Well not really - it's recognising that our poll lead in the short-term is soft. The aim isn't to improve short term polling, but to improve it in the long-term with a view to the election when people are more likely to seriously consider what makes a government that can handle the economy. This wasn't to try hike up short term ratings from 39 to 44 - this was to hike up the election result from 33 to 38. In any case, it's not that 'nothing we say' has an effect - people are probably vaguely aware of what our position was before now as it bled through repeatedly over two years that we were in favour of more short-term borrowing. I'm saying that one announcement doesn't really get noticed unless it's hammered in again and again.

 

...then it's failed on its own terms, since they're clearly further away from winning an election now than they were a month ago. I'm sorry, but this is inherently contradictory, you can't ascribe any "soft" poll lead with their previous policy being unpopular, and then say another drop in their poll numbers has nothing to do with their policy. (And it's not just the raw opinion polls that have dropped over the past month either: Labour have been doing worse on the specific questions about the economy too.) As I said in that thread a few weeks ago, this is mirroring exactly what's happened with the SPD in Germany: the more they agreed with Merkel that austerity was necessary in an attempt to get the mythical "credibility", the more their ratings sunk as people asked what the point of voting for them was.

 

If anything, the trouble is that the public might not believe it and think we're just saying it to get in. The Tories are well aware of this - it's why they didn't crow 'they've accepted our argument!' as you'd expect as a reaction to the headline summary of the commitment and are spinning relentlessly that Miliband and balls are just saying this to get elected and aren't to be trusted - because they know that has far more resonance than conceding that it's a responsible move.

 

The Conservative leadership have shown themselves to be idiots and quite possibly the worst political strategists of alltime, so if anything I'd say the fact they think it "has resonance" should be the biggest warning-sign of all.

Edited July 12, 201312 yr by Danny

If anything, the trouble is that the public might not believe it and think we're just saying it to get in. The Tories are well aware of this - it's why they didn't crow 'they've accepted our argument!' as you'd expect as a reaction to the headline summary of the commitment and are spinning relentlessly that Miliband and balls are just saying this to get elected and aren't to be trusted - because they know that has far more resonance than conceding that it's a responsible move.

Whereas, of course, Osborne's "promise" not to increase taxes after the next election is completely different. Anybody who thinks that "promise" is worth any more than their previous promises not to increase taxes is displaying an astonishing degree of naïvete.

...then it's failed on its own terms, since they're clearly further away from winning an election now than they were a month ago. I'm sorry, but this is inherently contradictory, you can't ascribe any "soft" poll lead with their previous policy being unpopular, and then say another drop in their poll numbers has nothing to do with their policy. (And it's not just the raw opinion polls that have dropped over the past month either: Labour have been doing worse on the specific questions about the economy too.) As I said in that thread a few weeks ago, this is mirroring exactly what's happened with the SPD in Germany: the more they agreed with Merkel that austerity was necessary in an attempt to get the mythical "credibility", the more their ratings sunk as people asked what the point of voting for them was.

 

As I said earlier, Labour's poll numbers have been dropping since January. There's little great difference between our numbers before the announcement and after the announcement. And I'd say it's far more likely we're doing worse on specific questions about the economy as the economic situation is starting to improve - economic confidence (as measured by the YouGov question of whether people think their personal economic circumstances will get better or worse over the next year) is currently at its highest level since April 2010.

 

The Conservative leadership have shown themselves to be idiots and quite possibly the worst political strategists of alltime, so if anything I'd say the fact they think it "has resonance" should be the biggest warning-sign of all.

They fucked up their strategy big-time in the lead up to 2010 and viciously retoxified in response to the financial crisis - but don't underestimate them with Crosby on board. If anything, given how proud they are (they'd have been desperate to try and make the 'they've accepted the Conservative facts of life why not vote for the real thing!!!' argument) I wouldn't be surprised at all if their current strategy trying to make out that Labour are only promising this to get elected didn't come straight from him.

 

And, tactically speaking, it makes far more sense for them to go with that than with the crowing option. I can think of worse political strategists.

Whereas, of course, Osborne's "promise" not to increase taxes after the next election is completely different. Anybody who thinks that "promise" is worth any more than their previous promises not to increase taxes is displaying an astonishing degree of naïvete.

Well, quite. Tax rises will be inevitable after the next election given the amount of funding gaps about unless whoever's in charge is happy to accept the consequences of starting to cut into bone when it comes to state spending.

Thankfully, it looks like commonsense has prevailed:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/d...s-party-funding

 

Hopefully, the Labour leadership learn the lesson and never get panicked into such a ridiculous move based on a few days' bad headlines in the Westminster village (with precisely noone outside of it caring) ever again.