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vidsanta
This is just informational - make of it what you will :

https://www.aldc.org/category/by-election-results/

There's an archive of them here : http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/
Suedehead2
I'd been thinking about starting a thread for these, but there's been nothing particularly noteworthy so far this year. The Lib Dems will probably be reasonably happy with the IOW result. The parliamentary seat was a very tight Tory - Lib Dem marginal for years, but the Lib Dems were a long way behind even before the coalition years. Therefore, getting over a quarter of the vote in a ward where they haven't put up a candidate for a decade or so - and in a heavy Leave-voting area - has to count as a reasonable result.
Suedehead2
http://britainelects.com has fairly comprehensive previews of each week's by-elections.
Suedehead2
The Lib Dems have come from a very distant fourth to win a seat in Sunderland. They got just 91 votes (under 5%) in May 2016, but got over half the vote this time in a five-way contest.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 1 2018, 11:51 PM) *
The Lib Dems have come from a very distant fourth to win a seat in Sunderland. They got just 91 votes (under 5%) in May 2016, but got over half the vote this time in a five-way contest.


I'm always amazed at how volatile local election results can be - I suspect there were specific factors in the above turnaround, though.
Suedehead2
In yesterday's other contest, Labour comfortably held a seat in Falmouth.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Feb 2 2018, 06:27 AM) *
I'm always amazed at how volatile local election results can be - I suspect there were specific factors in the above turnaround, though.

There is normally something specific to explain extreme turnarounds such as this, but I haven't found any explanation for this yet. The Lib Dems had never done well in the ward before. Their previous best result was a distant second in 2006. The previous Labour councillor (who happened to be Lauren Laverne's uncle) died, so the reason for the by-election doesn't provide an explanation either. The Lib Dems had an equally unexpected win in an other Sunderland seat in January last year
Suedehead2
Nothing particularly remarkable in this week's contests. The Tories gained a seat from an independent in Weymouth. There was no independent candidate this time and the Tories won by just eight votes over Labour.

One of the contests was in Staffordshire where the Tory resigned having only won the seat in a by-election in September The Tories still managed to win. They also successfully defended a seat where they had won unopposed since at least 1999.

UKIP only contested one seat and saw their vote almost disappear. The Greens had a couple half-decent results against the general trend. The Lib Dems had no realistic hopes of winning any of the contests and duly didn't come close anywhere.
Popchartfreak
candidates can affect local result, if I can state the obvious. A young independent had a narrow win in the Bournemouth ward where the previous long-serving candidate had retired to live in Spain (who can blame her) as he had her full support and she was well-regarded. That leaves 2 independents, one green and a swarm of Tories running the Council ahead of their forthcoming mass deletion on joining with Tory Poole and Tory Christchurch (assuming Javid gives the order against local opinion on the grounds that Christchurch isnt big enough to go it alone and Dorset CC doesnt want them - who would, the elderly care bill is enormous?!).

Oh yes, and by the by, huge swarms of experienced Council staff are also getting the early nod to abandon ship (and not be replaced). This will be the final swathe of local Council cutbacks ever as there is nothing left to cut short of ceasing even more Council functions than have already gone. Public toilets outside the Town centre and Seafront? Thing of the past, that's taking the piss literally....
vidsanta
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Feb 10 2018, 09:57 AM) *
Oh yes, and by the by, huge swarms of experienced Council staff are also getting the early nod to abandon ship (and not be replaced). This will be the final swathe of local Council cutbacks ever as there is nothing left to cut short of ceasing even more Council functions than have already gone. Public toilets outside the Town centre and Seafront? Thing of the past, that's taking the piss literally....


I guess they expect people to just piss straight into the sea? tongue.gif
Suedehead2
There were 14 local by-elections yesterday; the Tories were defending seven, Labour four, UKIP, SNP and Residents Association one each.

The Tories won the UKIP seat on Tendring council (basically Clacton, Essex) with UKIP finishing sixth. Independents came second and third in that contest. UKIP won 22 seats at the last election, just one behind the Tories. However, following a lot of defections, they now have only eight.

In a seat in Cameron's old seat of Witney the Tories were defending a seat they had won comfortably in every election this century with the exception of 2007 when the Lib Dems won by one vote. The Tories won that seat comfortably with the Lib Dems regaining second place.

In North Norfolk the Lib Dems won back a seat they lost to the Tories in 2015, It had previously been Lib Dem since at least 2003, but generally by fairly small majorities.The Lib Dems won easily yesterday with over 70% of the vote in a three-way contest.

There were two contests in Teignbridge in Devon with the Tories defending both of them. One of the seats had generally elected independent candidates until the Tories started winning it. Labour won it once (in 1995) and the Lib Dems won a by-election there in December 2016 having finished last in the previous full elections. The Lib Dems won again yesterday with a small majority. In the other seat, a Tory / Lib Dem marginal for some time, the Lib Dems got over 70% of the vote in a straight fight against the Tories. The Tory majority on the council is now down to four.

The defending party won all the other contests with the Lib Dems seeing a big increase in their vote in a couple of them.

Doctor Blind
Conservatives were contesting in five by-elections today.

They lost every single one!! biggrin.gif


Lib Dems absolutely smashed it in Northchurch too...

LDEM: 59.2% (+40.4)
CON: 28.2% (-32.1)
LAB: 10.5% (-1.7)
GRN: 2.1% (-6.6)

LDem GAIN from Con.
Suedehead2
Do you know why there was such a massive swing?

The Tories gained two seats from the Lib Dems in Dorset two weeks ago, Both by-elections were due to the resignation of the same councillor. She clearly had a large personal vote as she had easily outpolled fellow Lib Dems in the same seats. In the same week the lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories. There were no particularly remarkable results last week.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 9 2018, 12:15 AM) *
Conservatives were contesting in five by-elections today.

They lost every single one!! biggrin.gif


Actually, they were contesting 8.
Doctor Blind
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 9 2018, 03:43 PM) *
Actually, they were contesting 8.


Yes, sorry - I should have said 'defending'.
Suedehead2
Two moderately interesting results yesterday plus a very boring one.

First, the dull one. In Bury (the one in Greater Manchester) Labour comfortably held a seat they have won fairly easily for several years. Of more interest, the Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories in Harrogate. Despite there being no UKIP candidate this time, Labour and the Tories both lost vote share. This was in a constituency that voted 58% Leave (although, obviously, I have no data for this particular ward).

Finally, there was a by-election in Wales which was easily won (from Labour) by an independent who used to be a Labour councillor. I'm sure the fact that the Labour candidate was from Surrey didn't exactly help in Port Talbot. Anyway, the biggest laugh is reserved for the Tory candidate who got four votes.
Popchartfreak
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 17 2018, 06:45 PM) *
Two moderately interesting results yesterday plus a very boring one.

First, the dull one. In Bury (the one in Greater Manchester) Labour comfortably held a seat they have won fairly easily for several years. Of more interest, the Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories in Harrogate. Despite there being no UKIP candidate this time, Labour and the Tories both lost vote share. This was in a constituency that voted 58% Leave (although, obviously, I have no data for this particular ward).

Finally, there was a by-election in Wales which was easily won (from Labour) by an independent who used to be a Labour councillor. I'm sure the fact that the Labour candidate was from Surrey didn't exactly help in Port Talbot. Anyway, the biggest laugh is reserved for the Tory candidate who got four votes.


was that a Tory Port Talbot improvement? laugh.gif That should mean his family voted for him or her at least... tongue.gif
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Aug 17 2018, 08:47 PM) *
was that a Tory Port Talbot improvement? laugh.gif That should mean his family voted for him or her at least... tongue.gif

Technically, yes. There wasn't a Tory candidate last time laugh.gif I have seen a suggestion that there were five members of the candidate's family (including herself) in the ward but that is unconfirmed. It still means that at least six people signed her nomination form but did not vote for her.
Popchartfreak
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 17 2018, 09:26 PM) *
Technically, yes. There wasn't a Tory candidate last time laugh.gif I have seen a suggestion that there were five members of the candidate's family (including herself) in the ward but that is unconfirmed. It still means that at least six people signed her nomination form but did not vote for her.


when even your friends wont vote for you.....! Ouch!

(I mean I would give a personal vote to a friend who I respected to do a good job even if I have differences over politics.)
Suedehead2
There are ten contests today. Many of them are in safe Labour or Tory seats but there are a couple clos Tory / Lib Dem contests and a potentially close Tory / Labour one.
Doctor Blind
There's no doubt that the Liberal Democrats are staging a bit of a comeback at the locals in 2018.

Yesterday they gained Three Rivers Rural in Hertfordshire from the Conservatives with 53% (+10) of the votes, and came within 2 pc of taking Bosmere Ward in Suffolk.

QUOTE
In 2018, there have been 208 council by-elections (for 213 seats). Here are the results:

CON: 91 (-14) , 35.7% (-1.5)
LAB: 58 (-1) , 28.5% (+3.3)
LDM: 33 (+20) , 17.9% (+7.2)
December Dong
A rural Hertfordshire seat?!

It's because they are the party of remain. Corbyn should take note.
Suedehead2
Three Rivers used to be an area where the Lib Dems were pretty strong, so this result represents something of a return to form there.
vidsanta
QUOTE(¡Michael Myers! @ Oct 26 2018, 05:06 PM) *
A rural Hertfordshire seat?!

It's because they are the party of remain. Corbyn should take note.


Somehow I don't think Labour would stand a snowball in hell's chance in rural Hertfordshire... tongue.gif
vidsanta
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 26 2018, 04:11 PM) *
Three Rivers used to be an area where the Lib Dems were pretty strong, so this result represents something of a return to form there.


The full result...

Hertfordshire CC, Three Rivers Rural
LD 1846 [53.4%; +9.5%]
Con 1315 [38.0%; -9.0%]
Lab 144 [4.2%; -0.1%]
UKIP 86 [2.5%; +0.6%]
Green 68 [2.0%; -1.1%]
Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Percentage changes from 2017
Turnout 29.7%
December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 27 2018, 05:44 AM) *
Somehow I don't think Labour would stand a snowball in hell's chance in rural Hertfordshire... tongue.gif


Perhaps you're right kink.gif
Suedehead2
I think Lancaster Gate ward n Westminster Council may have made a late bid to have the most boring local by-election result of the year.

CON: 47.2% (-0.4)
LAB: 35.4% (-0.5)
LDEM: 14.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 3.2% (+3.2)

The only result of note on Thursday was in Enfield where there was a big swing from Labour to the Tories. It means the ward regains its status as a safe Tory seat which it had been up to, and including, 2010. In May's constituency of Maidenhead, a candidate standing for the National Flood Prevention Party came second.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Nov 24 2018, 03:41 PM) *
I think Lancaster Gate ward n Westminster Council may have made a late bid to have the most boring local by-election result of the year.

CON: 47.2% (-0.4)
LAB: 35.4% (-0.5)
LDEM: 14.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 3.2% (+3.2)

The only result of note on Thursday was in Enfield where there was a big swing from Labour to the Tories. It means the ward regains its status as a safe Tory seat which it had been up to, and including, 2010. In May's constituency of Maidenhead, a candidate standing for the National Flood Prevention Party came second.


Wolvercote ward in Oxford has put in an even later bid for the "most boring result" title.

LDEM: 60.5% (-0.5)
CON: 24.5% (+1.0)
LAB: 9.8% (-0.1)
GRN: 5.2% (-0.5)

There was also a by-election in Scotland in a ward that is larger than Luxembourg and Malta laugh.gif That ward saw the SNP gain a seat from the Lib Dems. That was largely down to the use of AV in by-elections where STV is used in full elections. The Lib Dems won the last of the seats allocated and, therefore, started from a weak position in an AV vote That has led to a discussion on Twitter on whether there is a better way for filling vacancies in such circumstances.

Elsewhere, the Tories lost a seat to an independent candidate in a normally rock-solid Tory ward on Surrey CC and Labour held a seat in Leicester with over 5/6ths of the vote.
December Dong
We need to get rid of these rotten boroughs and assign seats by overall popular vote.
Brett-Butler
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 8 2018, 04:28 PM) *
There was also a by-election in Scotland in a ward that is larger than Luxembourg and Malta laugh.gif That ward saw the SNP gain a seat from the Lib Dems. That was largely down to the use of AV in by-elections where STV is used in full elections. The Lib Dems won the last of the seats allocated and, therefore, started from a weak position in an AV vote That has led to a discussion on Twitter on whether there is a better way for filling vacancies in such circumstances.


In the NI Assembly (during the occasion under a blue moon where it's actually sitting), when a member steps down, their position is co-opted from a list that is drawn up by their predecessor, which is in almost all cases someone from the same political party. It does mean that someone from a similar political persuasion to the person who has left the position will fill the role, but then of course it means that your representative for the rest of the Assembly's term is not someone who has been elected by the people. It's not a perfect solution, but it does seem a better way of doing things than the AV you've mentioned, as if there are several by-elections that don't overlap, there could be a situation where the representatives in the council are not actually representative after all, and could end up being from the same party.
ChristmaSteve201
Always thought this was dodgy too though as the party internally can fix who they want wherever they want them especially with certain political parties in NI!
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 9 2018, 12:55 AM) *
Always thought this was dodgy too though as the party internally can fix who they want wherever they want them especially with certain political parties in NI!

That's an interesting point. There would be a risk that a party might persuade an awkward representative to resign so that they can be replaced with someone more compliant. Perhaps there is a case for having different rules depending on the reason for the vacancy. A vacancy caused by a death or resignation through ill-health (subject to safeguards in the latter case) could be filled by nomination, but a vacancy caused by a resignation for other reasons would trigger a by-election.
Harve
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 8 2018, 04:42 PM) *
We need to get rid of these rotten boroughs and assign seats by overall popular vote.

What does this even mean
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 9 2018, 06:21 PM) *
What does this even mean

Your guess is as good as mine laugh.gif
ChristmaSteve201
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 9 2018, 04:29 PM) *
That's an interesting point. There would be a risk that a party might persuade an awkward representative to resign so that they can be replaced with someone more compliant. Perhaps there is a case for having different rules depending on the reason for the vacancy. A vacancy caused by a death or resignation through ill-health (subject to safeguards in the latter case) could be filled by nomination, but a vacancy caused by a resignation for other reasons would trigger a by-election.


Exactly seen this happen before!
December Dong
QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 9 2018, 06:21 PM) *
What does this even mean


Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!
vidsanta
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 9 2018, 11:52 PM) *
Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!


But that would eliminate the crucial local link - how would you like your MP to be someone from hundreds of miles away who couldn't give s sh1t about your constituency's problems?

Also, we'd then have permanent coalition gov't because no party would ever get 50% of the popular vote.
Popchartfreak
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 9 2018, 11:52 PM) *
Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!


That would just cause resentment amongst voters. people in a safe Labour area would be pissed off at having Tories represent them, and people in safe Tory seats pissed off at having Labour - though the advantage would be Libdems having more seats, the disadvantage would be no Libdem councils ever even when they have local strongholds.

Just wouldn't work.
5 Silas Frøkner
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 10 2018, 01:52 AM) *
Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!

Having a local representative is a key tenant of an effective parliamentary democracy

QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 10 2018, 08:19 AM) *
Also, we'd then have permanent coalition gov't because no party would ever get 50% of the popular vote.

Not a problem for the entire rest of Europe. And let’s be real, ignoring the SNP getting 50.3% in Scotland in 2015 GE, when was the last time anyone got close to 50% nationally? Weren’t not a 2 party system and we will never return to being one. The days of a 50% vote and a win are over
December Dong
Well no. Places with a high Labour vote would get Labour MPs. One with similar votes would get one of each etc. Easy fix and stops results like in 2010 where Labour got an almost identical vote spli5 to the Tories but 100 fewer seats. That is not democracy.
5 Silas Frøkner
You don’t fix that by removing constituencies though. You do multimember wards or you have regional lists like you do for the devolved Parliaments that counteract the constituency vote to make the overall result proportional
Suedehead2
QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 10 2018, 10:04 PM) *
Having a local representative is a key tenant of an effective parliamentary democracy
Not a problem for the entire rest of Europe. And let’s be real, ignoring the SNP getting 50.3% in Scotland in 2015 GE, when was the last time anyone got close to 50% nationally? Weren’t not a 2 party system and we will never return to being one. The days of a 50% vote and a win are over

The closest any party has got to 50% of the vote in a UK general election post-1945 was by Labour in 1951. Despite winning fewer votes than Labour, the Tories won a majority in that election.
Brett-Butler
Once again, Westminister could look to the system used in the NI Assembly (and also in the Dail), where the electorate is split into regions, in which 5 people are elected into the Assembly using the single-transferable vote method of PR. It means that you're likely to have at least 1 representative that you can feel comfortable having as your conduit for the area, and it means you can strike the right balance between voting for a party and voting for the individual - there have been a few cases where a particularly unpopular member of a party has lost their seat whilst the other members of the same party still get seats in the same constituency.

I'd love to see it rolled out across the UK in Westminster, with 3 representatives in 200 constituencies of approximately the same size. It would mean, for example, Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott & Emily Thornberry would be competing in the same constituency, meaning there would be a strong chance of at least one of them losing a seat. Just imagine the scores of Portillo moments that would happen in the first election after it being introduced.
December Dong
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 10 2018, 10:30 PM) *
Once again, Westminister could look to the system used in the NI Assembly (and also in the Dail), where the electorate is split into regions, in which 5 people are elected into the Assembly using the single-transferable vote method of PR. It means that you're likely to have at least 1 representative that you can feel comfortable having as your conduit for the area, and it means you can strike the right balance between voting for a party and voting for the individual - there have been a few cases where a particularly unpopular member of a party has lost their seat whilst the other members of the same party still get seats in the same constituency.

I'd love to see it rolled out across the UK in Westminster, with 3 representatives in 200 constituencies of approximately the same size. It would mean, for example, Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott & Emily Thornberry would be competing in the same constituency, meaning there would be a strong chance of at least one of them losing a seat. Just imagine the scores of Portillo moments that would happen in the first election after it being introduced.


How big would parliament be? And would that stop major discrepancies between Tory vote numbers and their total of seats?
Brett-Butler
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 10 2018, 11:31 PM) *
How big would parliament be? And would that stop major discrepancies between Tory vote numbers and their total of seats?


Parliament would still be 600 people (as it is due to be in the next parliament), each constituency would be bigger to allow for more representatives per constituency whilst still having the same number of representatives. And % of seats would be more likely to be in line with % of 1st preference votes, but there could still be scope for a difference in this depending on how the 2nd preference votes fall.
December Dong
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 10 2018, 10:36 PM) *
Parliament would still be 600 people (as it is due to be in the next parliament), each constituency would be bigger to allow for more representatives per constituency whilst still having the same number of representatives. And % of seats would be more likely to be in line with % of 1st preference votes, but there could still be scope for a difference in this depending on how the 2nd preference votes fall.


That actually sounds like a decent system!
Suedehead2
Three people per constituency is not enough. It would still be very difficult for parties such as the Greens to win anything. There should be around five members per constituency. For as long as most power is concentrated in Westminster, the total number of MPs should remain at its current level (give or take a few), but that is a separate issue.
Brett-Butler
I'd used three as an example because those three household name MPs have constituencies right beside each other to illustrate how it would affect parliament if it came into force (plus it is divisible into 600, although then again so it 4, 5 & 6 now that I think about it). The NI Assembly had 6 representatives per constituency up until the last election, when it became 5, and this was enough to allow smaller parties like the Greens and People Before Profit to get a seat.
vidsanta
QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 10 2018, 10:04 PM) *
Not a problem for the entire rest of Europe. And let’s be real, ignoring the SNP getting 50.3% in Scotland in 2015 GE, when was the last time anyone got close to 50% nationally? Weren’t not a 2 party system and we will never return to being one. The days of a 50% vote and a win are over


I'm actually agreeing with you here - I was just pointing out the consequences to Michael, who apparently has not thought this through. unsure.gif
vidsanta
QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 9 2018, 11:52 PM) *
Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!


YOu say you want to avoid gerrymandering, but you suggest a system specifically designed to stop one specific party winning - can you not see the inconsistency there?

QUOTE(Lapland Labia @ Dec 10 2018, 10:06 PM) *
Well no. Places with a high Labour vote would get Labour MPs. One with similar votes would get one of each etc. Easy fix and stops results like in 2010 where Labour got an almost identical vote spli5 to the Tories but 100 fewer seats. That is not democracy.


How exactly, when you've suggested above that the country should be considered one entity for voting purposes? wacko.gif

QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 10 2018, 11:04 PM) *
Three people per constituency is not enough. It would still be very difficult for parties such as the Greens to win anything. There should be around five members per constituency. For as long as most power is concentrated in Westminster, the total number of MPs should remain at its current level (give or take a few), but that is a separate issue.


I favour county-sized units - generally 5-7 MP's, elected by STV.
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