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> Album Chart Battle: Drake vs. Iron Maiden, Certified Lover Boy vs. Senjutsu
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Certified Senjutsu Boy
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WhoOdyssey
post Aug 31 2021, 04:02 PM
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Another big album chart battle is upon us! Both Drake and Iron Maiden are releasing their new albums this week 'Certified Lover Boy' and 'Senjutsu' (Sept 3rd), but how will they fair in the race to #1? It will also be the first full week of sales for Kanye West's 'Donda'.

This is how their last releases performed:

Drake - Scorpion (2018): 63,690
Iron Maiden - The Book of Souls (2015): 60,249

Of course Iron Maiden's last release was in a stronger time for album sales, but I think I'm leaning towards them for this as I can't see Drake hitting the highs of his last sales - particularly with the lack of lead single.
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Bré
post Aug 31 2021, 04:08 PM
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It's hard to gauge if Drake will be able to pull off similar numbers to last time when he hasn't led it off with a proper single ('Laugh Now Cry Later' may still technically be the lead single but that was forever ago now) but for what it's worth this album has been hyped for a long time in a similar (though less chaotic) way to 'DONDA' and that has ended up doing extremely well on streaming even without any singles so I think there is still definitely the potential for him to do huge numbers again. I think it's likely both of these albums will have a smaller debut than the previous albums but they are from completely different worlds within the music industry so no idea which one will be dropping more laugh.gif I lean to thinking Drake will pull it off but definitely can see it going either way.
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Sour Candy
post Aug 31 2021, 04:10 PM
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Iron Maiden wins this battle but Drake will be #1 the week after.
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WhoOdyssey
post Aug 31 2021, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(Sour Candy @ Aug 31 2021, 05:10 PM) *
Iron Maiden wins this battle but Drake will be #1 the week after.

Manic Street Preachers are releasing on the week after, I think they may be able to contend with Drake's second week. (and possibly Steps too)
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Bjork
post Aug 31 2021, 04:20 PM
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Iron Maiden sure they can do at least 40K

the thing is even if you do very well on streams like Kanye is doing now, thats 5K a day, no more... so even if doing exceptionally well all week you cannot reach crazy numbers

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dan:G
post Aug 31 2021, 04:20 PM
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I get the feeling it'll be Iron Maiden with them keeping most of their fanbase since 2015 ready to buy albums. Drake will be massive on streaming but I don't see him having half the traditional sales of Scorpion (13,975 sales) which could very well make the difference.
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shindymindy
post Aug 31 2021, 04:24 PM
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I think Iron Maiden will get this.
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Dobbo.
post Aug 31 2021, 04:27 PM
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Drake easily!
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Sour Candy
post Aug 31 2021, 05:08 PM
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QUOTE(WhoOdyssey @ Aug 31 2021, 05:16 PM) *
Manic Street Preachers are releasing on the week after, I think they may be able to contend with Drake's second week. (and possibly Steps too)

Could be.. Manics did 24k last time around and their fanbase is probably one of the most loyal out there.
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chartfridays
post Aug 31 2021, 05:32 PM
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Iron Maiden - metal fans lean physically, and Maiden have a lot of older fans to boot.

It doesn't matter how much streaming Drake gets he's lost this already.
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steve201
post Aug 31 2021, 05:56 PM
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Yup Iron Maiden!
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jimwatts
post Aug 31 2021, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Aug 31 2021, 05:20 PM) *
Iron Maiden sure they can do at least 40K

the thing is even if you do very well on streams like Kanye is doing now, thats 5K a day, no more... so even if doing exceptionally well all week you cannot reach crazy numbers

Exactly this - Dave and Olivia's albums both opened with less than 33k from streams in week 1, and I think Drake may do similar this time. Scorpion opened with 49,715 from streams, but aside from the lack of hit singles this time, I think Spotify has lost some of its share since 2018 to Amazon, where album bombs have less of an impact (songs seem to take longer to break there generally).

Ultimately I can see Drake doing no more than 40k week 1 in total, and Iron Maiden doing a bit more than that.
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___∆___
post Aug 31 2021, 07:33 PM
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Iron Maiden - they have a physical buying fanbase and have plenty of formats (although the price tags are high)

Standard 2CD Digipak
Deluxe 2CD Book Format
Deluxe heavyweight 180G Triple Black Vinyl
Special Edition Triple Silver & Black Marble Vinyl
Special Edition Triple Red & Black Marble Vinyl
Super Deluxe Boxset
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Bré
post Aug 31 2021, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Aug 31 2021, 07:18 PM) *
I think Spotify has lost some of its share since 2018 to Amazon, where album bombs have less of an impact (songs seem to take longer to break there generally).


I don't think market share is a relevant argument here, people who would normally stream a Drake album surely aren't just going to randomly skip this one even if they are among the alleged people who have switched from Spotify to Amazon (or any other service Spotify is supposedly losing market share to). I think any potential drop in the streaming figures from 'Scorpion' will just be from people losing interest in Drake as an artist / him not being as omnipresent as he was in 2018 / him maybe having less aggressive promotion (lest we forget when Spotify infamously had Drake on the cover of literally all of their playlists when 'Scorpion' dropped lol)
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Dot Branning
post Aug 31 2021, 09:05 PM
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Iron Maiden due to physical buying fanbase!
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jimwatts
post Aug 31 2021, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(Bré @ Aug 31 2021, 09:47 PM) *
I don't think market share is a relevant argument here, people who would normally stream a Drake album surely aren't just going to randomly skip this one even if they are among the alleged people who have switched from Spotify to Amazon (or any other service Spotify is supposedly losing market share to). I think any potential drop in the streaming figures from 'Scorpion' will just be from people losing interest in Drake as an artist / him not being as omnipresent as he was in 2018 / him maybe having less aggressive promotion (lest we forget when Spotify infamously had Drake on the cover of literally all of their playlists when 'Scorpion' dropped lol)

My point was a general one about Spotify impact and its translation into album sales, compared to 3 years ago. Based on how much the Olivia and Dave album tracks dominated Spotify on their release weeks, I actually expected them to open with closer than 40k from streaming, or at least more than the 35k which Post Malone got for 'beerbongs & bentleys' in 2018 - it feels like something has gradually changed since then, regardless of the artist. Of course people who are still invested in Drake will be seeking out his new album regardless.
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Bré
post Sep 1 2021, 12:23 AM
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Aug 31 2021, 10:29 PM) *
My point was a general one about Spotify impact and its translation into album sales, compared to 3 years ago. Based on how much the Olivia and Dave album tracks dominated Spotify on their release weeks, I actually expected them to open with closer than 40k from streaming, or at least more than the 35k which Post Malone got for 'beerbongs & bentleys' in 2018 - it feels like something has gradually changed since then, regardless of the artist. Of course people who are still invested in Drake will be seeking out his new album regardless.


I don't think the conversion between pure streaming numbers and album sales has changed at all since streaming was introduced to the albums chart (unless they did apply the change to differently weight ad-funded vs. premium streams? iirc that was only on the singles chart but I may be wrong) so similar numbers from Spotify should still translate to similar album sales.

Was interested enough to crunch some numbers here if y'all will pardon a long post with a lot of numbers - comparing 'beerbongs & bentleys' to 'We're All Alone In This Together', these were the first week Spotify totals for their 3rd through 12th most popular tracks (i.e. the relevant ones for the album streaming sales calculations):

7
Paranoid by Post Malone 2,818,682
9
rockstar (feat. 21 Savage) by Post Malone 2,376,254
13
Spoil My Night (feat. Swae Lee) by Post Malone 2,198,506
15
Rich & Sad by Post Malone 2,121,197
16
Over Now by Post Malone 2,059,479
17
Stay by Post Malone 2,041,215
20
Zack And Codeine by Post Malone 1,938,858
21
Ball For Me (feat. Nicki Minaj) by Post Malone 1,900,306
24
Takin' Shots by Post Malone 1,798,349
25
Same Bitches (feat. G-Eazy & YG) by Post Malone 1,761,590

Total: 21,014,436 (25,217,323 including the top 2 tracks weighted down)

6
In The Fire by Dave 2,821,691
8
System (feat. WizKid) by Dave 2,183,292
11
We're All Alone by Dave 2,081,212
17
Twenty To One by Dave 1,661,292
18
Lazarus (feat. Boj) by Dave 1,641,152
20
Three Rivers by Dave 1,534,367
21
Heart Attack by Dave 1,534,118
23
Law Of Attraction (feat. Snoh Aalegra) by Dave 1,485,572
24
Both Sides Of A Smile (feat. James Blake) by Dave 1,377,074
27
Survivor's Guilt by Dave 1,262,428

Total: 17,582,198 (21,098,638 including the top 2 tracks weighted down)

Based on that it's actually surprising that Dave's first week album streaming sales were as close to Post's as they were if you only look at Spotify, as the total from Spotify after performing the relevant calculation was only 83.7% of what Post got compared to Dave ultimately getting 92.4% of Post's first week album streaming sales - this is presumably explained by the increased userbase of Apple Music especially as that tends to be a big platform for UK rap artists. Unless you want to be a conspiracy theorist and accuse Dave of making up streams etc.

As for 'SOUR', that album actually only had 11 songs which put it at an immediate disadvantage - her adding just one extra track would increase her streaming sales by at least ~9% pretty much for free. But for what it's worth the same calculation for her:

5
drivers license by Olivia Rodrigo 2,654,846
7
traitor by Olivia Rodrigo 2,431,047
8
brutal by Olivia Rodrigo 2,228,584
9
enough for you by Olivia Rodrigo 1,952,019
10
happier by Olivia Rodrigo 1,853,950
11
1 step forward, 3 steps back by Olivia Rodrigo 1,826,943
13
favorite crime by Olivia Rodrigo 1,766,680
14
jealousy, jealousy by Olivia Rodrigo 1,620,539
19
hope ur ok by Olivia Rodrigo 1,432,920

Total: 17,767,528 (21,715,868 including the top 2 tracks weighted down)

So that does track well with Olivia having roughly the same (slightly higher) first week album streaming sales as Dave, with a much more comparable non-Spotify market in that comparison than the Dave vs. Post one of course.

This was the benchmark set by 'Scorpion' for further comparison (so if - big if - 'Certified Lover Boy' does close to this well then it should have a similarly high first week album streaming sales total):

3
Nice For What by Drake 3,486,946
7
Emotionless by Drake 2,817,799
8
In My Feelings by Drake 2,766,105
9
God's Plan by Drake 2,759,201
10
I'm Upset by Drake 2,468,372
11
Survival by Drake 2,461,591
13
8 Out Of 10 by Drake 2,424,372
14
Elevate by Drake 2,404,860
17
Mob Ties by Drake 2,292,222
20
Can’t Take A Joke by Drake 2,034,821

Total: 25,916,289 (31,099,547 including the top 2 tracks weighted down)

Interestingly there, the Spotify numbers for 'Scorpion' were 23.3% higher than those for 'beerbongs & bentleys', but in the end Drake's first week streaming sales total was 41.1% higher than Post's - those two albums were in the same year so I'd expect them to be closer but again it may just be explained by Drake doing a lot better on Apple Music / other platforms than Post did (perhaps 'beerbongs & bentleys' just relatively underperformed outside of Spotify in general given it also appears to have underperformed relative to Dave and Olivia when just looking at Spotify numbers).

The implied Spotify market share, incidentally, based on each album (dividing the Spotify totals by 1,000 and comparing those to the final first week album streaming sales):

Post Malone: 71.6%
Dave: 64.8%
Olivia Rodrigo: 64.7%
Drake: 62.6%

So Post Malone definitely seems to have had a higher proportion of his streams coming from Spotify than the other 3, but aside from that it appears that, anecdotally, Spotify's market share at least when it comes to album bombs is roughly the same if not very slightly higher than it was in 2018. That is unless Drake is the outlier rather than Post. Would need to check more albums to have more evidence but I cba at this moment xx
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jimwatts
post Sep 1 2021, 06:40 AM
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Thanks for crunching those numbers Bré. I wouldn't argue that Spotify's share when it comes to album bombs has drastically changed. However if you compare the weekly Spotify streams of the #19 or #20 for the week of those two 2018 albums:

20
Zack And Codeine by Post Malone 1,938,858
20
Can’t Take A Joke by Drake 2,034,821

with the two from earlier this year:

19
hope ur ok by Olivia Rodrigo 1,432,920
20
Three Rivers by Dave 1,534,367

that basically illustrates my original point, that landing your entire album in the Top 20 on Spotify doesn't carry as many streams as it used to.
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Bré
post Sep 1 2021, 11:23 AM
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Fair point but I don't think that necessarily means that Drake won't be able to do similar numbers again - I guess if anything it just means that if he does he will just appear to be even more dominant than last time laugh.gif (also look out for how Ed does later in the year, 'No.6 Collaborations Project' had a similar first week streaming total to 'Scorpion' and I would expect '=' to do even better, of course '÷' currently remains pretty much in a league of its own with its first week figures).
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Feel_The_Fever
post Sep 1 2021, 02:45 PM
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Iron Maiden.
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Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 28th September 2021 - 08:32 PM