I don't mind Estonia, but I do hope it isn't the winner.

What a disastuh:

 

1. Azerbaijan (202)

2. Norway (176)

3. Germany (172)

4. Russia (151)

5. Bosnia Herzegovina (149)

6. Slovenia (142)

7. Turkey (133)

8. France (125)

9. Romania (116)

10. Ireland (109)

11. Estonia (99)

12. Denmark (99)

13. Serbia (95)

14. Spain (90)

15. Sweden (81)

16. Italy (78)

17. Ukraine (68)

18. United Kingdom (68)

19. San Marino (58)

20. Georgia (56)

21. Finland (54)

22. Israel (52)

23. Poland (51)

24. Switzerland (40)

25. Belarus (30)

 

1. United Kingdom (219)

2. Armenia (215)

3. Georgia (213)

4. Bosnia Herzegovina (200)

5. Turkey (156)

6. Slovenia (144)

7. Poland (139)

8. France (129)

9. Estonia (126)

10. Finland (123)

11. Ireland (108)

12. Germany (105)

13. Serbia (89)

14. Azerbaijan (88)

15. Ukraine (68)

16. Macedonia (59)

17. Croatia (55)

18. Belarus (44)

19. Romania (42)

20. Italy (39)

21. Malta (34)

22. Spain (33)

23. Israel (28)

24. Cyprus (20)

25. Hungary (18)

 

lol

at least the UK won :kink:

I'll try and finish adding up all the simulations tonight :)

Lol, i wish...........................

 

1. United Kingdom (313)

2. Norway (233)

3. Finland (208)

4. Armenia (201)

5. Malta (184)

6. Ireland (176)

7. Albania (153)

8. Belgium (145)

9. Turkey (113)

10. Lithuania (107)

11. Serbia (107)

12. Poland (100)

13. Netherlands (96)

14. Bosnia Herzegovina (72)

15. Ukraine (69)

16. Slovakia (52)

17. Switzerland (52)

18. Estonia (45)

19. FYR Macedonia (35)

20. Austria (23)

21. Spain (8)

22. France (2)

23. Italy (0)

24. Bulgaria (0)

25. Germany (0)

I could totally live with Germany scoring nothing and especially a UK win.

 

It's odd that the UK seems to fluctuate so much in this.

Here's a simulation with odds and diaspora on :)

 

 

1. Finland (275)

2. Sweden (248)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (181)

4. Germany (166)

5. Greece (156)

6. Norway (137)

7. Turkey (133)

8. Moldova (121)

9. United Kingdom (112)

10. Azerbaijan (109)

11. Ireland (107)

12. Lithuania (102)

13. Spain (93)

14. Denmark (81)

15. Estonia (79)

16. Romania (72)

17. Serbia (72)

18. Ukraine (62)

19. Italy (46)

20. France (38)

21. Austria (28)

22. Hungary (28)

23. Poland (27)

24. Latvia (11)

25. Switzerland (10)

 

Sorry - double post :)

Edited April 25, 201114 yr by RC741

Here's another:

 

1. Azerbaijan (224)

2. Bosnia Herzegovina (206)

3. United Kingdom (185)

4. France (177)

5. Russia (164)

6. Sweden (157)

7. Belarus (150)

8. Estonia (130)

9. Norway (128)

10. Hungary (118)

11. Romania (118)

12. Armenia (111)

13. Germany (106)

14. Israel (71)

15. Italy (68)

16. Denmark (57)

17. Slovenia (55)

18. Turkey (49)

19. Finland (47)

20. Greece (43)

21. Austria (36)

22. Moldova (35)

23. Spain (30)

24. Lithuania (18)

25. Switzerland (11)

 

Last one for tonight and it was unbelievably close Estonia came through from nowhere to lead with one vote left but a Moldovan 12 to Azerbaijan got it for them. Estonia and UK top 5 :D

 

 

1. Azerbaijan (197)

2. Estonia (191)

3. Iceland (182)

4. United Kingdom (174)

5. Germany (173)

6. Sweden (156)

7. Norway (149)

8. Belgium (130)

9. France (111)

10. Russia (108)

11. Armenia (94)

12. Italy (92)

13. Israel (91)

14. Turkey (80)

15. Hungary (76)

16. Malta (75)

17. Ireland (67)

18. Slovenia (65)

19. Latvia (63)

20. Switzerland (51)

21. Ukraine (44)

22. Austria (42)

23. Denmark (39)

24. Greece (34)

25. Spain (10)

 

1. France (210)

2. Germany (185)

3. Italy (160)

4. United Kingdom (150)

5. Azerbaijan (145)

6. Israel (140)

7. Russia (134)

8. Armenia (132)

9. Sweden (123)

10. Turkey (121)

11. Estonia (113)

12. Bosnia Herzegovina (104)

13. Norway (103)

14. Hungary (92)

15. Denmark (90)

16. Finland (86)

17. Poland (67)

18. Bulgaria (52)

19. Slovenia (51)

20. Austria (49)

21. Portugal (49)

22. Spain (46)

23. Romania (34)

24. Ireland (32)

25. Georgia (26)

 

Did another one based on the odds and diaspora:

 

Semi 1

------

1. Lithuania (161)

2. Poland (100)

3. Turkey (97)

4. Georgia (97)

5. Hungary (91)

6. Armenia (91)

7. Russia (84)

8. Norway (78)

9. Azerbaijan (74)

10. Croatia (65)

~~~

11. Serbia (64)

12. Switzerland (63)

13. Greece (41)

14. Finland (41)

15. San Marino (21)

16. Albania (16)

17. Portugal (16)

18. Malta (12)

19. Iceland (6)

 

 

Semi 2

------

1. Sweden (169)

2. Bosnia Herzegovina (125)

3. Ireland (120)

4. Austria (104)

5. Israel (93)

6. Slovenia (91)

7. Estonia (87)

8. Moldova (84)

9. Ukraine (83)

10. Netherlands (72)

~~~

11. Romania (71)

12. Latvia (64)

13. Slovakia (41)

14. Denmark (29)

15. Belgium (22)

16. FYR Macedonia (15)

17. Belarus (3)

18. Cyprus (2)

19. Bulgaria (1)

 

Final

------

1. Lithuania (307)

2. Germany (223)

3. United Kingdom (186)

4. Georgia (141)

5. Russia (135)

6. Sweden (130)

7. Armenia (128)

8. Bosnia Herzegovina (122)

9. Moldova (114)

10. Ireland (110)

11. Estonia (106)

12. Croatia (84)

13. Turkey (79)

14. Azerbaijan (79)

15. Hungary (74)

16. Norway (74)

17. Ukraine (73)

18. Austria (71)

19. Italy (70)

20. Poland (45)

21. Israel (37)

22. Slovenia (32)

23. Netherlands (32)

24. Spain (31)

25. France (11)

 

So much for dynamic, Lithuania plowed through everything. At some points it looked like Germany would overtake....but in the final quarter Lithuania just sped into the distance.

 

Isn't it odd how France can come 1st in one prediction and then 25th in another?

Edited April 26, 201114 yr by Sabrewulf

I think this simulator should take into account what the songs actually sound like. I'd LOVE Lithuania to win (I loved Manco 2005) but it ain't happening. Am doing another one now, will post it ASAP...

I can only assume there is much less of a variation in places when diaspora is taken out of the equation? I might try that and put my theory to the test.

I should think there would be more :unsure:

 

Anyway I did another with odds and disapora, and it gave the most realistic result yet I think :o

 

SF1

1. Azerbaijan (162)

2. Norway (138)

3. Russia (134)

4. Armenia (115)

5. Hungary (98)

6. Turkey (73)

7. Iceland (71)

8. Finland (66)

9. Albania (66)

10. Greece (63)

11. Georgia (43)

12. Switzerland (35)

13. Croatia (34)

14. Serbia (34)

15. Poland (34)

16. San Marino (21)

17. Lithuania (20)

18. Portugal (11)

19. Malta (0)

 

SF2

1. Sweden (145)

2. Estonia (124)

3. Romania (108)

4. Bosnia Herzegovina (107)

5. Denmark (105)

6. Moldova (102)

7. Ireland (95)

8. Slovenia (71)

9. Netherlands (71)

10. Ukraine (67)

11. Austria (65)

12. Belarus (57)

13. Latvia (55)

14. Slovakia (41)

15. Bulgaria (23)

16. Israel (17)

17. FYR Macedonia (12)

18. Belgium (11)

19. Cyprus (0)

 

Final

1. France (193)

2. United Kingdom (186)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (164)

4. Turkey (158)

5. Sweden (158)

6. Estonia (157)

7. Denmark (128)

8. Ireland (127)

9. Azerbaijan (124)

10. Russia (108)

11. Norway (107)

12. Hungary (106)

13. Armenia (104)

14. Romania (103)

15. Slovenia (94)

16. Germany (87)

17. Albania (65)

18. Iceland (58)

19. Moldova (56)

20. Greece (44)

21. Finland (43)

22. Ukraine (36)

23. Italy (34)

24. Spain (27)

25. Netherlands (27)

 

I could totally see that being the top 5 on the night :o I would be pretty happy with it too :)

I'd be INCREDIBLY unhappy with Turkey going top five.

They always manage to do really well despite often sending crap, I don't think this year is going to be any difference.

I was really talking about the top 3. I'd be unhappy to see Sweden top 5. I also think Azerbaijan and Russia will be 2-3 places higher each.

They always manage to do really well despite often sending crap, I don't think this year is going to be any difference.

I'd like to hope it is - everything they've sent in the last six years has still been a huge cut above this.

What, even HADISE? I actually loved their entry last year, it was in my top 10 so I didn't begrudge them success with it. Shake it up Shekerim was a solid effort too, Deli and Superstar are alright, but yeah better than this years.