May 12, 201312 yr I just can't see Estonia having a hope on Tuesday. A very pleasant but middle of the road song performing 2nd (supposedly the death slot) and will likely have been forgotten by most voters by the time the last song has been performed. It couldn't possibly have much more going against it. On one hand I feel bad for Estonia....but on the other hand they only have themselves to blame for not picking Grete Paia instead. Edited May 12, 201312 yr by Sabrewulf
May 12, 201312 yr The second spot in the semi final has actually provided quite a large number of qualifiers in the past (since the dual semi format was introduced), so isn't quite the "death slot" it's made out to be. Stuff that's drawn in the middle of the running order tends to be the least luckiest draw wise in the semis.
May 12, 201312 yr Author First Semi-Final 01 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 02 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia 03 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 04 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 05 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland 06 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands 07 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium 08 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova 09 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia 10 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria ----- 11 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro 12 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus 13 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus 14 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia 15 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia 16 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania Second Semi-Final 01 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 02 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia 03 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece 04 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland 05 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 06 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria 07 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland 08 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland 09 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia 10 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania ----- 11 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino 12 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 13 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta 14 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel 15 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 16 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania 17 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia
May 12, 201312 yr Just for fun I'm going to predict using random.org. It will be more accurate than me predicting myself. :P First Semi-Final 01. Slovenia 02. Cyprus 03. Lithuania 04. Ukraine 05. The Netherlands 06. Austria 07. Belarus 08. Russia 09. Serbia 10. Estonia ---------- 11. Belgium 12. Croatia 13. Ireland 14. Denmark 15. Montenegro 16. Moldova Second Semi-Final 01. F.Y.R. Macedonia 02. Norway 03. Israel 04. Finland 05. Iceland 06. Latvia 07. Azerbaijan 08. Bulgaria 09. San Marino 10. Greece ------------- 11. Malta 12. Armenia 13. Romania 14. Hungary 15. Albania 16. Georgia 17. Switzerland
May 12, 201312 yr OH MY. My Moopy sweepstake and my Buzzjack sweepstake winning the semi's? :o IF ONLY.
May 12, 201312 yr :lol:, I've just watched the full rehearsals from the first semi final and my opinion has completely changed again! Talk about wide open this year!
May 13, 201312 yr First Semi-Final 01. Moldova 02. Denmark 03. Ukraine 04. Russia 05. The Netherlands 06. Montenegro 07. Belarus 08. Ireland 09. Serbia 10. Croatia -------------- 11. Austria 12. Estonia 13. Slovenia 14. Cyprus 15. Belgium 16. Lithuania In theory Moldova should take this Semifinal by storm but due to a lot of contenders (Denmark, Russia, Ukraine) all being in the same Semi, one may start doubting it'll happen. Having not seen any of the rehearsals of this Semi apart from Montenegro and Moldova's I can't really fully be sure anything will happen but if the public (and the juries) have any sense they will favour O Mie. This has Yohanna written all over it. The question is whether we'll have a Rybak this year. I still find Denmark's success with the bookies a bit odd and have a feeling it might do an Amaury Vassili in the end. On the other hand the overwhelming Denmark win in the OGAE voting makes me doubt me doubting that Denmark can win this. Oh well, I wouldn't mind either of these songs winning tbh. Resting on a gimmick Ukraine should sail through through televoters. Same with Russia and juries. The Dutch song is pretty unpredictable to me at the moment. Anouk is very likely to do a Kaas but with more exposure (Semis AND a Final, if she qualifies) it might even have a shot for the Top 5. Seriously have no idea about this one. Montenegro will go through as televoters will eat this up so easily. Plus it's guaranteed the Balkan support so should settle in a lower half of the Top 10. Belarus will attract televotes, plus being in the same Semi with BOTH Ukraine and Russia is always a bonus. I hope Alyona qualifies just for the mere fact that I won't have to read all the 'omg everyone hates Belarus we never go through it's all political lasha tumbai!!!1' on the forums. Ireland will collect enough support from everywhere but will probably absolutely CRASH in the Final. Serbia and Croatia will go through by the Balkan vote at the expense of Austria and Estonia. Slovenia isn't strong enough to win enough televoters plus it's really not a jury material so no chances here unfortunately. Cuprus will be a snoozefest, Belgium - forgettable and Lithuania - hot mess, as usual. Perhaps Lithuania won't finish at the bottom since ex-USSR countries are likely to give them a slight advantage with a neighbourly vote but I don't think it'll change much.
May 13, 201312 yr Revised semi predictions from me. Semi 1 01. Ukraine 02. Denmark 03. Netherlands 04. Russia 05. Moldova 06. Ireland 07. Serbia 08. Croatia 09. Montenegro 10. Estonia -------------------- 11. Belarus 12. Austria 13. Lithuania 14. Belgium 15. Slovenia 16. Cyprus The top 6 will get support from both televoting and juries whereas Serbia & Montenegro will get the televote support and Croatia & Estonia the jury support. Belarus will just miss out. Lithuania, despite being the worst song here, will get support from a few countries but not enough to qualify. All of Slovenia's votes will go to Ireland. Cyprus has a good draw but there's far too many stronger ballads here so will surely come towards the bottom. Semi 2 01. Norway 02. Georgia 03. Azerbaijan 04. Greece 05. Bulgaria 06. Iceland 07. San Marino 08. Armenia 09. Finland 10. Israel ---------------- 11. Romania 12. Malta 13. Albania 14. Switzerland 15. Hungary 16. Macedonia 17. Latvia I'm finding semi 2 much harder to predict. Norway and Georgia will be the top 2 though I'm almost sure of that. Azerbaijan and Greece will no doubt do well as always. I'm sure and hopeful of San Marino qualifying, easily their best entry yet. Finland, Israel, Romania and Malta are all borderline for me, any could make it. Edited May 13, 201312 yr by AdamAloud
May 13, 201312 yr Second Semi-Final 01. Norway 02. Georgia 03. Iceland 04. Switzerland 05. Azerbaijan 06. San Marino 07. Israel 08. F.Y.R. Macedonia 09. Bulgaria 10. Romania ---------------- 11. Greece 12. Finland 13. Albania 14. Armenia 15. Hungary 16. Malta 17. Latvia Now this Semi is a lot trickier since there are not a lot of favourites and lots of unpredictable songs. Once again, IN THEORY we should see a Berger win but with Georgia in the way and people still remembering the Ell & Nikki's success (I hope NOT though oops) it might be problematic. However I'm fairly certain this will be the Top 2 in the end either way. Iceland will absolutely win the juries over, in my opinion. I'm actually quite glad this song was chosen to represent the country now as it's one of the very few songs in the NF that stood a chance of finishing in the top half of the Final, or at least qualifying. The only problem is that televoters might find it boring which even I did after I heard it for the first time. So I may be WAY off with this prediction. Switzerland will probably receive a lot of 'edgier' votes even though it's a pop song in general - it just has this vibe, reminding me a lot of Bosnia & Herzegovina in 2009 actually. Azerjaba... azerja... Baku will do well too, to no one's surprise. I might be underpredicting this one as no doubt Azerbaijan aren't going to suddenly start doing bad (i.e. not finishing in the Top 10). It's their first all-male act since 2008 (which is their worst result as well oops) so we'll see what happens really. Even Armenia's Top 10 streak didn't last forever. Unless Valentina starts doing those CRAZY EYES again, I believe San Marino will have no trouble qualifying this time around, to flop miserably in the Final, along with Ireland. Classy as always (except for last year OOPS) Israel should do rather well, or at least just qualify. Macedonia might actually win over some votes because Esma is so damn amazing. Juries will like it as well, I believe. Bulgarian entry will barely qualify due to the past glories. I'm past pretending the iconic Elitsa & Stoyan will trouble the Top 20 - better not set myself up for certain failure. The song is good but not as nearly as good as Water, and everyone will know that. Romania's screeching vocals will attract voters and some will definitely vote for it 'for funz'. Plus closing the Semi is almost (HAI The Toppers) always a good thing. again, 9th and 10th places can easily be swapped with Greece, Finland or Albania, depending on how well 5 songs are performed. The four countries I don't see qualifying at all are Armenia, Hungary, Malta an Latvia. Latvia are way too generic in their way to stand out, Malta are too boring and very second( / THIRD)-hand Finland 2011 and Belgium 2010, Armenia are... male (and not even with a wimpy ballad) and Hungary are a bit too out there really (although last year's song was as well and it still qualified).
May 13, 201312 yr Isn't Greece one of the most obvious qualifiers in there? HONESTY Pavz (and much as I love Moldova there is no way at all that she's beating Denmark)
May 13, 201312 yr My Final Predict : Top 10 positions order is not impotant, so... [semifinal 1] : [Q] Russia [Field is very ex-Soviet and ex-Yugo, so I think, that Russia and Ukraine will the most successful countries in this semifinal] [Q] Ukraine [Most lucky and overrated ESC country. Always sent shit, but had impressive results] [Q] Denmark [bookmaker favourite. In pre-Internet era I didn't say, that she will qualified, but now we all know so much about artists chances before competition] [Q] Moldova [Nice voice. Juries will love her] [Q] Croatia [Dark horse of this semifinal. Here is some Ex-Yugo countries. One or two from them do it well. Croatia have the most chances in my opinion] [Q] Slovenia [Dance trash have much more chances, than nice ballads] [Q] Ireland [Now it's hard to predict another results. Mainstream song for top 40 chart lovers] [Q] Belgium [it's nice to be a man in ladies semifinal. Second positive surprise] [Q] Estonia [it's Iris - 2012, but here is one difference : Birgit is pregnant. It can be cute for European housewives, which always were the impotant auditory for Eurovision] [Q] Netherlands [Negative surprise. 10 place and only some points difference between her and 11 place] 11. Lithuania [Most dangerous competitor for Anouk] 12. Serbia [Girlbands are not a good choice for ESC. With male singer this song could have nice result. Their sexy image is contrast with song] 13. Cyprus [boring for televoters and not so impressive for juries] 14. Austria [Huge flop. Nothing intresting in this song. Go home after semifinal] 15. Belarus [Chanceless, even can be last, if ex-Yugo countries will vote for neighbours more, than ex-Soviet] Last place : Montenegro [Even worse, than in previous year. Not zero points, but only because traditional Ex-Yugo countries support on ESC] Summary : First 4 countries are 100 % qualifiers Next 5 countries are very possible qualifiers Fight between Lithuania and Netherlands for last 10 place. Serbia have a little chance Austria and Cyprus don't have, but wouldn't on the last place. Belarus and Montenegro are hopeless bottom 2.
May 13, 201312 yr My Final Predict : Top 10 positions order is not impotant, so... [semifinal 1] : [Q] Russia [Field is very ex-Soviet and ex-Yugo, so I think, that Russia and Ukraine will the most successful countries in this semifinal] [Q] Ukraine [Most lucky and overrated ESC country. Always sent shit, but had impressive results] [Q] Denmark [bookmaker favourite. In pre-Internet era I didn't say, that she will qualified, but now we all know so much about artists chances before competition] [Q] Moldova [Nice voice. Juries will love her] [Q] Croatia [Dark horse of this semifinal. Here is some Ex-Yugo countries. One or two from them do it well. Croatia have the most chances in my opinion] [Q] Slovenia [Dance trash have much more chances, than nice ballads] [Q] Ireland [Now it's hard to predict another results. Mainstream song for top 40 chart lovers] [Q] Belgium [it's nice to be a man in ladies semifinal. Second positive surprise] [Q] Estonia [it's Iris - 2012, but here is one difference : Birgit is pregnant. It can be cute for European housewives, which always were the impotant auditory for Eurovision] [Q] Netherlands [Negative surprise. 10 place and only some points difference between her and 11 place] 11. Lithuania [Most dangerous competitor for Anouk] 12. Serbia [Girlbands are not a good choice for ESC. With male singer this song could have nice result. Their sexy image is contrast with song] 13. Cyprus [boring for televoters and not so impressive for juries] 14. Austria [Huge flop. Nothing intresting in this song. Go home after semifinal] 15. Belarus [Chanceless, even can be last, if ex-Yugo countries will vote for neighbours more, than ex-Soviet] Last place : Montenegro [Even worse, than in previous year. Not zero points, but only because traditional Ex-Yugo countries support on ESC] Summary : First 4 countries are 100 % qualifiers Next 5 countries are very possible qualifiers Fight between Lithuania and Netherlands for last 10 place. Serbia have a little chance Austria and Cyprus don't have, but wouldn't on the last place. Belarus and Montenegro are hopeless bottom 2. Where on earth could anyone BEGIN?! That said I love that housewives are apparently a KEY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC
May 13, 201312 yr Where on earth could anyone BEGIN?! That said I love that housewives are apparently a KEY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC Be glad Estonia is not a '100% qualifier'. :o
May 13, 201312 yr About 40 predictions later, I've finally settled on the following for the semi finals: Semi Final 1: 01 Denmark 02 Russia 03 Ukraine 04 Moldova 05 Croatia 06 Netherlands 07 Ireland 08 Serbia 09 Cyprus 10 Lithuania 11 Belarus 12 Estonia 13 Belgium 14 Slovenia 15 Montenegro 16 Austria Semi Final 2: 01 Georgia 02 Azerbaijan 03 Greece 04 Norway 05 Albania 06 Iceland 07 Bulgaria 08 Israel 09 Malta 10 Romania 11 Armenia 12 Finland 13 Hungary 14 FYR Macedonia 15 Switzerland 16 San Marino 17 Latvia
May 14, 201312 yr Semi One 01 Denmark 02 Ukraine 03 Russia 04 Netherlands 05 Estonia 06 Moldova 07 Lithuania 08 Serbia 09 Ireland 10 Belarus --- 11 Croatia 12 Montenegro 13 Austria 14 Slovenia 15 Belgium 16 Cyprus 9/10 :funky: what the hell at Belgium though, and I didn't have Serbia as a dead cert so I'm very pleased with my predictions!
May 15, 201312 yr 8 / 10 for me. Croatia was robbed. Still think, that Netherlands and Lithuania were # 9 - # 10
May 15, 201312 yr 9/10 for this semi final (I didn't post my predictions here but on another site). I only had Montenegro down instead of Lithuania. Very surprised at the latter qualifying.
May 15, 201312 yr Even if nobody don't care about it, but here is my predict. [semifinal 2] : [Q] : Norway [Q] : Azerbaijan [Q] : Iceland [Q] : San Marino [Q] : Greece [Q] : Georgia [Q] : Latvia [Q] : Switzerland [Q] : Finland [Q] : Romania Another countries : 11. Israel 12. Malta 13. Bulgaria 14. Hungary 15. Macedonia 16. Armenia 17. Albania Edited May 15, 201312 yr by AlexRange
May 15, 201312 yr The others I could see but Latvia? What demographic is voting for that? (Love it myself but I gave in to it having no hope ages ago)
May 15, 201312 yr I have no doubt about Israel qualifying at all! It's the most obvious qualifier for me with Azerbaijan and Norway. I'm gonna post my predictions after tomorrow's SF (of course before the votes are revealed) because that worked well last night too ;)
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