Today's YouGov poll puts Labour just one point behind the Tories, with Labour on 39% compared to the Tories' 40% (the Lib Dems are on 12%). This is the smallest gap YouGov has shown since late 2007 and "the election that never was". On a strictly uniform swing and on the current constituency boundaries, these results would give Labour 321 seats, and when you add in the 3 SDLP MPs and factor out the Sinn Fein MPs who don't take their seats, it would be just enough to give Labour a majority. Meanwhile, the Coalition's approval ratings have plunged from a net rating of about +25 in early summer to -8 on Tuesday (it recovered slightly to -4 today). This is pretty much unprecedented for a new government which hasn't even hit the six-month mark yet.

 

How long til Labour finally overtake the Tories? It could happen within the next few days, although if not, it'll definitely happen during Labour's conference. This thread will track the polls as the Coalition go into freefall!

Today's YouGov poll puts Labour just one point behind the Tories, with Labour on 39% compared to the Tories' 40% (the Lib Dems are on 12%). This is the smallest gap YouGov has shown since late 2007 and "the election that never was". On a strictly uniform swing and on the current constituency boundaries, these results would give Labour 321 seats, and when you add in the 3 SDLP MPs and factor out the Sinn Fein MPs who don't take their seats, it would be just enough to give Labour a majority. Meanwhile, the Coalition's approval ratings have plunged from a net rating of about +25 in early summer to -8 on Tuesday (it recovered slightly to -4 today). This is pretty much unprecedented for a new government which hasn't even hit the six-month mark yet.

 

How long til Labour finally overtake the Tories? It could happen within the next few days, although if not, it'll definitely happen during Labour's conference. This thread will track the polls as the Coalition go into freefall!

 

There isn't a general election until May 2015 so any lead Labour may or may not have over the next few years is largely irrelevant, they could have a 30 point lead at xmas and it would count for nothing.

 

Of course there will be a drop in support for us over the next couple of years, I will be surprised infact shocked if Labour don't have a 20 point lead at some point in the next 3 years as the cuts kick in

 

But Obama is doing as badly in the polls as Bush was, Rudd was kicked out, Sarkozy is as hated in France, it is natural that the public take things out on the leader during tough times

 

 

There isn't a general election until May 2015

 

Again, keep dreaming. Obama and Bush don't/didn't have to rely on another party to stay in power.

Again, keep dreaming. Obama and Bush don't/didn't have to rely on another party to stay in power.

 

Have Labour and Lib Dems found a money fairy at the bottom of the garden ? both parties are SKINT, they can afford another election in the near future as much as I can afford a Bugatti Veyron

 

They can huff and they can puff but they haven't got the money to blow the house down

Have Labour and Lib Dems found a money fairy at the bottom of the garden ? both parties are SKINT, they can afford another election in the near future as much as I can afford a Bugatti Veyron

 

They can huff and they can puff but they haven't got the money to blow the house down

 

Once again, we've been here before and you were contradicted then. Labour have raised nearly as much money as the Tories since the election (£10m to £12m; and it's actually THANKS to the Tories that Labour have had this surge in donations, because the Tories' actions have got Labour supporters fired up!), and deliberately held some money back during May's election campaign precisely because they suspected there'd be a new election shortly. And besides, it's not as if money actually has that big an effect - the Tories haven't won a majority in 18 years despite being by far the best-funded party that whole time.

Once again, we've been here before and you were contradicted then. Labour have raised nearly as much money as the Tories since the election (£10m to £12m; and it's actually THANKS to the Tories that Labour have had this surge in donations, because the Tories' actions have got Labour supporters fired up!), and deliberately held some money back during May's election campaign precisely because they suspected there'd be a new election shortly. And besides, it's not as if money actually has that big an effect - the Tories haven't won a majority in 18 years despite being by far the best-funded party that whole time.

 

I still don't believe Labour would dare bring down the government even if the Lib Dems cancelled the coalition, there is a possibility of Milliband winning in 5 years time but it is traditional in this country for a party to win 2 terms or more and I believe Cameron will be given another 5 years in 2015

Edited September 15, 201014 yr by I ❤ JustinBieber

I still don't believe Labour would dare bring down the government even if the Lib Dems cancelled the coalition, there is a possibility of Milliband winning in 5 years time but it is traditional in this country for a party to win 2 terms or more and I believe Cameron will be given another 5 years in 2015

 

ANOTHER 5 years? You forget he didn't win an election in the first place! Your theory that governments always have multiple terms in Britain (which was only true for the last Tory and Labour governments because their opposition immediately fell apart internally after losing power - which doesn't appear to be happening with Labour this time) only applies in any sense to a government that was given a full mandate in the first place - which Cameron wasn't.

 

You also forget that Labour can take power without an election. If the Commons passes a vote of no confidence in the current government, Miliband A or Miliband B will be given the option by the Queen to form a Coalition government with the Lib Dems because there are the current numbers of MPs to make that just about work. That might not be received too well by the public, but it would be perfectly legitimate constitutionally, and would be far easier if the fixed-term parliaments bill is passed.

A possible situation could be The Condems drastically losing public support as the cuts really bite, The Lib Dems withdrawing triggering the General Election and Labour really cleaning up. Also another factor could be whoever winning the Labour leadership undergoing a honeymoon effect just as the governments own honeymoon period is coming swiftly to an end.

ANOTHER 5 years? You forget he didn't win an election in the first place! Your theory that governments always have multiple terms in Britain (which was only true for the last Tory and Labour governments because their opposition immediately fell apart internally after losing power - which doesn't appear to be happening with Labour this time) only applies in any sense to a government that was given a full mandate in the first place - which Cameron wasn't.

 

You also forget that Labour can take power without an election. If the Commons passes a vote of no confidence in the current government, Miliband A or Miliband B will be given the option by the Queen to form a Coalition government with the Lib Dems because there are the current numbers of MPs to make that just about work. That might not be received too well by the public, but it would be perfectly legitimate constitutionally, and would be far easier if the fixed-term parliaments bill is passed.

 

That is why it would never happen, there would be rioting in the streets and the Murdoch press would spit venom like never before

 

Cameron has a mandate from the queen to govern even if he didn't win a majority in parliament, plus Labour/Lib Dems don't have enough between them to form a majority government, technically with the SDLP/Plaid Cymru/Greens/SNP they do just about but it will never happen

 

 

A possible situation could be The Condems drastically losing public support as the cuts really bite, The Lib Dems withdrawing triggering the General Election and Labour really cleaning up. Also another factor could be whoever winning the Labour leadership undergoing a honeymoon effect just as the governments own honeymoon period is coming swiftly to an end.

 

They will lose drastic support, it is inevitable as cuts start biting, I fully expect that Milliband will have a 20% lead inside the next 2 years, am sure the Tories and Lib Dems are of the same way of thinking to me there and have that factored in

That is why it would never happen, there would be rioting in the streets and the Murdoch press would spit venom like never before

 

Cameron has a mandate from the queen to govern even if he didn't win a majority in parliament, plus Labour/Lib Dems don't have enough between them to form a majority government, technically with the SDLP/Plaid Cymru/Greens/SNP they do just about but it will never happen

Whatever happened to the 150+ majority you were speaking of in January at the same time as you were saying that a hung parliament would never happen?

Whatever happened to the 150+ majority you were speaking of in January at the same time as you were saying that a hung parliament would never happen?

 

I never said 150 :unsure:

 

I thought it would be somewhere between 60 and 100 ?

 

But somehow Brown managed to connect with more of the public than I imagined

That is why it would never happen, there would be rioting in the streets and the Murdoch press would spit venom like never before

 

Cameron has a mandate from the queen to govern even if he didn't win a majority in parliament, plus Labour/Lib Dems don't have enough between them to form a majority government, technically with the SDLP/Plaid Cymru/Greens/SNP they do just about but it will never happen

 

The Queen doesn't give mandates to anyone, she only accepts the recommendation of the House of Commons. Ask any constitutional expert, and they'll tell you that, by definition, a government only has the right to govern if it has the confidence of the Commons. If the Lib Dems were to withdraw from the Coalition, Cameron would lose his majority and so therefore would lose the confidence of the Commons and the right to govern; and likewise, if Labour could command a majority and the confidence of the Commons, they would have the right to govern until this Parliament automatically expires in May 2015. The SNP and Plaid Cymru would NEVER vote down a Labour government if the alternative was the Tories.

 

But this is all hypothetical and like I said, even though Labour would have the constitutional right to do this, I agree that the public probably wouldn't accept it, unless Osborne sends the economy into a really bad place, in which case people might accept Labour taking power automatically as a national emergency. Otherwise, I'd expect Miliband to opt for an election whenever this Coalition inevitably falls within the next 18 months.

I never said 150 :unsure:

 

I thought it would be somewhere between 60 and 100 ?

 

But somehow Brown managed to connect with more of the public than I imagined

 

Actually, I wouldn't give any credit to Brown at all, I'd say it was simply a matter of disillusioned lifelong Labour supporters who were previously telling pollsters they'd abstain suddenly waking up and realising what a Tory government would mean (fears that have now been realised).

I never said 150 :unsure:

 

I thought it would be somewhere between 60 and 100 ?

 

But somehow Brown managed to connect with more of the public than I imagined

There will be a Cameron majority of at 100-150 IMHO, there is more and more discontent with Labour by the day and still another 4 months of Brown's regime left so 4 months of mass unchecked immigration, 4 months of stealth taxes, 4 months of bumbling and dithering, 4 months of dead soldiers (not that that will change under Cameron but each dead soldier weakens Brown)

 

As for the Lib Dems they are just a protest vote really, a political irrelevance who will never have any real influence and are more heavy taxing than even Labour are although I agree with them over Iraq/Afghanistan

 

Hate Labour ? vote Tory, hate Tory ? vote Labour

 

IN GENERAL http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t=0&start=0 makes for rather hilarious reading in retrospect. Other highlights include you predicting confidently that the Lib Dems would never hold any positions of power without your lifetime.

I never said 150 :unsure:

 

I thought it would be somewhere between 60 and 100 ?

 

But somehow Brown managed to connect with more of the public than I imagined

I'd say Brown was the millstone around Labour's neck actually. Were it not for him and the poor position we inherited from Iraq in 2005, we could well have won the election under David Miliband...

I'd say Brown was the millstone around Labour's neck actually. Were it not for him and the poor position we inherited from Iraq in 2005, we could well have won the election under David Miliband...

 

I don't know about winning outright, but I think David Miliband or a 'caretaker leader' like Alan Johnson would've shifted 2-3% from the Tories to us, which I think would've been enough for us to be the biggest party at any rate.

I don't know about winning outright, but I think David Miliband or a 'caretaker leader' like Alan Johnson would've shifted 2-3% from the Tories to us, which I think would've been enough for us to be the biggest party at any rate.

I think we could've scraped a single-figure majority under either of those two, really...certainly we wouldn't have been as utterly destroyed in the debates.

IN GENERAL http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t=0&start=0 makes for rather hilarious reading in retrospect. Other highlights include you predicting confidently that the Lib Dems would never hold any positions of power without your lifetime.

 

^And there's a high chance there'll be a hung parliament, meaning the Lib Dems will get an influence in government (albeit limited).

 

Yes, I'm probably going to vote for them... they're who I'm closest to ideologically, and although I don't particularly like Clegg, the party is still a lot better than either Labour/Tories right now.

 

Ha oh God, I'd completely forgotten I was planning to vote Lib Dem! Atleast I got my bad feelings about Clegg on the record way back then :arrr:

I think we could've scraped a single-figure majority under either of those two, really...

 

I don't think David Milliband would have or will now connect with the public, Ed is a better orator even if he is more left wing than David