UK economic recovery 'to show sharp slowdown'

Source - BBC News

 

The latest GDP figures may affect the Bank of England's plans for quantitative easing The economic recovery in Britain is expected to show a sharp slowdown when figures are released later on Tuesday.

 

The economy grew by a healthy 1.2% in the second quarter of the year, but most analysts predict that in the third it will have expanded by around 0.4%.

 

The gross domestic product (GDP) figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) cover the three months to the end of September.

 

Some economists say the UK has stalled on the back of spending cut threats.

 

Philip Shaw, from Investec Securities, says the prospect of domestic cuts and international uncertainties make it difficult for the UK to "establish proper momentum".

 

'Inevitable bounce'

 

And HSBC analyst, Madhur Jha, says households remain worried about the labour market and wealth from the housing market.

 

"At the same time, they want to pay down debt because of the uncertainty surrounding the future outlook of growth," he says.

 

Consumers may have already been worried about the government cuts, he adds.

 

But Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, warns against reading too much into the third quarter figures, because preliminary ONS estimates can be inaccurate.

 

BBC Radio 5 live's Declan Curry explains just what GDP stands for, and why we should care

 

The BBC's chief economics correspondent, Hugh Pym, says growth was so rapid between April and June that a slowdown seems almost inevitable.

 

The 1.2% rise in economic output in that period was seen by some as an inevitable bounce back after a deep recession, and unlikely to be repeated, he adds.

 

Confidence in the manufacturing and services sectors has dropped due to concerns surrounding the impact of the spending cuts.

 

And weaker-than-expected retail sales figures for September has added to the concerns, with sales slipping 0.2%.

 

Meanwhile, the housing market has also started to suffer. Figures released by the Nationwide Building Society later this week are expected to show a 0.4% fall in property prices between September and October.

 

The third quarter GDP figures are also likely to have a bearing on the Bank of England's plans for quantitative easing (QE) - measures to pump more money into the economy.

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Can you say the words "double dip"? Or "Ireland"?

 

And the cuts haven't even properly kicked in yet....

 

Cameron, Osbourne, Clegg and Cable, please resign... NOW...

 

 

 

Now there is a surprise. First full quarter in Government and the economy slows.

 

The article is quite right in saying that after such a large growth in Q2, there was likely to be some slow down, but i can't imagine they would have expected a 0.8% drop off.

 

The most interesting figures will be those of Q4, we will see if we are on course for a double dip and being drawn back into a very heavy recession or if we are going to miss it by the skin of our teeth

Now there is a surprise. First full quarter in Government and the economy slows.

 

The article is quite right in saying that after such a large growth in Q2, there was likely to be some slow down, but i can't imagine they would have expected a 0.8% drop off.

 

The most interesting figures will be those of Q4, we will see if we are on course for a double dip and being drawn back into a very heavy recession or if we are going to miss it by the skin of our teeth

 

Blaming the drop in growth entirely on the current government is almost as daft as Craig trying to say that the previous increase in growth was entirely due to this government. It is a mixture of measures taken by both the previous government and this one plus external influences. If, OTOH, growth goes negative again in the first quarter of next year while remaining positive in most similar countries, that will be the time when blaming this government would be a lot more legitimate.

Looks like the so called experts were wrong, and GDP grew by 0.8% the 3rd highest quarter for 4 years, after the last quarter which was the highest for about 10 years. So things not so bad atm.

 

Why does everyone on this forum want things to be bad, just cause noo labour got turfed out. They deserved to, they were a shambles and needed a reboot.

 

I say give the coalition a chance, yes they might screw things up, maybe they wont, but 5 months is too short to make that judgement.

I say give the coalition a chance, yes they might screw things up, maybe they wont, but 5 months is too short to make that judgement.

 

"give the coalition a chance"... To do what, exactly..? Destroy public services with cuts that go WAY beyond just "trimming the fat" and getting rid of needless bureaucracy?? Or maybe we should "give the coalition a chance" to put a million people out of work, JUST LIKE FUKKIN' THATCHER DID...... -_-

 

Or maybe we should "give the coalition a chance" to socially cleanse the capital and the large cities of the country of "working class scum" on housing benefit because they lost their fukkin' jobs....

Why does everyone on this forum want things to be bad, just cause noo labour got turfed out. They deserved to, they were a shambles and needed a reboot.

 

Not everyone on this forum is a Labour supporter, and even many of those who are (myself included) don't agree with some of the things that the last Labour government did. The argument saying they needed a reboot is more valid for the actual party, it'll be beneficial for the party in the long run to have a short spell out of power but it's to the counry's detriment because even a disorganised Labour government is better than this coalition.

Not everyone on this forum is a Labour supporter, and even many of those who are (myself included) don't agree with some of the things that the last Labour government did. The argument saying they needed a reboot is more valid for the actual party, it'll be beneficial for the party in the long run to have a short spell out of power but it's to the counry's detriment because even a disorganised Labour government is better than this coalition.

 

Precisely.... Frankly, I'd rather have bloody Broon back than this shower of utter contemptible b'astards we have now... And I tell you one thing, there's not a single person I know who voted Lib Dem in the election that doesn't regret it now...

I have no regrets :P

 

Then again i'm an anomaly as my LibDem MP hasn't done a u-turn on every single one of his views and his morals are still strong and he's fighting for what he believes in and for most area.

Most people don't regret it either around here - but then, Bob Russell's a backbencher, so he can get away with rebellion.

I have no regrets :P

 

Then again i'm an anomaly as my LibDem MP hasn't done a u-turn on every single one of his views and his morals are still strong and he's fighting for what he believes in and for most area.

 

Yeah, well, your MP is Ming Campbell innit.... :lol: So, you probably wouldn't feel quite as dirty....

Yeah, well, your MP is Ming Campbell innit.... :lol: So, you probably wouldn't feel quite as dirty....

Indeed! Mighty Ming is my MP :wub:

 

I always maintained i would vote what would be best for my local area regardless of party affiliations. Holyrood elections affect me far more than Westminster, not many of George's changes affect me. I have to wait until Salmond announces where his axe will fall after having his budget cut by westminster.

Ive noticed this forum seems to worship Labour.

 

Face it, they lost. Most people voted Conservative :cheer: Deal with it and move on

Ive noticed this forum seems to worship Labour.

 

Face it, they lost. Most people voted Conservative :cheer: Deal with it and move on

The Conservatives didn't win either, hence why they're in a coalition. And, for the record, we don't worship Labour - I think you'll find most of us are very critical of some of their actions during the last 13 years.

 

'Deal with it and move on' - oh, ho hum, let's just accept everything that a government does. Yeah, that makes for a great discussion, doesn't it?

Ive noticed this forum seems to worship Labour.

 

Face it, they lost. Most people voted Conservative :cheer: Deal with it and move on

More people voted Tory. Most people didn't.

The Conservatives didn't win either, hence why they're in a coalition. And, for the record, we don't worship Labour - I think you'll find most of us are very critical of some of their actions during the last 13 years.

 

'Deal with it and move on' - oh, ho hum, let's just accept everything that a government does. Yeah, that makes for a great discussion, doesn't it?

 

But no one discusses anything here. They just moan and bitch about everything?

More people voted Tory. Most people didn't.

 

 

Most people didn't vote at all like me because I forgot to register but I would have voted Conservative :cheer:

But no one discusses anything here. They just moan and bitch about everything?

Granted, it may seem a bit one-sided, but we do actually discuss alternatives and cite facts etc. - which certainly counts for discussion. People actually try to bring information to the table, so you can't exactly call it moaning and bitching for its own sake.

Most people didn't vote at all like me because I forgot to register but I would have voted Conservative :cheer:

Actually, there was a 65% turnout - so the majority of people did vote.

Most people didn't vote at all like me because I forgot to register but I would have voted Conservative :cheer:

Turnout was over 60% so most people did vote.

Turnout was over 60% so most people did vote.

 

And out of the people who did vote, Labour recieved less votes than Conservative, thus making Conservative more popular than Labour :cheer: