Hadise is a LAZY SHIT but I still can't resist having a bit of a mince to Dum Tek Tek.

Yeah but that's just because your a filthy old queen. Plus JARK likes her and as Queen Vanessa L Williams once sang, ''Get the message? NUFF SAID''

Edited April 26, 201114 yr by Johnkm

I should think there would be more :unsure:

 

Anyway I did another with odds and disapora, and it gave the most realistic result yet I think :o

 

Final

1. France (193)

2. United Kingdom (186)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (164)

4. Turkey (158)

5. Sweden (158)

 

I could totally see that being the top 5 on the night :o I would be pretty happy with it too :)

 

Finally coming around to the fact that France DO have a major chance to win this? :P Although if the UK finish 2nd and within 10 points of the winner, I won't get over it for weeks!

 

As for one of your earlier comments, the Lithuanian song has irrationally been growing on me vastly, but it's a good few decades out of date, and doesn't even have Andrew Lloyd Webber backing it up so she's got no chance :( If Nadine Beiler is the candy floss side of Disney balladry, then this is the more serious side of it. It sounds as if it could have been on the Beauty & The Beast soundtrack or something :lol:

Yes I guess so. It really hit me when I saw copies of Rumer's album in my local Tesco that had the sticker from Amaury's album on by mistake... Random as that was, it made me realise that France is fully behind their act this year, and for me that's the big diffierence in between a fan favourite and a song that has potential to go all the way. I think it might honestly be our destiny to come second :kink: Though Peter just posted something on his FB wall that made me think otherwise...

 

And yes I know what you mean about Lithuania, but they have never had good luck in the contest :(

 

This is the song it reminds me of btw...

 

 

:wub:

 

Austria for me is the cheap demo of a rejected Disney song I'm afraid, but Lithuania is the sound of Julie Andrews waltzing with Dick Van Dyke surrounded by animated bluebirds...

1. Estonia (205)

2. United Kingdom (178)

3. Sweden (174)

4. Norway (171)

5. Bosnia Herzegovina (158)

6. Azerbaijan (157)

7. Russia (156)

8. Germany (135)

9. France (99)

10. Italy (94)

11. Denmark (94)

12. Turkey (94)

13. Greece (93)

14. Portugal (90)

15. Armenia (87)

16. FYR Macedonia (87)

17. Ukraine (79)

18. Slovenia (75)

19. Hungary (62)

20. Israel (43)

21. Latvia (41)

22. Georgia (38)

23. Finland (33)

24. Moldova (28)

Yes I guess so. It really hit me when I saw copies of Rumer's album in my local Tesco that had the sticker from Amaury's album on by mistake... Random as that was, it made me realise that France is fully behind their act this year, and for me that's the big diffierence in between a fan favourite and a song that has potential to go all the way. I think it might honestly be our destiny to come second :kink: Though Peter just posted something on his FB wall that made me think otherwise...

 

And yes I know what you mean about Lithuania, but they have never had good luck in the contest :(

 

This is the song it reminds me of btw...

 

 

:wub:

 

Austria for me is the cheap demo of a rejected Disney song I'm afraid, but Lithuania is the sound of Julie Andrews waltzing with Dick Van Dyke surrounded by animated bluebirds...

 

I noticed both of these Facebook related happenings, just didn't quite get round to commenting on them :lol: But right now, and tbh right from the moment the songs were chosen if you look back at my very early predictions, I just can't see past a France/UK top 2, in whatever order. I don't feel that anything else in the contest will quite have the uplift to win, whereas France will have the 'WOW' effect, and the UK have the song with the broadest reach (imo).

 

I was never that big on Tout De Moi, I actually think that this is a far more accomplished example of the genre, but it'll still do sod all :( Whatever you think of Nadine's song, she's got one of the strongest voices in the contest (I was shocked how good she is live when I watched the NF!) and I'm hoping that this will carry her into the final even if the song doesn't. And yes at the Mary Poppins comparisons, I can completely see it!

1. Germany (199)

2. Bosnia Herzegovina (182)

3. Denmark (176)

4. Russia (167)

5. Armenia (161)

6. Sweden (139)

7. Estonia (132)

8. Norway (127)

9. Switzerland (111)

10. Turkey (107)

11. Spain (105)

12. Azerbaijan (103)

13. Ireland (101)

14. Greece (85)

15. France (79)

16. Italy (72)

17. United Kingdom (69)

18. Georgia (68)

19. Slovenia (67)

20. Moldova (49)

21. Poland (46)

22. Israel (46)

23. Ukraine (39)

24. Hungary (39)

25. Romania (25)

 

1. Turkey (208)

2. Sweden (188)

3. Estonia (169)

4. Norway (162)

5. Germany (150)

6. Armenia (148)

7. Azerbaijan (147)

8. United Kingdom (144)

9. Slovakia (125)

10. Romania (116)

11. Russia (113)

12. FYR Macedonia (107)

13. Denmark (101)

14. Finland (101)

15. Slovenia (98)

16. Poland (94)

17. Italy (78)

18. Iceland (47)

19. Austria (45)

20. Ukraine (38)

21. France (37)

22. Spain (22)

23. Belgium (22)

24. Switzerland (21)

25. Georgia (13)

 

This was very dramatic! Estonia were 11 points behind the UK with just Denmark to vote and UK got 0 and Estonia 12! My perfect top 2 - Estonia and the UK :wub:

 

 

1. Estonia (187)

2. United Kingdom (186)

3. Bosnia Herzegovina (176)

4. Sweden (175)

5. Armenia (175)

6. Hungary (163)

7. Norway (155)

8. Italy (129)

9. France (129)

10. Germany (123)

11. Russia (110)

12. Turkey (103)

13. Denmark (101)

14. Lithuania (94)

15. Slovenia (79)

16. Azerbaijan (58)

17. Belarus (56)

18. Ireland (53)

19. Finland (46)

20. Moldova (45)

21. Latvia (39)

22. Austria (37)

23. Poland (35)

24. Spain (20)

25. Serbia (20)

 

Italy is too high, but otherwise I totally beleive that result :o I did another one earlier but it was ridiculous (Netherlands in the top 5!) so I didn't post it :P

Here's another :D

 

 

1. United Kingdom (265)

2. Sweden (232)

3. Germany (213)

4. Armenia (163)

5. Bosnia Herzegovina (158)

6. Serbia (155)

7. Azerbaijan (146)

8. Cyprus (133)

9. Russia (113)

10. Denmark (110)

11. Estonia (107)

12. Hungary (102)

13. Finland (83)

14. Israel (76)

15. Slovakia (71)

16. Poland (60)

17. Greece (51)

18. Latvia (45)

19. Iceland (41)

20. Ireland (37)

21. Switzerland (37)

22. Slovenia (35)

23. Spain (35)

24. Italy (25)

25. France (1)

 

And another :)

 

 

1. Germany (192)

2. Hungary (184)

3. United Kingdom (183)

4. Estonia (179)

5. Denmark (176)

6. Iceland (148)

7. Armenia (147)

8. Bosnia Herzegovina (135)

9. Albania (127)

10. Turkey (116)

11. France (112)

12. Russia (110)

13. Azerbaijan (102)

14. Ireland (73)

15. Romania (68)

16. Serbia (67)

17. Italy (58)

18. Austria (54)

19. Switzerland (52)

20. Slovenia (51)

21. Sweden (49)

22. Israel (33)

23. Belgium (31)

24. Spain (28)

25. Poland (19)

 

Poor Austria, 1 point from Iceland and 2 from Israel

 

1. Slovakia (238)

2. Norway (225)

3. Sweden (172)

4. Albania (157)

5. Denmark (152)

6. Azerbaijan (148)

7. Bosnia Herzegovina (146)

8. Russia (144)

9. United Kingdom (135)

10. Germany (135)

11. Armenia (104)

12. Ireland (102)

13. Turkey (77)

14. Italy (75)

15. Estonia (75)

16. Hungary (71)

17. Finland (68)

18. Poland (51)

19. Moldova (48)

20. Romania (47)

21. Spain (41)

22. Slovenia (41)

23. France (24)

24. San Marino (15)

25. Austria (3)

Final one for tonight :)

 

 

1. France (253)

2. Azerbaijan (168)

3. United Kingdom (166)

4. Sweden (157)

5. Estonia (149)

6. Germany (149)

7. Norway (141)

8. Romania (135)

9. Hungary (132)

10. Denmark (121)

11. Turkey (101)

12. Russia (94)

13. Switzerland (90)

14. Poland (87)

15. Lithuania (83)

16. Bosnia Herzegovina (80)

17. Serbia (70)

18. Italy (63)

19. Netherlands (52)

20. Finland (42)

21. Ukraine (38)

22. Spain (37)

23. Moldova (34)

24. Belgium (26)

25. Ireland (26)

 

I've finished adding up all the simulations - I will post them tomorrow :)

Here's a simulation with odds and diaspora :)

 

 

1. Serbia (229)

2. Azerbaijan (219)

3. Estonia (192)

4. Bosnia Herzegovina (186)

5. Spain (171)

6. Sweden (164)

7. Norway (162)

8. Armenia (146)

9. Hungary (122)

10. Latvia (108)

11. Iceland (95)

12. Russia (93)

13. Germany (91)

14. Italy (83)

15. Turkey (71)

16. France (71)

17. Greece (54)

18. Denmark (52)

19. Belgium (52)

20. Slovakia (32)

21. Slovenia (30)

22. Israel (30)

23. United Kingdom (21)

24. Poland (11)

25. Austria (9)

 

23rd for the UK. Nonsense.

One more...

 

 

1. France (244)

2. Russia (178)

3. Finland (170)

4. Sweden (161)

5. Denmark (160)

6. Estonia (146)

7. Moldova (137)

8. Germany (119)

9. Norway (117)

10. Austria (114)

11. Bosnia Herzegovina (100)

12. Cyprus (99)

13. United Kingdom (95)

14. Azerbaijan (95)

15. Slovenia (93)

16. Hungary (91)

17. Georgia (61)

18. Poland (61)

19. Croatia (51)

20. Ireland (44)

21. Italy (43)

22. Turkey (43)

23. Spain (34)

24. Greece (22)

25. Israel (16)

 

Last one before I post the totals...

 

 

1. Russia (210)

2. Denmark (206)

3. Bulgaria (179)

4. France (158)

5. Slovenia (153)

6. Germany (152)

7. United Kingdom (140)

8. Azerbaijan (140)

9. Moldova (123)

10. Estonia (113)

11. Croatia (103)

12. Serbia (97)

13. Lithuania (95)

14. Armenia (91)

15. Norway (88)

16. Sweden (71)

17. Switzerland (57)

18. Austria (54)

19. Romania (49)

20. Hungary (48)

21. Spain (46)

22. Israel (42)

23. Georgia (35)

24. Italy (31)

25. Ukraine (13)

 

Here are all the simulation scores from the final added up. All simulations that are included were based on current odds and diaspora voting or didn't specify what options were used. Of course, the big 5 have an advantage of being ever-present in the final and these are highlighted in bold. Number of simulation wins are indicated by the red number in brackets. There are 49 simulations in total.

 

01) [7223] France (12)

02) [7168] Estonia (9)

03) [7145] United Kingdom (4)

04) [6987] Azerbaijan (5)

05) [6350] Germany (2)

06) [6277] Bosnia & Herzegovina (3)

07) [5843] Russia (2)

08) [5809] Sweden

09) [5635] Norway (3)

10) [5130] Armenia

 

11) [4428] Denmark

12) [4144] Turkey (3)

13) [3894] Hungary

14) [3280] Finland (1)

15) [3207] Italy

16) [3153] Slovenia

17) [2772] Ireland

18) [2721] Romania

19) [2691] Poland

20) [2347] Spain

 

21) [2310] Israel

22) [2130] Moldova

23) [2092] Serbia (1)

24) [1921] Austria

25) [1735] Greece

26) [1559] Switzerland

27) [1443] Georgia

28) [1380] Ukraine

29) [1190] Malta

30) [1151] Slovakia (1)

 

31) [1106] Croatia (1)

32) [1056] Iceland (1)

33) [963] Lithuania (1)

34) [795] The Netherlands

35) [706] Cyprus

36) [694] Latvia

37) [610] Belgium

38) [548] FYR Macedonia

39) [522] Belarus

40) [502] Albania

 

41) [501] Portugal

42) [412] Bulgaria

43) [291] San Marino

Edited April 28, 201114 yr by RC741