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> Christmas songs on Jan 1st singles chart, Predictions
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GraceAJX
post Dec 21 2020, 01:00 PM
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With Christmas day this year falling on a Friday, I am curious to see people's predictions for how songs will hold up on the January 1st (W/E Jan 7th) chart, with only one big day of Christmas music in the tracking week (the 25th).

Streams on the 25th are usually massive; in 2018, the entire top 13 on UK Spotify earned over 1 million streams, and the top 9 last year. Bearing in mind that most, if not all, of these songs will have their streams halved, who are you expecting to stay on the chart and where? Mariah and Wham! still top 10? Maybe Jess and Justin to hold up thanks to Fraudlexa?


This post has been edited by ts7sfkptm: Dec 21 2020, 01:01 PM
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Mart!n
post Dec 21 2020, 01:08 PM
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I don't think there be any to be honest, as most people will start playing new music after Xmas day, if people are given a CD album as a gift, surely their mood will shift to that. Or stream what's available.
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daniellovesmusic
post Dec 21 2020, 01:11 PM
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I don’t there will be many either. Christmas Day will be the only day that tracking week where people listen to Christmas songs.
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dan::G
post Dec 21 2020, 01:13 PM
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You're both underestimating how huge Christmas Day is for streaming. That day alone will ensure we get a good chunk of Christmas songs remaining in the chart. Mariah and Wham will definitely be top 20, maybe even top 10.
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steve201
post Dec 21 2020, 01:15 PM
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How many acr streams did the number 40 Christmas track need on Friday for instance?
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Maestro
post Dec 21 2020, 01:32 PM
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Mariah and Wham top 10 for sure imo, especially if positions and Sweet Melody go to ACR this Friday
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Sour Candy
post Dec 21 2020, 01:40 PM
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If Mimi gets, let's say 1.1M streams on Friday, and then drops to 300k on Boxing Day and then gradually out of top 200, it's not enough even for top 20. Should stay in top 40 though.
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Mangø
post Dec 21 2020, 01:42 PM
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Surely this should be fairly easy to predict based on how many streams Christmas tracks got on Christmas day last year and obviously taking a few other factors into account.
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777666jason
post Dec 21 2020, 01:42 PM
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Yeah wouldnt be suprised if the big 3 are still in from Christmas day streams alone but other than that dont see many
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daniellovesmusic
post Dec 21 2020, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 21 2020, 01:15 PM) *
How many acr streams did the number 40 Christmas track need on Friday for instance?


Sleigh Ride is currently #40 on the Official Singles Chart, and that had 1,992,318 streams on Spotify alone last week.
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Dobbo.
post Dec 21 2020, 01:50 PM
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Hardly any remaining in the top 75.
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oof
post Dec 21 2020, 01:57 PM
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Would the Thursday stream calculation algorithm artificially boost Christmas songs due to such high Christmas Day streams?
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dan::G
post Dec 21 2020, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(elf @ Dec 21 2020, 01:57 PM) *
Would the Thursday stream calculation algorithm artificially boost Christmas songs due to such high Christmas Day streams?

No - it takes into account trends throughout the week - and obviously Christmas songs will be rapidly declining in sales every day past the 25th.
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steve201
post Dec 21 2020, 06:55 PM
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Would they also then do that this week as Xmas Eve is similar but slightly below Xmas days streams?
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JulianT
post Dec 22 2020, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 21 2020, 06:55 PM) *
Would they also then do that this week as Xmas Eve is similar but slightly below Xmas days streams?

I think the Christmas Eve streams for Christmas songs reflected in this week's chart will be upweighted somewhat, but only based on trends showing up to the 23rd. Therefore the big spike on Christmas Eve will likely be underestimated.
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steve201
post Dec 22 2020, 03:33 PM
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Bit ridiculous like
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