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> How many Christmas songs will we get in the chart this year?, 2020
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How many Christmas songs will we get in the chart this year?
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dan :: G
post Nov 5 2020, 05:16 PM
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It's coming close to being the "most wonderful time of the year" when Christmas songs take over the official chart and chart runs of normal songs get ruined.

Mariah Carey is already top 100 on Spotify and Apple Music so let's have some predictions. Usually this poll would be for the post-Christmas chart, however this year the biggest week for Christmas songs will be THE Christmas chart, which will be announced on Christmas Day itself. You are also welcome to predict how many Christmas songs will manage to remain in the chart the following week based majorly on Christmas Day streams, and discuss how you think the Christmas chart will look here alongside your prediction. How will Ellie do in her 2nd year and who will Alexa give a top 10 hit to?

It is also worth keeping in mind that Christmas Eve streams (traditionally the 2nd-biggest day for Christmas streaming) will not count, because it is a Thursday this year. These streams will instead be estimated based on an OCC formula, and are likely to be underestimated. The general mood of the public however due to the pandemic may give a boost to Christmas songs, as we've already seen with Mariah having a bigger "November 1st" effect this year.

The vast majority of Christmas songs are also subject to ACR for the entirety of their run, due to rules excluding songs older than 3 years from getting a reset. However as we've seen before, this will not stop the regulars from cropping up in the chart.

Last year's perfect storm produced this result.

QUOTE
30 songs top 40
61 songs top 100

How many in the top 40 (post-Christmas chart)
>30 [ 19 ]** [29.23%]
26-30 [ 17 ] ** [26.15%]
21-25 [ 13 ] ** [20.00%]
16-20 [ 8 ] ** [12.31%]
11-15 [ 7 ] ** [10.77%]
<10 [ 1 ] ** [1.54%]

How many in the top 100 (post-Christmas chart)
>70 [ 12 ] ** [18.46%]
61-70 [ 11 ] ** [16.92%]
51-60 [ 15 ] ** [23.08%]
41-50 [ 14 ] ** [21.54%]
31-40 [ 9 ] ** [13.85%]
<30 [ 4 ] ** [6.15%]


These were the Christmas entries in last year's chart (including the infamous 'River' taking the #1 spot)

QUOTE
01 11 05 Ellie Goulding ~ River 🎄
02 08 99 Mariah Carey ~ All I Want For Christmas Is You 🎄
03 05 89 Wham! ~ Last Christmas 🎄
04 14 104 The Pogues ~ Fairytale Of New York (feat. Kirsty MacColl) 🎄
06 16 71 Shakin' Stevens ~ Merry Christmas Everyone 🎄
07 17 80 Band Aid ~ Do They Know It's Christmas? 🎄
08 19 35 Elton John ~ Step Into Christmas 🎄
09 34 03 John Legend ~ Happy Christmas (War Is Over) 🎄
10 29 77 Wizzard ~ I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday 🎄
11 24 33 Michael Bublé ~ It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 🎄
13 28 18 Ariana Grande ~ Santa Tell Me 🎄
15 25 23 Leona Lewis ~ One More Sleep 🎄
17 36 12 Sia ~ Santa's Coming For Us 🎄
18 32 48 Brenda Lee ~ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 🎄
19 31 102 Slade ~ Merry Xmas Everybody 🎄
21 33 19 Kelly Clarkson ~ Underneath the Tree 🎄
22 43 07 Katy Perry ~ Cozy Little Christmas 🎄
24 42 56 Chris Rea ~ Driving Home For Christmas 🎄
25 46 35 Andy Williams ~ It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 🎄
27 47 23 Justin Bieber ~ Mistletoe 🎄
28 53 68 John & Yoko and the Plastic Ono Band with the Harlem Community Choir ~ Happy Xmas (War Is Over) 🎄
29 62 29 Coldplay ~ Christmas Lights 🎄
30 61 10 Bobby Helms ~ Jingle Bell Rock 🎄
31 66 40 Bing Crosby ~ White Christmas 🎄
32 64 14 Michael Bublé ~ Holly Jolly Christmas 🎄
33 70 08 Darlene Love ~ Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) 🎄
34 69 10 The Ronettes ~ Sleigh Ride 🎄
35 73 49 East 17 ~ Stay Another Day 🎄
37 67 32 Paul McCartney ~ Wonderful Christmastime 🎄
39 75 19 Dean Martin ~ Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 🎄
42 82 30 The Darkness ~ Christmas Time (Don't Let The Bells End) 🎄
46 89 09 The Jackson 5 ~ Santa Claus Is Coming To Town 🎄
47 87 30 Boney M. ~ Mary's Boy Child/Oh My Lord 🎄
51 97 09 Nat "King" Cole ~ The Christmas Song 🎄
52 91 18 Lily Allen ~ Somewhere Only We Know 🎄
53 83 02 Jonas Brothers ~ Like It's Christmas 🎄
54 96 05 José Feliciano ~ Feliz Navidad 🎄
55 RE 10 Eartha Kitt ~ Santa Baby 🎄
56 RE 23 Jona Lewie ~ Stop The Cavalry 🎄
61 RE 21 Pretenders ~ 2000 Miles 🎄
63 RE 11 Perry Como and The Fontane Sisters ~ It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 🎄
65 RE 03 Frank Sinatra ~ Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 🎄
67 RE 06 Sam Smith ~ Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas 🎄
68 RE 11 Elvis Presley ~ Blue Christmas 🎄
69 RE 20 Mud ~ Lonely This Christmas 🎄
70 NE 01 Jessie J ~ Man With The Bag 🎄
71 RE 09 The Waitresses ~ Christmas Wrapping 🎄
72 RE 12 Bruce Springsteen ~ Santa Claus Is Comin' To Town 🎄
73 NE 01 Liam Payne ~ All I Want (For Christmas) 🎄
74 RE 17 Kylie Minogue ~ Santa Baby 🎄
77 RE 06 Michael Bublé ~ Santa Claus Is Coming To Town 🎄
80 RE 17 Gabrielle Aplin ~ The Power Of Love 🎄
81 RE 14 Cliff Richard ~ Mistletoe and Wine 🎄
82 RE 05 Gwen Stefani ~ You Make It Feel Like Christmas (feat. Blake Shelton) 🎄
83 RE 01 Chuck Berry ~ Run Rudolph Run 🎄
86 RE 07 Queen ~ Thank God It's Christmas 🎄
92 RE 02 Little Mix ~ One I've Been Missing 🎄
93 RE 02 Frank Sinatra ~ Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas 🎄
94 RE 07 Chris De Burgh ~ A Spaceman Came Travelling 🎄
98 RE 02 John Williams ~ Carol Of The Bells 🎄
99 RE 02 Taylor Swift ~ Christmas Tree Farm 🎄

The ratio status of all the above songs remain the same this year, except for 'Santa's Coming For Us' and 'You Make It Feel Like Christmas' which has now celebrated their 3rd birthday and thus remains on ACR.
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steve201
post Nov 5 2020, 11:19 PM
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Sad that Sia will be on ACR but hope to see Liam and Jonas Brothers taking its place by repeaking this year. Also Cozy Little Christmas to do them same!

Kind of forgot John Legend charted so high last year as the secondary Amazon track after Ellie!
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777666jason
post Nov 5 2020, 11:23 PM
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Wouldnt be suprised if people hammer Christmas music more than ever after this year, plus it falls on a Friday so will help
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steve201
post Nov 5 2020, 11:25 PM
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As Dan explained above fridays chart on Xmas day will mean Xmas eves streams will be under estimated
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Rob S
post Nov 6 2020, 01:32 AM
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Christmas being on Friday makes a bit of a difference this year. I'm thinking for that reason we'll have less than last year and also even less for the week after as you have a whole week after the songs nosedive as opposed to 2 or 3 days between christmas and the next chart where they usually hold up slightly better.

I'll predict 15 for top 40 (69 for top 100) and 8 for post Christmas.


This post has been edited by Rob S~: Nov 6 2020, 01:35 AM
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chrissmith276
post Nov 6 2020, 03:34 AM
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If lockdown measures are still in effect beyond 2 December (which they inevitably will be at least under a tiered system) the streaming numbers could be huge for Xmas songs this year!!
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Dobbo.
post Nov 6 2020, 09:01 AM
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Less than previous years due to the tracking week.
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Bjork
post Nov 6 2020, 09:15 AM
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Taylor Xmas Farm song will be big this year I think, it's already high on the Xmas Spotify playlist and it's one of the few not on ACR. Katy Perry is also surprisingly high so could benefit too, same was Liam Payne and Jonas Bros. The Spotify Xmas list has a lot of different Xmas songs, more global than before, so UK-centric Xmas songs like Wizzard and Slade will do worst I think.

Does Amazon already have a Xmas playlist?
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dan :: G
post Nov 6 2020, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Nov 6 2020, 09:15 AM) *
Taylor Xmas Farm song will be big this year I think, it's already high on the Xmas Spotify playlist and it's one of the few not on ACR. Katy Perry is also surprisingly high so could benefit too, same was Liam Payne and Jonas Bros. The Spotify Xmas list has a lot of different Xmas songs, more global than before, so UK-centric Xmas songs like Wizzard and Slade will do worst I think.

Does Amazon already have a Xmas playlist?

On Spotify, perhaps. But let's not forget Apple Music (and Amazon?) give them much better playlisting.

I'm looking at AM's top Xmas playlist now and it goes like:

1 Mariah
2 Pogues
3 Wham
4 Wizzard
5 Slade
6 Chris Rea
7 Elton John
8 Shakin Stevens
9 Brenda Lee
10 John Lennon
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Bjork
post Nov 6 2020, 09:27 AM
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ouch that's a very retro Xmas playlists, I'd rather listen to the Spotify one that at least has some newies and different classics too
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dan :: G
post Nov 6 2020, 09:31 AM
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Anyway, I'm going to predict the 21-25 and 51-60 brackets. Should be slightly less than last year because of the timing, but still a big year for Christmas songs.

'River' will be just about wholly reliant on Alexa again this year, it's still not on Spotify/AM and if they do add it, it probably won't be playlisted. Predicting top 20 for it due to its lack of ACR status (provided Amazon haven't dropped it entirely this year), but probably not much better than that given Alexa's main focus this year will probably be on a different song(s).

Mariah of course has very little chance of making #1 this year, given LadBaby or another charity single is almost certainly this year's Christmas #1. Her best chance would be the week before and I just don't see it, unless as rumoured she does release a Ariana Grande/Jennifer Hudson duet version and if there isn't significant competition.
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dan :: G
post Nov 6 2020, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Nov 6 2020, 09:27 AM) *
ouch that's a very retro Xmas playlists, I'd rather listen to the Spotify one that at least has some newies and different classics too

Apple Music do have a 'Christmas Pop Hits' playlist, which is more modern, but the majority of streams will of course be for the classics playlist.

1 Leona Lewis
2 Ariana Grande
3 Kelly Clarkson
4 Mariah Carey
5 Wham
6 Justin Bieber
7 Katy Perry
8 Alexandra Burke [Hallelujah] huh.gif
9 Liam Payne & Dixie D'Amelio
10 Michael Bublé

this new Liam Payne song seems to be playlisted well already, could perhaps go top 40.
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Mangø
post Nov 6 2020, 09:39 AM
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Carly Rae Jepsen's 'It's Not Christmas Till Somebody Cries' for surprise Christmas #1 biggrin.gif
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Doctor Blind
post Nov 6 2020, 09:42 AM
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My answer: Too many.
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dan :: G
post Nov 16 2020, 05:47 PM
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current week in the official chart:
#60 - Mariah Carey
#76 - Wham

same week, last year:
#77 - Mariah Carey

-x-

official chart midweek update:
#36 - Mariah Carey
#46 - Wham
#59 - The Pogues
#64 - Justin Bieber [Rockin Around... – Amazon exclusive]
#67 - Shakin' Stevens
#75 - Elton John
#80 - Michael Bublé
#81 - Band Aid
#90 - Wizzard

same week, last year:
#59 - Mariah Carey
#80 - Wham

and as everything seems to be happening a week early, here's the following week, last year:
#34 - Mariah Carey
#43 - Wham
#57 - Ellie Goulding
#59 - Little Mix
#71 - The Pogues
#77 - Band Aid
#79 - Ariana Grande
#82 - Shakin' Stevens

so far it looks like we really will get Christmas Chaos this year, could potentially be even moreso than last year even with how the dates fall.
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steve201
post Nov 16 2020, 08:06 PM
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Looks like the Bieber Amazon exclusive will be the highest charting from the first weekend on sale, not sure it’ll peak at number one due to the way the dates fall where last year ‘River’ was able to rise to number one after Ladbaby got the Christmas number one.

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Dobbo.
post Nov 17 2020, 09:19 AM
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HERE for Christmas chart chaos in NOVEMBER YES!
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jlj
post Nov 17 2020, 02:10 PM
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Oh god probably 3/4 of the top 40 when it comes to Xmas week cry.gif

I can’t bare the same songs year on year reentering and sometimes even repeaking or getting new peaks whilst anything what’s new original Christmas music struggles.
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detonate
post Nov 17 2020, 03:02 PM
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The less the better.
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TheSnake
post Nov 17 2020, 07:29 PM
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Less this year than last, I think enthusiasm for Christmas songs will be less because of the pandemic.
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