May 21, 201411 yr Can't be bothered working out how it translates into seats, but percentage-wise: UKIP 30% Conservatives 24% Labour 22% Greens 12% Lib Dems 5% Others 7% The fall cometh for Ed Miliband on such results.
May 21, 201411 yr Votematch for the European elections: http://uk.votematch.eu/ I matched up best with the Conservatives, on a total of 18/30 (just one point ahead of Labour) :drama: No idea how that happened. Wasn't expecting it to get it right, but it matched me with Lib Dems (21/30).
May 21, 201411 yr PR Squared for our electoral system NOW Aside, when people predict Others who do they think will make it? I was including NI for the lols.
May 21, 201411 yr Can't be bothered working out how it translates into seats, but percentage-wise: UKIP 30% Conservatives 24% Labour 22% Greens 12% Lib Dems 5% Others 7% The fall cometh for Ed Miliband on such results. Well, we'll see - but I think you know this one's wishful thinking.
May 21, 201411 yr Well, we'll see - but I think you know this one's wishful thinking. Which - Labour coming third or Miliband being ousted?
May 21, 201411 yr Which - Labour coming third or Miliband being ousted? Well, both - but more Labour coming third. There's only been one poll out of the dozens we've had in the last month that's had Labour behind the Tories, or within the margin of error of 22%. For our turnout to be that low and for all the polls to be that far out (also given a big number of the votes have already been cast by post) would be pretty unprecedented in the modern polling era, especially given Labour's commonly acknowledged to have the best ground operation of all the major parties - it's the thing that got us as many as 258 seats on a vote share as disastrous as 29% in 2010.
May 21, 201411 yr Well, both - but more Labour coming third. There's only been one poll out of the dozens we've had in the last month that's had Labour behind the Tories, or within the margin of error of 22%. For our turnout to be that low and for all the polls to be that far out (also given a big number of the votes have already been cast by post) would be pretty unprecedented in the modern polling era, especially given Labour's commonly acknowledged to have the best ground operation of all the major parties - it's the thing that got us as many as 258 seats on a vote share as disastrous as 29% in 2010. But Labour have consistently underperformed their polls for the past few years because they do such a terrible job of enthusing their supporters and motivating them to turn out. And even though only one poll has had them in third place, most of the other polls the last couple of weeks have had them barely ahead of the Conservatives, well within the margin of error. Believe it or not, I hope I'm proven wrong on this. Edited May 21, 201411 yr by Danny
May 21, 201411 yr Australia is also bloody miles away from everywhere though. Besides, it works both ways. British citizens are able to go anywhere else in the EU just as freely. I suggest you do so. No thanks. I'm quite happy here thank you very much. :)
May 21, 201411 yr But Labour have consistently underperformed their polls for the past few years because they do such a terrible job of enthusing their supporters and motivating them to turn out. And even though only one poll has had them in third place, most of the other polls the last couple of weeks have had them barely ahead of the Conservatives, well within the margin of error. Believe it or not, I hope I'm proven wrong on this. What evidence do you have that the party can't turn its supporters out?
May 21, 201411 yr What evidence do you have that the party can't turn its supporters out? The fact that in every set of local elections since 2010, Labour have performed well under their standing in the opinion polls at the time, and the same for most byelections (even Corby, the one they won, their increase of 9% was much less than would be indicated by their poll ratings in the mid-40s at the time).
May 21, 201411 yr I'll predict: Labour 24 / 29% UKIP 20 / 28% Conservatives 17 / 23% Lib Dems 4 / 7% Greens 3 / 5% SNP 3 Northern Irish parties 3 Plaid Cymru 1 Nothing for any of the numerous non-UKIP rightwing nutjob parties, and I'm being possibly stupidly optimistic in thinking that the UKIP vote won't quite go the whole way, mainly because this seems to be being publicised far more than previous European elections. I'm pretty sure the South-West at least will be overrun by them.
May 21, 201411 yr But Labour have consistently underperformed their polls for the past few years because they do such a terrible job of enthusing their supporters and motivating them to turn out. And even though only one poll has had them in third place, most of the other polls the last couple of weeks have had them barely ahead of the Conservatives, well within the margin of error. Believe it or not, I hope I'm proven wrong on this. It isn't the case at all that 'most of the other polls' have had Labour barely ahead of the Conservatives or 'well within' the margin of error - in most of them we've had a 4/5 point lead minimum, with the occasional three point gap on the edge of the margin of error and one freak poll which had the Conservatives in the lead.
May 22, 201411 yr I highly doubt that UKIP is getting anywhere near a seat up here. Their chief f***tard Farage came up here a few months ago to talk about the rise of UKIP in Scotland and how popular they were here. They were hounded out quite definitively. But Scotland has the benefit of a well established nationalist party (as does Wales), so UKIP is effectively the English nationalist party. What I find ironic is that nationalism is apparently OK for the Scots & Welsh to express, but if England tries it, they are 'bigots & racists'. :rolleyes:
May 22, 201411 yr I'll predict: Labour 24 / 29% UKIP 20 / 28% Conservatives 17 / 23% Lib Dems 4 / 7% Greens 3 / 5% SNP 3 Northern Irish parties 3 Plaid Cymru 1 I'll say : UKIP 29-33% Lab 23-27% Con 19-23% LD 10-14% Greens 4% Others 7%
May 22, 201411 yr But Scotland has the benefit of a well established nationalist party (as does Wales), so UKIP is effectively the English nationalist party. What I find ironic is that nationalism is apparently OK for the Scots & Welsh to express, but if England tries it, they are 'bigots & racists'. :rolleyes: Ok you did not just compare the SNP to UKIP. I know you aren't that mentally deficient.
May 22, 201411 yr Ok you did not just compare the SNP to UKIP. I know you aren't that mentally deficient. What on earth is 'mentally deficient' about comparing one country's nationalist party to another's?
May 22, 201411 yr Because you are comparing apples and f***ing skyscrapers that's why. I genuinely don't see how - to me, the only difference is the name of the 'scapegoat' : to Scots, it is the English - to the English, it is the EU. And please try not to swear, it doesn't add to your credibility.
May 22, 201411 yr I honestly, genuinely, don't understand the virtually unanimous hatred for Nigel Farage here on BJ. He doesn't strike me, my family or people I know as being racist at all and talks a lot of sense. Maybe if you lived here in East London where we have tons of asylum seekers and other immigrants who get all the council houses you'd see how he talks what people born and bred here, and not just white people either, are thinking. He seems like a top bloke too who can relate to the ordinary man or woman in the street or pub. Can you say that about Cameron, Clegg or Miliband? Nigel should be an MP sooner rather than later. Actually this country would be far better if he was PM and UKIP in Government. Edited May 22, 201411 yr by Common Sense
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