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> Eurovision Song Contest 2020 ∑ Hypotheticals
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BiminiBonBoulex
post Mar 27 2020, 02:58 PM
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So in lieu of being able to "predict" what is going to happen in the now cancelled (still stings sad.gif) Eurovision 2020, I thought it would still be a fun thought experiment to imagine what would have been in the alternative universe where there wasn't a global pandemic that cancelled every major public event in the Spring and Summer of 2020.

So who would have qualified from the semi of death? Would the pre-contest favourites have all made good on their expectations? Is "Think About Things" really the winner that never was? Spill your theories onto this thread safe in the knowledge that there will never be a way to prove you wrong!
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BiminiBonBoulex
post Mar 27 2020, 03:16 PM
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As far as my two cents are concerned, I think the 2020 songs are interesting in so far as you have two "lanes" of songs aiming to run up the score in either the jury (see Norway, Switzerland, Belgium ect) or the televote (Iceland, Russia, Lithuania being the big three) which makes me think that the key to doing well in this crowd would have been to do at least fairly well on both sides of the vote.

So I actually think Bulgaria are right to be annoyed at not being able to use their song next year because I think "Tears Getting Sober" probably had enough appeal to both juries who would have lapped it up and televoters when you factor in its contemporary Eilish-esque sound and Bulgaria's neighbour/diaspora vote that it can call upon. It might not have won either but it could have conceivably done a Jamala/Duncan and won by doing well on both. By the same token I think it would have been wrong to discount Sweden or Germany as potentially being able to do well on both legs.

But equally I'm not so rash as some to say that Iceland would have been ignored by the juries so if Iceland completely ran away with the televote, I can imagine a situation where it sneaks a win despite coming 6th or 7th with the juries because its immediate competitors all failed to score strongly with the public.
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Cameron
post Mar 27 2020, 03:23 PM
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My top 10 predictions given realistic staging and televote / juries would have been:

1. Switzerland
2. Lithuania
3. Bulgaria
4. Russia
5. Iceland
6. Italy
7. Norway
8. Sweden
9. Azerbaijan
10. Germany
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Iz 💀
post Mar 27 2020, 03:28 PM
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I agree about Bulgaria, I knew it was on for a top 5 for certain and well, Arcade was the most professional sounding track last year, and this year it was Tears Getting Sober, so by that token, yes.

In an alternate world where coronavirus hit Italy but did not affect anywhere else enough to get the contest cancelled, I think 'Fai Rumore' could have snuck in a narrative win. That was the feeling I got in that brief window where Italy was locked down and they were singing it out of their balconies but there were still rumors about postponement and such. In fact, had the contest been postponed to say September in this current situation, I'd still be holding to that, we know the public like Italian ballads at the best of times, even more so when they have a directly moving sound. My guess is that if there is a wide-ranging poll taken around May that approximates the results - I'm sure someone will do it, Italy will win if bolstered a bit by solidarity.

I honestly don't think that if I think about it that Iceland or Lithuania would have gone all the way. A new best for the latter and a great result for the former but... not the obvious viral victory that people were expecting from either. Maybe I want to think that because we had a really good chance to get a debut winner and that is sad but I don't think either were quite strong enough to take a win.
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gooddelta
post Mar 27 2020, 03:31 PM
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I think it would have been Bulgaria topping neither vote but winning overall, Iceland second after running away with the televote and doing fairly solidly on the jury vote and Italy doing very well on both metrics and finishing third.

Russia probably a solid second on the televote but outside the top 10 with the juries would have seen them around fourth and then I guess Switzerland or Lithuania rounding off the top five, the former doing particularly well on the jury vote and the latter coming third or fourth on the televote and mid to low top ten on the jury vote.
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Cameron
post Mar 27 2020, 03:34 PM
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Armenia could have surprised if the live staging was anything like the music video
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ITz Cody
post Mar 27 2020, 03:40 PM
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I would have probably said Germany but wouldnít rule out Bulgaria doing the same thing Arcade did. They deserved better. Part of me also had a feeling that Little Big would have also done decently with juries and smashed it with the GP. Why canít we just have two Eurovisions next year? sad.gif
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J❄️hq
post Mar 27 2020, 04:17 PM
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No mention of Malta so far? I think Destiny could just as much get a consensus win as Victoria.

I can't decide whether Italy would've got a huge sympathy vote, or a boycott/nil points in the public vote for being such a big factor in all this chaos.

I think Russia would've been the most hurt by the jury, on account of it being Russia plus not a really 'jury friendly' entry. Maybe something like this:

1. Bulgaria
2. Lithuania
3. Iceland
4. Germany
5. Malta
6. Switzerland
7. Italy
8. Russia
9. Sweden
10. Norway

QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 27 2020, 02:58 PM) *
Is "Think About Things" really the winner that never was?


Not in the slightest lmao. Bulgaria were top of the odds, Russia were crushing it in Youtube views, Lithuania were top in the My Eurovision Scoreboard app (Iceland showing as only 6th in the community!). I think it was a very popular song with some very vocal supporters, but not a winner (perhaps not even with the televote).

QUOTE(Purple Kecleon @ Mar 27 2020, 03:40 PM) *
Why canít we just have two Eurovisions next year? sad.gif


Not to keep using the same joke and sounding like a broken record but

We will! One in May, the other in November tongue.gif
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 27 2020, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 27 2020, 04:17 PM) *
Russia were crushing it in Youtube views

To be fair the youtube views for Little Big were probably mostly from Russia lol as evidenced by the fact that the comments section is almost exclusively in Russian and the live version from a Russian talk show tells a similar story.

Daūi has crushed it on Youtube too having amassed almost 8m views over 3 videos (the official video, the one on the Eurovision YT and the one on RŕV's YT) which is 22 times more views than there are people in Iceland so it's safe to say those views did not come from here laugh.gif

I don't think Daūi was a definite winner but I definitely think it was a possibility seeing how it's much more jury friendly than the other two expected televote giants although Russia does have that diaspore/vote buying schtick down to a tee. Malta, Bulgaria and Germany are all good shouts and I definitely think this year would have been pretty open and that the winner would not have topped both the tele- and jury vote.


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 27 2020, 04:54 PM
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BiminiBonBoulex
post Mar 27 2020, 05:45 PM
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Denmark would have been my tip for a sleeper hit - that kind of anthemic but still middle of the road stuff could have done really well with juries and televoters alike.
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diva thin muffin
post Mar 27 2020, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 27 2020, 05:45 PM) *
Denmark would have been my tip for a sleeper hit - that kind of anthemic but still middle of the road stuff could have done really well with juries and televoters alike.

I agree. It's got a very radio friendly Lumineers/Mumford type of way to it that I think a lot of people would enjoy. Could easily have been a contender for the top 10.

I personally think Norway would have flopped with the televoters, especially in the final, but eaten up by the juries.
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BiminiBonBoulex
post May 14 2020, 09:34 PM
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Iceland won the "Sweden's 12pts" show that SVT put on tonight in addition to the fan-organised simulations (Eurojury and Eurostream) and to me this is adding up to a fairly safe assumption that Iceland would have taken the crown if this was a COVID-free timeline.

Given that a major theory of the case for Iceland not winning is its lack of strength on the jury vote, in all three of the biggest public/fan runs of the jury vote, it won all of them (admittedly only by 1 point in one case) so this could have been a Salvador style margin of victory.
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gooddelta
post May 14 2020, 09:41 PM
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Yes I think Iceland would have run away with it too. There are a lot of very good entries this year, but this is 'the one' this year that has it all and would have had the momentum and I hope it will still be a hit in some countries with the exposure it's had from going viral.

Interesting that the UK got 6 points in Sweden's jury vote and even 2 points in the public vote, looks as if we might have actually done ok this year! Bodes well if James comes back next year, especially if he returns with a GREAT song, as this one is good but I think he can do better still, based on songs he's written for others.
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diva thin muffin
post May 15 2020, 10:14 AM
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Seeing us winning all of these polls and national selections is really upsetting tbh laugh.gif we finally seem destined to win and the whole thing gets cancelled lmfao. I kind of wish we weren't winning all these fan contests because it's making this bitter pill even harder to swallow.
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diva thin muffin
post May 15 2020, 10:15 AM
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Also for anyone interested Italy got the 12 points from Iceland but the UK also got a few points IIRC. 3 points or so.
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J❄️hq
post May 15 2020, 10:25 AM
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I don't think there's anything to be taken from Iceland winning the SVT show though. After all, they are just one country (that happens to be in a bloc with Iceland!) that would've voted in the real thing. I mean, they were so blinded by John Lundvik and Thomas G:son being songwriters that they saw fit to put France in the top 10! laugh.gif
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diva thin muffin
post May 15 2020, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(J🐠hq @ May 15 2020, 10:25 AM) *
I don't think there's anything to be taken from Iceland winning the SVT show though. After all, they are just one country (that happens to be in a bloc with Iceland!) that would've voted in the real thing. I mean, they were so blinded by John Lundvik and Thomas G:son being songwriters that they saw fit to put France in the top 10! laugh.gif

Lol nobody is basing this off of Sweden's show alone. Iceland also won Eurojury and Eurostream, both of which had full fledged juries. On top of that we won the Austrian TV show too, top 10 in Germany (winner TBA), 2nd in Spain (only behind Spain's own entry lmao), has charted in the spotify top 200 (and top 100 in some cases) for Lithuania, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Ireland (currently #17 there). Additionally that bloc with Sweden mostly just goes one way from Iceland to Sweden lol.

So there's full reason for people to believe Iceland could very well have won this thing.
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gooddelta
post May 15 2020, 03:04 PM
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Iím holding on to a grain of hope that word of the UK appearing in these country-run votes will get back to the BBC and theyíll serve up the same approach (but with an even better song) next year.

Iím quite shocked James Newman hasnít already been confirmed for 2021 actually, surely itís only fair when thereís no long-established national final format to worry about.
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J❄️hq
post May 15 2020, 03:24 PM
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It did seem to be the cherry on the cake in Lex's calculations though..! I'm by no means saying ICELAND DEFINITELY WOULD NOT HAVE WON THIS THING because there is a case for them, but there's cases to be made for a few other countries too so I don't think it was a done deal at all. They could just as easily have done a Italy 2017.

QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 15 2020, 04:04 PM) *
Iím quite shocked James Newman hasnít already been confirmed for 2021 actually, surely itís only fair when thereís no long-established national final format to worry about.


Think I mentioned in another thread but I'm hoping it's perhaps being saved for "Eurovision: Come Together" tomorrow unsure.gif
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Monzo
post May 15 2020, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ May 15 2020, 04:03 PM) *
On top of that we won the Austrian TV show too, top 10 in Germany (winner TBA)
Iceland will be live on stage in tomorrow's final show in Germany. Lithuania and Denmark will be there, too.
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