held over until the May elections. Some of these will have been vacant for some time already as byelections are not held if the term of the former councillor (i.e. the one who resigned or died) had less than six months to run.

There will also be councillors who were expecting to step down in May and who are not able or willing to continue beyond then.
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