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> Eurovision Song Contest 2020 · Odds
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 2 2020, 10:20 AM
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I know it's early and all but seeing how Iceland is attracting a lot of hype right now I was tempted enough to start this thread now.

Anyone put any bets yet? Anyone agree or disagree with the way the odds are looking right now? For the record the top 10 looks like this right now:

01. Lithuania (11%)
02. Romania (10%)
03. Iceland (10%)
04. Italy (5%)
05. Russia (5%)
06. Bulgaria (5%)
07. Sweden (5%)
08. Malta (4%)
09. Germany (4%)
10. Norway (4%)

I'm personally surprised Germany and Norway aren't higher and don't know where Malta's hype is coming from lol. Given how Dađi is currently in the top 40 on iTunes in the UK and top 100 in some other countries I'm fully expecting it to go #1 later today. He was at 8% only a few hours ago. This is already higher than Hatari ever got last year (4th) and AFAIK the highest Iceland has ever been? Maybe Jónsi & Gréta were 3rd for a time? Not sure.


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 2 2020, 10:21 AM
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post Mar 2 2020, 10:29 AM
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early hype does not always translate into the results oops

*cough* France 2011
*quieter cough* Italy 2017

I'm surprised Greece is taking so long to get up there~
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 2 2020, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(*CENSORED* @ Mar 2 2020, 10:29 AM) *
early hype does not always translate into the results oops

*cough* France 2011
*quieter cough* Italy 2017

I'm surprised Greece is taking so long to get up there~

But it also sometimes do.

*cough* Arcade reached No. 1 March 9th and never left
*louder cough* Toy reached No. 1 March 11th and was there until like 4 days before the final.

I'm not saying Iceland is definitely going to win but this is still pretty amazing to see as an Icelander because I really do think our chances of finally doing so haven't been this good for some 11 years.


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 2 2020, 10:35 AM
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gooddelta
post Mar 2 2020, 10:38 AM
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It's difficult to call how Iceland will do, because the 'quirky funky entry' votes might be split between that and Lithuania. I don't really see them both in the top three, as the odds suggest.

Iceland is already going viral and it's only a matter of time before Lithuania does, and clearly they'll both do very well on the televote but the juries could Keiino either one or both of them.
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post Mar 2 2020, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 2 2020, 01:32 PM) *
But it also sometimes do.

*cough* Arcade reached No. 1 March 9th and never left
*louder cough* Toy reached No. 1 March 11th and was there until like 4 days before the final.

I'm not saying Iceland is definitely going to win but this is still pretty amazing to see as an Icelander because I really do think our chances of finally doing so haven't been this good for some 11 years.

I just don't want you to get your hopes up too much bbz <3
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LexC
post Mar 2 2020, 10:50 AM
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This week is the crucial week really with so many of the internal selections dropping and the last of the National Finals wrapping up - both Toy and Arcade were released in this equivalent week in their years so be prepared for your likes of Russia/Azerbaijan/San Marino dropping at any moment.
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J▲hq
post Mar 2 2020, 11:24 AM
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The Malta hype is coming from them selecting a massively popular Junior Eurovision winner tongue.gif

I’m surprised Germany isn’t higher too, I put an each-way bet on it as soon as it was revealed with the expectation that it would quickly climb to top 5 in the odds
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 2 2020, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 2 2020, 11:24 AM) *
The Malta hype is coming from them selecting a massively popular Junior Eurovision winner tongue.gif

Ahh okay. I've never watched JESC actually so I didn't know that!
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Liаm
post Mar 2 2020, 11:33 AM
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Romania SURELY won't be anywhere near that high, can't fathom where that hype is coming from :')
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 2 2020, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 2 2020, 10:20 AM) *
I'm fully expecting it to go #1 later today.

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Monzo
post Mar 2 2020, 06:04 PM
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I guess Germany is so low because there's no live performance yet. The song sounds good, but how good is it live?
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 3 2020, 10:25 AM
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After Russia revealed that their artist will be viral stars Little Big they rose to #2 rather quickly from #7 but today they have fallen back to #3 behind The Roop. We'll see if they'll surge to No. 1 when the song is released but I'm personally sceptical Little Big can do well on the jury vote due to being both a joke act and from Russia who generally isn't well received with the jury just for being Russia lol. It'll no doubt smash the televote though.
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post Mar 3 2020, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE(Monzo @ Mar 2 2020, 06:04 PM) *
I guess Germany is so low because there's no live performance yet. The song sounds good, but how good is it live?


Could it also be because they have performed badly in the last few years?
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J▲hq
post Mar 3 2020, 10:41 AM
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I doubt that has much to do with it tbh, yeah their record in general in the past few years has been pretty poor but they came 4th only two years ago. Lithuania and Iceland aren't known for massive success and Romania have just had two non-qualifiers in a row.
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 3 2020, 10:44 AM
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Yeah I think Germany's slow start is probably to do with there not being a live version. Possibly it's also to do with the fact that these type of songs tend to place high but never really tend to win (see: Sweden 2018, Switzerland 2019) so maybe people are reluctant to put money on it until they feel more confident in it being a possible contender.
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post Mar 3 2020, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 3 2020, 10:41 AM) *
Romania have just had two non-qualifiers in a row.


They say things come in threes x
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Liаm
post Mar 3 2020, 12:14 PM
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Omg we can dream
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 3 2020, 06:13 PM
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Georgia's jumped from 34th to 13th today. Last year their highest point was 30th, 27th in 2018 and while they spent two days in 10th on Jan 1-2 2017 after March they never got higher than 23rd so this is potentially great news for them!
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 9 2020, 11:55 AM
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Iceland is still at number one but Bulgaria has pushed Lithuania down to 3. Switzerland is at 4 and Russia 5.

[Pos. Today / Pos a week ago / Country / Odds]
01. (3) Iceland (12%)
02. (6) Bulgaria (11%)
03. (1) Lithuania (10%)
04. (12) Switzerland (8%)
05. (5) Russia (7%)
06. (2) Romania (6%)
07. (4) Italy (5%)
08. (7) Sweden (4%)
09. (8) Malta (4%)
10. (9) Germany (3%)


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 9 2020, 11:56 AM
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Cameron
post Mar 9 2020, 04:36 PM
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Bulgaria now #1!
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