I can't see Germany winning at all - it's nowhere near as voter friendly as Satellite was. Top ten at best I reckon...

Right, time for the first NOTORIOUSLY inaccurate prediction of how the final will play out:

 

01 · 231 · Azerbaijan

02 · 229 · UK

03 · 225 · France

04 · 158 · Russia

05 · 154 · Sweden

06 · 151 · Bosnia

07 · 124 · Hungary

08 · 116 · Denmark

09 · 099 · Israel

10 · 098 · Finland

11 · 097 · Austria

12 · 083 · Estonia

13 · 075 · Belarus

14 · 074 · Greece

15 · 069 · Germany

16 · 068 · Serbia

17 · 067 · Ukraine [more votes]

18 · 067 · Italy

19 · 064 · Norway

20 · 060 · Slovenia

21 · 052 · Georgia

22 · 046 · Armenia

23 · 045 · Latvia

24 · 038 · Lithuania

25 · 011 · Spain

 

A fair amount of leeway in terms of how this will actually play out as I had to randomise a running order - Azerbaijan bagged themselves the penultimate performance and Hungary got one fairly close to the end, with Norway going on fifth and Armenia third. Overall I think it's a fairly accurate representation of what could end up happening on the night, give or take a few from that top ten...

That top 8 would be incredible (although UK ahead by two points please, I'd die if we were only two points behind the win :drama:), Dana's average song can bugger off and we'll have Nadine in instead, although I'm very aware that even 11th is probably too optimistic for Austria :(

If the UK really do miss out on the win by around 10pts or less :lol: :mellow: :cry: So close, but not managing it - would rather have about 4th and know it wasn't close enough that we could think about 'what if...' - 'what if we performed later, what if Azerbaijan were on 2nd' etc.

If the UK really do miss out on the win by around 10pts or less :lol: :mellow: :cry: So close, but not managing it - would rather have about 4th and know it wasn't close enough that we could think about 'what if...' - 'what if we performed later, what if Azerbaijan were on 2nd' etc.

 

I don't see why Azerbaijan should lose with Always and Drip Drop and then win with this, ok the former was stopped by the all conquering Fairytale but it still could have come 2nd...it was pretty chart friendly/modern and went on to be a big European smash. With the diaspora behind them too, I really thought that it would have got past Yohanna :o

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Running Scared but I just don't see a win for it by any stretch of the imagination, whereas Drip Drop was a potential winner poorly executed and with an unfortunate draw, this could be very well executed and with an amazing draw but I don't see it as a potential winner. If Malta were sending it people would be saying that it would struggle to get out of the semis. I do think Azerbaijan will win within the next five years but I don't think it will be with this. I think this will finish somewhere between 4th and 8th.

Azerbaijan don't have much of a diaspora behind them - any successes they've had have come genuinely from the songs!

No way in hell is Azerbaijan going to win. I really do not see why it screams "winner" in the slightest.

Azerbaijan don't have much of a diaspora behind them - any successes they've had have come genuinely from the songs!

 

Much more of one than a lot of countries. I re-iterate that if Running Scared was performed by the same performers but for Malta, nobody would be predicting it to do overly well. Maybe not dispora, maybe they're just held in higher regard, I don't know? But they have *something*, and it's not just the songs. They have a reputation to maintain I guess, and they know what 'works' and what doesn't, they're definitely the most on the ball ESC country right now I think.

No way in hell is Azerbaijan going to win. I really do not see why it screams "winner" in the slightest.

 

I wouldn't actually be shocked if it mid-tabled it or scraped top ten in the end :o But I'll stick with my 4th-8th prediction as I can pretty much see it picking up 4's 5's and 6's across the board.

I guess one of the reasons I'm seeing Azerbaijan as a potential winner is simply that this year seems wider open. 2009 always had 'Fairytale', and I was always quite confident with 'Satellite' last year. This year, I don't see one entry standing out, so I just list some potentials, 'Running Scared' being one of them.

 

Azerbaijan may be too twee, Sweden may be too poppy, something like Rockerfeller Street is probably a bit too 'different'.

Edited March 18, 201114 yr by Jaack Sykes

not a chance for ajerbaijan to win this contest...

i believe that eshonia s song is much better than all ,the best this year ,

but i dont believe that eshonia will win,

because

last year ,not even lady gaga or the pitbull could win germany ,not because of the song of course ...

that is going to happen this year again with other country

predict which country is ? i believe i have predict it :dance:

 

 

ps .havent you ever wondered ,why they didnt gave us the full results of juries and televoting last year ?

the previus year (2009) they had done it.

maybe ,because the results are not logical ? because lena was between 8th to 10th on televoting :naughty: and 1st to juries :blink: ?

and we are talking for a song that could win only from televoting and not from juries ....

 

 

 

ps .havent you ever wondered ,why they didnt gave us the full results of juries and televoting last year ?

the previus year (2009) they had done it.

maybe ,because the results are not logical ? because lena was between 8th to 10th on televoting :naughty: and 1st to juries :blink: ?

and we are talking for a song that could win only from televoting and not from juries ....

 

They did actually.

 

Lena was first with juries and televoting. Belgium came 2nd with the juries.

 

Not so much of an expert are we...

Maybe he meant the full results of what each countries tele-vote & jury gave to each song. In 2009 we had a spreadsheet for jury results, with all points given, and one for the tele-vote. Couldn't find that last year :unsure:

For me, no song is screaming winner. Could be a close one. Is it just me or do the contests seem to be getting closer and more exciting with every year? (maybe they're not but it feels like it somewhat)

For me, no song is screaming winner. Could be a close one. Is it just me or do the contests seem to be getting closer and more exciting with every year? (maybe they're not but it feels like it somewhat)

 

I feel the exact opposite way. Fairytale was a certainty and landslided it, I always thought that Satellite could probably win it, and indeed it was clear from the halfway mark that she practically had it in the bag. With so many countries voting now, the intense closeness of 1998/2003 seems like it will never happen again sometimes. Sure, it could be this year, but also it wouldn't surprise me to see something like France landslide it.

SWEDEN WILL WIN, YOU HEARD IT HERE SECOND

Are there any sites that are normally accurate with predictions, that are worth keeping an eye on? ESCtoday, Oikotimes, ESCnation, ESCforum?

 

We're currently 4th on the big ESCnation poll that asks for your country, and so works out points. 1st. Estonia 2nd. Hungary 3rd. Sweden

I'm so on Eurovision boat this year that I even read some Russian forums about the UK entry and pretty much everything else. The comments are mixed up to be honest, from obviously

a) "it's excellent, true winner"

to

B) "it's not a winning song but could do well"

or even

c) "they'll be top-10 but on name alone, very average"

 

And I can't tell you what of these comments are prevailing actually, the opinions are quite spread. Although practically no one dislikes the song, "average" is pretty much the lowest rank. But I think UK will have some points from us. And we seem to love France! :o Huge classical roots in our country seem to help 'Sognu' a lot I think. But even then there are quite a few comments like "Opera should stay in Opera" etc.

 

And be ready for another diaspora voting from Russia and all the neighbours. :drama:

Edited March 19, 201114 yr by Arrs

SWEDEN WILL WIN, YOU HEARD IT HERE SECOND

Have you heard any of the other entries?

I doubt it. Only UK, maybe.