Overall sales seem to have declined significantly, especially since the halfway point of 2013 - see my graph :

 

http://www.vidcapper.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/WeeklySingles.gif

Edited October 26, 201311 yr by vidcapper

Yeah, we're consistently quite a bit below 2012 levels every week now (so it wasn't a one-off coincidence).

 

Someone said there's a phone company which gives out free Spotify subscriptions? Maybe that's something to do with it. Also, I heard that there's this iTunes radio thing that's recently come out, so perhaps some people are using that (hence downloading less). Download sales were always going to peak eventually, but the drop has been more sudden and sharp than I would've expected it to be.

Yeah, we're consistently quite a bit below 2012 levels every week now (so it wasn't a one-off coincidence).

 

Someone said there's a phone company which gives out free Spotify subscriptions? Maybe that's something to do with it. Also, I heard that there's this iTunes radio thing that's recently come out, so perhaps some people are using that (hence downloading less). Download sales were always going to peak eventually, but the drop has been more sudden and sharp than I would've expected it to be.

 

I think the recent slump is down to the fact there's nothing out at the moment that's got the hype of the high sellers from earlier in the year (i.e Daft Punk, Avicii, Robin Thicke, etc...). I should imagine that sales will pick up again on the way up to Christmas.

Yeah, we're consistently quite a bit below 2012 levels every week now (so it wasn't a one-off coincidence).

 

Someone said there's a phone company which gives out free Spotify subscriptions? Maybe that's something to do with it. Also, I heard that there's this iTunes radio thing that's recently come out, so perhaps some people are using that (hence downloading less). Download sales were always going to peak eventually, but the drop has been more sudden and sharp than I would've expected it to be.

 

I've just been doing some more checking, and the really alarming area of decline is in sales outside the top 200 - they've dropped over 20% since the start of the year! :o

Usually they pick up around this time with the X Factor in full swing, I haven't seen nothing yet that could set the singles chart alight unless Lady Gaga does something spectacular tomorrow. The release schedule for singles is looking a bit poor for releases in the next few weeks, I can't see anything big, until December with the Xmas releases. I just think we had the 3 big singles from Daft Punk, Avicii and Robin Thicke, makes me think that artists are getting a bit lazy now to release something big plus we are only 2 months away till the end of the year.

People need to realise that what's happening at the very top of the chart is largely irrelevant to trends like this. Even if 'Get Lucky' and 'Blurred Lines' were out right now, we'd probably be below 2011 levels. One or two mega hits should not mask a decline as a whole anyway.

 

As vidcapper says, it's really worrying that sales outside the top 200 (which one would assume would be constant) are dropping so rapidly. That has to be a trend, and we can only hope that it doesn't continue for too long (or at least slows down a lot).

 

I am pretty sure that we'll never get a year with sales higher than 2012 again, but I can only hope we don't drop below 2009 levels in the near future at least.

Usually they pick up around this time with the X Factor in full swing, I haven't seen nothing yet that could set the singles chart alight unless Lady Gaga does something spectacular tomorrow. The release schedule for singles is looking a bit poor for releases in the next few weeks, I can't see anything big, until December with the Xmas releases. I just think we had the 3 big singles from Daft Punk, Avicii and Robin Thicke, makes me think that artists are getting a bit lazy now to release something big plus we are only 2 months away till the end of the year.

 

ISTM it is something more fundamental than just a dearth of big new releases - besides, that would affect the *top* of the chart, not outside the T200. Sales inside the T200 have declined by only about 5% this year, and in the upper regions, thay have, if anything, increased slightly.

 

Either people have finally had their fill of oldies, or Spotify and other sites have taken that share of the market?

I think the recent slump is down to the fact there's nothing out at the moment that's got the hype of the high sellers from earlier in the year (i.e Daft Punk, Avicii, Robin Thicke, etc...). I should imagine that sales will pick up again on the way up to Christmas.

 

A Blurred Lines-sized hit wouldn't change anything. Some weeks we're 10%+ lower than last year. We're getting like 10 new entries in the top 40 this week, and we'll still probably be lower than 2012's levels (last week we were only slightly above 2009 and 2010 sales levels according to vidcapper's graph).

 

The songs high up the chart aren't significant in this situation. It's the songs lower down the chart which make up the majority of the sales, and they've decreased sharply for some reason. For example, if Counting Stars sold 200,000 last week, it would've still been a decline over last year.

and it could also be two of my constant whinges kicking in (for new product): record companies holding back releases in the Uk long after the rest of the world, so people get fed up waiting for it (despite big pent-up first week sales). A quick look at biggest-sellers of the year show that getting to number one is frequently irrelevant to long-term sales, but that seems to be the main aim of everyone. My other regular moan is Radio One. Most singles buyers listen to radio one and it's getting more and more niche, records with wide appeal get put on Radio 2, so the singles chart looks more and more like a dance chart combined with a sprinkling of TV reality pop stars. The less broad appeal of the UK Top 40 the less people want to listen to it.

 

For oldies, though, it's more puzzling, so it may be the Spotify effect biting into catalogue sales. That and the fairly limited outlets to introduce or reintroduce buyers to classic oldies....

 

Obviously the market cant grow forever though so there will come a plateauing/dropping at some time.

and it could also be two of my constant whinges kicking in (for new product): record companies holding back releases in the Uk long after the rest of the world, so people get fed up waiting for it

 

There's a few reasons I disagree with this. Firstly, new releases only make up a tiny proportion of sales each week. Secondly, record companies were using that same release strategy for years in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 (and before) too, and they all saw increases in sales compared to their previous years. Thirdly, in the US everything is on air, on sale, and they're also seeing a decrease in sales compared to the previous year nearly every week (infact, for them it started happening in 2012, whilst in the UK this only started happening in the past couple of months).

ISTM it is something more fundamental than just a dearth of big new releases - besides, that would affect the *top* of the chart, not outside the T200. Sales inside the T200 have declined by only about 5% this year, and in the upper regions, thay have, if anything, increased slightly.

 

Either people have finally had their fill of oldies, or Spotify and other sites have taken that share of the market?

 

I see what you mean, its what Umi hit on, without going into much detail again

 

Music Week ran an article about this a couple of months ago and pointed out that sales in the top end of the chart are still continuing to increase. I suppose it was inevitable that sales of older tracks would decrease at some point. If you look at the top 20 there are newer tracks in there with even the top 40 having fewer old songs hanging around. In a way it's quite healthy to see newer songs dominating the chart rather than oldies hanging around all the time.

Spotify!

 

I dont even bother illegaly downloading things now. I use Spotify.

and it could also be two of my constant whinges kicking in (for new product): record companies holding back releases in the Uk long after the rest of the world, so people get fed up waiting for it

Nope.

 

I'm inclined to think that it's a law of diminishing returns as regards trickle sellers, but I have to wonder why it's kicking in so rapidly after being a non-factor for quite a while. I can't imagine Spotify would suddenly go from not being a particularly big influence to causing such a big downturn in a matter of months either.

There's certainly been a lack of new strong material around over past couple of months but I think also people are feeling the effect of wage freezes and higher costs for petrol, food and energy bills.

There's certainly been a lack of new strong material around over past couple of months but I think also people are feeling the effect of wage freezes and higher costs for petrol, food and energy bills.

If anything economic conditions are better now than they have been over most of the last four years. It wouldn't make sense for that to be a factor that kicked in this summer when the peak has been when it was even worse. In any case, people don't tend to hold back on purchases for things that are 79/99p when their wages are squeezed so much - which is my own personal theory for the decline of album sales and the increase in singles sales since the beginning of the recession (mixed with the rise of Spotify et al).

 

I think vidcapper et al are right in saying this trend will have very, very little to do with the subjective quality of music in the charts currently given a large proportion of the fall is down to the decrease in sales outside the top 40/200. Has anybody got any info on any sudden spikes in Spotify membership/usage over the last few months? I'm near certain it'll be a switch to streaming over purchase that'll be causing the change rather than anything else.

 

Or, on my theory that recessions = bad for album sales and good for single sales (and vice versa), does anybody know if album sales have been trending upward over the last few months above what we'd expect anyway going towards Christmas?

That said, looking at vidcapper's graph, there's a chance it could just be a reversion to form given it's just an eight week blip and 2013 has performed roughly on par with 2012's massive figures for most of the year anyway and stayed above 2011 for all but the last eight weeks. I'm inclined to think it'll be something short term like the Spotify phone deal someone mentioned earlier.

If anything economic conditions are better now than they have been over most of the last four years. It wouldn't make sense for that to be a factor that kicked in this summer when the peak has been when it was even worse. In any case, people don't tend to hold back on purchases for things that are 79/99p when their wages are squeezed so much - which is my own personal theory for the decline of album sales and the increase in singles sales since the beginning of the recession (mixed with the rise of Spotify et al).

 

I think vidcapper et al are right in saying this trend will have very, very little to do with the subjective quality of music in the charts currently given a large proportion of the fall is down to the decrease in sales outside the top 40/200. Has anybody got any info on any sudden spikes in Spotify membership/usage over the last few months? I'm near certain it'll be a switch to streaming over purchase that'll be causing the change rather than anything else.

 

Or, on my theory that recessions = bad for album sales and good for single sales (and vice versa), does anybody know if album sales have been trending upward over the last few months above what we'd expect anyway going towards Christmas?

 

Economic conditions such as growth have improved but there certainly isn't a feel good factor and most people's incomes have been squeezed considerably over the past 6 months by wage freezes and price rises. I agree albums are more likely to be effected but I do think its had some impact on singles as well. People cut back on non-essentials such as entertainment when times are hard.

 

 

 

 

Economic conditions such as growth have improved but there certainly isn't a feel good factor and most people's incomes have been squeezed considerably over the past 6 months by wage freezes and price rises. I agree albums are more likely to be effected but I do think its had some impact on singles as well. People cut back on non-essentials such as entertainment when times are hard.

Yeah, but what I'm saying is that times have been hard for the last five years. It doesn't make sense to cite it when accounting for a trend which has only started in the last couple of months given single sales are now performing worse than all the way through 2012, when economically conditions were broadly more difficult than they are now.

Macro economics may say that the economy is growing (slightly) but personal finances are as bad as they have been for several decades, and getting worse as income increases are still a long way below inflation. Disposable income is still getting squeezed hard.