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> Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Predictions
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J❄️hq
post Mar 15 2021, 03:39 PM
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I don't think we properly got into predictions last year due to the cancellation coming so soon after we knew all the entries

Anyway, now that semi 2 is complete, here are my own personal initial predictions for this year

Jaw on the floor if this doesn't get announced through
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Iceland

Very likely qualifiers
San Marino
Moldova
Finland

Squeezing IN
Albania
Greece
Serbia
Czech Republic

Borderline OUT
Estonia
Poland

Unlikely qualifiers
Austria
Denmark
Latvia
Georgia
Portugal

I think Portugal/Georgia/Latvia are all pretty much dead, but who knows what could be the "Nobody But You"/"Proud" jury moment of the year if there happens to be one!

I think Polish diaspora or Estonia taking another average male to the final are the most likely upsets here, at the expense of
- Czech Republic (a personal fave of mine that I feel will overperform compared to fan response, but maybe not?)
- Serbia (Hurricane are huge in the Balkans as the Youtube views show, but is this the most friendly semi? I'm not sure)
- Greece (I have questions about her vocal ability and how they're going to stage it - the once unstoppable Greece haven't had a top 15 since 2013!)
And possibly Albania but it feels very standard '17th in the final' for them
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Colm
post Mar 15 2021, 04:09 PM
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Both semis are semis of death.
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diva thee muffin
post Mar 15 2021, 04:43 PM
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Ok, so I've been working on an algorithm that takes note of each country's votes in the past both based on jury voting and televoting. Obviously it's quite flawed as I haven't found a way to take in things like genre and other factors but I made it so that it calculates previous voting patterns as well as my modifier which can increase or decrease a specific country's score if I disagreed with the way the votes looked at first. Here's what I've come up with for semi 2 but it's definitely bound to change once we draw closer to the contest.

JURY VOTES




TELEVOTES




RESULTS


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 15 2021, 05:04 PM
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J❄️hq
post Mar 15 2021, 05:17 PM
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Semi 1

Jaw on the floor if this doesn't get announced through
Sweden
Cyprus
Lithuania
Malta

Very likely qualifiers
Azerbaijan
Russia
Romania

Squeezing IN
Belgium
Ireland
Croatia

Borderline OUT
Norway
Israel
Ukraine

Unlikely qualifiers
Australia
Slovenia
North Macedonia

As much as I love Australia, I'm excited at the prospect of no country having a 100% qualification record after this year, and I think it's a near certainty for Australia, they're gonna need a really strong jury vote because I think this will tank in the televote. Predicting Ukraine out also makes me nervous, could it really happen, but I saw them as being borderline IN last year and 'Shum' feels less accessible to me than 'Solovey', and potentially not having Belarus giving them votes could hurt them too.

Belgium as a song I think is a likely qualifier, but staging could let them down. On the flipside of the coin, I think Israel as a song is unlikely to make the final, but Eden is such a good performer that she could really sell it.

Norway...part of me is willing it to be a NQ to serve them right for not sending KEiiNO, but he's one of only four male vocal entries in the semi which could work in his favour. But my gut is saying that TIX is very much a 'local' act and the juries and public will just see the performance as being a bit too ridiculous.

QUOTE(Colm @ Mar 15 2021, 04:09 PM) *
Both semis are semis of death.


Yes, I love the glow up of semi 2 this year!
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Colm
post Mar 15 2021, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 15 2021, 04:43 PM) *
Ok, so I've been working on an algorithm that takes note of each country's votes in the past both based on jury voting and televoting. Obviously it's quite flawed as I haven't found a way to take in things like genre and other factors but I made it so that it calculates previous voting patterns as well as my modifier which can increase or decrease a specific country's score if I disagreed with the way the votes looked at first. Here's what I've come up with for semi 2 but it's definitely bound to change once we draw closer to the contest.

JURY VOTES



Am I getting this right? You made a prediction on the juries giving Switzerland 187 and then you divide up that 187 based on previous voting patterns?

Otherwise, I dont understand how this works.


This post has been edited by Colm: Mar 15 2021, 05:32 PM
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diva thee muffin
post Mar 15 2021, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE(Colm @ Mar 15 2021, 05:30 PM) *
Am I getting this right? You made a prediction on the juries giving Switzerland 187 and then you divide up that 187 based on previous voting patterns?

Otherwise, I dont understand how this works.

Noo, it's far more complex than that I'm afraid haha. I collected all votes from nation X to nation Y since 2010. The algorithm I created then calculates the votes for each nation by looking at:

- How many points a nation has given to a specific country the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes.
- (divided by) How many points a nation has had the opportunity to give that specific country over the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes.
- The score modifier I gave each country to adjust accordingly.

It's very automated and if I change the modifier for one country it affects all countries on my list but it works well and delivers semi-realistic results even though some countries are always unrealistically skewed in their scores so I have to scale them down further with the modifier (eg. Sweden in jury votes, Russia in televotes, etc). I'm finishing up a similar one for Semi 1 now that Malta's song is out!
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Liаm
post Mar 15 2021, 05:50 PM
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Semi 1
Almost certain: Malta, Sweden, Lithuania, Cyprus
Most probably: Azerbaijan, Ireland, Russia
Borderline (leaning towards in): Belgium, Romania,
Borderline (leaning towards out): Norway, Israel, Croatia
Most probably DNQ: Ukraine
Almost certain DNQ: Slovenia, Australia, Macedonia (and Belarus)


Semi 2
Almost certain: Switzerland, Bulgaria, San Marino
Most probably: Iceland, Finland, Moldova
Borderline (leaning towards in): Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia
Borderline (leaning towards out): Albania, Serbia, Greece
Most probably DNQ: Latvia, Georgia, Austria, Denmark, Portugal

Semi 2 feels too clear cut to the point I bet two of the ones I have bottom will snatch it from something we feel is obvious and cause a huge upset laugh.gif Eurovision is just never that simple.
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Colm
post Mar 15 2021, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(diva thin muffin @ Mar 15 2021, 05:44 PM) *
Noo, it's far more complex than that I'm afraid haha. I collected all votes from nation X to nation Y since 2010. The algorithm I created then calculates the votes for each nation by looking at:

- How many points a nation has given to a specific country the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes.
- (divided by) How many points a nation has had the opportunity to give that specific country over the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes.
- The score modifier I gave each country to adjust accordingly.

It's very automated and if I change the modifier for one country it affects all countries on my list but it works well and delivers semi-realistic results even though some countries are always unrealistically skewed in their scores so I have to scale them down further with the modifier (eg. Sweden in jury votes, Russia in televotes, etc). I'm finishing up a similar one for Semi 1 now that Malta's song is out!



Is it the score modifier that is key to Switzerland, Iceland and Bulgaria being top 3. Sorry if I appear stupid.


This post has been edited by Colm: Mar 15 2021, 05:55 PM
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diva thee muffin
post Mar 15 2021, 06:11 PM
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QUOTE(Colm @ Mar 15 2021, 05:53 PM) *
Is it the score modifier that is key to Switzerland, Iceland and Bulgaria being top 3. Sorry if I appear stupid.

Yes and no. The score modifier essentially either increases or decreases the score a specific country has. Without the modifiers it's a somewhat level playing field with Bulgaria and Portugal sticking out a bit thanks to good scores in recent years while everyone else has somewhere between 30 and 80 points on each side.

Semi Final #1

This was a bit tougher to predict so that I'd be happy although I'm still not really. A lot of these will depend on staging and hype leading up to the contest. A lot of countries in this semi have some STRONGGG diaspora that was hard to affect and it's a very uneven playing field as these songs are very much either jury darlings or televote hogs or something quite unclear. I'm still unsure whether the juries will actually like Malta or Australia or Russia for instance and I have no idea if the televoters will like Ukraine or Norway because they're a bit out there but could totally work. So here's what I came up with..

JURY VOTES




TELEVOTES




RESULTS


This post has been edited by diva thin muffin: Mar 15 2021, 06:14 PM
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BiminiBonBoulex
post Mar 15 2021, 06:13 PM
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So starting with Semi One (i.e. the deathiest of death semis) I see it going something like this

01 Malta
02 Lithuania
03 Sweden
04 Azerbaijan
05 Croatia
06 Cyprus
07 Belgium
08 Ireland
09 Norway
10 Russia

11 North Macedonia
12 Ukraine
13 Australia
14 Romania
15 Slovenia
16 Israel
17 Belarus (if they're still showing up lol)

North Macedonia are being undersold as I think that could really come to life live on stage
Russia could run the risk of having very little appeal outside the Russosphere and not exactly being jury catnip
Norway will probably qualify on televotes alone
Israel potentially accidentally last
Pretty certain the top 3 of the semi is Malta, Lithuania and Sweden
Ukraine and Australia strongly at risk of losing their 100% streak
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BiminiBonBoulex
post Mar 15 2021, 07:18 PM
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For Semi Two my very early predictions would be

01 Iceland
02 Bulgaria
03 Greece
04 San Marino
05 Switzerland
06 Moldova
07 Finland
08 Czech Republic
09 Albania
10 Estonia

11 Denmark
12 Serbia
13 Poland
14 Portugal
15 Latvia
16 Austria
17 Georgia

Serbia's got very little of its usual supporters in this semi and coupled with the tendency for the boring bast*rd juries to vote down songs like that I could see them really struggling
The flip side is that Albania has a lot of neighbour votes to draw on and could be the semi closer so I'm pencilling them in as through.
I'm pretty confident all of that top seven will be in and I opted for Czech Republic and Estonia as the two borderline qualifiers based on Estonia's nordic, baltic and soviet bloc support and the Czechs having the best song of those borderline ones.
Denmark may actually surprise people by being something non threatening and boppy in the second half of semi 2 surrounded by a lot of weird/challenging stuff
I think Switzerland will be a jury darling but utterly ignored by televoters meaning it qualifies.
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ScottyEm
post Mar 15 2021, 08:30 PM
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Id argue Latvia is a likely qualifier?
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ScottyEm
post Mar 15 2021, 11:49 PM
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Semi 1:

Defo:
Sweden
Cyprus
Malta
Lithuania

Likely:
Azerbaijan
Slovenia
Ukraine

Borderline-In:
Russia
Croatia
Romania

Borderline-Out:
Australia
Belgium
North Macedonia
Israel

Unlikely:
Ireland
Norway
Belarus

Semi 2:

Defo:
Iceland
Bulgaria
Switzerland

Likely:
Greece
Moldova
Latvia
San Marino

Borderline-In:
Czech Republic
Finland
Albania

Borderline-Out:
Serbia
Austria

Unlikely:
Estonia
Poland

DOA:
Denmark
Portugal
Georgia

Semi 1 is a *lot* more difficult to predict.

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Ghosty.
post Mar 16 2021, 02:17 PM
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Initial predictions:

Semi Final 1:

01 Sweden
02 Malta
03 Lithuania
04 Cyprus
05 Russia
06 Australia
07 Belgium
08 Ireland
09 North Macedonia
10 Ukraine
---
11 Romania
12 Croatia
13 Azerbaijan
14 Slovenia
15 Norway
16 Israel

Semi Final 2:

01 Switzerland
02 Bulgaria
03 Iceland
04 Finland
05 San Marino
06 Estonia
07 Moldova
08 Albania
09 Czech Republic
10 Portugal
---
11 Greece
12 Denmark
13 Serbia
14 Georgia
15 Austria
16 Latvia
17 Poland
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AdamAloud
post Mar 21 2021, 09:57 AM
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Semi 1

01. Malta
02. Lithuania
03. Sweden
04. Belgium
05. Russia
06. Ireland
07. Romania
08. Cyprus
09. Norway
10. Ukraine
11. Azerbaijan
12. Croatia
13. Slovenia
14. Australia
15. North Macedonia
16. Israel

None of these feel dead on arrival? Eden is a fierce live performer so it seems ridiculous to have her last but like Lex said, it could be a case of accidental last. But with the revamp coming it could also quite easily knock Croatia/Azerbaijan/Cyprus down to accidental last.

On the flip side I'm only confident of my top 3 qualifying at the moment, such a close semi!

Semi 2

01. Switzerland
02. Iceland
03. San Marino
04. Finland
05. Bulgaria
06. Czech Republic
07. Greece
08. Moldova
09. Estonia
10. Albania
11. Denmark
12. Poland
13. Serbia
14. Austria
15. Portugal
16. Georgia
17. Latvia

I think the bottom 3 I've put here will need a miracle to get to Saturday night, Vincent has the advantage of being the sole ballad in a VERY uptempo first half so perhaps he could do it especially if the juries go for it but I'm yet to be convinced. I'm already preparing for a Hurricane DNQ, they've got very few neighbours to help them through.

The top 8 I'm pretty certain on making it through at the moment.
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gooddelta
post Mar 21 2021, 10:30 AM
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Id be astonished if Cyprus are in any danger, I think theyll be comfortably top five in Semi 1 with Malta, Sweden and Lithuania. Its a big song and Im sure theyll go all out with the performance and staging. I agree that beyond that its almost impossible to call. I suspect Russia and Norway will qualify though, both with a decent showing on the televote.

Im concerned for Australia but the only one I think Id be mildly surprised at going through is Croatia, not that it sounds like a last placer in the semi but it could happen.

In Semi 2 I think Denmark could do surprisingly ok, at least enough to qualify. I agree though Adam about your top eight going through, perhaps at the expense of Estonia or Albania.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 21 2021, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Mar 21 2021, 10:30 AM) *
Id be astonished if Cyprus are in any danger, I think theyll be comfortably top five in Semi 1 with Malta, Sweden and Lithuania.


I definitely think it's more likely to go through than not, although Tamta only came 9th in the semi and with Greece in semi 2 they're down 24 points before they start so I can see an, albeit unlikely, scenario where it turns out to be the fan fave flop of the year.
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ScottyEm
post Mar 21 2021, 01:31 PM
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I can’t see a path for Norway? To anyone outside of Norway, he looks like he’s basically taking the piss. Without the aesthetic, it’s a drippy, dated boyband song. Juries will likely kill it.

I also think Croatia is being relatively underestimated. She’s up against lots of bops but she has great attack, a very hooky song that has immediacy. Not suggesting it’s a likely qualifier but I’m semi-expecting to see Albina on Saturday.


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gooddelta
post Mar 21 2021, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(ScottyEm @ Mar 21 2021, 01:31 PM) *
I cant see a path for Norway? To anyone outside of Norway, he looks like hes basically taking the piss. Without the aesthetic, its a drippy, dated boyband song. Juries will likely kill it.


It has a very instant melody and is the sort of thing I could imagine being popular with younger audiences, partly due to the aesthetic, but it also sounds like the sort of thing that could potentially blow up on TikTok, it feels a bit hairbrush karaoke. It is dated but at the same time its not too dissimilar to something like The Kid Laroi.

I think it will do ok to badly with the juries but come surprisingly high in the televote, so I do see it scraping in.
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Colm
post Mar 21 2021, 02:42 PM
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I'm doing this without regard to where in the running order each song is, vote-friendly neighbours in the same semi or historical voting patterns. Just basically going on how accessible/quality the songs are and how much of a buzz is going on for each song. Yes, I do understand how much the fabric of the universe would be ripped if Ukraine don't qualify.

Semi 1
1 Malta
2 Sweden
3 Cyprus
4 Azerbaijan
5 Romania
6 Lithuania
7 Ireland
8 Croatia
9 Norway
10 Israel

11 Belgium
12 Australia
13 Slovenia
14 Ukraine
15 Russia
16 North Macedonia

Semi 2

1 Switzerland
2 Finland
3 Bulgaria
4 Iceland
5 San Marino
6 Greece
7 Czech Republic
8 Moldova
9 Serbia
10 Poland

11 Estonia
12 Albania
13 Denmark
14 Portugal
15 Georgia
16 Latvia
17 Austria

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