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 2021 Scottish/Welsh Elections |
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 Sep 29 2020, 05:40 PM
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#1
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is in hibernation
 
Group: Banned
Posts: 11,385 Member No.: 21,161 Joined: 24-August 14
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Seven months to go so why not x
This will be my first vote (I delivered leaflets for the SNP last year and have been a member since 2017 though), it’s just putting a cross in a box but I can’t wait  On my constituency vote I’m definitely going SNP, if Labour were more supportive of independence and had a half decent leader I may consider them but there’s really no choice but SNP. I can’t say I’m that ecstatic about the SNP atm though, I’ve never been more supportive of Scottish Independence but my enthusiasm for the party is a bit more limited. On the list I’m gonna go Green, their economic policies on tax etc are more radical and similar to my beliefs and I feel we’ve all left the environment crisis behind during COVID. If I was in Wales I’d go Plaid obvs  In terms of predictions I think we’ll get a pro independence majority which is what matters, hopefully in vote share as well this time. Everyone’s expecting the SNP to get a majority on their own but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t, y’all forget how hard it is to do that under the Scottish system. The Tories only got 22% in the last Scottish Parliament so I can see them staying similar, maybe making gains in Banffshire if their Brexit base holds up. Labour will lose regional list seats to the Greens |
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Sep 29 2020, 06:26 PM
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#2
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Queen of Soon
Group: Moderator
Posts: 73,810 Member No.: 3,474 Joined: 24-May 07
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Im going both votes SNP, it’s the only way we can break the system and get that majority and secure indyref2. Firm believer that every list vote that goes green instead hurts our chances to hit that majority. Especially in areas where we wont Walk every constituency seat like the south west, north east and mid Scotland & fife and the higher the list vote the more we gain from that to counter loses on the ground to the red blue and orange Tories
Ive sent my forms back to be a registered overseas voter. So 15 years of Scottish voting rights now secure |
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Sep 29 2020, 06:34 PM
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#3
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is in hibernation
Group: Banned
Posts: 11,385 Member No.: 21,161 Joined: 24-August 14
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QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Sep 29 2020, 07:26 PM)  Im going both votes SNP, it’s the only way we can break the system and get that majority and secure indyref2. Firm believer that every list vote that goes green instead hurts our chances to hit that majority. Especially in areas where we wont Walk every constituency seat like the south west, north east and mid Scotland & fife and the higher the list vote the more we gain from that to counter loses on the ground to the red blue and orange Tories Ive sent my forms back to be a registered overseas voter. So 15 years of Scottish voting rights now secure There is always the chance the SNP could win a majority on the constituency alone, but that's never certain. Labour will deffo lose East Lothian (Iain 'run away' Gray is retiring) and probably Dunfermline but they'll keep Edinburgh Southern because of tactical voting. The Tories will lose Edinburgh Central as the Baroness isn't standing, I think they'll keep their seats in Aberdeenshire (making a gain in Banffshire) and the Borders but will lose Eastwood and Ayr, leaving them with 5 on the Constituency. The Lib Dems will keep their four as well due to unionist tactical voting (the money I'd pay to see Alex Cole-Hamilton out of parliament). So that leaves 63 constituencies to the SNP, they got 59 last time. All my own opinions x |
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Sep 29 2020, 06:51 PM
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#4
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Queen of Soon
Group: Moderator
Posts: 73,810 Member No.: 3,474 Joined: 24-May 07
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There’s a lot of moving parts and tactical potentials that I can’t take a risk with my second vote. I’m voting in a seat that will probably go LibDem (NE Fife) and so my list vote counts in ensuring we pick up that seat on the regional list.
This time round I’m being risk adverse, there’s just too much on the line. Indyref2 is quite literally all I care about at this election. Helps that I personally don’t particularly rate the greens or some of their policies |
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Sep 29 2020, 06:57 PM
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#5
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is in hibernation
Group: Banned
Posts: 11,385 Member No.: 21,161 Joined: 24-August 14
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QUOTE(Quarantilas @ Sep 29 2020, 07:51 PM) There’s a lot of moving parts and tactical potentials that I can’t take a risk with my second vote. I’m voting in a seat that will probably go LibDem (NE Fife) and so my list vote counts in ensuring we pick up that seat on the regional list. This time round I’m being risk adverse, there’s just too much on the line. Indyref2 is quite literally all I care about at this election. Helps that I personally don’t particularly rate the greens or some of their policies Fair enough. It helps that I live in a fairly safe SNP constituency, I mean the Labour vote was still okay here at the last Holyrood election (27%) but completely collapsed at the Westminster Election last year. The Greens missed out on a North East seat last time and the SNP won’t win all the constituencies here so they’ll get a list seat anyway probs |
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Sep 29 2020, 07:49 PM
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#6
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Shakin Stevens
Group: Members
Posts: 44,844 Member No.: 5,138 Joined: 29-December 07
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Don’t live in either but would vote SNP in Scotland and Labour in Wales
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Oct 12 2020, 08:37 PM
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#7
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Group: Moderator
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10 October - polling from ComRes.
Not much to report, a slight fall for the SNP. Scottish parliament voting intention: Constituency SNO: 50% (-1) CON: 23% (-1) LAB: 18% (+1) LDEM: 6% (-) PR SNP: 41% (-2) CON: 21% (-) LAB: 18% (+2) GRN: 11% (+1) LDEM: 7% (-1) via @SavantaComRes Chgs. w/ Aug |
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Oct 13 2020, 04:21 PM
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#8
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Cœur poids plume
Group: Members
Posts: 18,099 Member No.: 4,718 Joined: 3-November 07
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My hot take is that despite very good polls right now, the SNP will get the same number of seats as in 2016 and, once again, the Greens will be needed to obtain the independence parliamentary majority.
Do not ask me to show my working here x |
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Oct 13 2020, 04:29 PM
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#9
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is in hibernation
Group: Banned
Posts: 11,385 Member No.: 21,161 Joined: 24-August 14
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QUOTE(Harve @ Oct 13 2020, 05:21 PM) My hot take is that despite very good polls right now, the SNP will get the same number of seats as in 2016 and, once again, the Greens will be needed to obtain the independence parliamentary majority. Do not ask me to show my working here x I can see that as well. Some polls for Holyrood in 2015 had the SNP at 60% (post general election boost) and in the end they ‘only’ got 47%/42%. I can’t see the Salmond stuff helping the SNP either although to who’s benefit idk Looking forward to conference, my first one even if it’s only virtual lol. This post has been edited by Hallo'Riheen: Oct 13 2020, 04:30 PM |
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Jan 15 2021, 09:27 PM
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#10
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Group: Moderator
Posts: 16,077 Member No.: 7,561 Joined: 27-October 08
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QUOTE(Harve @ Oct 13 2020, 04:21 PM) My hot take is that despite very good polls right now, the SNP will get the same number of seats as in 2016 and, once again, the Greens will be needed to obtain the independence parliamentary majority. Looks like your take may be a bit hot there Harve. |
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Jan 16 2021, 12:43 AM
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#11
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Buffy/Charmed
Group: Members
Posts: 42,583 Member No.: 18,639 Joined: 18-April 13
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Uff, no denying an independence vote with that mandate! Everything we said r.e brexshit is coming true
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Jan 16 2021, 06:10 PM
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#12
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Shakin Stevens
Group: Members
Posts: 44,844 Member No.: 5,138 Joined: 29-December 07
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Problem is the veto the Westminster governments have over their satellite colonies!
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Jan 17 2021, 07:24 PM
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#13
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Buffy/Charmed
Group: Members
Posts: 42,583 Member No.: 18,639 Joined: 18-April 13
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Scotland has its own legal system and the Act was voluntarily entered i to on BOTH sides
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Jan 18 2021, 03:33 PM
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#14
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Shakin Stevens
Group: Members
Posts: 44,844 Member No.: 5,138 Joined: 29-December 07
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Like most things there’s a lot of small print they add to agreements at 2am in the morning when people want to just sign a agreement.
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Jan 18 2021, 09:19 PM
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#15
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Queen of Soon
Group: Moderator
Posts: 73,810 Member No.: 3,474 Joined: 24-May 07
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Id be interested for a legal case to test if Holyrood is able to amend or repeal acts of the Scottish Parliament from pre-1707 dissolution as technically speaking this is a continuation of the same parliament and that is how it was reconvened in the late 90‘s in the First Session. So in theory the parliament has full jurisdiction over its previous acts and therefore could repeal the Acts of Union and hold a referendum on that basis with the question of „Should the Scottish Parliament vote to repeal the 1707 Act of Union and become an independent Country?“
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Mar 1 2021, 09:01 PM
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#16
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Group: Moderator
Posts: 16,077 Member No.: 7,561 Joined: 27-October 08
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Polling still good for the SNP - recent controversies aside - they could be in for quite a result in an electoral system that is meant to make majorities very unlikely.
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Mar 1 2021, 09:27 PM
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#17
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Shakin Stevens
Group: Members
Posts: 44,844 Member No.: 5,138 Joined: 29-December 07
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It would be quite the statement to Westminster. Hard to know if recent controversy’s have been taken into account here though!
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