March 20, 201213 yr Author I don't know if you noticed David but he IS in the Balkan-centric semi along with a few countries with high levels of Serbian immigration!
March 20, 201213 yr I don't know if you noticed David but he IS in the Balkan-centric semi along with a few countries with high levels of Serbian immigration! I don't know much about Serbian immigration, not gonna lie. I realise he's in the Balkan-centric semi final, and he's no doubt guaranteed at least 36 points there. Okay, maybe 79 points is a slight underestimate, but I'll stick by it for now!
March 20, 201213 yr Now bearing in mind the running order Semi 2 01 Serbia 02 Macedonia 03 Netherlands 04 Malta 05 Belarus 06 Portugal 07 Ukraine 08 Bulgaria 09 Slovenia 10 Croatia 11 Sweden 12 Georgia 13 Turkey 14 Estonia 15 Slovakia 16 Norway 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina 18 Lithuania I am not sure if it's Lithuania or Bulgaria that is through though. Semi 2 is too tough to call with so many Balkan countries that should in theory vote for each other. You still think the Netherlands will qualify? I don't like the Serbian song but I'm sure it will qualify. I think that FYR Macedonia will bomb and also Malta will be too boring. But Belarus will have a good chance I think. It's the first real uptempo song in the beginning of the show. Portugal don't have spain or switzerland to support them and I think that with the televote it will bomb. Maybe jury will vote for it, but with the 50/50 result I don't think it will be enough to qualify and also it is right after the commercial break. Then there is Ukraine, and they will easily qualify, because it's Ukraine. I just hate Bulgaria and with Slovenia right after it, it just won't qualify. Jury won't go nuts and televote either. Slovenia sounds good and is a nice change for the up tempo songs before it. Then there is Croatia. It can have diaspora voting but I don't think the jury think it's the best in this genre in this semifinal and right after it is favorite Sweden. Sweden will qualiyfy for sure with jury and televote support. Then there is Georgia. I really hate the song but it's Georgia.... I wouldn't be surprised that with diaspora it can make it. But I am really not sure. Jury won't support it I think and Turkey is right after. Turkey will make it for sure with lots of televote support from the netherlands, uk, france, etc. Over to Estonia. I don't like it, but I know a lot of people do. When I look back to 2011 with Rockefeller street barely qualifying because of the judges, I really don't know if they will make it this year. It could get some jury support but I think people consider it to be too boring and there is Bosnia and Serbia... I doubt it will make it. Over to Slovakia. Well.... It's different than the rest of the semi so people might like it. Not sure about this one. It's uptempo and is followed by a popular song from Norway. So I think votes will go to Norway instead. Norway will make it with support from the west and east. Maybe not much support from the jury but enough to go to the top. over to Bosnia... After an uptempo song people will like a ballad I think. and it also is a late draw. and it's bosnia so I think they will make it because there is enough support from the netherlands, uk etc. Finally Lithuania. I like it, even more than bosnia. But will it be anough to go to the top 10? I think it will with the love is blind theme, the up tempo sound and the difference between bosnia and norway. So here is my list of the 10 qualifiers: -Serbia -Belarus -Ukraine -Slovenia -Sweden -Turkey -Norway -Bosnia -Lithuania and then there is one place left.... And I think it could be any song. Though I hope it will be the Netherlands I really think that it could be a shock, maybe Georgia because of diaspora, or Estonia because of jury suppory and swede, norway, belarus voting, or croatia. What are your thoughts?
March 21, 201213 yr I don't think San Marino can pull out anything decent from the bag so here are my predictions: Semi 1 01 Greece 134pts 02 Romania 103pts 03 Denmark 102pts 04 Russia 98pts 05 Iceland 91pts 06 Israel 82pts 07 Ireland 79pts 08 Finland 76pts 09 Cyprus 66pts 10 Hungary 60pts -------------------------- 11 Moldova 58pts 12 Albania 53pts -------------------------- 13 Belgium 41pts 14 Latvia 39pts 15 Austria 29pts 16 Switzerland 27pts 17 San Marino 12pts 18 Montenegro 11pts I think Greece will win this semi they have Cyprus and anyway they are Greece. Maybe I'm overrating the Danish entry (though I don't like it much) but odds are showing the same and we have some Scandinavian countries there so why not. Romania could do well their song is really catchy. Maybe Moldova or Albania can slip into the top 10 somehow beating Cyprus or Hungary ( :( ) Semi 2 01 Sweden 164pts 02 Serbia 136pts 03 Turkey 121pts 04 Norway 112pts 05 Ukraine 96pts 06 Netherlands 85pts 07 Portugal 74pts 08 Slovenia 68pts 09 Bosnia-Herzegovina 63pts 10 Croatia 62pts ------------------------------------ 11 FYROM 54pts ------------------------------------ 12 Estonia 47pts 13 Malta 46pts 14 Lithuania 44pts 15 Bulgaria 37pts 16 Belarus 28pts 17 Slovakia 20pts 18 Georgia 19pts I have no doubt that Sweden and Serbia will top this semi. Turkey have many voters too. Maybe I'm too optimistic about Hungary, sorry for patriotism :P Edited March 21, 201213 yr by ♣ Alex Banan ♣
March 22, 201213 yr Just finished having a listen to the songs in Semi-Final 2 and maybe I'm in loon mode here but I geniuinely only see Sweden winning this semi-final. It's a very hard Semi to predict though as mostly every song has the potential to reach the Final. Turkey, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Malta and Georgia are the clear DNQs in this race for me, while Belarus and Lithuania have middle of the road entries which I can see just making it through with a lot of luck. So that's 01. Sweden ... 12. Belarus 13. Lithuania 14. Turkey 15. Bulgaria 16. Slovakia 17. Malta 18. Georgia The final DNQ spot being a toss over between Portugal and the former Yoguslav republics. In this instance I can see Portugal failing for lack of support, Serbia failing being completely obliterated by an early draw and a superior performance by Estonia, Croatia failing for looking a bit lacklustre after Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina failing for being a tad boring and bland and for being the 50th ballad of the night and FYR Macedonia failing for getting lost in the mix. But it's anyone's game and I'm only confident in Slovenia qualifying. Norway has the stomper so I guess it's more or less guaranteed, Estonia has the beautifully sung male ballad which obliterates Zeljko, Ukraine has the football anthem and Netherlands the quirkiness and the country sing-along number. But really this is anyone's game, and I can see every single one of them making through to the Final (or even surprisingly failing to do so in the case of Norway), except for Georgia and Malta who have abslutely no chance me thinks.
March 22, 201213 yr Author I'm sorry but LOL at the thought that Estonia might 'obliterate' Zeljko, let alone to the point where Serbia might not qualify! Two completely different styles of ballad - and the man's a star! It's a bit like saying Javine would've overshadowed Elena had she gone on after...
March 22, 201213 yr Hmm, having finally heard everything, and assuming San Marino doesn't change much... 1. Greece - 122pts 2. Romania - 110pts 3. Denmark - 102pts 4. Ireland - 100pts 5. Russia - 92pts 6. Iceland - 77pts 7. Moldova - 75pts 8. Israel - 70 pts 9. Cyprus - 65 pts 10. Finland - 64 pts 11. Hungary - 60pts 12. Montenegro - 50pts 13. Latvia - 49pts 14. Belgium - 48pts 15. Austria - 43pts 16. San Marino - 40pts 17. Switzerland - 30pts 18. Albania - 15pts Going from the top of the running order, I think Montenegro could surprise. It's too gimmicky to be forgotten about, and it's opening the show. It certainly won't qualify, but I can see several people getting shocked when it turns out it was only a couple of places away from doing the unthinkable. Iceland are a certainty, sure to be a hit with both the juries and the public (the more discerning ones seeing something good after Euro Neuro), especially with probably 24 points guaranteed from the other two Nordic countries here. Same applies to Greece with 12 points from the off from the Cypriots, and it's a fine pop song and the kind that both sides will love. Latvia is a hard one to call, I'm not sure it'll go down that well, despite being fabulous, they're separated from the other Baltics and I can't see juries or the public going with it, well, actually, I can see Spain and the other Mediterranean countries, but regardless, it should nearly qualify. Albania will sink, I think, coming after Latvia, it's gonna look incredibly depressing, and it isn't a one listen song. Romania I think is a good contender and should go through with ease. Switzerland could do okay, but will likely be propping up the semi with those unpleasant vocals. Belgium will be competing with Finland I think, it won't have any neighbours like Finland, but will appeal to non-neighbours more. As I can't call it I'm hoping that Finland, finishing the first half, will put on a great perf and sail through. Israel have an instantly catchy song, should see them through. San Marino, if it is the Facebook song altered, will flop hard. Cyprus could get overshadowed by Greece, but should receive 12 points in return and coming after San Marino will help its chances. I can't see any situation in which Denmark or Russia won't qualify, Hungary will be touch and go, but I can easily see it squeezing through over something else, most likely Finland or Cyprus. Moldova will get through with big points from Russia, Romania and Latvia, and a few other voters, it has a good slot, and it's catchy too. Ireland are of course a certainty, and likely top 5. It's going to be a close semi, I'm quite sure, so that's why the scores are fairly close together. Semi 2 1. Sweden - 204pts 2. Serbia - 143pts 3. Norway - 123pts 4. Slovakia - 100pts 5. Slovenia - 98pts 6. Netherlands - 90pts 7. Ukraine - 87pts 8. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 70pts 9. Turkey - 62pts 10. Bulgaria - 41pts 11. Portugal - 40pts 12. Croatia - 39pts 13. Lithuania - 38pts 14. Belarus - 35pts 15. Estonia - 30pts 16. Macedonia - 29pts 17. Malta - 17pts 18. Georgia - 11pts Serbia will get through like a breeze, Macedonia will crumble like Albania, although with some support from Serbia maybe, I'd like to think the Netherlands will get though, and coming after two Balkan ballads, it should make people sit up and her costume will help matters. I can't see Malta or Belarus getting through, the latter reminds me of We Are The Winners without the novelty and the former is a non-event. Portugal could qualify but I'd be inclined to say not really, even though it's benefiting from being in the weaker semi, it doesn't have many natural allies. Ukraine will, Bulgaria is borderline, Slovenia and Croatia are helped by being similar and together as far as voting for each other goes, not so much for everyone else, I think Slovenia will get through though. Sweden obviously will. Georgia obviously won't. I can see Turkey getting through to be honest, not so much Estonia, I think that'll get lost in the mix. Slovakia and Norway will stand out and should get through, Bosnia probably will with most of its allies around and a good slot, Lithuania could be a bit bland, but it is finishing the night... The bottom 9 will probably be bunched together, so whoever gets the last qualifying slot will be rather lucky. I'm calling Bulgaria.
March 22, 201213 yr I'm sorry but LOL at the thought that Estonia might 'obliterate' Zeljko, let alone to the point where Serbia might not qualify! Two completely different styles of ballad - and the man's a star! It's a bit like saying Javine would've overshadowed Elena had she gone on after... Well fair enough Zeljko is a big star,but so were Kate Ryan, Evridiki and Dana International. And I didn't find his ballad as great as Estonia's so that's why I predicted it that way. It will still be a huge surprise and disappointment if Serbia fails to qualify, especially with a Jugo-invaded Semi, but I think they have chances both ways.
March 22, 201213 yr I can see it happening. It doesn't have a great slot, I can see it getting forgotten about and I can't think who'd vote for it. I like the song up until she starts screeching, and I think that'll put a lot of people off. If it was translated, it would have a slightly better chance, but as it stands, that's my prediction.
March 22, 201213 yr No way Turkey will fail to qualify... they have Belgium, Netherlands, France, Germany and the UK voting in this semifinal - so that's around 30-40 points guaranteed for them!
March 22, 201213 yr Author Well fair enough Zeljko is a big star,but so were Kate Ryan, Evridiki and Dana International. And I didn't find his ballad as great as Estonia's so that's why I predicted it that way. It will still be a huge surprise and disappointment if Serbia fails to qualify, especially with a Jugo-invaded Semi, but I think they have chances both ways. Difference is though that Kate Ryan, Evridiki and Dana International weren't really big stars in the same way Zeljko is. Probably one of the biggest stars in the Balkans...I don't think you could say the same for any of the others, and that it's a massively Balkan-dominated semi means that I really cannot see any possible way in which he'd not qualify unless the juries inexplicably turned on him. Estonia's ballad's in a very different style and I certainly don't think it's a cert to qualify. I doubt it'd be taking votes off Serbia - if anything, Verjamem would be the track to do that!
March 22, 201213 yr My predictions as of now: Semifinal 1: 01 Montenegro Unluckiest country this year. No allies whatsoever, they're all in Semi 2 - non-qualifier 02 Iceland Bad draw, but with Denmark voting in this semi, they will just breeze through. 03 Greece Cyprus, Albania will help for sure, plus it's catchy so it will qualify for sure. Could even win this semifinal 04 Latvia Some help from Ireland but that's about it. End of the line for Latvia 05 Albania Greece, Switzerland, Montenegro should award points to Albania. Not ruling this out yet although can't see this one having a mass televoting appeal 06 Romania They have Italy, Moldova, Spain, Israel, Greece... how can they fail? 07 Switzerland Can't see this one qualifying, don't know why... (aside from the fact that it's Switzerland) 08 Belgium This will bomb because of... 09 Finland ...this. Both risk cancelling each other out. 10 Israel Pretty different, so even without France, they will qualify 11 San Marino I'd be shocked if this makes it! 12 Cyprus 12pts from Greece, could sneak some votes from the UK and Albania, but it will do a Kati Wolf (qualify and bomb) 13 Denmark Enough support from Iceland, Ireland, Latvia. Juries will like this one and it's doing well in polls! 14 Russia Novelty factor + Russia = guaranteed finalist 15 Hungary Helped by being sandwiched between Russia & Austria. Romania should help. Borderline qualifier (9-11) 16 Austria Lucky draw. Will qualify because of that 17 Moldova Again, draw has been kind to them. Add to that Romania and Russia and they'll qualify (albeit being a borderline one) 18 Ireland Qualifier of course So IMO: Greece Russia Denmark Ireland Romania Israel Iceland Austria Cyprus Moldova _______________ 11th Hungary
March 22, 201213 yr Semifinal 2: 01 Serbia Big star + ex-Yugos = qualifier 02 Macedonia She should get around 40-45 points from ex-Yugos, and Turkey. Probably not enough to make it! 03 Netherlands She could do a Tom Dice and win the whole thing but with such a lousy draw and so many block voting, I'm inclined to think otherwise 04 Malta Who will vote for this?! 05 Belarus First uptempo - that should help, along with Georgia and Ukraine but is it enough to qualify? 06 Portugal Another non-qualifier on the cards for Portugal 07 Ukraine First guaranteed qualifier 08 Bulgaria Will suffer following Ukraine, and can only rely on Macedonia, Turkey and possibly Serbia for votes. 09 Slovenia Qualifier. Can't see why not. 10 Croatia This will sound like Slovenia Part II. It will damage its chances but nonetheless it will score well enough to qualify 11 Sweden I think this is a tad overrated! Probably won't even finish top 2 in the semi but a qualifier that's for sure! 12 Georgia Another qualifier. I guess people are letting hatred blurring the fact that this will have enough support to qualify, sadly 13 Turkey Lucky draw for Turkey. They have Belgium, Netherlands, France, Germany, UK, Macedonia, Bosnia... shall I continue? 14 Estonia Non-qualifier 15 Slovakia Another non-qualifier 16 Norway Qualifier. Only just. 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina Possible winner of this semifinal 18 Lithuania Running order has been kind to this, that's the ONLY reason this stands a chance of qualifying. Turkey Bosnia & Herzegovina Ukraine Sweden Serbia Slovenia Georgia Norway Croatia Lithuania 11. Belarus Eastern Europe will sweep the scoreboard! Edited March 22, 201213 yr by Terence
March 24, 201213 yr Author I really don't see how Georgia can be said to be a very likely qualifier off 'the support' it has. The song DOES have something to do with it otherwise the likes of Latvia 2009/Turkey 2011/Armenia 2011 would have made it by that rationale!
March 25, 201213 yr I didn't know where to ask this so I'll put it here, where is everyone getting the weird cartoon versions of singers? They look cool!
March 25, 201213 yr I didn't know where to ask this so I'll put it here, where is everyone getting the weird cartoon versions of singers? They look cool! Search for Minipop Icons on Facebook, and you'll find them on that page :)
March 30, 201213 yr Author semi one 01 · 150 · Romania 02 · 131 · Greece 03 · 123 · Russia 04 · 120 · Denmark 05 · 90 · Moldova 06 · 81 · Ireland 07 · 76 · Iceland 08 · 71 · Finland 09 · 55 · Hungary 10 · 54 · Cyprus [more votes] - 11 · 54 · Austria 12 · 52 · Montenegro 13 · 52 · Belgium 14 · 38 · Israel 15 · 29 · Latvia 16 · 19 · San Marino 17 · 16 · Albania 18 · 11 · Switzerland The problem with this one is that there are about three to seven really obvious qualifiers (Romania, Greece and Russia are making it through whatever happens, Ireland, Denmark and Iceland are very likely to make it through but could get knocked out in a shock, and Moldova are pretty likely to go through), but beyond that it's quite tough to call the qualifiers. I think the next three slots are likely to go: - Finland OR Belgium. I think it's unlikely both will make it through. Alternatively, they could both cancel each other out and someone else could make it in. - Hungary OR Israel. They aren't too similar but I can see them both vying for jury votes - the issue will be if either of them can cross over to the public. I don't see both of them making it through and think it's quite realistic that neither could end up making it too. - Austria OR Montenegro. It's quite likely neither could make it through but I think they'll both stand out, with it being far more likely Austria will make it through with their late slot. - PERHAPS Cyprus. I'm beginning to think this could perform similarly to Croatia last year. I think Latvia and San Marino are write-offs whatever happens. Albania could make it through on a shock jury surge, as could Switzerland, but I consider it quite unlikely that they'll get through.
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