Ireland will be 7th - 10th, I think. I never thought Ireland would win, so there's no disappointment on my behalf. :cheer:

Ya im the same i never thought Ireland would win the final lthough it would be nice if we did, a top 5 i would love but top 10 is very respectable aswell and i think your prediction could be correct Cal, but time will tell as they say.

Israel aren't going to have that much impact after Portugal, and Belgium will be scrapping too much with Cyprus - if Belgium was on just a few songs later he'd have stood a chance.

 

well I don't really buy the who performs 1st or 23rd and before Greece or after Armenia will win this contest...Belgium is dead cert for a top 5 placing and Cyprus bottom 5.

 

I'm even starting to think that Safura might be the first after 26 years who will win and perform first.

Edited May 27, 201015 yr by Addy!

well I don't really buy the who performs 1st or 23rd and before Greece or after Armenia will win this contest...Belgium is dead cert for a top 5 placing and Cyprus bottom 5.

 

I'm even starting to think that Safura might be the first who will win after performing first.

 

She wouldn't be, 1975 and 1984's winners performed first.

Also i dont think ireland performing after Belarus will have too much of an impact, Belarus is more of a gimmicky ballad with its performance where Irelnad has no gimmicks so they would appeal to different voters in many ways.

 

Also i really love the Iirsh entry but i still think the Irish entry last year was just as good and better in some ways and it was performed brilliantly, Niamh just missed the very last high note tonight and the backing singer in a way finished the note off, i hope Niamh can get that final note in on saturday night as it finishes the song much better.

Edited May 27, 201015 yr by Aphrodite

A truly awful draw. It neutralises basically everyone

 

Surely if nearly everyone is neutralized than that would mean nearly nobody is neutralized? (or at least negatively effected) Cause if nearly everyone get's a negative then it doesn't really make a difference to chances... All the neutralizations cancel each other out etc? Or am I missing something?

Edited May 27, 201015 yr by Sabrewulf

She wouldn't be, 1975 and 1984's winners performed first.

 

okay then the first one after 26 years :D

well I don't really buy the who performs 1st or 23rd and before Greece or after Armenia will win this contest...Belgium is dead cert for a top 5 placing and Cyprus bottom 5.

 

I'm even starting to think that Safura might be the first who will win after performing first.

They're going to be stealing points off each other, it's pretty simple :P Hence why Ireland wouldn't have wanted to be anywhere near Norway or Belarus - going near a similar song means you don't stand out.

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bigzarafan 17

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moth09 2

C.R. 2

lithuvien 1

ScottyEm 1

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Chriss_S 1

 

:lol: top 10 highlighted.

in all seriousness...if you're a fan of one song, do you really change your mind and not vote for it just because it's performing 3rd or after another ballad which sounds the same as the one you like?

Surely if nearly everyone is neutralized than that would mean nearly nobody is neutralized? (or at least negatively effected) Cause if nearly everyone get's a negative then it doesn't really make a difference to chances... All the neutralizations cancel each other out etc? Or am I missing something?

That's the point. Not all songs are on the same levels of chances to begin with. For example, Azerbaijan would've been in with a big shot to win compared to, say, Denmark. Now a very favourable draw for Denmark and a not so favourable draw for Azerbaijan means that Azerbaijan has been neutralised and Denmark boosted, and they're now in with close chances to win.

 

Essentially, they've been neutralised to a point where there is no truly obvious 'yes, that is a fantastic slot for them and they will win from it'. I don't think you can really say the results will be exactly the same like this as they would've been before :lol:

They're going to be stealing points off each other, it's pretty simple :P Hence why Ireland wouldn't have wanted to be anywhere near Norway or Belarus - going near a similar song means you don't stand out.

 

 

but the times are changing...now 75% who follows the ESC, already knows the songs mostly via internet.

in all seriousness...if you're a fan of one song, do you really change your mind and not vote for it just because it's performing 3rd or after another ballad which sounds the same as the one you like?

You're viewing this through the prism of someone who's been paying attention up until this point. The vast majority of viewers on the night will be hearing most of the songs for the first time, hence, say, Ireland won't stand out much coming after Belarus. These are people who haven't yet formed opinions on the tracks :P

Who posted in: ESC 2010 // SemiFinal 2 // Live 8pm [bST]Poster Posts

Aphrodite 97

SKOB 65

Addy! 57

gooddelta 50

Tyron 49

ih3artduck5 43

M!key 40

Jerick 36

♫ Boyan ♫ 27

David 26

 

...

 

:lol: top 10 highlighted.

 

woo-hoo! not bad for newbie :lol: :cheer:

 

 

 

now... i know that 1st draw is bad... but is it as bad when you are allowed to vote from the beginning of the show?

don't count Safura out... Unfortunately :(

Also i dont think ireland performing after Belarus will have too much of an impact, Belarus is more of a gimmicky ballad with its performance where Irelnad has no gimmicks so they would appeal to different voters in many ways.

Not really. They're both big ballads with massively stated key changes. Belarus just states its key change far less subtly.

okay then the first one after 26 years :D

 

Remember it was just juries then. It would an extrodinary feat if televoting helped first on to win.

now... i know that 1st draw is bad... but is it as bad when you are allowed to vote from the beginning of the show?

don't count Safura out... Unfortunately :(

From the contests which vote from the beginning (Eurovision Dance Contest and Junior Eurovision), the trends indicate it doesn't help songs at the beginning - fairly logically. Most people will be hearing the songs for the first time and aren't likely to make a snap decision that a particular song is definitely their favourite just one song in - most wait until the end. It seems to pronounce the advantage of the songs that go later, and help slightly the ones that go in the middle.

but the times are changing...now 75% who follows the ESC, already knows the songs mostly via internet.

Really? :lol: Where are you getting that figure from? :huh: I severely doubt that it's the case that they know all the songs via the internet - maybe their own country's song, yeah, but all of them?

That's the point. Not all songs are on the same levels of chances to begin with. For example, Azerbaijan would've been in with a big shot to win compared to, say, Denmark. Now a very favourable draw for Denmark and a not so favourable draw for Azerbaijan means that Azerbaijan has been neutralised and Denmark boosted, and they're now in with close chances to win.

 

Essentially, they've been neutralised to a point where there is no truly obvious 'yes, that is a fantastic slot for them and they will win from it'. I don't think you can really say the results will be exactly the same like this as they would've been before :lol:

 

I have to say I think you're getting a bit heavy with all this neutralization stuff....:mellow:

 

Also I doubt the juries will play by the same rules (they'll know all the songs very well)....and they're 50% of the vote remember.

Edited May 27, 201015 yr by Sabrewulf

Really? :lol: Where are you getting that figure from? :huh: I severely doubt that it's the case that they know all the songs via the internet - maybe their own country's song, yeah, but all of them?

 

I don't have figures but they get to hear the songs before the final...and having 2 semi's doesn't that tell you that they have already heard all the songs apart from Big 4 + host?