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> Who will win the 2020 U.S Presidential election?
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Who will win the 2020 U.S Presidential election?
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Houdini
post Oct 27 2020, 05:21 PM
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Only one week to go now until all of the votes from millions of Americans are counted and the president for the next 4 years will be confirmed but who do you think will win the election? whatever the result it promises to be a dramatic night next Tuesday and the aftermath will be felt for years if not decades to come. Also who would you like to see in the White House in the coming years?
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JustSnakeyHoney
post Oct 27 2020, 05:37 PM
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Biden and Biden for the two polls for me. For the second option, I really wish Trump would have been a better president than he was (and proved most of his haters wrong) once he was elected or at least become significantly better over time. He has improved a little over time maybe but not enough. If he would have taken Covid more seriously then we would be looking at probably less US Covid deaths and a closer election race than we see at the moment.

This is going to be such a one-sided poll.


This post has been edited by Salty Melody: Oct 27 2020, 05:39 PM
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 05:45 PM
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Not a swing state but still...

From CNN:

In California Biden leads President Trump 65%-29%, one poll finds. That 36-point margin would top the 30-point advantage that Hillary Clinton amassed against Trump in 2016, the previous record for a Democrat. The only larger victory in state history came exactly a century ago, in 1920, when Warren G. Harding, the Republican, beat James Cox, the Democratic candidate, by 42 points.
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Calum
post Oct 27 2020, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris @ Oct 27 2020, 05:45 PM) *
Not a swing state but still...

From CNN:

In California Biden leads President Trump 65%-29%, one poll finds. That 36-point margin would top the 30-point advantage that Hillary Clinton amassed against Trump in 2016, the previous record for a Democrat. The only larger victory in state history came exactly a century ago, in 1920, when Warren G. Harding, the Republican, beat James Cox, the Democratic candidate, by 42 points.

Why has this got anything to do with who you want to win the election?

In response to the poll, I'll be optimistic and say I think Biden will win (also want him to win).
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(Calum @ Oct 27 2020, 05:47 PM) *
Why has this got anything to do with who you want to win the election?



I posted it in the wrong thread and came to delete it but you've quoted it now.
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 05:49 PM
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Biden will win but I want Trump to win.
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Chez Wombat
post Oct 27 2020, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(Salty Melody @ Oct 27 2020, 05:37 PM) *
Biden and Biden for the two polls for me. For the second option, I really wish Trump would have been a better president than he was (and proved most of his haters wrong) once he was elected or at least become significantly better over time. He has improved a little over time maybe but not enough. If he would have taken Covid more seriously then we would be looking at probably less US Covid deaths and a closer election race than we see at the moment.


A leopard doesn't change his spots, Snake. He got in primarily as a protest against the norm, and had no political experience as well as clearly bigoted views. That was never going to make a moral or competent president. If there's one good thing about this year, it's that it has been the key thing that has showed him up.

I hope Biden and I'd LIKE to think he can, but I just can't be confident until it happens so I'm not going to predict. Had too many nasty shocks over the last few years.
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J00psichord
post Oct 27 2020, 06:01 PM
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I've got everything crossed for a Biden win, quickly followed by a Trump arrest.
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 06:04 PM
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QUOTE(Boo!piter @ Oct 27 2020, 06:01 PM) *
I've got everything crossed for a Biden win, quickly followed by a Trump arrest.



Trump remains President until noon on 20th Jan. no matter what happens.
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Dobbo
post Oct 27 2020, 06:09 PM
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I think Trump will win quite convincingly. Don't trust the polls at all.
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(Dobbo @ Oct 27 2020, 06:09 PM) *
I think Trump will win quite convincingly. Don't trust the polls at all.



OMG I hope you're right. ohmy.gif


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Oct 27 2020, 06:29 PM
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Andrew.
post Oct 27 2020, 06:18 PM
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Think and want Biden to win, I'm not a fan of the man but it's crucial for US democracy, for minorities and for society as a whole that Trump is out. Biden should win but even with the polls it wouldn't actually shock me if Trump did.
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Bré
post Oct 27 2020, 06:37 PM
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The polls would need to be historically wrong for Biden to not win, unless something happens in the next week that massively shifts what has been an election cycle with basically no major shifts in it (and what shifts there have been have been generally in Biden's favour, not Trump's). Of course there's a part of me that worries the polls might indeed just be historically wrong - or that Trump will somehow succeed in going full fascist and stealing the election - but I think the most likely case is Biden wins easily and we look back and wonder why we ever worried about it (just from being irrationally burned from 2016).

This election is (/ would be, assuming I'm correct xx) basically the opposite of 2016 in that regard - that year no one took Trump seriously despite, in retrospect, there being pretty clear signs that he had a good chance, and now people are overcorrecting and overestimating Trump's chances when Biden is objectively in a far better position than Clinton ever was.
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Sixth Sense
post Oct 27 2020, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 27 2020, 06:37 PM) *
unless something happens in the next week that massively shifts what has been an election cycle with basically no major shifts in it



I've thought of something that could happen which would virtually ensure a Trump win but don't want to say here. PM me if you like.


This post has been edited by Crazy Chris: Oct 27 2020, 06:39 PM
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Brett-Butler
post Oct 27 2020, 07:11 PM
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Because everything tells me that there's absolutely no way that Donald Trump can possibly win next week, I'll have to say that we will end up with a Trump victory. I still have a feeling that the polls are still not telling the whole story.

As for the 2nd question, in the absence of the American Solidarity Party and/or Kanye West as voting options, will have to go for Joe Biden to get Catholic #2 in the White House.
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Klaus
post Oct 27 2020, 07:51 PM
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I’ve prepared myself for a Trump victory since that fateful night in 2016 and so there’s no way I’m going through that and then chuck it away for one week before the election, setting myself up to get majorly disappointed with a vote AGAIN. If I’m going to be surprised, I pray it is a good surprise for once.
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Doctor Blind
post Oct 27 2020, 08:05 PM
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Biden is near certain to win the popular vote, but as to actually getting a EC majority is I think open to much more uncertainty than the polls are currently suggesting. A small change in a few states, particularly Pennsylvania and Florida could easily swing it to Trump despite a surge in turnout in the more Democrat minded states. I think that it will be quite close and I wouldn't want to completely rule out Trump winning. At the moment however my money would be on Biden, and as Bré suggests we may be overcompensating for the Trump 2016 effect which may have subsequently worn thin, especially with the Covid-19 pandemic putting a huge spotlight on his ineptitude as a world leader.

Barring any last minute shockers we should be looking at a narrow Biden win.
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J00psichord
post Oct 27 2020, 08:05 PM
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris @ Oct 27 2020, 06:04 PM) *
Trump remains President until noon on 20th Jan. no matter what happens.


Unless he dies of Covid or anything else related to the fact hes a morbidly obese old man with dementia.
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Bré
post Oct 27 2020, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Oct 27 2020, 08:05 PM) *
Biden is near certain to win the popular vote, but as to actually getting a EC majority is I think open to much more uncertainty than the polls are currently suggesting. A small change in a few states, particularly Pennsylvania and Florida could easily swing it to Trump despite a surge in turnout in the more Democrat minded states. I think that it will be quite close and I wouldn't want to completely rule out Trump winning. At the moment however my money would be on Biden, and as Bré suggests we may be overcompensating for the Trump 2016 effect which may have subsequently worn thin, especially with the Covid-19 pandemic putting a huge spotlight on his ineptitude as a world leader.

Barring any last minute shockers we should be looking at a narrow Biden win.


According to FiveThirtyEight's choose your own adventure map, Trump has essentially 0 chance of winning without winning Florida, but Biden is still a 2 to 1 favourite even if Trump does win Florida. Pennsylvania is a lot more concerning (Trump would be a 70% favourite to win if he wins Pennsylvania) - but again that goes back to my point that polls would need to be historically wrong, Biden would still be winning PA even if the polls are exactly as wrong this year as they were in 2016.

We're expected to know the result from Florida (and some other states where a Biden win would mean he has a 98+% chance of winning overall) on the night - the panic time comes if he loses all of those states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona being the main ones) because then it'll depend on whether Biden wins in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania which will take longer to be confirmed.

(don't know if you can tell I have spent an unhealthy amount of time reading FiveThirtyEight the last few weeks laugh.gif)
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Addy!os
post Oct 27 2020, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(Grim Bréaper @ Oct 27 2020, 11:22 PM) *
According to FiveThirtyEight's choose your own adventure map, Trump has essentially 0 chance of winning without winning Florida, but Biden is still a 2 to 1 favourite even if Trump does win Florida. Pennsylvania is a lot more concerning (Trump would be a 70% favourite to win if he wins Pennsylvania) - but again that goes back to my point that polls would need to be historically wrong, Biden would still be winning PA even if the polls are exactly as wrong this year as they were in 2016.

We're expected to know the result from Florida (and some other states where a Biden win would mean he has a 98+% chance of winning overall) on the night - the panic time comes if he loses all of those states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona being the main ones) because then it'll depend on whether Biden wins in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania which will take longer to be confirmed.

(don't know if you can tell I have spent an unhealthy amount of time reading FiveThirtyEight the last few weeks laugh.gif)


Gosh you gave me anxiety just reading that cause I can totally see something like that to happen. Like the next president won't be announced until week or two later and have us live in nightmare!!!
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