May 28, 201015 yr I really think Georgia will make it at the expense of one of the favourites, I have a gut feeling :o Cyprus less, so it's screaming 11th/12th... Very spot on with the first part! :o
May 28, 201015 yr Very spot on with the first part! :o I knew Georgia was going through, I reckon it came at least 5th or 6th in the semi too! Cyprus must have scraped in 10th, surely? I fully expect them to come bottom five in the final :heehee:
May 28, 201015 yr Author Yeah I can see Cyprus coming bottom five for sure! Can see Georgia repeating their 2007/8 results tbh and coming mid-table. Not a bad song, but not memorable enough to get into triple figures tbh. I don't think it's as good as Sopho or their disqualified entry last year myself. I'll do a full final prediction list later eeeeek!
May 28, 201015 yr Author Oh god...these results have come out ridiculously low! They look rather like a dodgy "it'll never happen" ESC Simulator set of results! Anyway, here's what I got, after spending the best part of two hours (!!!) going through recent voting patterns, position in the running order, realistic chances of winning, rehearsals and whatever else relevant! Armenia 219Germany 211Greece 200Turkey 167Romania 150Azerbaijan 142Denmark 136Israel 127Belgium 101Ireland 98Russia 97Serbia 86Norway 80Ukraine 76Georgia 59Iceland 58Bosnia-Herzegovina 46Albania 43Moldova 37Cyprus 35Spain 24Belarus 22United Kingdom 19Portugal 16France 13 And now some points to consider...Any other year I would have Armenia as a guaranteed 4th/5th finisher ala Sirusho, Aysel, that 'Shake It Up Sekerim' guy, Sakis in 2004 etc., but this year with no clear leader, and the favourites - Azerbaijan - having an awful rehearsal/semi final and performing first, I can see the typical eastern Eurovision song getting the win. Just.Germany are the country I've put second and I can see them getting A LOT of sixes, sevens and eights. It's a great song, but I can't see people going out in their droves to vote for it, and I fear this may lead to the former USSR state 'bloc voting' returning.I never really gave Greece much thought and just presumed they'd end up low top ten again, but now that it's been placed between the United Kingdom and Ireland, I see it as quite a frontrunner. I can't see it actually winning, but definitely worrying a few of us along the way tomorrow night, and settling in third!Turkey are another country like Russia, and they will benefit from the Turkish diaspora around Europe heavily this year - once again I'm putting this down to the likeliness of the voting being so widespread. It's a good song, and I can see it finishing a tad higher than 'Deli' did in 2008.Romania and Denmark are two countries with decent songs, but are they enough to stand out? I could well have underestimated Romania, as indeed could the bookmakers, but I see it scrapping along with a lot of fours and fives with the occasional high score from countries like Spain and Moldova. Denmark would be my bet for the win if they didn't look so barren on stage and as if they'd rather be somewhere else. As it is, I'll go with seventh for them.I've never actually tipped Azerbaijan or Israel for the win, and always thought their odds, particularly Israel's, were too low, however after the semi final, I definitely don't think either will be troubling the top of the leaderboard. The fact Azerbaijan are opening the show gives me less faith in the song, and I'm predicting it will finish just outside the top five. Israel, like Romania, will plod along all night with average scores, but without having the benefit of kind neighbours and diaspora like the Moldavians and Spanish...Which leads me onto Russia. 97 points for that piece of drivel is 97 too many in my opinion, but like I said in the above comment, I can really see the USSR bloc returning in force this time, and Russia will of course be the country that gains most from this. Last year we saw their constant 12 pointer domination disappear, however this year I think we could see some of those return, along with a lot of eights and tens.I think Belgium and Ireland will make the top ten - just - at the expense of Russia. They should get a reasonably wide spread set of results, but their performing positions and the countries singing around them could hinder their chances of going top five. I've already talked about the Russian abomination, and don't intend to speak of Nalitch anymore!Serbia were a tricky one. On the one hand they have a catchy tune, but on the other...it is rather naff. They'll probably get a few "novelty" votes and score highly from the Balkan countries, but I can't see them quite going top ten.Norway's performing slot and the overkill of ballads will ensure we stay away from Oslo next year too...Ukraine, Georgia and Iceland will benefit mostly from neighbourly votes I think, and I can't see any of them troubling the upper reaches. If Georgia put in a decent performance again they could maybe do better, and if Iceland were closing the show again I think they'd manage it too.Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania are your trademark inevitable flops in the final that are only going to score from the neighbouring countries, and I can't see either passing 50 points.Moldova are definitely the Finland of last year, however with some dire songs in the final, they should just about scrape the top 20.I think Cyprus and Belarus are both going to suffer and be labelled merely an inferior version of what is already in the final. Belgium come just before Cyprus, and is far superior, and there are about five ballads that are better than 'Butterflies'. Belarus will pick up a few ex-USSR votes, and Cyprus will get the inevitable 12 from Greece, but apart from that, I can't see either sending too many shockwaves across Europe.Spain's unique effort this year will merely be forgotten I fear, which is a shame as I do quite like the song. It will remain since 2004 that the Spanish went top ten though.And now onto the bottom three... I might actually be being a little optimistic about predicting Josh Dubovie and the United Kingdom at 23rd, as that French song could easily take off tomorrow night, and Portugal's ballad and good singing position could benefit them strongly, however that is what I've gone for, so I'll stick by it. Comment and let me know what you think! x x x
May 28, 201015 yr Cyprus will get a high mark from the UK (he's Welsh!) to add to their 12 from Greece, but yeah, probably no better than bottom ten. Looks fairly accurate to me David :D We're all predicting an Armenian win now, including me :rofl: it really doesn't feel like a 'winner' at all though somehow...
May 28, 201015 yr Very well thought out! Looks good to me, I wouldn't mind Armenia winning, I'm beginning to like it again.
May 28, 201015 yr Author Cyprus will get a high mark from the UK (he's Welsh!) to add to their 12 from Greece, but yeah, probably no better than bottom ten. Looks fairly accurate to me David :D We're all predicting an Armenian win now, including me :rofl: it really doesn't feel like a 'winner' at all though somehow... I had them down as getting five points off us...I know it could well be more, but with the inevitable Ireland-Turkey-Greece top three and songs like Denmark and Germany likely to appeal to UK viewers, I don't personally think they'll get any more. :( Very well thought out! Looks good to me, I wouldn't mind Armenia winning, I'm beginning to like it again. Same here, but like Rich said above, it really doesn't feel like a winner at all! Even 'Believe' felt more like a winner than this! :lol:
May 28, 201015 yr Pretty accurate I guess. I can't see Russia going quite that high though! You're right, those results ARE very ESC Simulator :o I could've sworn I'd had that top five before anyway. It's just a shame it would be unlikely to go down to the last vote off that, as Armenia vote last :(
May 28, 201015 yr Author Pretty accurate I guess. I can't see Russia going quite that high though! You're right, those results ARE very ESC Simulator :o I could've sworn I'd had that top five before anyway. It's just a shame it would be unlikely to go down to the last vote off that, as Armenia vote last :( I know yeah...I really want it to go down to the final vote but I'm not sure it will! Are they still planning on doing that thing where if it's relatively close they'll reveal all the points one by one for the final three countries? :unsure:
May 28, 201015 yr I'm not sure, it was announced it would be that way in 2006 and we haven't really had a chance since :lol:
May 28, 201015 yr Sorry, I just read David's original prediction. Haha, I'm a terror for exagerating.
May 28, 201015 yr Author Sorry, I just read David's original prediction. Haha, I'm a terror for exagerating. My original prediction is so different to what it is now. :o What a difference a few weeks can make ehhhh. I would never have predicted Armenia for the win even one week ago, regardless of who else would be qualifying!
May 29, 201015 yr Author Ok let's see how I did then... MY PREDICTIONS : ACTUAL RESULT 1. Armenia 219 : 7. Armenia 141 2. Germany 211 : 1. Germany 246 3. Greece 200 : 8. Greece 140 4. Turkey 167 : 2. Turkey 170 - accurate with the points here! 5. Romania 150 : 3. Romania 162 - and here. 6. Azerbaijan 142 : 5. Azerbaijan 145 - and here. :o 7. Denmark 136 : 4. Denmark 149 - and here too! 8. Israel 127 : 14. Israel 71 9. Belgium 101 : 6. Belgium 143 10. Ireland 98 : 23. Ireland 25 11. Russia 97 : 11. Russia 90 - I feel very pleased with this prediction! :D 12. Serbia 86 : 13. Serbia 72 13. Norway 80 : 20. Norway 35 14. Ukraine 76 : 10. Ukraine 108 15. Georgia 59 : 9. Georgia 136 16. Iceland 58 : 19. Iceland 41 17. Bosnia-Herzegovina 46 : 17. Bosnia-Herzegovina 51 - ^_^ 18. Albania 43 : 16. Albania 62 19. Moldova 37 : 22. Moldova 27 20. Cyprus 35 : 21. Cyprus 27 21. Spain 24 : 15. Spain 68 22. Belarus 22 : 24. Belarus 18 23. United Kingdom 19 : 25. United Kingdom 10 24. Portugal 16 : 18. Portugal 43 25. France 13 : 12. France 82 Overall I'm pretty pleased with this! Will do full analysis later.
May 30, 201015 yr Author Ok, so the Eurovision is over for another year, and I'm going to post my analysis here purely because I'm bored and have nothing else to do right now. :lol: Germany were the right winners, and for the third time in four years, I think the best song has probably won. Only Dima Bilan in 2008 defies this, but I'm glad he won as it meant Russia were able to put on that amazing show last year. NRK had a lot to live up to this year, and they certainly didn't disappoint. Whilst the staging might not have been quite as impressive, they were spot on with the presenters, and having three really worked. It also meant we didn't get two amateurs in the green room making twats of themselves. The interval act was fantastic as well, and dare I say even better than last year's swimming pool spectacle. One can only hope that the German broadcaster puts on just as good a show next year (in about 51 weeks time!!!), and I feel sure they will. I thought Armenia would win, and think they will probably be quite disappointed after flying up in the odds over the past week or so, yet finishing over one hundred points behind Lena and 'Satellite'. They won't be nearly as disappointed as Safura and the Azeris though, who dispite finishing in a very respectable fifth position, may feel that all that money has gone to waste... No doubt they'll be back with avengeance though, and right now if I had to predict a 2011 winner based on hype and what I expect countries to produce, I actually think it could be them. There is one other country I wouldn't be too surprised to see marvel next year and that is the United Kingdom. Maybe I'm being overambitious about our chances, and the BBC, but I can see the BBC getting a severe backlash in the next few days following Josh Dubovie's pitiful result, and really think they may have to bow down to pressure and just get a good f***ing song! Last place again last night, and ten more points than we deserved to be quite honest. Very disappointing for Ireland too; I think they truly thought they had a good chance, so it was a shame to see them fail so badly. Once again though, in hindsight, the weaker ballads on the night did poorly - Belarus, Norway and Portugal also included. I have to say I think the real surprise packages of the night were Belgium myself. Although I predicted a top ten placing for them, I certainly wasn't expecting them to do quite as well as they did. Fair play to them and Tom though - it was a good song, executed well and sung from an early position. Slightly surprised the Danes managed to do as well as they did too, but equally pleased as it's a great pop tune. The 2010 contest saw good results once again for Greece and Turkey, finishing eighth and second respectively, and I don't think anyone really doubted this. Romania also did very well, and deservedly after the stunning performance Paula and Ovi put in. France also continued the success of Patricia Kaas in 2009, nearly coming top ten again with their World Cup 2010 anthem 'Allez Olla Olé'. A decent night too for Spain, whose original performance was marred by the "fan" on stage. Getting to sing again was a bit ridiculous though... It was the usual decent night for Georgia, Ukraine and Russia, finishing ninth, tenth and 11th respectively, with the latter being treated to a chorus of boos from the crowd each time a high mark was awarded. Harsh but fair though. They did as well as I predicted too with that monstrosity of a song... In a year where the former Yugoslva countries seemed rather absent from the contest, it was left down to Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina to try and restore some credibility amongst the countries. Pretty predictable results from both though saw mid-table finishes. I was briefly worried though when the Bosnians started quite strongly! Albania had a reasonable showing, finishing in 16th, again quite a predictable placing. I was inevitably disappointed to see Iceland do so poorly, but that sound really doesn't seem to have a place in the Eurovision anymore. That said, Denmark still did well, and some may argue both are dated schlager anthems! We saw inevitable failures from Moldova and Cyprus, and despite both being pretty decent songs, it was pretty obvious from the outset that they'd just scraped through their semi finals. A night that didn't produce too many shocks, and based on my predictions I was most out with:Ireland -13France +12Norway -7 So I am relatively pleased with my list! The semi-finals are another story though...unlucky for Sweden, bizarre about Croatia and Slovakia...
Create an account or sign in to comment