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vidsanta
I hope Brett-Butler doesn't mind me opening a new thread for this for 2019? unsure.gif

**********************************************************************

The *real* reason the EU is so desperate to keep us in? rolleyes.gif

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-65...eal-Brexit.html

Europeans will have to fork out billions more to fund the EU Budget if there is a No Deal Brexit and Britain does not pay £39billion divorce bill, the bloc's finance chief warns

Gunther Oettinger said remaining member states will face extra big EU bills
The EU's Budget Commissioner said in Germany this could be 500,000 euros
Brexiteers have urged PM not to pay the £39bn divorce bill until trade deal done
5 Silas Frøkner
I’m not sure how Germany, one of the worlds largest economies, will be able to find €0,5m. That’s such a substantial sum of money. Merkel must be locked in a war bunker somewhere with the finance ministry working out where to find such a substantial quantity of money drama.gif
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 2 2019, 10:18 AM) *
I hope Brett-Butler doesn't mind me opening a new thread for this for 2019? unsure.gif

**********************************************************************

The *real* reason the EU is so desperate to keep us in? rolleyes.gif

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-65...eal-Brexit.html

Europeans will have to fork out billions more to fund the EU Budget if there is a No Deal Brexit and Britain does not pay £39billion divorce bill, the bloc's finance chief warns

Gunther Oettinger said remaining member states will face extra big EU bills
The EU's Budget Commissioner said in Germany this could be 500,000 euros
Brexiteers have urged PM not to pay the £39bn divorce bill until trade deal done


Errr they'll get in back in huge taxes on stuff we export if there's no deal.

If we refuse to honour our debts, there will be no more cheap credit for the country as a bad risk. Given we borrow shotloads each year that would be a case of own-goal.

If the EU does have to cover the 39b proportionately it would work out about the same as the amounts spent on hair care products in a couple of years, so yes, that'll break the EU and make them do exactly what we want them to do, as promised by Brexiteers for the last 3 years.

Brexiteers havent urged anything re payments on the deal agreed, it's in the agreement what and when will happen - and if there's no agreement then it's a pointless statement. duhhhhhh! Must be Grayling, Davies, Johnson or Rees-Mogg, I'd hazard a guess, those intellectual giants of our age, men with the ability to see data and instantly read into it whatever they want to see. A bit like looking into the fire in Games Of Thrones using the blood of a Royal enemy, to see into the future, and demolish your enemies using dark forces. Except that Game Of Thrones is a bit less fantastical.

vidsanta
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Jan 2 2019, 12:59 PM) *
Errr they'll get in back in huge taxes on stuff we export if there's no deal.

If we refuse to honour our debts, there will be no more cheap credit for the country as a bad risk. Given we borrow shotloads each year that would be a case of own-goal.


!. No they won't, because we will respond with tariffs ourselves.

2. Before they can claim debts, they have to prove that we owe them - and that has been a problem in a lot of cases, hence the disputed figure...
December Dong
Uk: 60 million
EU: 500 million

Ummm which has the power, which has the power, which heahfjdh powhajah...

That utterly useless Etonian Tory toff who didn't know he country is an island has seemingly now forgotten we have no empirw/ are a small island of 60 million/ with a heavily declining economy. He wants to build a network of military bases around the world, using Brexit as an excuse laugh.gif

A few things:

1. With what money? I assume they want this rather than an NHS?
2. With what equipment? How much will these extra ships and planes cost?
3. WHY? Just ... WHY? There is no empire.
4. Manned how exactly? Tories decimated military spending and cut the numbers to the lowest levels EVER. We have a force of 70k - basically a single Russian vanguard. How will these bases be manned? Conscription of the poor?

Braindead Eton toff living in the 1930s. How quaint.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 2 2019, 03:15 PM) *
!. No they won't, because we will respond with tariffs ourselves.

2. Before they can claim debts, they have to prove that we owe them - and that has been a problem in a lot of cases, hence the disputed figure...

If, as so many Quitters seem to want, we revert to WTO rules (rules that are so fantastic that not a single country thinks it is a good idea to rely on them), that means hefty tariffs. They are the rules. Rules, of course, imposed by a group of foreigners with not a single elected representative.
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 2 2019, 03:15 PM) *
!. No they won't, because we will respond with tariffs ourselves.

2. Before they can claim debts, they have to prove that we owe them - and that has been a problem in a lot of cases, hence the disputed figure...


1. see Suedey reply

2. Not disputed. Agreed. Brexiteers did the agreeing, before doing a runner one by one from the deals they agreed.
Doctor Blind
QUOTE
DUP met with Tory Chief Whip today for the 2nd time in 2 weeks. Tories are promising a legally binding addendum to the Withdrawal Agreement that would allow UK exit from the backstop if it ceases, in effect, to be temporary. DUP (several with legal backgrounds) would accept this.


It looks like the deal may get through after all..
vidsanta
On a separate note, despite what many of you may think, I would prefer a deal, to no deal - just not the deal currently on the table, which IMO makes too many compromises on issues that led me to vote for Brexit in the first place.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 3 2019, 06:49 AM) *
On a separate note, despite what many of you may think, I would prefer a deal, to no deal - just not the deal currently on the table, which IMO makes too many compromises on issues that led me to vote for Brexit in the first place.

What did you expect? On the one side we have a bloc representing over 400 million people, including three of the biggest economies in the world. On the other side, we have a single country of 60+ million people. Did you really believe the lies that we would hold all the cards?
vidsanta
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 3 2019, 10:17 AM) *
What did you expect? On the one side we have a bloc representing over 400 million people, including three of the biggest economies in the world. On the other side, we have a single country of 60+ million people. Did you really believe the lies that we would hold all the cards?


No.
December Dong
Mad May wants to delay the vote AGAIN. Probably by another month. She knows she goes he day after it, so she wants a no Brexit instead just to keep her grubby little fingers in power. Disgusting. This is NOT democracy! She has a deal. No matter how bad it is, it is there in parliament. Time for parliament to vote on it!
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 3 2019, 04:32 PM) *
Mad May wants to delay the vote AGAIN. Probably by another month. She knows she goes he day after it


How do you figure *that*, given she has already won a no-confidence vote in her, and therefore can't face another challenge to her position for a year? unsure.gif


December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 4 2019, 06:34 AM) *
How do you figure *that*, given she has already won a no-confidence vote in her, and therefore can't face another challenge to her position for a year? unsure.gif


*can't face one from the Tories. Opposition still has TWO. Instant VONC in her the day after, she goes, or instant VONC in the govt, it collapses. Tories are terrified as their media wide Nazi campaign against Corbyn is not working. They are rushing to Downing Street events to 'savour it' while it lasts xD My god they are obsessed with power.

But on no. If she is sooo secure ... why not call the vote?
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 4 2019, 07:03 AM) *
*can't face one from the Tories. Opposition still has TWO. Instant VONC in her the day after, she goes, or instant VONC in the govt, it collapses.


Merely *calling* a no-confidence vote will not have those effects - and there is the little matter of the opposition having to actually *win* it - and they simply don't have the numbers to do so.
December Dong
Oh reaaaaally Mr Tory?

33% of the Tories voted against her. See her slink away when Labour called it? See her REFUSE TO TABLE IT LIKE A DICTATORSHIP? Labour has an opposition day the day after the vote is meant to take place where it can table what it wants. Those same Tory mps HAVE TO VOTE AGAINST MAD MAY OR RAISE EXTREEEMELY UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS ABOUT PUTTING PARTY OVER COUNTRY. If Dickensian Smogg etc think she is good enough for the country but not the party, they actively show disdain for the people.

When the deal fails, so does the government. It collapses.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 4 2019, 02:28 PM) *
Oh reaaaaally Mr Tory?

33% of the Tories voted against her. See her slink away when Labour called it? See her REFUSE TO TABLE IT LIKE A DICTATORSHIP? Labour has an opposition day the day after the vote is meant to take place where it can table what it wants. Those same Tory mps HAVE TO VOTE AGAINST MAD MAY OR RAISE EXTREEEMELY UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS ABOUT PUTTING PARTY OVER COUNTRY. If Dickensian Smogg etc think she is good enough for the country but not the party, they actively show disdain for the people.

When the deal fails, so does the government. It collapses.


Wrong! The gov't is not *all* about Brexit.

You accuse me of wanting Brexit at all costs, and to hell with the consequences - can't you see this is exactly what you are advocating iro removing the Tory government?
Jester
I’m curious (although despairing) to have a sensible view here from any Leavers. What can you possibly think is acceptable about the impact on your daily life of a no deal brexit? Cards on the table, no higher impacts to the economy, just on your day to day life?

Do any of you leavers really think it is all ‘project fear’?
December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 4 2019, 03:00 PM) *
Wrong! The gov't is not *all* about Brexit.

You accuse me of wanting Brexit at all costs, and to hell with the consequences - can't you see this is exactly what you are advocating iro removing the Tory government?


That is sidestepping the question. The fact is the government is doomed.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 4 2019, 03:54 PM) *
That is sidestepping the question. The fact is the government is doomed.


That may be true - but I don't believe their demise will be forced prematurely.
December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 4 2019, 04:38 PM) *
That may be true - but I don't believe their demise will be forced prematurely.


Yes it will be. VONC in Mad May the day after the vote. Tories stress out, in fighting, turn on Arlene, BAM, VONC in the landed gentry government.
*Tim
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 3 2019, 07:49 AM) *
On a separate note, despite what many of you may think, I would prefer a deal, to no deal - just not the deal currently on the table, which IMO makes too many compromises on issues that led me to vote for Brexit in the first place.

What exsctly were you expecting to get more? Im very curious
December Dong
I thought Vidcapper wanted a No Deal :S

It's in or out, abide by the club rules or leave.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 4 2019, 04:48 PM) *
Yes it will be. VONC in Mad May the day after the vote. Tories stress out, in fighting, turn on Arlene, BAM, VONC in the landed gentry government.


1. Only the Tories can hold a no-confidence vote in their leader - obvious when you think about it, otherwise any gov't with a HOC majority could oust the opposition leader... rolleyes.gif

2. Whatever the Tories internal difficulties, they will *not* vote for their own demise! Labour have nothing to offer the DUP so they would at beat abstain.

QUOTE(*Tim @ Jan 4 2019, 04:50 PM) *
What exsctly were you expecting to get more? Im very curious


For a start, not having to abide by most of the EU rules while having no input to them.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 06:27 AM) *
1. Only the Tories can hold a no-confidence vote in their leader - obvious when you think about it, otherwise any gov't with a HOC majority could oust the opposition leader... rolleyes.gif

2. Whatever the Tories internal difficulties, they will *not* vote for their own demise! Labour have nothing to offer the DUP so they would at beat abstain.
For a start, not having to abide by most of the EU rules while having no input to them.

How did you expect the EU to sign up to a free-trade agreement if we don’t comply with their standards? The Remain campaign said this would happen.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 5 2019, 10:04 AM) *
How did you expect the EU to sign up to a free-trade agreement if we don’t comply with their standards? The Remain campaign said this would happen.


That doesn't have to mean we dot every 'i' and cross every 't' though.

I take it you don't disagree with rest of my post, about confidence votes?
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 10:23 AM) *
That doesn't have to mean we dot every 'i' and cross every 't' though.

I take it you don't disagree with rest of my post, about confidence votes?

Why would the EU allow us to sell them goods which couldn't be sold legally by a member state? Why would EU member states vote to allow the UK a trading advantage over themselves?
Rooney
Just read the BBC article about the upcoming Brexit documentary. Got to admit, this is a fascinating watch by the Leave campaign director.

December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 06:27 AM) *
1. Only the Tories can hold a no-confidence vote in their leader - obvious when you think about it, otherwise any gov't with a HOC majority could oust the opposition leader... rolleyes.gif

2. Whatever the Tories internal difficulties, they will *not* vote for their own demise! Labour have nothing to offer the DUP so they would at beat abstain.
For a start, not having to abide by most of the EU rules while having no input to them.


Wrroong. This whole post is wrong. Google a parliamentary VONC in the prime minister. Oh, yea. It exists. Sorry.

If they voted against Mad May for the party, rhen HAVE to do it as a parliament too. The questions raised otherwise would have to be covered even by rhe BBTory.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 5 2019, 12:37 PM) *
Why would the EU allow us to sell them goods which couldn't be sold legally by a member state? Why would EU member states vote to allow the UK a trading advantage over themselves?


Which is precisely why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be as bad as the pessimists claim - we could sell what we liked to anyone, and the EU could go f*ck themselves!
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 5 2019, 03:03 PM) *
Wrroong. This whole post is wrong. Google a parliamentary VONC in the prime minister. Oh, yea. It exists. Sorry.

If they voted against Mad May for the party, rhen HAVE to do it as a parliament too. The questions raised otherwise would have to be covered even by rhe BBTory.


You're still ignoring the fact that the opposition don't have enough votes to win a no-confidence motion against the gov't.
December Dong
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 03:10 PM) *
You're still ignoring the fact that the opposition don't have enough votes to win a no-confidence motion against the gov't.


You challenged the VONC in the PRIME MINISTER.

Against the government, they will have the numbers as soon as the Brexit vote fails, Mad May goes down and the Tories and DUP start infighting. That'll do it.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Auld Lang Peen @ Jan 5 2019, 03:12 PM) *
You challenged the VONC in the PRIME MINISTER.

Against the government, they will have the numbers as soon as the Brexit vote fails, Mad May goes down and the Tories and DUP start infighting. That'll do it.


The DUP have no incentive to bring down the gov't - under a Labour gov't they'd have no role.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Brit...ons_composition
December Dong
Sigh. No incentive?! They already HAVE their $1billion. Now they want the Brexit of their choice. This deal is not it. The deal passes, they rebel, government collapses. The deal fails, in fighting, more Tory rebels, DUP rebel too, and the government fails.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 03:05 PM) *
Which is precisely why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be as bad as the pessimists claim - we could sell what we liked to anyone, and the EU could go f*ck themselves!

We already can sell what we like to whoever we like with the exception of North Korea.
December Dong
Interesting the Brexiters - did anyone see Farage vs veg, where he flounders and has no idea and keeps saying WE WE WE? laugh.gif Who is we - don't care about food miles. The environment can get ta fook as long as they have their racist Brexit eh and try to revive empire with their conscription military bases?
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 5 2019, 03:05 PM) *
Which is precisely why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be as bad as the pessimists claim - we could sell what we liked to anyone, and the EU could go f*ck themselves!


Oops need to correct this, schoolmaster wise for accuracy...

Which is precisely why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be as bad as the pessimists claim - we could sell what we liked to anyone as we can at the moment but on much worse terms and with higher taxes on our products and we can import all the products we currently import, but many of them on much higher costs than currently (and some a little cheaper), and the EU could go UK will f*ck(*) themselves!

(*) Language Timothy.

Must Do Better. See Me.
Suedehead2
In an attempt to provide lexicographers with a new definition of chutzpah, May has been contacting union leaders to seek their support for her deal. I think a suitable response would be along these lines.

"Prime Miniister, in the two-and-a-half years since you took office, you have had many meetings with Rupert Murdoch. You have also met Tory donors on numerous occasions. You have made no attempt to have any dialogue with Trade Union leaders. Now that you are in a very big hole, largely of your own making, you want our help. You're not getting it. Good day."
5 Silas Frøkner
Surely as a Tory you’d have to be monumentally dense to even think a trade union would ever even fractionally agree with you
Suedehead2
If May had established some form of dialogue with union leaders when she became PM, they might have been willing to listen to her on this subject. However, she completely ignored them. All her waffle about listening to all sides of the EU debate has been just that - waffle.
Doctor Blind
A very good piece in the Guardian today: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commen...MP=share_btn_tw

QUOTE
And little has changed. The only two regions of the UK that have recovered after the 2008 crash are London and the south-east. So, during the referendum campaign, to raise the economy as a reason for staying in Europe was always likely to fall on deaf ears – and it did. Yet since 2016, remarkably, most remainers seem to feel that if they keep repeating this message, somehow people will change their minds. It won’t work. Nor will that other continuously repeated phrase: “You were lied to.” As if leave voters are so gullible they’d believe anything politicians tell them: in fact, they voted Brexit because they totally distrusted politicians. All these remainer arguments do is make people feel their protest vote is being ignored, and that establishment voices just want things to carry on as before.
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 12 2019, 02:16 PM) *
A very good piece in the Guardian today: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commen...MP=share_btn_tw


The stupidity of voting for a deal that will make poor people even poorer and allow rich Tories to exploit them even more is a self-defeating throwing the baby out with the bathwater when it wasnt the EU that created the problem in the first place - it was the British governments of the last 30 years and their lax legislation and blinkered chasing-moneypots at all expense as long as cash was rolling in to make it appear affluent.

That is what needs explaining, not blaming the EU for all our ills, when it was responsible for the larger part of our wealth-creation over the last half-century. I'd also highlight that the rich tosspots stand to be highly exposed if we stay in the EU and they have to make public all their tax-dodging stuffed offshore stashes thanks to EU incoming legislation later this year - that's what they are most frightened of and non-rich people need to understand that clearly.

Communal mutual moaning about the way things are is pointless unless you have something set up to change things for the better - which is going to be impossible if the economy collapses. So you have to keep on trying to get the message across because it's the right thing to do in the long run.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ Jan 12 2019, 04:20 PM) *
The stupidity of voting for a deal that will make poor people even poorer and allow rich Tories to exploit them even more is a self-defeating throwing the baby out with the bathwater when it wasnt the EU that created the problem in the first place - it was the British governments of the last 30 years and their lax legislation and blinkered chasing-moneypots at all expense as long as cash was rolling in to make it appear affluent.

That is what needs explaining, not blaming the EU for all our ills, when it was responsible for the larger part of our wealth-creation over the last half-century. I'd also highlight that the rich tosspots stand to be highly exposed if we stay in the EU and they have to make public all their tax-dodging stuffed offshore stashes thanks to EU incoming legislation later this year - that's what they are most frightened of and non-rich people need to understand that clearly.

Communal mutual moaning about the way things are is pointless unless you have something set up to change things for the better - which is going to be impossible if the economy collapses. So you have to keep on trying to get the message across because it's the right thing to do in the long run.

David Lammy made the same point very ell in a Commons speech this week. He was very clear that people had legitimate grievances but that the blame should lie with Westminster, not Brussels. I still worry that there are going to be a lot of very angry people when they realise that leaving the EU will have done precisely nothing to address their grievances. Indeed, they are the very people likely to suffer most from leaving.
vidsanta
Leaving aside all the political & economic issues, why do many people demanding another referendum call it a 'Peoples Vote'? Who on earth do they *think* voted in the 2016 referendum? rolleyes.gif
Holly and Izzy
Russian money buying ads that broke campaigning rules voted in the referendum.

There are numerous reasons why it might be called a people’s vote. Government has done such a bad job of negotiated that it feels out of control of the people, it would serve to confirm that the people truly do wish to leave under the terms that have now been presented, the amalgamation of Leave wishes making that unclear in 2016. It would make it a chance to run the vote under a cleaner, less toxic campaign ideally less open to vote manipulation. And it gels well as a promotional tactic to get past the infuriating ‘will of the people’ slogan that government has relied on by bringing together the will of all the people, which will only truly be correct on voting day with all their opinions taken into account.

Essentially, a catchy name that takes power away from representatives who have failed us.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Iz~ @ Jan 13 2019, 07:31 AM) *
Russian money buying ads that broke campaigning rules voted in the referendum.


I doubt many people actually care about that, and even if they'd known about it at the time, it's unlikely to have affected their vote.

Besides, look how much money the gov't spent on their pro-EU leaflet, the cost of which was only excluded from the campaign total on a technicality.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 13 2019, 07:59 AM) *
I doubt many people actually care about that, and even if they'd known about it at the time, it's unlikely to have affected their vote.

Besides, look how much money the gov't spent on their pro-EU leaflet, the cost of which was only excluded from the campaign total on a technicality.

A technicality being a euphemism for “the law”.

I avoid using the term “People’s Vote”, but Iz gave a very good summary of why it is being used. It is certainly a better phrase than “second referendum”.
Suedehead2
An excellent (and fairly short) speech by my MP in the debate in the deal.

http://bit.ly/2THRQwt
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jan 13 2019, 07:07 AM) *
Leaving aside all the political & economic issues, why do many people demanding another referendum call it a 'Peoples Vote'? Who on earth do they *think* voted in the 2016 referendum? rolleyes.gif


The first one was a referendum on the general idea of leaving the EU, with nothing specific and nothing having to be prescribed either by the voter or the government afterwards.

The second one would be a specific yes/no on a specific deal that almost everyone seems to hate. It's very simple and very very clear. The people are voting exactly for or against the deal, not some airy fairy Norway option, Cherry-picking impossibility, Canada Plus Plus Plus Plus Plus or any other nonsense that was promised and not delivered. It's all in black and white for everyone to read and the people would be giving the clear instruction to Parliament to accept or reject it.

So, a People's Vote. Not a referendum that Tories can choose to deliver any old bollocks that they can cough up in desperation. She says it's the best deal we can get. So let the People decide whether or not it was what was promised and when they can go for it or not.

For what it's worth, it may prove more popular amongst the electorate than parliament......but there's only one way to find out for sure....
Pogueschartpeak
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Jan 12 2019, 05:47 PM) *
David Lammy made the same point very ell in a Commons speech this week. He was very clear that people had legitimate grievances but that the blame should lie with Westminster, not Brussels. I still worry that there are going to be a lot of very angry people when they realise that leaving the EU will have done precisely nothing to address their grievances. Indeed, they are the very people likely to suffer most from leaving.


David Lammy is a gem, and much-hated by the Momentum followers I speak to, who try and trash his decency and common sense by calling him a publicity-seeker - you know, like publicising the Government kicking British citizens out of the country and sending them off to the caribbean just so he can get some publicity for himself. Corbyn, OTOH, did nothing. Said nothing. It's only his job. I'll just say I firmly put the record straight cos I can't stand hypocrisy.....
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