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Cardigan Opening Week Predictions
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 23 2020, 01:11 PM
Post #1
I had a marvellous time ruining everything.
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with Cardigan being the lead single on the album out tomorrow with a vid incoming, what's your guys predictions?

Me and LWYMMD's both opened in the high 60k's but obvs they had weeks of hype behind them and weren't competing with 16 other tracks x

Polls:
Poll 1 - UK Debut Position
Poll 2 - UK Spotify Debut Position
Poll 3 - UK Sales
Poll 4 - US Debut Position (I've put first full week, cos her songs usually debut early due to radio -> LWYMMD debuted at like 68 cos of that then went straight to 1 the next week)
Poll 5 - US Sales scrapped cos cba
Poll 5 - Will Cardigan debut early in US? (like LWYMMD did at 68 and Me at 100)
Poll 6 - Will Taylor get 3 tracks in the UK top 40 opening week
Poll 7 - How much of Folklore will chart in the US hot 100
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 23 2020, 03:22 PM
Post #2
I had a marvellous time ruining everything.
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Group: Entertainment Mod
Posts: 31,019
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Joined: 26-May 14
 


Obviously got no clue so its making predicting more fun!!

UK: #3
UK Spotify: #2
UK Sales: 47k
Top 40 tracks: Yes, she'll get three (probs similar debuts to CS)

I'm going under the presumption this gets pushed properly on Spotify with HHUK/TTH high placements & is pushed as a single

US: #1 (I feel confident this time, me and YNTCD has enough points to be #1 nearly every single week this week, acc I think Me would've been #1 with its debut every single week of 2020 ffs)
US debut early: No (if me only got in at 100, hopefully that's the end of ugly early debuts)
US songs in chart: 17 -> remember all of Lover cracked the top 100!
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 24 2020, 05:27 PM
Post #3
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yep I def overpredicted this kink.gif then again its HHUK placement is horrendous and it ain't even 1 on TTH so xx
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 25 2020, 12:56 PM
Post #4
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okay so two polls down:
UK Spotify Debut Position
#1 [ 1 ] ** [14.29%]
#2 [ 2 ] ** [28.57%]
#3 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Top 5 [ 1 ] ** [14.29%]
Top 10 [ 1 ] ** [14.29%]
Top 20 [ 2 ] ** [28.57%]

two of us were right, inc me cheer.gif
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 29 2020, 11:39 AM
Post #5
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Joined: 26-May 14
 


will cardigan debut early:

Yes - 4
No - 7

and the answer was, no cheer.gif tf for that and I called this one right *.* #1 debut hopefully coming *.*
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UltraFolklore
post Jul 31 2020, 10:58 PM
Post #6
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Group: Entertainment Mod
Posts: 31,019
Member No.: 20,947
Joined: 26-May 14
 


UK Debut Position
#1 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
#2 [ 1 ] ** [8.33%]
#3 [ 1 ] ** [8.33%]
Top 5 [ 2 ] ** [16.67%]
Top 10 [ 3 ] ** [25.00%]
Top 20 [ 5 ] ** [41.67%]

25% we're correct so congrats to the 3 of you! I overestimated this with #3 but damn SO close to the top 5.

UK Opening Week Sales
+100k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
81k-99k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
71k-80k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
61k-70k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
51k-60k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
41k-50k [ 2 ] ** [16.67%]
31k-40k [ 4 ] ** [33.33%]
21k-30k [ 4 ] ** [33.33%]
under 20k [ 2 ] ** [16.67%]

v. successful here with 33% of y'all giving the correct answer as it sells 35k, again on the higher end of the predictions! <3 personally I went too high but then I wasn't expecting another song to pass 30k + another one nearly to

Will Taylor get 3 tracks in the UK top 40 opening week
Yes [ 8 ] ** [66.67%]
No [ 4 ] ** [33.33%]

and the most successful poll yet as 66% are right. HOWEVER, this was much closer between yes and no before the Saturday Spotify numbers kink.gif kink.gif however let alone top 40, she managed 3 top 10 cheer.gif

(me just realising I'm talking to myself in this thread atm kink.gif)
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