May 23, 201015 yr If Sweden do indeed come 3rd, can you imagine how MOR Melodifesitvalen will be next year as Christer tries to desperately recreate the magic :lol: Good to see you've come round to Belgium now, the initial DNQ prediction was a bit bizarre.
May 23, 201015 yr just LOL @ Belgium predictions :lol: It's also the bookies favourite to win semi 1 now, and 6th favourite to win overall, so clearly a lot of money has been going on it recently!
May 23, 201015 yr just LOL @ Belgium predictions :lol: LOL @ this LOL :lol: I wouldn't be laughing yet....as Rich said it's currently the bookies favourite to win semi 1. (I'm going by what he's said I haven't checked odds lately :P) It seems like a song that will definitely stand out Edited May 23, 201015 yr by Sabrewulf
May 23, 201015 yr even if it is the bookies fave in semi 1 atm, doesn't mean anything... :P we'll find out if he makes the cut in 2 days... I personally think he will, but JUST make it, and far from winning the semi oc. :) just IMO :P
May 23, 201015 yr The fact the performance is just him and his guitar ( ;) ), no backing vocalists or acrobatics, will make him stand out by a mile. Less is very much more in this contest now.
May 23, 201015 yr He could very, very easily do a Norway 2003... I absolutely agree with this, and was the exact comparison I was thinking of. I'd be surprised if the UK don't give it at least a handful of points in the final (yes it will definitely be there in my opinion :P). I'm thinking for the UK points something like this (although the unpredictable juries could massively change it and assuming these are all in the final); 12 Points: Germany - Wishful thinking? Sounds like a smash in the UK and we gave Alex Sings Oscar Swings a 7 for gods sake :lol: 10 Points: Ireland - I can't quite see the UK giving Ireland the full 12 but surely a top 3 placing is in line for Niamh in our points? 8 Points: Turkey - We do seem to love Turkey don't we :lol: I can see this standing out for televoters, juries might weaken it slightly but not too much. 7 Points: Belgium - Could get more from us, not sure but I think it's on course for at least a 5 from the UK 6 Points: Azerbaijan - I can't see the UK giving it a huge score but should be safe for top 5 in our points 5 Points: Greece - Why do our televoters worship the ground Greece and Turkey walk on? Juries will dampen it down thank god. 4 Points: Norway - sounds like You Raise Me Up - enough said 3 Points: Denmark 2 Points: France - British televoters will lap this up, the jury won't 1 Point: Iceland/Sweden
May 23, 201015 yr Author I absolutely agree with this, and was the exact comparison I was thinking of. I'd be surprised if the UK don't give it at least a handful of points in the final (yes it will definitely be there in my opinion :P). I'm thinking for the UK points something like this (although the unpredictable juries could massively change it and assuming these are all in the final); 12 Points: Germany - Wishful thinking? Sounds like a smash in the UK and we gave Alex Sings Oscar Swings a 7 for gods sake :lol: 10 Points: Ireland - I can't quite see the UK giving Ireland the full 12 but surely a top 3 placing is in line for Niamh in our points? 8 Points: Turkey - We do seem to love Turkey don't we :lol: I can see this standing out for televoters, juries might weaken it slightly but not too much. 7 Points: Belgium - Could get more from us, not sure but I think it's on course for at least a 5 from the UK 6 Points: Azerbaijan - I can't see the UK giving it a huge score but should be safe for top 5 in our points 5 Points: Greece - Why do our televoters worship the ground Greece and Turkey walk on? Juries will dampen it down thank god. 4 Points: Norway - sounds like You Raise Me Up - enough said 3 Points: Denmark 2 Points: France - British televoters will lap this up, the jury won't 1 Point: Iceland/Sweden We have a hugely Eurovision-loyal Greek/Turkish diaspora in the UK...so if Cyprus gets through, combine that with the Welsh factor and I reckon they have our 12 in the bag. I reckon the jury will slaughter Turkey and Greece for us... I reckon: 12 / Germany 10 / Ireland 08 / Belgium 07 / Azerbaijan 06 / Denmark 05 / Turkey 04 / Greece 03 / Iceland 02 / Sweden 01 / Norway I don't see the televoters going for France really, the stage presentation is dire...
May 23, 201015 yr We have a hugely Eurovision-loyal Greek/Turkish diaspora in the UK...so if Cyprus gets through, combine that with the Welsh factor and I reckon they have our 12 in the bag. I reckon the jury will slaughter Turkey and Greece for us... I reckon: 12 / Germany 10 / Ireland 08 / Belgium 07 / Azerbaijan 06 / Denmark 05 / Turkey 04 / Greece 03 / Iceland 02 / Sweden 01 / Norway I don't see the televoters going for France really, the stage presentation is dire... It's the sort of thing that the drunkards that tune in for a laugh would vote for though I reckon - the more dire the staging, the more likely the votes :lol: If it was 100% televoting I'd be absolutely certain that France would get something from us but the juries may take them just out of contention. I still think 1 or 2 points is a possibiltiy though.
May 23, 201015 yr 1 Point: Iceland/Sweden If it's between Iceland & Sweden for our last point, I think the tele-voters would go more for Sweden. I doubt Iceland has been forgiven for recent events yet :kink:
May 24, 201015 yr Author I've attempted to work out how semi 1's votes will go:Slovakia 140Belarus 119Serbia 109Belgium 105Latvia 97Greece 80Iceland 71Albania 70Moldova 68Malta 64 -Finland 59Russia 46Portugal 35Macedonia 34Bosnia 30Estonia 29Poland 9Whilst I think that the top eight are pretty much guaranteed to qualify, the last two qualification places will be a pretty tight battle between Moldova, Malta, Finland and Russia (Bosnia could also be a dark horse depending on how many rock voters are in on Tuesday, but I reckon it'll go much the same way as Belarus did last year). I reckon jury votes will edge it so that Malta has a big chance of being one of those three, but I can't call the others - Moldova's lucky to be in a semi with Spain and Portugal, but Russia has the Baltic bloc in its favour - then again, I have no idea how well known Peter Nalitch is in neighbouring countries.
May 24, 201015 yr Author Semi 2 Azerbaijan 140Sweden 114Armenia 96Romania 96Denmark 94Croatia 84Turkey 83Ireland 80Israel 75Georgia 58 -Switzerland 55Cyprus 43Ukraine 27Netherlands 27Bulgaria 22Lithuania 6Slovenia 2 Incredibly close semi - 3rd to 12th could really be in any order, depending on how the juries go, but I'm pretty sure the top nine will make it with a dogfight for the final qualification place between Georgia, Switzerland and Cyprus - I think Georgia has the edge over the other two on juries, but it could really go any way, and I have a feeling I might have been slightly too kind to Switzerland in my voting. Netherlands could be a surprise package as well...it's just a shame that Turkey seem fated to qualify with any old trash, because they really don't deserve it this year. If the juries have any sense then we could see the first Turkish-free final in donkey's years! I'd have Cyprus in over Turkey in that event...
May 24, 201015 yr Author These results put into random.org generated a running order as follows: Belarus Spain Norway Azerbaijan Georgia Denmark Iceland Serbia Malta Sweden Belgium UK Israel Moldova Turkey Croatia Latvia France Albania Romania Greece Germany Armenia Ireland Slovakia Is it even worth trying to call the final when something like that would change the four-horse race to a five-horse one between Romania, Germany, Armenia, Ireland and Slovakia? :lol: I'll save final calls for Friday... EDIT: A second run on random.org came up with the fairly neutral running order of: Latvia Spain Norway Croatia Serbia Belgium Romania Malta Israel Moldova Slovakia UK Azerbaijan Belarus Iceland Ireland Sweden France Greece Turkey Denmark Germany Armenia Georgia Albania ...so I might give calling this thing a shot. (On a side-note, how much of a nightmare would that opening quartet be? :lol: Almost as bad as opening last year with Lithuania, Israel and France...)
May 24, 201015 yr Turkey's entry isn't that bad. I'm not a particular fan but it's not unlistenable, and in fact I prefer it to a lot of their entries over the past decade :lol: They're one of my least favourite countries by far, I've never once loved an entry of theirs. The closest I came was 2006 but it's hardly something I'd rush back to listen to now.
May 24, 201015 yr I wouldn't be surprised if you've got all the qualifiers right, but despite having to perform first, I see Moldova as a guarenteed qualifier.
May 24, 201015 yr Author I wouldn't be surprised if you've got all the qualifiers right, but despite having to perform first, I see Moldova as a guarenteed qualifier. The problem is where their votes will come from - they lack neighbours in SF1 to provide televoting support, and only really have Spain and Portugal to support them on that front, who could both very easily punish them in the jury vote - which is also a problem, as it isn't the sort of thing juries will be naturally climbing over themselves to vote for (although they did support Finland last year, so they're still in with a shot). Performing first is an advantage with a punchy song, but Moldova could very, very easily do a Bulgaria 2008.
May 24, 201015 yr Author Turkey's entry isn't that bad. I'm not a particular fan but it's not unlistenable, and in fact I prefer it to a lot of their entries over the past decade :lol: They're one of my least favourite countries by far, I've never once loved an entry of theirs. The closest I came was 2006 but it's hardly something I'd rush back to listen to now. Turkey are proper Eurovision-by-numbers on a good year, and pretty dire on a bad year. I loved Deli but I can't stand MaNga at all - it's by far my least favourite of their entries in recent memory (I even liked Athena in 2004 at the time! :puke: And I could tolerate Shake It Up Sekerim). Dum Tek Tek was so generic it killed me, but at least it was an alright song. In fact, 2006 does seem to be the last time they got away from the generic Turkish pop/generic Turkish rock formula...
Create an account or sign in to comment