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| Predict the biggest single of the 2020s, To be revisited in 9 years’ time! |
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 Jan 9 2021, 02:58 PM
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#1
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
 
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I thought it would be fun to do this.
In previous decades a poll like this after the first year of the decade would have been fairly meaningless as the answer would have been very likely to have been something not yet released. However in the streaming age we know that already established songs have a big head-start, though something else could yet catch up. Will Blinding Lights maintain its pole position for the full decade or will one of the other monsters from the last couple of years eventually overtake it? Will one of the other evergreen tracks eventually get there, or could it be a Christmas song? Of course we don’t know what chart rule changes, or changes to the way we consume music, will occur over the decade, but that’s all part of the fun. See you in 9 years! |
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Jan 9 2021, 03:07 PM
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#2
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BuzzJack Climber
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I love Mariah fan delusion.
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Jan 9 2021, 03:18 PM
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#3
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
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I think Mariah is a good shout tbh. If she continues to sell at approximately 600k each year she’ll do 6 million for the decade, I can’t imagine any hit, even one as massive as Blinding Lights attaining those numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mariah, Wham! And the Killers as the top 3
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Jan 10 2021, 02:37 AM
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#4
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Shakin Stevens
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There’s a good chance but music has a funny way of changing in a decade especially since Mariah and co have been played a lot already this century!
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Jan 10 2021, 06:43 AM
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#5
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"Jayrusaleminians" - Umi.
Group: Chart Mod
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2020 sales:
2,208,732 - The Weeknd - Blinding Lights [2020 EOY #1] 1,594,532 - Tones & I - Dance Monkey [2020 EOY #2] 1,149,218 - Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved [2020 EOY #8] 556,142 - Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You [2020 EOY #53] 530,557 - Ed Sheeran - Perfect [2020 EOY #57] 521,654 - Wham! - Last Christmas [2020 EOY #60] 521,363 - The Killers - Mr. Brightside [2020 EOY #61] 490,349 - Pinkfong - Baby Shark [2020 EOY #72] I would certainly love Mariah to be able to do it! I actually could see Blinding Lights going on to be the biggest selling song of the decade though. It does feel funny to make an assumption this early on, but it certainly has an advantage of having a headstart and its future yearly sales will presumably be very healthy. |
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Jan 10 2021, 07:13 AM
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#6
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BuzzJack Legend
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Dance Monkey, cos the GP has really bad taste
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Jan 10 2021, 05:30 PM
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#7
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
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Elton John’s tribute when the Queen dies will be massive
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Jan 10 2021, 05:41 PM
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#8
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padaan, padaan
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no doubt we will see a big charity/campaign release upon the Queen’s death, but I don’t see it having half as much selling power as Candle in the Wind did in the day, we’re in an entirely different era of music consumption now.
(there’ll probably also be a campaign to get that Sex Pistols song to number one) |
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Jan 10 2021, 05:53 PM
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#9
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
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I’ve just looked it up - 658,000 copies of Candle in the Wind in ONE DAY and then 1,547,000 the following week!! That is breathtaking!!
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Jan 10 2021, 07:40 PM
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#10
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Radical Pink Troll
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Are we actually sure the Queen is dying this decade? She’s got another seven years until she reaches the age her mum was when she died and she could easily surpass that.
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Jan 10 2021, 07:42 PM
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#11
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BuzzJack Legend
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I picked Wham - can see the popularity of AIWFCIY declining a bit year by year.
But watch it being Mr. Brightside, slaying the YE top 70 from now to eternity. |
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Jan 10 2021, 08:01 PM
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#12
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I found the love, I found the love in me
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Something not yet released.
I wanna say it'll be by an artist we haven't even heard of either! |
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Jan 10 2021, 10:27 PM
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#13
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
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QUOTE(T Boy @ Jan 10 2021, 07:40 PM)  Are we actually sure the Queen is dying this decade? She’s got another seven years until she reaches the age her mum was when she died and she could easily surpass that. She was born in April 1926, so she would have to 103 to survive the decade! |
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Jan 10 2021, 11:16 PM
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#14
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This is where you end and I begin
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Something not yet released.
I get your point in the OP about streaming changing the game but I still think it's more likely than not that a song released in the next 8 years will be the biggest hit of the decade. I'd take a stab at it being released either between now and the end of 2023. 
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Jan 11 2021, 07:46 AM
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#15
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Radical Pink Troll
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QUOTE(chartjack2 @ Jan 10 2021, 10:27 PM) She was born in April 1926, so she would have to 103 to survive the decade! There’s every chance that will happen giving her genes and standard of health care. Her mother was approaching 102 when she died, an aunt did live that long and her husband is turning 100 in June. |
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Jan 11 2021, 11:30 AM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
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100% something not released yet.
Although I now pose the question were all the other end of decade best sellers from songs released during the first year (or before) of that decade? |
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Jan 11 2021, 05:51 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Legend
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QUOTE(Dobbo. @ Jan 11 2021, 11:30 AM) 100% something not released yet. Although I now pose the question were all the other end of decade best sellers from songs released during the first year (or before) of that decade? Well no. Especially not in the physical sales era. But it's different with streaming. I'm placing my bets on Mr. Brightside for this decade. Or if a song even bigger than Blinding Lights gets released in the next 12 months. Or if radio completely ends in a few years that would lead to massive growth in streaming, meaning hit songs at the end of the decade could have a chance. Or another kind of major shift in the music industry could create conditions where songs later in the decade would have a chance. However, if things stay similar to how they are for the rest of the decade, I don't think any song released 2022 or later would really have a chance. Although, thinking about it, One Kiss was year-end #1 in the streaming era whilst being released when it was already about 25% of the way through the year, which on a decade scale is like being released in mid-2022, but that only JUST beat out God's Plan in the end, and Blinding Lights is probably a more formidable opponent than God's Plan. |
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Jan 11 2021, 06:27 PM
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#18
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Karma is my boyfriend.
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drivers license x
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Jan 12 2021, 12:23 AM
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#19
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
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Thanks for all the thoughts and votes!
So the consensus seems to be that Mariah and The Weeknd stand the best chance of the songs already established. Either of those could easily do more than 5 million units over the 10 years. Even if the Queen dies which I’m not sure she will, it seems very unlikely that anything will reach that kind of level mainly on pure sales. Maybe I should have split the last option into something not yet released by an artist we already know and something by someone new. If it is someone we know, who do we think it will be? Adele? Sheeran? Bieber? Someone up and coming? If someone we don’t know will it be a solo act? A collaboration? A DJ feature? A group? |
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Jan 12 2021, 07:09 AM
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#20
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BuzzJack Gold Member
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Shallow by Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper
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