March 30, 201213 yr Author semi two 01 · 161 · Sweden 02 · 149 · Serbia 03 · 110 · Turkey 04 · 100 · Slovenia 05 · 99 · Norway 06 · 84 · Bosnia 07 · 84 · Lithuania 08 · 63 · Ukraine 09 · 60 · Netherlands 10 · 57 · Estonia - 11 · 56 · Belarus 12 · 38 · Croatia 13 · 36 · Bulgaria 14 · 35 · Macedonia 15 · 30 · Georgia 16 · 27 · Portugal 17 · 17 · Malta 18 · 12 · Slovakia Definites (in order of likelihood to qualify): Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, Norway, Slovenia Very likely qualifiers (barring some sort of massive shock): Bosnia, Ukraine Which leaves us with another three places to fill. I think Lithuania are very likely given they're going on last and the song's up to scratch (I reckon the juries will like it more than enough for it to sail into the final easily), so I've got them in there, but they could equally end up not making it if it fails to connect. This leaves two places. I think Malta, Georgia and Bulgaria are complete write-offs. Slovakia could shock, but I can't see it getting through unless the rock vote is out in force on Thursday 24th. Portugal could make it through but I think they'll find it difficult in a ballad and Balkan heavy semi. Which leaves the Netherlands, Belarus, Estonia, Macedonia and Croatia. I think the fact that this semi is so Balkan heavy means that some will fall by the wayside. Croatia I think will suffer badly from comparison coming straight after Slovenia's mega ballad from the writers of Molitva, and I think Macedonia will find it difficult to connect with Crno i belo, which is quite badly produced and likely to go the same way as most of the cheap rock the Balkans has produced in recent years. Which leaves it between the Netherlands, Belarus and Estonia for the final two spots. Netherlands could go either way but I reckon the same factor that got Switzerland through last year will push the Netherlands in - and I reckon it's a complete toss-up between Belarus and Estonia, with Estonia likely to make it through off their better draw.
March 30, 201213 yr Author final 01 · 238 · Sweden 02 · 237 · Italy 03 · 224 · Russia 04 · 201 · Romania 05 · 132 · Greece 06 · 131 · UK 07 · 107 · Serbia 08 · 100 · Norway 09 · 94 · Slovenia 10 · 93 · Moldova 11 · 91 · Turkey 12 · 88 · Azerbaijan 13 · 77 · Denmark 14 · 72 · Ukraine 15 · 67 · Bosnia 16 · 66 · Lithuania 17 · 57 · Ireland 18 · 51 · Netherlands 19 · 50 · Estonia 20 · 49 · Germany 21 · 46 · Iceland 22 · 41 · Hungary 23 · 39 · Finland 24 · 39 · France 25 · 25 · Spain 26 · 21 · Cyprus
March 30, 201213 yr One point in it :lol: I agree that there won't be a runaway winner this year, but I expect at least a five point gap :lol: Realised that i haven't updated this since the draw, and while I don't have the brainpower to do the points, I will try to do the final... Semi 1 01 Russia 02 Romania 03 Ireland 04 Greece 05 Denmark 06 Iceland 07 Austria 08 Finland --- 09 Israel 10 Cyprus 11 Albania --- 12 Moldova 13 Hungary --- 14 Latvia 15 Belgium 16 San Marino 17 Switzerland 18 Montenegro The draw has really benefited Romania and Ireland, and Greece remains a dead cert, but won't be as high up the pile as it was. I'm borderline on 10/11, I can see Albania being picked by the jury as the wildcard, if they're doing that again this year, despite Cyprus having a bigger share of at least the televote. Little change near the bottom, though Moldova looks SLIGHTLY more likely to make it now, and Belgium and Latvia are dead in the water.... Semi 2 01 Sweden 02 Turkey 03 Serbia 04 Ukraine --- 05 Norway 06 Slovenia 07 Bosnia & Herzegovina 08 Estonia -- 09 FYR Macedonia 10 Belarus 11 Croatia --- 12 Lithuania 13 Bulgaria --- 14 Slovakia 15 Portugal 16 Malta 17 Netherlands 18 Georgia Serbia is obviously going to do very well, but I think with it's poor opening draw Turkey will be ahead of it, and the same goes for Ukraine though I think they're all in the mix. With a later draw Bosnia & Herzegovina now look infinitely more likely and Belarus less, though I think they will still scrape in over Croatia. Lithuania could dark horse it but I kind of hope not :/ As much as I hate it I think Slovakia have a shot with it's decent draw and being the only real rock song in the semi, and sorry Netherlands fans but given it's draw (and the fact it's shite) I just can't see how it's going to make it out of the bottom 3 on the Thursday.
March 30, 201213 yr Author I'm surprised you think Moldova won't make it! I reckon it'll get the same sorts of votes Ovo je balkan got...
March 30, 201213 yr I'm surprised you think Moldova won't make it! I reckon it'll get the same sorts of votes Ovo je balkan got... You may be right, I think it's borderline though given that not much of it's diaspora are represented there. Then again it's probably more accessible than that, and Pasha is waaaaay cuter than Milan :kink: Anyway, here's my predicition for the final: Final 1. Sweden 2. Italy 3. Serbia 4. Russia 5. Romania 6. Turkey 7. Greece 8. Slovenia 9. Spain 10. United Kingdom 11. Azerbaijan 12. Norway 13. Israel 14. Germany 15. Ireland 16. Finland 17. Denmark 18. Cyprus 19. Austria 20. Ukraine 21. Iceland 22. France 23. Belarus 24. Bosnia & Herzegovina 25. Estonia 26. FYR Macedonia It's very hard to say what the draw will be like for the final, but I expect there to be more neighbourly/disapora voting, which is half the reason Slovenia will do better in the final than the semi, added the Radio 2/easy listening factor. I think Russia will appeal a lot to casual viewers too, but will suffer with the juries in the final, having much more to choose from. Italy is definitely the big fiver to watch, though I think Spain will surprise a few, and Germany will do much better than they deserve to with that total snorefest. I think we will scrape the top 10, but we might miss out again, and the Israeli and Cyprus entries will have an added appear for the casual saturday night viewer too.
March 30, 201213 yr Author The Israeli entry isn't exactly one that strikes me as the sort to win over the drunk casual voters on a Saturday night! :lol:
March 30, 201213 yr Ut's rocky, it's a bit weird, and if they wear the clown outfits from the preview video, job done. See Zdub Si Zdob :lol:
March 31, 201213 yr Working it out with points, I got the following for the semi finals: SF1: 166 Denmark 147 Romania 135 Iceland 123 Russia 107 Greece 101 Cyprus 074 Hungary 060 Albania 060 Moldova 052 Finland --- 044 Latvia 034 Switzerland 031 Ireland 031 Austria 030 Israel 017 Belgium 005 San Marino 001 Montenegro SF2: 190 Sweden 134 Serbia 123 Ukraine 111 Norway 095 Turkey 073 Estonia 066 Slovenia 063 Lithuania 054 Bosnia-Herzegovina 049 Netherlands --- 044 Belarus 043 Croatia 037 Bulgaria 033 Slovakia 032 Malta 032 Macedonia 026 Portugal 012 Georgia I think Ireland might struggle actually :o
March 31, 201213 yr Author Rambo Amadeus is HUGE in the Balkans (I think he was one of the creators of turbofolk or something?), there's no way he's only getting one point!
March 31, 201213 yr Rambo Amadeus is HUGE in the Balkans (I think he was one of the creators of turbofolk or something?), there's no way he's only getting one point! Huge in the Balkans or not, I think you're forgetting Montenegro is pretty much the only Balkan country in Semi 1, not counting Greece and Albania.
March 31, 201213 yr Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Spain, Belgium, Latvia (+ Romania in the semi) I was just checking who gave points to Jedward last year and those are in the same semi this year so I reckon they could come around 8th again with them remaining pretty stable in the final. Obviously this doesn't take into account who they are up against in semi 1 & who they were up against last year, and the novelty may have worn off [although the last contest will have helped them gain more fans] but I think 'Waterline' has a different appeal, some people seem to be liking it that didn't like 'Lipstick' last year. From Semi 1; Iceland Greece Romania Finland [over Belgium] Cyprus [not too close to Greece, follows Valentina and is straight before a ballad] Denmark Russia Moldova Ireland Latvia or Albania for the final spot Semi 2; Serbia Netherlands Ukraine Slovenia Sweden Turkey Estonia Norway Bosnia-Herzegovina Lithuania Lot harder to predict, more borderline qualifiers and I've decided that I prefer the first semi.
March 31, 201213 yr semi one 01 · 150 · Romania 02 · 131 · Greece 03 · 123 · Russia 04 · 120 · Denmark 05 · 90 · Moldova 06 · 81 · Ireland 07 · 76 · Iceland 08 · 71 · Finland 09 · 55 · Hungary 10 · 54 · Cyprus [more votes] - 11 · 54 · Austria 12 · 52 · Montenegro 13 · 52 · Belgium 14 · 38 · Israel 15 · 29 · Latvia 16 · 19 · San Marino 17 · 16 · Albania 18 · 11 · Switzerland The problem with this one is that there are about three to seven really obvious qualifiers (Romania, Greece and Russia are making it through whatever happens, Ireland, Denmark and Iceland are very likely to make it through but could get knocked out in a shock, and Moldova are pretty likely to go through), but beyond that it's quite tough to call the qualifiers. I think the next three slots are likely to go: - Finland OR Belgium. I think it's unlikely both will make it through. Alternatively, they could both cancel each other out and someone else could make it in. - Hungary OR Israel. They aren't too similar but I can see them both vying for jury votes - the issue will be if either of them can cross over to the public. I don't see both of them making it through and think it's quite realistic that neither could end up making it too. - Austria OR Montenegro. It's quite likely neither could make it through but I think they'll both stand out, with it being far more likely Austria will make it through with their late slot. - PERHAPS Cyprus. I'm beginning to think this could perform similarly to Croatia last year. I think Latvia and San Marino are write-offs whatever happens. Albania could make it through on a shock jury surge, as could Switzerland, but I consider it quite unlikely that they'll get through. I think we're all (myself included) being a bit too quick to assume that Greece are going to do fantastically and Cyprus pretty average to be honest. Last year proved that you can have some major shocks, and on the whole, Ivi is getting a better reaction than the Greek girl. I need to have a re-assess of my semi finals. semi two 01 · 161 · Sweden 02 · 149 · Serbia 03 · 110 · Turkey 04 · 100 · Slovenia 05 · 99 · Norway 06 · 84 · Bosnia 07 · 84 · Lithuania 08 · 63 · Ukraine 09 · 60 · Netherlands 10 · 57 · Estonia - 11 · 56 · Belarus 12 · 38 · Croatia 13 · 36 · Bulgaria 14 · 35 · Macedonia 15 · 30 · Georgia 16 · 27 · Portugal 17 · 17 · Malta 18 · 12 · Slovakia Definites (in order of likelihood to qualify): Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, Norway, Slovenia Very likely qualifiers (barring some sort of massive shock): Bosnia, Ukraine Which leaves us with another three places to fill. I think Lithuania are very likely given they're going on last and the song's up to scratch (I reckon the juries will like it more than enough for it to sail into the final easily), so I've got them in there, but they could equally end up not making it if it fails to connect. This leaves two places. I think Malta, Georgia and Bulgaria are complete write-offs. Slovakia could shock, but I can't see it getting through unless the rock vote is out in force on Thursday 24th. Portugal could make it through but I think they'll find it difficult in a ballad and Balkan heavy semi. Which leaves the Netherlands, Belarus, Estonia, Macedonia and Croatia. I think the fact that this semi is so Balkan heavy means that some will fall by the wayside. Croatia I think will suffer badly from comparison coming straight after Slovenia's mega ballad from the writers of Molitva, and I think Macedonia will find it difficult to connect with Crno i belo, which is quite badly produced and likely to go the same way as most of the cheap rock the Balkans has produced in recent years. Which leaves it between the Netherlands, Belarus and Estonia for the final two spots. Netherlands could go either way but I reckon the same factor that got Switzerland through last year will push the Netherlands in - and I reckon it's a complete toss-up between Belarus and Estonia, with Estonia likely to make it through off their better draw. Don't think Turkey will do that well, and I genuinely think Bosnia-Herzegovina are going to do better than that. Good position in the semi final, and I really think it's a fantastic ballad! I do prefer Slovenia's though... Can pretty much see the rest happening though, apart from Serbia doing that well. Shit position to sing from, average song, ageing singer... The fact he's big in the Balkans will be enough to ensure he eases through though of course. final 01 · 238 · Sweden 02 · 237 · Italy 03 · 224 · Russia 04 · 201 · Romania 05 · 132 · Greece 06 · 131 · UK 07 · 107 · Serbia 08 · 100 · Norway 09 · 94 · Slovenia 10 · 93 · Moldova 11 · 91 · Turkey 12 · 88 · Azerbaijan 13 · 77 · Denmark 14 · 72 · Ukraine 15 · 67 · Bosnia 16 · 66 · Lithuania 17 · 57 · Ireland 18 · 51 · Netherlands 19 · 50 · Estonia 20 · 49 · Germany 21 · 46 · Iceland 22 · 41 · Hungary 23 · 39 · Finland 24 · 39 · France 25 · 25 · Spain 26 · 21 · Cyprus Hmm...definitely can't see Spain doing that badly, I can actually see them amongst the top five - at least - this year! I absolutely love the Italian entry, but I'm beginning to think Nina might also have to settle for a mid top ten position at the moment. I think Romania will do similarly to France in 2010, so can't see them getting over 200 points at all myself, and I can see Cyprus and Greece taking more votes from each other. The draw will be key to how well they do, as well as their live vocals. Balkan votes are going to cancel each other out slightly, so I agree with some of those positions. Can't see Serbia finishing higher than seventh really... And I'd be VERY pleased if the United Kingdom were to finish that high. I just can't work out how we're going to do at all! Oh and Sweden. I really can't see it winning, but then I don't know what else will. I put a bet on Spain yesterday, so perhaps they could spring a surprise on us?!
March 31, 201213 yr Author Huge in the Balkans or not, I think you're forgetting Montenegro is pretty much the only Balkan country in Semi 1, not counting Greece and Albania. Er, hence why I said he's definitely not getting just one point!
March 31, 201213 yr Rambo Amadeus is HUGE in the Balkans (I think he was one of the creators of turbofolk or something?), there's no way he's only getting one point! He'll be lucky to get that. I can see Albania giving it something, mainly because their votes are always pretty unusual, but nobody else is going to award it anything. He was huge in Yugoslavia, yes, but there are no other former Yugoslavian countries in his semi! Just because Greece happens to be located to the south, doesn't mean they're anymore likely to vote for it.
March 31, 201213 yr Just because Greece happens to be located to the south, doesn't mean they're anymore likely to vote for it. That's what I was talking about in the post above.
March 31, 201213 yr I'm not convinced Italy will do as strongly this year as they did last year. Though I imagine they'll still make the top ten. I just can't help but feel a lot of votes for Italy came from people who were like "OMIGAD ITALY IS BAAAAACK" people. Not to mention the fact that when I feel Italy is better this year than last year that alone is bound to cause them to do worse. :manson: Edited March 31, 201213 yr by Sabrewulf
April 1, 201213 yr hello everyone i am back .... my predictions so far RUSSIA sure in the first 10 according to the song and diaspora ,but not the winner SWEDEN sure in the first 10 according to the song and might be the winner SERBIA sure in the first 10 according to the song and diaspora CYPRUS big surprize SPAIN big surprize NORWAY big surprize UN KINGDOM not even in the first 10 DENMARK might be in the first 4 ITALY might win according to the last years welcome ,if not this year sure the next year IRELAND not even first 10 GREECE (my country) hardly for the first 10 this year Edited April 1, 201213 yr by ESC EXPERT new
April 1, 201213 yr SWEDEN sure in the first 10 according to the song and might be the winner Well that's surely the kiss of death for Loreen :drama: 15th here she comes...
April 1, 201213 yr Well that's surely the kiss of death for Loreen :drama: 15th here she comes... Tbh she is going to have so many kisees of death in the coming weeks (Retro Bar etc etc) that she's going to be barely alive come Baku :lol:
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