I'm going to constantly update this as the build up to May 29th continues, but here's my initial thoughts now that all of the songs have been chosen. I did this last night however, so the second Ukrainian entry is the one I used, so they'll probably be completely inaccurate. I shall post anyway. ^_^

 

Semi Final I

1. Greece
2. Bosnia-Herzegovina
3. Slovakia
4. Belgium
5. Moldova
6. Albania
7. Iceland
8. Latvia
9. Serbia
10. Russia
11. Malta
12. Portugal
13. Estonia
14. Finland
15. Poland
16. FYR Macedonia
17. Belarus

Semi Final II

1. Denmark
2. Azerbaijan
3. Croatia
4. Turkey
5. Romania
6. Sweden
7. Armenia
8. Ireland
9. Israel
10. Ukraine
11. Georgia
12. Cyprus
13. Lithuania
14. Switzerland
15. Slovenia
16. Bulgaria
17. Netherlands

Final

1. Croatia
2. Denmark
3. Azerbaijan
4. Romania
5. Turkey
6. Greece
7. Germany
8. Israel
9. Sweden
10. Norway
11. Armenia
12. Moldova
13. Bosnia-Herzegovina
14. Ireland
15. Albania
16. Iceland
17. Belgium
18. Russia
19. Latvia
20. France
21. Slovakia
22. Serbia
23. United Kingdom
24. Ukraine
25. Spain

Much more difficult to predict than last year tbh.

I think you've overestimated: Romania (just a little, I reckon low top ten), Turkey, Greece, Germany by a LOT and Russia

I think you've underestimated: Belarus, Ireland, Serbia by a LOT. Possibly the UK too - I reckon a revamp of the song might push us into the top 20.

 

I reckon Croatia, Denmark, Azerbaijan, Norway and Ireland are the front-runners for victory with Serbia as outsiders...

It's difficult to call indeed, but I just have this niggling feeling that Denmark's chances are being completely overrated here, by fans, the bookies and everyone really. I do like the song a lot, but it's so dated - I can't see it going down as a 'Eurovision classic' if it came top 5 at all...I'm still seeing 8th-13th for it but I'll be happy to be proved wrong. I also can't see Norway finishing any lower than 5th...I reckon Azerbaijan are definitely the front runners here, and my tip for the win at the moment.

Ok...here's my next set of predictions, after having listened to the songs a lot more, analysing their potential, and actually hearing the final Ukrainian entry. :lol:

 

Semi Final I

1. Slovakia - I really think this will stand out in this semi final. It's very different and should do well on the 25th, qualifying easily.
2. Belgium - Again, this slow paced song will stand out amongst the dirge. Think this'll get a lot of jury votes in this semi.
3. Albania - I hope I'm not overestimating this, but I do think it's a good song. Fair few neighbours here should see this through.
4. Greece - I'm rapidly going off this, and I've only put it this high because it's Greece and they have a decent diaspora.
5. Moldova - Catchy song, high votes from Portugal and Spain guaranteed amongst others.
6. Latvia - Quite a few of their neighbours in this semi, and it's a reasonably decent song.
7. Iceland - Good draw will see this go through. They're lucky because had this been on at the start I'd be concerned.
8. Serbia - Unlike Tyron, I'm not overly keen on this. It's relatively catchy though and is the most "novelty" song this year.
9. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Scraping through into the top ten methinks...
10. Finland - Likewise with this...
11. Portugal - Can see this getting the unlucky 11th position!
12. Russia - Even their neighbours won't be able to save this I've realised. It really is that bad...
13. Estonia - Boring song, definite non-qualifier in my eyes.
14. Malta - Lost in the crowd...
15. Belarus - Same with this, even if it is on near the end.
16. Poland - Horrendous song.
17. FYR Macedonia - And another awful song. I should probably move this up a bit though as Macedonia coming last would be a major shock.

Semi Final II

1. Azerbaijan - I see the top three being pretty close here. Azerbaijan may nick the title though with Armenia and Georgia voting here. I can't remember what their diaspora is like though!
2. Denmark - Sailing through, amazing song!
3. Croatia - This would walk the first semi, but I feel it may be pegged down slightly on the 27th.
4. Romania - Dead cert for qualification once again.
5. Israel - Being overestimated by the bookmakers I think. That said, I'll be very surprised if it doesn't qualify. Decent song.
6. Sweden - Should make it through relatively easily also...
7. Turkey - As should this, though not one of Turkey's strongest entries.
8. Armenia - Being overestimated by everyone I feel, but like Israel, I'll be surprised if this doesn't make it to the final.
9. Ireland - Should make it quite safely, but I'm not thinking it'll do as well as I did when it was chosen anymore...
10. Ukraine - A bit of a toss up between this and the Swiss, but I think Ukraine's geographical position and singing in English will benefit it.
11. Switzerland - I actually think if this makes the final it could be in contention for last place and nul points... I like the song, and it has a Eurovision feel to it, but it does sound a bit dated.
12. Georgia - Would qualify if it was in the first semi final, but even with guaranteed high votes from Azerbaijan and Armenia, this will struggle to get towards the top ten.
13. Bulgaria - Very forgettable, doesn't stand much of a chance in this semi.
14. Lithuania - Awful.
15. Slovenia - Even worse.
16. Cyprus - A good song, but I really think it'll get lost in this semi final, which is a real shame.
17. Netherlands - I'm going to make this prediction now, eight weeks before the final, but I honestly think this will get nul points in this semi final...

Final

1. Croatia - It's going to be so close, but I think the Croats will triumph on May 29th. And I hope they do!
2. Azerbaijan - Was a bit wary of putting two strong ballads as the top two, but with a bit of a ballad overload this year, it's my no means impossible.
3. Germany - Been listening to this a lot lately, and everyone seems to love it. I just can't see it winning though. I'd love it if it did, but I see it just falling short.
4. Romania - Can't see this finishing out of the top five. Has number four written all over it tbh.
5. Denmark - Not putting this quite as high as I did initially. Can see it getting a Jade Ewen sort of set of votes.
6. Turkey - Still doing well here, and can't see them being too far off the top five.
7. Israel - Can see this getting a steady set of votes from most countries, should allow it to go top ten this year.
8. Sweden - Will be surprised if this doesn't make the top ten, but I can't see it scoring particularly highly either.
9. Armenia - Same with this.
10. Greece - And this.
11. Ukraine - Perhaps I'm putting this a little high...I'm not sure. I think this year the middle section will be very close, so countries like Ukraine will benefit.
12. Slovakia - Same with Slovakia. I think this will win their semi final, but can't see it being able to compete with the likes of Croatia and Azerbaijan in the final.
13. Ireland - Same with Ireland, don't see them doing as well in the final as many people are predicting.
14. Norway - Very poor singing position, and they're going to be the first ballad in the competition, so will be forgotten about come the end.
15. Moldova - A bit of a Waldo's People result maybe here? A little higher though, as it's a better song.
16. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Every year has a mid-table Balkan song that really shouldn't have qualified...
17. France - This song has seriously stumped me. It could surprise us all and go top ten! I'm playing it safe though and going to say 17th.
18. Latvia - This has bottom ten written all over it...
19. Belgium - Gahhhh, I hate doing this to poor Belgium, particularly after I'm predicting they will do so well in the semi final. I just think it may get slightly overlooked. I'd be delighted if I'm wrong though.
20. Serbia - Surely this is the Croatia 2008? Really can't see this picking up many points!
21. Iceland - We all know this sort of song isn't too big in the world of Eurovision now, no matter how anthemic it may be.
22. Albania - Same as the above comment, though I'll be surprised if either fail to qualify.
23. United Kingdom - $h!t song, I think I may be being quite generous in putting us at 23rd. I think it may be the Ireland/Malta/Cyprus vote and a couple of other ones or twos for the Brits again this year.
24. Finland - A decent enough song, but can't see it appealing to the masses, or the juries.
25. Spain - A poor song, coupled with a poor singing position means Spain could well be bringing up the rear again. Aww.

I can see the points in the final being quite different to recent years. I think they may be spread out in the way they were in 2004 myself, with the top few countries flying off ahead leaving those below the top ten with scores that would be almost passable for 2003 and earlier. I'm sure I'll have changed my mind again in a few weeks, but this is what I'm thinking for now!

Azerbaijan don't have much of a diaspora IIRC...

David, given Ireland's recent run in the contest, we'd be incredibly happy with 13th! :lol:

Azerbaijan and Armenia will be lucky to get 1 point off each other after a bit of a fighting between the two. I'm sure 35 (ish) people were questioned by police in Azerbaijan for voting Armenia last year :lol: .

 

Other than that, I think they would have a good dispora - how else would their 2008 qualification by explained :P (other than the fact more neighbouring countries were able to vote).

Azerbaijan and Armenia will be lucky to get 1 point off each other after a bit of a fighting between the two. I'm sure 35 (ish) people were questioned by police in Azerbaijan for voting Armenia last year :lol: .

 

Other than that, I think they would have a good dispora - how else would their 2008 qualification by explained :P (other than the fact more neighbouring countries were able to vote).

 

At the time, it was one of my favourite's :lol:

 

Since then, I've gone off it a lot, especially compared to the two Azerbaijani entries since -_-

 

I grew to like it (but that happens with pretty much all ESC entries :lol: ), but it really was horrendous in comparison to some of the songs that failed to qualify :(

I thought it was dire, one of my least favourite Eurovision entries of all time. I honestly thought it would flop hard, how ignorant was I :lol: The screeching theatrical vocals weren't good at all for me, and if Estonia or someone had sent the very same song, it would have rightfully not qualified I reckon.

I wasn't a fan but it was so overblown and theatrical I don't see how anyone can claim to be surprised by the fact it went down well! :lol:

It certainly stood out, not surprised it did so well, but after this year I still expect it to be their least successful entry so far! :D

At the time I made a top 10 video to upload on YouTube, Azerbaijan was my #10. I think my top 10 was a bit like:

 

#1 Norway

#2 Ireland :kink:

#3 Germany

#4 Sweden

#5 France

#6 Greece

#7 Russia

#8 Armenia

#9 Latvia

#10 Azerbaijan

 

And somehow last year, when I made a top 10 video, Norway was my #2 :blink: I know Europe loved the song, but I started by hating it, and I grew to like it, but at the time of that video, I was certainly way over-rating it

Edited April 4, 201015 yr by bigzarafan

At the time I made a top 10 video to upload on YouTube, Azerbaijan was my #10. I think my top 10 was a bit like:

 

#1 Norway

#2 Ireland :kink:

#3 Germany

#4 Sweden

#5 France

#6 Greece

#7 Russia

#8 Armenia

#9 Latvia

#10 Azerbaijan

 

And somehow last year, when I made a top 10 video, Norway was my #2 :blink: I know Europe loved the song, but I started by hating it, and I grew to like it, but at the time of that video, I was certainly way over-rating it

Ohhh no...Ireland and Latvia! I'm so glad there aren't any novelty songs this year. :lol:

Ohhh no...Ireland and Latvia! I'm so glad there aren't any novelty songs this year. :lol:

 

Um, Lithuania? Slovenia? Serbia (kind of)?

Um, Lithuania? Slovenia? Serbia (kind of)?

 

Russia. :kink:

Could The Netherlands also count?

Serbia are the nearest to novelty imo, Slovenia and Lithuania are just $h!t. Although...having said that, I don't think I've seen either video! :lol: But I'm guessing neither are as daft as a puppet turkey or a load of people dressed as pirates...

Serbia's hardly novelty! :lol: (And I don't say that just because I have a soft spot for it :ph34r:) At least, not at all compared to Slovenia and Russia, which are intended as pisstakes (I'd say Lithuania's more of a bitch-off to Western arrogance, is it not? Just a fairly badly done one...), and Netherlands, which actually SOUNDS novelty as well...

Netherlands is not a novelty (again, soft spot notwithstanding :kink:) It's traditional Dutch folk-pop. Yes it's cheesy, yes it's old fashioned, but it's not a joke. At least intentionally :lol: Agree about Lithuania and Slovenia (but is Russia really a pisstake? I thought it was just awful...)