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Crazy Chris-tmas
So, May is on notice now and been told to go by the 1922 Committee after she tries MV4 again, whether it's passed or not. Speculation is that she'll leave No.10 immediately and that David Liddington will be Acting PM whilst a leadership election is held.

So, two confirmed candidates so far. Boris Johnson and Esther McVey.

Who would you like to see as leader and who do you think has a good chance of actually getting it and becoming the next PM? Can Boris get enough MP support to put him through to the membership ballot?

I'd like to see Boris win but have a hunch Gove will actually get it. Think Hunt will stand too.
Brett-Butler
The smart money for me would be Home Secretary Sajid Javid. It's not going to be Boris, and it's not going to be Jacob Rees-Mogg - they are much less popular amongst their fellow MPs than they are amongst Conservative voters, and the way the Tory leadership contest means that neither are likely to make it to the final two for the wider party run-off, unless they are the only two people that put themselves forward, or are two of only three that do so.
Harve
I really don't care about this much as it won't change the parliamentary arithmetic (unless Phillip Lee, Justine Greening etc. want to defect and vote no confidence upon an ERG PM I know you want to pls that would be really really exciting). In reality it's just gonna embarrass the UK on the international stage even further when the Tories choose a zoomer to represent their zoomer membership.

But Rory Stewart, Matt Hancock, Gove, Penny Mordaunt or Amber Rudd would be some of the less terrible candidates.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 16 2019, 10:17 PM) *
The smart money for me would be Home Secretary Sajid Javid. It's not going to be Boris, and it's not going to be Jacob Rees-Mogg - they are much less popular amongst their fellow MPs than they are amongst Conservative voters, and the way the Tory leadership contest means that neither are likely to make it to the final two for the wider party run-off, unless they are the only two people that put themselves forward, or are two of only three that do so.



I don't think JRM will stand to be honest. I can see Javid and Gove going to the party membership.

Some newspaper political editors are saying that Boris wouldn't be standing if he didn't think he could get enough MP's to see him through to the run off with the membership.
Doctor Blind
After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).

I picked Amber Rudd in the 2019 Predictions thread and for now I stand by that prediction. I think the Tories will want to put two moderates up for leadership, however if any Brexit favouring candidates make it to the final two (Dominic Raab, Michael Gove) then they will easily win.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 16 2019, 10:42 PM) *
After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).

I picked Amber Rudd in the 2019 Predictions thread and for now I stand by that prediction. I think the Tories will want to put two moderates up for leadership, however if any Brexit favouring candidates make it to the final two (Dominic Raab, Michael Gove) then they will easily win.

Amber Rudd's majority is far more precarious than Johnson's.
ChristmaSteve201
Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!

I think Sajid Javid has a good chance, he's fairly hardline on social issues, has a good background story being the son of a migrant and working his way up and he fairly inocuous when it comes to Brexit - a brexiteer but not overly loud about it!
vidsanta
QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ May 16 2019, 10:42 PM) *
After his disgraceful behaviour over the past year Boris is very much out of favour with the majority of Conservative MPs, so I really do not see him making the final two. He is the favourite at the moment and we all know the favourite never wins a leadership election in the Conservative Party.

Further to this, he is on track to lose his seat in the next General Election at the moment (on current polling).


I don't put too much stock in current polling though, it is all over the place! tongue.gif
Pogueschartpeak
Thatcher.

A zombie leader for an Undead political party.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 16 2019, 11:58 PM) *
Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!



Rudd is very likely to lose her seat at the next election if there's a big swing to Labour and Corbyn's elected. Anyway don't think they'll go for another woman.
Tawdry Hepburn
All my instincts point towards Michael Gove being the next PM.

Whatever way you look at it though, it's so bloody bleak. Much as I solemnly detest Madame Mayhem, the thought of what could happen after this terrifies me.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Tawdry Hepburn @ May 17 2019, 09:49 AM) *
All my instincts point towards Michael Gove being the next PM.

Whatever way you look at it though, it's so bloody bleak. Much as I solemnly detest Madame Mayhem, the thought of what could happen after this terrifies me.


If you're referring to Brexit, I think you are over-egging the pudding a bit. unsure.gif
Tawdry Hepburn
QUOTE(vidcapper @ May 17 2019, 09:59 AM) *
If you're referring to Brexit, I think you are over-egging the pudding a bit. unsure.gif


I'm talking specifically about who could potentially end up at the helm after she's gone.
Suedehead2
Just about the only positive thing that can be said about May is that the likely alternatives on the Tory benches are even worse.
Liаm
I'm thinking Gove too, as said most of the realisitc options are far worse than even Theresa so it's hardly the good thing we want it to be that she's off drama.gif

QUOTE(Steve201 @ May 16 2019, 11:58 PM) *
Amber Rudd is desperate to be PM!!

She's desperate enough just to stay as an MP!! Queen of recounts.
LexC
Penny Mordaunt’s constituency is 30 seconds away from my house and can I just say ANYBODY but her!
LexC
Gut instinct is it’ll be Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab that make it to the membership vote and Raab will win it.
Holly and Izzy
I'm thinking similar Lex, but Hunt against Gove, with Gove then winning. Picking ones ideal leader out of the bunch is not a pleasant process but I might be inclined to say Hunt... very reservedly.

There are surprisingly a lot of names that have maneuvered themselves well. This will be chaotic (as if it were going to be anything but).
Crazy Chris-tmas
According to some posters on DS, if Boris gets through to the last two then he'll win, simply because he's the likeliest to beat Corbyn in a general election. Polls have shown that and the Tories want to stay in power at any cost. His problem is getting past the MP's though so he'll be promising Cabinet and Ministerial posts right left and centre. Such as McVey may drop out if promised a cabinet post and get behind Boris. That's the thinking anyway.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 17 2019, 02:47 PM) *
According to some posters on DS, if Boris gets through to the last two then he'll win, simply because he's the likeliest to beat Corbyn in a general election. Polls have shown that and the Tories want to stay in power at any cost. His problem is getting past the MP's though so he'll be promising Cabinet and Ministerial posts right left and centre. Such as McVey may drop out if promised a cabinet post and get behind Boris. That's the thinking anyway.

So DS posters agree with just about every political commentator in the country. Wow.

Any MP who believes a promise of a Cabinet seat from Johnson should be automatically disqualified from public office on the grounds of showing dangerous naivety. Why would anyone believe a man who has been sacked from two jobs and two marriages for lying?
Pogueschartpeak
The Tories are going to be shit-scared of being wiped out and a left-wing Labour gov getting in, they will always look after number one regardless of the consequences. That means jolly old uncle Boris, or some hot new candidate with no baggage that might attract voters. Not seeing the latter at the mo.....

Gove would be like giving power to Golom. Though it would be fun to see Gove vs Johnson stabbing each other in the back and letting a dark horse through. (Cos that turned out so well last time)
Harve
QUOTE(LexC @ May 17 2019, 01:09 PM) *
Penny Mordaunt’s constituency is 30 seconds away from my house and can I just say ANYBODY but her!

I listed her as one of the less-bad options not because she's done anything good, but because she's managed to be in the cabinet for nearly 2 years without saying or doing anything repulsive, unless I've not been paying attention. That's quite a feat for a Tory and even more impressive given that she's a Brexiteer.
Brett-Butler
QUOTE(Harve @ May 18 2019, 10:10 AM) *
I listed her as one of the less-bad options not because she's done anything good, but because she's managed to be in the cabinet for nearly 2 years without saying or doing anything repulsive, unless I've not been paying attention. That's quite a feat for a Tory and even more impressive given that she's a Brexiteer.


She's caused some controversy over here in certain parts of the community recently due to her pledge to grant amnesty to British soldiers facing charges in Northern Ireland, including those involved in Bloody Sunday.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ May 18 2019, 10:03 AM) *
The Tories are going to be shit-scared of being wiped out and a left-wing Labour gov getting in, they will always look after number one regardless of the consequences. That means jolly old uncle Boris, or some hot new candidate with no baggage that might attract voters. Not seeing the latter at the mo.....



Boris will win in a landslide if he gets to the last two.

There needs to be a proper contest this time and not just a coronation like last time.
Rooney
I think Gove would be the best of a bad bunch. Boris Johnson is clearly popular with the Tory membership but I think almongst MPs he's genuinely disliked. Mainly because he suit what is best for himself. He would be a very populist choice of Leader and I'm sure many people who vote for him at any General Election in the same way people vote for Corbyn.

Doesn't matter who they get, I can't see them winning any majority at a General Election. Someone like Javid or Raab would be a horrible choice.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Rooney @ May 18 2019, 04:47 PM) *
Doesn't matter who they get, I can't see them winning any majority at a General Election. Someone like Javid or Raab would be a horrible choice.



I can see Boris getting a small working majority if the election's not until 2022.
Rooney
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 18 2019, 05:14 PM) *
I can see Boris getting a small working majority if the election's not until 2022.


I can't see that if Brexit happens, especially a harder version. No party will be able to command a majority.
Harve
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 18 2019, 03:23 PM) *
She's caused some controversy over here in certain parts of the community recently due to her pledge to grant amnesty to British soldiers facing charges in Northern Ireland, including those involved in Bloody Sunday.

She's been defence secretary for barely a few weeks and she's already taken the opportunity to double-down on Gavin Williamson's bellicose tenure as defence secretary?? Christ.

Yeah let's actually not play the Let's Find The Least Problematic Tory game cuz unsurprisingly they've all done something awful. x Even with the outriders like Anna Soubry who might stick up for some things we care about.
ChristmaSteve201
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 18 2019, 03:23 PM) *
She's caused some controversy over here in certain parts of the community recently due to her pledge to grant amnesty to British soldiers facing charges in Northern Ireland, including those involved in Bloody Sunday.


Most tories such as Johnny Mercer have been falling over themselves to align themselves with right wing loyalism since the new generation came to power in 2010 totally stompin all over the great legacy of the GFA, of which the foundations were created by John Major in the early 90s.
Crazy Chris-tmas
It's emerged tonight that FOUR Tory leadership challengers could go forward to the ballot of party members.

That would be very good news for Boris.

Boris Johnson is favourite to be the next Prime Minister.
At the moment, only two contenders are allowed through to the final run-off, with a ballot of party members deciding which of them is the winner.

But it has emerged that the executive of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers and the party's ruling board are to consider calls to double that number to four.
Suedehead2
Yeah, just make up the rules as you go along. And this bunch of clueless numpties are supposed to be running the country.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 21 2019, 10:22 PM) *
Yeah, just make up the rules as you go along. And this bunch of clueless numpties are supposed to be running the country.



The 1922 committee is said to be virtually split on the issue but has to consider it as a lot of the membership apparently thinks just two candidates is rather archaic.
Suedehead2
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 21 2019, 10:24 PM) *
The 1922 committee is said to be virtually split on the issue but has to consider it as a lot of the membership apparently thinks just two candidates is rather archaic.

The 1922 committee is split on most things.

If they allow four candidates to go through, that would mean that they could end up with a leader who is only third or fourth choice among MPs. We all saw how Ed Miliband was treated by the press when he wasn’t the MPs’ preferred leader. Of course, the same press will conveniently forget how unpopular the serial liar is with his MPs if he gets the job.
Crazy Chris-tmas
So May will make a live televised statement to the nation tomorrow lunchtime outside No.10 if it's fine, inside if not, after meeting the 1922 Committee again. She's expected to say she'll resign on Monday 10th June so will stay on for Trump's visit on 3rd and D-Day events. The Tory leadership race will start officially on 10th too but it's not clear yet if she'll stay on as caretaker PM until a new one's elected, maybe in late July, or ask The Queen to appoint David Liddington as Acting PM. She may clarify this tomorrow.

She's apparently decided to go rather than wait to be forced out but wants to host Trump's visit as PM and the 1922 seems to have agreed to this.
Rooney
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 23 2019, 10:50 PM) *
So May will make a live televised statement to the nation tomorrow lunchtime outside No.10 if it's fine, inside if not, after meeting the 1922 Committee again. She's expected to say she'll resign on Monday 10th June so will stay on for Trump's visit on 3rd and D-Day events. The Tory leadership race will start officially on 10th too but it's not clear yet if she'll stay on as caretaker PM until a new one's elected, maybe in late July, or ask The Queen to appoint David Liddington as Acting PM. She may clarify this tomorrow.

She's apparently decided to go rather than wait to be forced out but wants to host Trump's visit as PM and the 1922 seems to have agreed to this.


The 1922 committee obviously fearful Brexit won’t happen now. Only way I can see this going is a new leader forces No Deal which ensures chaos inside Westminster or we are in for another large Brexit delay.
ChristmaSteve201
The new leader will have to have a general election for two fold reasons - legitimacy and to break the parliamentary dead lock!
Santa Klaus
Imagine a Trump state visit being the last thing you do as Prime Minister. I’d want to make sure I got out beforehand
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Rooney @ May 23 2019, 11:45 PM) *
The 1922 committee obviously fearful Brexit won’t happen now. Only way I can see this going is a new leader forces No Deal which ensures chaos inside Westminster or we are in for another large Brexit delay.



I hope Boris gets in and is brave and forces no deal.
Crazy Chris-tmas
QUOTE(Klaus @ May 24 2019, 08:04 AM) *
Imagine a Trump state visit being the last thing you do as Prime Minister. I’d want to make sure I got out beforehand



Why? As I said on DS, I'd want to stay on too as it's a great honour to host the POTUS as PM.
vidsanta
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 24 2019, 08:15 AM) *
Why? As I said on DS, I'd want to stay on too as it's a great honour to host the POTUS as PM.


Although less so, this one... wink.gif
Jester
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 24 2019, 08:14 AM) *
I hope Boris gets in and is brave and forces no deal.

'Brave' for no deal? How can you even think that a no deal is an honourable or good thing?!

Madness. Utter madness and sheer selfishness that will bring the rest of us down with you.
5 Silas Frøkner
May quits on June 7th
Tawdry Hepburn
QUOTE(Jester @ May 24 2019, 09:59 AM) *
'Brave' for no deal? How can you even think that a no deal is an honourable or good thing?!

Madness. Utter madness and sheer selfishness that will bring the rest of us down with you.


You unfortunately won't ever get him to see that, sadly.
Rooney
QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 24 2019, 08:14 AM) *
I hope Boris gets in and is brave and forces no deal.


I couldn’t see Boris doing that. Boris does what’s best for Boris. If No Deal gets enforced, I think it breaks up the Conservative Party, the Union and probably kills off the party for a generation. There’s no majority for No Deal in Parliament.
Liаm
YAAAAS SHE'S GONE

As we've said, the alternatives will probably be as bad if not worse, but hey let's be positive about her going for a second.
Santa Klaus
This is the moment in history where it’s a case of ‘you though THIS was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet!’
Holly and Izzy
YAY

and shit, whatever’s coming is about to be actively terrible instead of a can-kicking charisma void.
Rooney
QUOTE(Klaus @ May 24 2019, 10:12 AM) *
This is the moment in history where it’s a case of ‘you though THIS was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet!’


Agreed. The vocal elements of the Tory Party clearly want a more Conservative leader. May was useless but at least she had half a brain. Will now be interesting to see whether the Pro-EU Tories and May’s allies who supported leaving through gritted teeth decide between the good of the country or the Conservative Party.
Pogueschartpeak
May Day. Now it gets vicious as chaos ensues whoever gets in, and the EU gets pissed at another 3 months wasted. I can see the EU forcing a showdown: either retract article 50 until you sort yourselves out or leave with no deal October. At which point if that happens without a referendum society in the UK gets massively divided for the forseeable future and everyone who didn't vote for a No Deal Brexit hates everyone who forced it on the country, blames them for their declining standards of living and opportunities, and bitterness lasts a generation. Tories will be wrecked, and Labour blamed for doing nothing to stop it.

I've seen it first hand in the closure of the pits and Thatcher in the 80's. Hate is for life....

Still, happy Bank Holiday! laugh.gif
Jester
QUOTE(Popchartfreak @ May 24 2019, 10:26 AM) *
May Day. Now it gets vicious as chaos ensues whoever gets in, and the EU gets pissed at another 3 months wasted. I can see the EU forcing a showdown: either retract article 50 until you sort yourselves out or leave with no deal October. At which point if that happens without a referendum society in the UK gets massively divided for the forseeable future and everyone who didn't vote for a No Deal Brexit hates everyone who forced it on the country, blames them for their declining standards of living and opportunities, and bitterness lasts a generation. Tories will be wrecked, and Labour blamed for doing nothing to stop it.

I've seen it first hand in the closure of the pits and Thatcher in the 80's. Hate is for life....

Still, happy Bank Holiday! laugh.gif

I agree with this. What a shambles we are as a country. I always feared a no deal (and this will be bad for all of us) and this is practically guaranteed now sad.gif
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