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 How many seats will the Parties get in the 4/7/24 election?, Prediction thread |
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 6th June 2024, 06:05 PM
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#21
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,271 User: 7,561 
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ 25th May 2024, 12:18 PM)  I think had Nigel Farage stood in somewhere like Clacton they may have picked up a seat - but that's not happening now. I should have kept my mouth shut, sorry everyone. 😔 Although latest poll from Redfield and Wilton could place the Tories on just 40 seats... |
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6th June 2024, 06:13 PM
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#22
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Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,675 User: 5,567
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^ oh wow that tory result feels far too good to be true but I'll take it!
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6th June 2024, 06:17 PM
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#23
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 45,237 User: 18,639
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Wonder if Laura K will make big lonf reports about Tory decimation and talk to them about postage votes pre election day. Somehow I doubt it.
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10th June 2024, 08:25 PM
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#24
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 BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 951 User: 175,892
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I'm going to plump for Reform winning some seats through 3/4 way splits where the high 20s is enough to be first past the post.
Labour - 500 Lib Dems - 60 Conservatives - 40 SNP - 20 Reform - 10 Plaid - 2 NI - 18 |
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27th June 2024, 02:48 PM
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#25
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 6 December 2023
Posts: 1,776 User: 173,568
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Now I understand this stuff a bit more this is my new prediction
Plaid - 3 Lib Dems - 52 Reform - 5 SNP - 28 Conservatives - 95 Labour - 446 Green - 2 This post has been edited by Liam sota: 27th June 2024, 03:02 PM |
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3rd July 2024, 06:27 PM
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#26
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 951 User: 175,892
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Final Prediction - lets see how this goes.
Labour - 450 Conservatives - 100 Liberal Democrats - 54 SNP - 20 Plaid Cymru - 4 Green - 2 Reform - 1 Speaker - 1 N.I - 18 |
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4th July 2024, 07:20 AM
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#27
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Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,675 User: 5,567
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Final prediction:
Labour - 426 Conservatives - 147 Lib Dems - 55 SNP - 9 Reform - 4 Green - 4 Others - 7 |
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4th July 2024, 07:23 AM
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#28
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 45,237 User: 18,639
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Labour: 500
Cons: 87 Lib Dems: 72 Reform: 15 Green: 5 SNP: 15 Others |
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4th July 2024, 04:08 PM
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#29
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 3 February 2011 Posts: 37,855 User: 12,929              |
QUOTE(Iz �� @ 25th May 2024, 11:33 AM) My current prediction that I put into YAPMS about a month or so, online tool for visualising political maps - bit fiddly for doing the whole 600 seat thing as the website was designed with US state predictions where you 'only' have to click 50 things to make your prediction. Obviously I went a little general with some of the areas of the country I'm less familiar with and it's based a little on vibes with the minor parties so I'm not predicting specific seat results from the map in the above link, more filling in areas with parties I expect to get seats in around that area, but it's a decent estimation for the start of the campaign, I'll rejig it for a full thing later on once I get more of an idea and poke around some constitutencies in detail. Labour 430 Conservatives 115 Lib Dems 56 SNP 19 Reform 5 Green 2 Plaid 4 SF 8 DUP 7 Alliance 2 SDLP 1 Possibly a little high on LDs and Reform but I am expecting even nominally safe seats for the Conservatives to become fights with their nearest challengers which could lead to a few unexpected victories here and there. Gonna update this with a final prediction of: Labour 451 Conservatives 77 Lib Dems 77 SNP 17 Green 3 Reform 2 Plaid 4 SF 8 DUP 5 Alliance 2 SDLP 2 UUP 1 Speaker 1 Jeremy Corbyn 1 (had to!) Edged back on Reform seats and up on Greens, went a bit more bullish with LDs and Labour with my prediction that lots of Conservative voters just won't turn out in places to get them over the line. That it ended up on the banter number of both LDs and Cons on the same seats is a happy coincidence. argue over my constituency choices here: https://yapms.com/app?m=5tf4e7tonlo3j0o - I balanced this against previous seat data, what Electoral Calculus says for some seats and consulted ElectionMaps' Nowcast (and in parts of the country I'm less familiar with, just followed their choice). |
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4th July 2024, 07:24 PM
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#30
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 45,237 User: 18,639
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I wanna update back to my originsl Tory number and say Tories on 78
Lab: 440 -500 Lib Dems: 71 Tories: 78 Reform: 15 SNP: 15 Green: 3-5 Just my feeling. I think Corbyn will miss our unfortunately, as will the culture Labour sec  |
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5th July 2024, 08:54 AM
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#31
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 6 December 2023
Posts: 1,776 User: 173,568
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QUOTE(Scene @ 4th July 2024, 08:20 AM) Final prediction: Labour - 426 Conservatives - 147 Lib Dems - 55 SNP - 9 Reform - 4 Green - 4 Others - 7 👀you were the closest I think |
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5th July 2024, 01:09 PM
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#32
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,332 User: 5,138
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Seen that earlier great prediction Curtice 🤣
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5th July 2024, 03:11 PM
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#33
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Resident Pink Pony
Joined: 9 March 2008
Posts: 15,675 User: 5,567
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QUOTE(Liam sota @ 5th July 2024, 09:54 AM) 👀you were the closest I think Shocked I got SNP, Green and Reform bang on.  Underestimated LD quite a bit though.
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5th July 2024, 04:17 PM
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#34
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 3 February 2011 Posts: 37,855 User: 12,929 |
Should have stuck with my first prediction, that was bang on with Reform actually.
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5th July 2024, 08:18 PM
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#35
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 47,332 User: 5,138
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I did well enough with the tories/Labour but not with the Lib Dem surge and snp collapse!
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