I can vote in East Midlands, West Midlands and Scotland. Mess. Scotland look to be losing their Lib Dem and maybe the Conservative MEP, but whether these two go to the SNP, Greens or UKIP remains to be seen.

 

But it's SO good to not have a 2/3/4-party system. So much choice!

I highly doubt that UKIP is getting anywhere near a seat up here. Their chief f***tard Farage came up here a few months ago to talk about the rise of UKIP in Scotland and how popular they were here. They were hounded out quite definitively.

 

Thanks to the land owners and St Andrews, my constituency has one of the largest concentration of Tory voters in the central belt. UKIP lost their deposit here in 2011 at the Scottish election and the 2010 UK election. They have so very little support here. Their primary message of leave the EU is pointless up here because we actually want to stay.

Yeah, Ukip aren't getting anywhere in Scotland or Wales. It's the one thing that makes it likely Labour will get the most seats even if Ukip get the most votes.

Labour, surprise surprise. I'll be voting in the North West as I applied for a postal vote for the locals and automatically get it for the Europeans as well - making it bit awkward when I turn up to the polling station in Sheffield and can only vote in one of the two elections.

 

It does mean I can help to kick out Nick Griffin, though.

Yeah, Ukip aren't getting anywhere in Scotland or Wales. It's the one thing that makes it likely Labour will get the most seats even if Ukip get the most votes.

 

I can actually see UKIP potentially doing quite well in Wales. Demographically it's quite similar to places like Yorkshire or the Midlands which are UKIP heartlands: very white, very working-class, quite socially conservative, mining towns which generally remain very economically-depressed and resentful of both Labour and the Tories (partly because Labour's public-sector jobs boom didn't really reach places like that) and so are eager to make a protest vote against the whole system. It's just a question of whether UKIP's Englishness overrides those advantages.

 

London will probably be the second-least UKIP-friendly part of the UK (ahead of only Scotland). It's full of demographics who would never vote UKIP: the super-rich who are happy with the Conservatives and probably don't want to leave the EU, ethnic minorities who don't vote UKIP for obvious reasons, middle-class liberal Guardianistas who detest everything UKIP stands for.

I can actually see UKIP potentially doing quite well in Wales. Demographically it's quite similar to places like Yorkshire or the Midlands which are UKIP heartlands: very white, very working-class, quite socially conservative, mining towns which generally remain very economically-depressed and resentful of both Labour and the Tories (partly because Labour's public-sector jobs boom didn't really reach places like that) and so are eager to make a protest vote against the whole system. It's just a question of whether UKIP's Englishness overrides those advantages.

That's possible. The big problem is there haven't been many tests in Wales where we could get a bit of evidence either way - they didn't have county council elections last year, so the only two elections we've had since the rise of UKIP have been a by-election in the more deprived bit of Cardiff in November 2012 (at the same time as the Corby by-election, which was the best result for UKIP to date votes-wise at that point IIRC) and a Welsh Assembly by-election in Anglesey in February last year. They were a distant fifth with 6% in the Cardiff by-election and a really distant third with 14% in Anglesey. They could possibly get a European seat in Wales but I see them getting one seat in London anyway.

Not a good 24 hours for the Ukip campaign. One of their potential councillors, who featured in their TV advert campaign has been suspended for allegedly making racist comments on Twitter towards both Nigerians and Muslims, plus bizarrely claimed that Ed Miliband is Polish. Somewhat ironically, said candidate was born in Zimbabwe. On top of that, another person featured in the advert was revealed to be an Irish actor, whom I'm guessing would be considered foreign in Ukip's eyes.

 

Nigel Farage's response this morning was the same as usual - apologizing for the mix-up, claiming that the party doesn't have the monopoly on idiots, and once again bringing up a Liberal Democrat councillor who was allegedly found guilty of a racially aggravated assault.

 

I doubt it will have much effect on their campaign though.

A YouGov poll now puts UKIP 3% ahead, after this week's attempts by the media to smear them predictably backfired. Given UKIP are always underestimated in the polls, methinks it's game over

 

Now the most interesting aspect of these elections is the battle for 4th/5th place between the Lib Dems and the Greens.

A YouGov poll now puts UKIP 3% ahead, after this week's attempts by the media to smear them predictably backfired. Given UKIP are always underestimated in the polls, methinks it's game over

 

Now the most interesting aspect of these elections is the battle for 4th/5th place between the Lib Dems and the Greens.

Methinks it's one poll and you're overreacting, again.

I've tended to have the impression that Ukip have been purposely "bigged up" in the media so that the public perception is that there's no way that they will not top the European Poll in May, then when they don't (I still think even now Labour will clinch it), it will be regarded as a massive failure.

I've tended to have the impression that Ukip have been purposely "bigged up" in the media so that the public perception is that there's no way that they will not top the European Poll in May, then when they don't (I still think even now Labour will clinch it), it will be regarded as a massive failure.

It's getting to the stage where I'm sure some people will be convinced that they can make a significant impact in terms of seats in 2015 because of the way the media is portraying them. It works both ways - if they don't match up to these inflated standards then it'll look like a failure, but the exposure makes them more likely to do it.

 

Still don't think they'll win a seat.

I've tended to have the impression that Ukip have been purposely "bigged up" in the media so that the public perception is that there's no way that they will not top the European Poll in May, then when they don't (I still think even now Labour will clinch it), it will be regarded as a massive failure.

 

It would be pretty much unprecedented for UKIP to UNDERperform their standing in the opinion polls. In all the by-elections and local elections in recent years, they have performed much better in the elections themselves than in the opinion polls leading up to it. There's possibly a "Shy Kipper" factor, where people are too ashamed to admit to opinion-pollsters that they're voting for them, but then in the privacy of a polling booth it's a different story.

 

As things stand, if things carry on the course they are now, I don't see anything stopping them winning. The only thing that could change it is Farage himself making a major gaffe, or the media and/or the other parties actually finding a line of attack that works. Accusing them of being racist, or the Clegg-like metropolitan sneers that anyone who wants to leave the EU is a small-minded bigot, is absolutely not the way to go because it just reaffirms their status as outsiders fighting the hated "politically correct" Establishment. And stories about his private life look like desperate smears.

 

What COULD work is exposing Farage as the snobbish turbo-charged-Tory that he is. He has been worryingly effective at pitching himself as "champion of the working class"--many current UKIP voters in the north and midlands are people whose blood is still sent boiling at the mention of Thatcher's name. If I was in the Labour "high command", I would be doing NOTHING for the next few weeks except trawling through all of Farage's past interviews, articles, Question Time appearances, not to mention the 2010 UKIP manifesto, and picking out all his statements about Thatcher being the greatest prime minister of his lifetime, his southern snobbishness towards the north and benefit-claimants, his call for even more spending cuts than the Tories want, the 2010 UKIP pledge to destroy the "wasteful" NHS and privatise it. Getting it across that he's a rich elitist with Tory, anti-working class economic policies is what will hurt him since that is genuinely unknown among much of the public (whereas UKIP being small-minded Little Englanders and bigots is already well-known and priced into people's perceptions).

Edited April 27, 201411 yr by Danny

I agree on how he should be targeted to an extent (although there's not a lot in throwing the 2010 manifesto at him as it's already been done and he claimed he had nothing to do with it, what with not being leader at the time) but more needs to be done in the long run to actually sell the EU as a good thing to the general public rather than just launching (albeit justified) personal attacks at Farage.

Pro-Europeans have done a terrible job in selling their case for decades. I suspect many of the older pro-Europeans thought their job had been done in the 1975 referendum and some of the younger ones thought the case for the EU was so obvious it didn't need to be made. The anti-EU brigade have been able to peddle their myths without being seriously challenged. After all, one of the first things many anti-Europeans will bring up is often the straight bananas story - a total fabrication.

It would be pretty much unprecedented for UKIP to UNDERperform their standing in the opinion polls. In all the by-elections and local elections in recent years, they have performed much better in the elections themselves than in the opinion polls leading up to it. There's possibly a "Shy Kipper" factor, where people are too ashamed to admit to opinion-pollsters that they're voting for them, but then in the privacy of a polling booth it's a different story.

 

As things stand, if things carry on the course they are now, I don't see anything stopping them winning. The only thing that could change it is Farage himself making a major gaffe, or the media and/or the other parties actually finding a line of attack that works. Accusing them of being racist, or the Clegg-like metropolitan sneers that anyone who wants to leave the EU is a small-minded bigot, is absolutely not the way to go because it just reaffirms their status as outsiders fighting the hated "politically correct" Establishment. And stories about his private life look like desperate smears.

 

What COULD work is exposing Farage as the snobbish turbo-charged-Tory that he is. He has been worryingly effective at pitching himself as "champion of the working class"--many current UKIP voters in the north and midlands are people whose blood is still sent boiling at the mention of Thatcher's name. If I was in the Labour "high command", I would be doing NOTHING for the next few weeks except trawling through all of Farage's past interviews, articles, Question Time appearances, not to mention the 2010 UKIP manifesto, and picking out all his statements about Thatcher being the greatest prime minister of his lifetime, his southern snobbishness towards the north and benefit-claimants, his call for even more spending cuts than the Tories want, the 2010 UKIP pledge to destroy the "wasteful" NHS and privatise it. Getting it across that he's a rich elitist with Tory, anti-working class economic policies is what will hurt him since that is genuinely unknown among much of the public (whereas UKIP being small-minded Little Englanders and bigots is already well-known and priced into people's perceptions).

That is what Labour will be doing. You'll notice Labour figures are conspicuous by their absence from the commentary on most of the stories this week - linking him with Thatcher and NHS privatisation/scrapping maternity pay is the line we're going with.

On seats, I'm inclined to think Farage will win whichever seat he stands in eventually, and that they might nab a seat or two by sneaking through the middle in Tory/Labour races where Tories have a fairly strong majority, but I can't see them getting more than five seats.

 

At which point I look forward to Ukip jumping on the proportional representation train :D

That is what Labour will be doing. You'll notice Labour figures are conspicuous by their absence from the commentary on most of the stories this week - linking him with Thatcher and NHS privatisation/scrapping maternity pay is the line we're going with.

 

Interesting. Have they dug out some direct quotes, maybe some video clips of him saying these things? I feel like the typical UKIP voter is so distrustful of the media, they would need to hear/see it come from Farage's lips to believe it.

 

In any case, I'm glad they seem to have finally woken up to the threat UKIP pose to them. For too long, they seemed to be complacently hoping UKIP stayed high because of the incorrect assumption that they only took votes off the Tories.

I wonder if the one person who chose the "Conservative" option in the above poll would like to make themselves known? I promise I'll be nice. :)

That is what Labour will be doing. You'll notice Labour figures are conspicuous by their absence from the commentary on most of the stories this week - linking him with Thatcher and NHS privatisation/scrapping maternity pay is the line we're going with.

 

And that's another thing added to my list of "Things I learned about Ukip today that I'm incredibly uncomfortable with".

Interesting. Have they dug out some direct quotes, maybe some video clips of him saying these things? I feel like the typical UKIP voter is so distrustful of the media, they would need to hear/see it come from Farage's lips to believe it.

 

In any case, I'm glad they seem to have finally woken up to the threat UKIP pose to them. For too long, they seemed to be complacently hoping UKIP stayed high because of the incorrect assumption that they only took votes off the Tories.

I can't talk too in-depth on precise strategy but I imagine video evidence should play a part.

 

From what I know, TPTB aren't too worried about UKIP next year for that reason - they take some votes off us but far more from the Conservatives (4/5 for every one they take from us while growing). The more Labour can launch the Thatcher broadside though then the more that should hopefully collapse to something like 10:1.

I'll be voting SNP so had to choose 'Other' in your poll. Think/hope they'll do well.

 

Can't see UKIP doing overly much up here. Thankfully.

 

-_-