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> 2021 German Federal Election
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Silas
post Apr 20 2021, 09:53 PM
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Lot happening today but the big news out of the Bundesrepublik is That both the Greens and the CDU/CSU have Chosen their Kanzler/in candidate and the above polling is the immediate reaction of the German public. The Greens leading a national poll for the first time.


Potentially a seismic shift in the largest EU member
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Izzy 💀☄
post Apr 21 2021, 07:10 AM
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Woah, that's quite interesting to imagine - as is any situation with the CDU Union not in power to be honest*. The German Green party is a lot stronger than many other Green parties but it's nice to imagine a knockon effect. From what I hear they have some issues that make them a lot less radical than other Green parties - though that might contribute to their popularity, though what's your impression of them?

*assuming a SPD/Green coalition is a possibility?
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Silas
post Apr 21 2021, 07:28 AM
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They want a 130 km/h mandatory Autobahn speed limit, so bad. My impression is Bad. 🤣

Nah on a serious note. They are a lot more grounded and realist than most green parties are. They would be a very vocal champion of HS2 for example as here they are a big voice in favour of further improving ICE to replace domestic flights. They’re fairly centre-left rather than the tree hugging musli eating weirdos that they were seen and dismissed as until fairly recently. I haven’t seen the firm platform yet because we’re still months out from the elec but they seem to be quite pragmatic and collegiate. Remind me more of the Scottish Greens than the E&W Greens tbh


Current coalition possibilities are:
Schwarz-Grün - CDU/CSU + Greens (with polling volatile enough that either could be the lead partner there)
Rot-Rot-Grün - SPD + Die Linke + Greens (Lead)
Traffic light - Green (lead) + SPD + FDP

All are constellations currently found in Germany. Baden-Württemberg has swapped from a CDU lead to a Green lead Schwarz-Grün coalition and the SPD head a traffic light in Rheinland-Pfalz. SPD also head RRG in Berlin but it’s likely that come the Berlin state election later this year the Greens will head a re-elected RRG instead.
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Suedehead2
post Apr 21 2021, 07:44 AM
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My recollection from the time is that Die Grune (can’t be bothered to find the umlaut) had a major reckoning when they were in power with the SPD. There was conflict between the fundamental wing (Fundis) and the more realistic wing (Realis). The Realis won at the time and have remained dominant.
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Izzy 💀☄
post Aug 16 2021, 11:24 AM
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Checked this against the latest party polls, CDU are still ahead but Grüne is now basically level with SPD; that's interesting, having a major European social democratic party stage a comeback from the yawning abyss of PASOKification would be very good news for the international centre-left.

There are a lot of interesting international elections this September and October (Japan, Canada, Norway, among others) but this is definitely the most interesting for my psephology side.
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Silas
post Aug 16 2021, 12:11 PM
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Scholz is drastically out polling the SPD

My personal view is that another GroKo would be killer for SPD but being the lead opposition party vs a CDU/CSU/Grüne coalition would be superb for their electoral prospects. Currently their support is being gutted to the Greens and Die Linke on a thought path of well if I vote SPD I just get a slightly tamer CDU so why bother. I think a term in opposition would do them wonders. However, mathematically an SPD led coalition could happen federally with the CDU as the primary opposition.

Unlike Labour I think the SPD do have somewhat of a clearer path back to health and that’s getting out from GroKo. (Theres many reasons this is the case. Primarily the electoral system is proportional and in order to put themselves in a good position they really need to be looking to clear 25% on the day in order to be able to coral a coalition without the CDU. Like an RRG is mathematically a good good possibility, considering they were a distant effective =3rd with FDP and AfD theyve already had a strong bounce
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Silas
post Aug 21 2021, 09:21 PM
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The German public have a new favourite Chancellor candidate!!! Scholz has now overhauled „none of the above, are we really sure we can’t get Angela to do another 4 years???“ to be the first actual human to lead this poll!!


I would be here for a Scholz administration. He is competent, fairly progressive but won’t give conservative German a major heart attack. Proper centre left stuff. Plus no 130 km/h Autobahn limit cheer.gif
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Silas
post Aug 21 2021, 09:28 PM
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They don’t call it a super election year for no reason! Scholz hauling the SPD back up. Their key policies are looking good, they’re focusing on real issues like a 12€ Minimum wage. When you strip out the minor parties who won’t clear the threshold that should put an RRG coalition within the possible maths. Returning the former DDR communist party to power would give the Bild an actual heart attack (think what the daily mail sidebar of shame would be like as a stand alone publication and add in the racism of the Courier Mail from QLD and you’re pretty much there)

But RRG in Berlin AND Berlin (Reichstag and Rotes Rathaus ie Federal and State) could be very good
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Steve201
post Aug 22 2021, 12:46 AM
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If Merkel stood again would she win do you think?
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Silas
post Aug 22 2021, 10:21 AM
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Yeah, her approval is still sky high. She’d lead CDU/CSU to be the largest party and then it’s onto the coalition building. The public would be happy with her staying
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Steve201
post Aug 22 2021, 07:39 PM
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Would be a bit wild to have the same leader for 20 years, it’s a big no no in western politics post war I guess!
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Silas
post Aug 22 2021, 07:48 PM
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Thats true everywhere but Germany laugh.gif they’ve had ridiculously few chancellor’s since the fall of the monarchy. f*** i think even hitler doesn’t crack the top 3 for longevity
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Steve201
post Aug 22 2021, 08:14 PM
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Well that is true they always seem to last longer than say Britain which has gotten ridiculous since the 50s!
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Suedehead2
post Aug 22 2021, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Aug 22 2021, 09:14 PM) *
Well that is true they always seem to last longer than say Britain which has gotten ridiculous since the 50s!

That's a little misleading. From May 1979 to June 2016, we had just five PMs.
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Steve201
post Aug 22 2021, 10:32 PM
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You can tell the smooth eras when capitalism isnt in crisis from how many British PMs there are!
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Silas
post Aug 24 2021, 12:38 PM
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Come thru red wave
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Doctor Blind
post Aug 24 2021, 12:56 PM
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Quite a shift from April when the Greens had a commanding lead! Surprised to see such a strong comeback from the SPD given where they were over the past 5 years, although if they've shifted more to the left that might explain it (along with the percieved competence and experience of Scholz).

Oh and..

QUOTE
Armin Laschet dropped in the popularity rankings after pictures showing him laughing at an event for the victims of the floods.
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Silas
post Aug 24 2021, 01:11 PM
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Thats not the only Fauxpas he has made either 😬
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Silas
post Aug 31 2021, 07:51 PM
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We had our first debate on Sunday Night. This sample was taken from after that and Lachets rating has fallen off a cliff. He’s equal now with the FDPs Party head and dear god at this rate more people would prefer an AfD Chancellor, a literal f***ing Nazi, than a CDU* one


*Lachet. Merkel would Boss this poll and a few other CDU folks would be outpolling Lachet in their sleep
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Suedehead2
post Aug 31 2021, 07:56 PM
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I've been reading John Kampfner's book on Germany and it's been very interesting. The chapter on the economy is particularly revealing.
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