Right, so Eurovision came and went and I was thinking, even though Germany got the most POINTS it doesn't mean it got the most VOTES. So i thought long and hard (5 minutes) of trying to find away of estimating who would get the most votes. So this is what i came up with. *drumroll*:

 

If 1 point from a country is 1% of its population, 2 points -> 2% etc. meaning countries with the biggest populations wll be more heavily weighted so thats what i did.

 

Actual Results

1. 246 - Germany

2. 170 - Turkey

3. 162 - Romania

4. 149 - Denmark

5. 145 - Azerbaijan

6. 143 - Belgium

7. 141 - Armenia

8. 140 - Greece

9. 136 - Georgia

10. 108 - Ukraine

11. 90 - Russia

12. 82 - France

13. 72 - Serbia

14. 71 - Israel

15. 68 - Spain

16. 62 - Albania

17. 51 - Bosnia-Herzegovina

18. 43 - Portugal

19. 41 - Iceland

20. 35 - Norway

21. 27 - Moldova

22. 27 - Cyprus

23. 25 - Ireland

24. 18 - Belarus

25. 10 - United Kingdom

 

Estimation

1. 47,459,171 - Armenia

2. 41,376,544 - Germany

3. 36,432,820 - Azerbaijan

4. 35,593,945 - Turkey

5. 32,404,895 - Belgium

6. 28,414,478 - Greece

7. 28,197,374 - Georgia

8. 25,618,826 - Romania

9. 21,910,966 - Ukraine

10. 18,731,969 - Denmark

11.13,929,000 - Portugal

12. 13,561,517 - Serbia

13. 11,118,350 - Russia

14. 10,959,763 - Spain

15. 10,807,147 - Bosnia and Herzegovina

16. 10,311,913 - Albania

17. 8,685,162 - France

18. 8,065,498 - Israel

19. 7,025,555 - Ireland

20. 5,474,125 - Iceland

21. 3,547,456 - Belarus

22. 3,293,811 - Moldova

23. 2,315,859 - Cyprus

24. 1,656,446 - Norway

25. 341,884 - United Kingdom

 

Armenia who got a 12 from Russia and some high points from Germany and Turkey is the main reason for its lead.

 

Just thought this was interesting, im probably alone but i thought i would post it :D

 

Flaws:

There isn't a uniform gap inbetween the points (there cound be 10 votes between 12 and 10 pointers but 120 votes between 10 and 8)

Do all of Russia & Turkey vote in the Eurovision?

Not all populations are from this year.

 

If someone can think of a more accurate way I'd love to hear it :)

 

:o That's really interesting there Cian, probably the most accurate way to predict - without knowing percentages of the votes :P

Really interesting, I've always wondered about the actual amount of votes, and whether the winner would still be the same

 

The biggest flaw though, is that in 2009, there were only 10,680,682 votes cast :P Here, each song in the top 15 got more than that, and then there's the semi-finals

Plus, let's not forget that juries account for half the votes, so this is very inaccurate until we get the public vote results later this month...

Oh i admit, in terms of actual number of votes its incredibly inaccurate! but i think the actual positions could be more accurate. I never thought of the jury! :drama: