http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27208966

 

Former Tory MP, now independent will resign from his post in the next few minutes after allegations of asking questions for money have resulted in a six month suspension. The statement is about to start on the news now.

 

Nigel Farage has said he is seriously considering standing if the by-election occurs after the European Elections. Although, I didn't think UKIP had a strong base in Newark.

As Farage is presumably expecting still to be an MEP for South East England after 22 May then announcing his interest in standing in a byelection in Nottinghamshire seems rather odd. Newark was one of the surprising Labour gains in 1997 but the Tory majority at the last election was just over 16,000.

Boris should stand and get back in to parliament.

Ooh, a by-election. I love me one of those!

 

UKIP polled less than 4% in this constituency in the general election, with the Conservatives polling more that 50%. Even if Farage does stand, I doubt even he could overturn such a massive different, surge or no surge.

Boris should stand and get back in to parliament.

Let's hope he does and then gets heavily defeated. There are plenty of people questioning whether it would be right for him to attempt to be an MP for a constituency outside London as well as London Mayor for as long as 12 months. If he tried to do that for almost two years the reaction would be even stronger.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/u...rcer-quits.html

 

Robert Jenrick is expected to be Conservative candidate. It won't be Boris Johnson.

 

Personally, I'd love a Boris v Nigel battle, but that's highly unlikely at this stage.

Ooh, a by-election. I love me one of those!

 

UKIP polled less than 4% in this constituency in the general election, with the Conservatives polling more that 50%. Even if Farage does stand, I doubt even he could overturn such a massive different, surge or no surge.

If they're taking votes directly from the Tories they could very conceivably defeat them. They've surged to ~30% from a standing start before.

 

Of course, the other scenario is that Labour sneak through the middle while that's happening.

Ooh, a by-election. I love me one of those!

 

UKIP polled less than 4% in this constituency in the general election, with the Conservatives polling more that 50%. Even if Farage does stand, I doubt even he could overturn such a massive different, surge or no surge.

 

But they were coming off a similarly low start in Eastleigh, and they came close to winning that. And Hampshire is a lot less UKIP-friendly than Nottinghamshire, where Newark is.

 

I think Farage would have an excellent chance if he stood.

The fact that Labour clung onto 2nd in 2010 when lots of similar seats saw us dropping behind the Lib Dems makes me feel like it'll be an interesting battle rather than just a "how many Tories will defect to UKIP" guessing game. I'm sure Farage is tempted but he'd stand a better chance waiting until next year.

I can't see Boris standing if there's any chance that he may not win, ie if Farage stands. Boris would want a very safe Tory seat. Would be too humiliating to stand and lose!

I can't see Boris standing if there's any chance that he may not win, ie if Farage stands. Boris would want a very safe Tory seat. Would be too humiliating to stand and lose!

Tirren's suggestion would be the dream scenario. Johnson v Farage and they both lose :lol:

There's already a Tory candidate in place. Heaven forbid the overexcitable media miss an opportunity to mince themselves silly over Borismania by checking facts though.

There's already a Tory candidate in place. Heaven forbid the overexcitable media miss an opportunity to mince themselves silly over Borismania by checking facts though.

True but I assume that the local party can change the candidate if there is a by-election. I know that the Lib Dems have a mechanism in place to do that. It's not necessarily a means of parachuting in a particular candidate. It can simply be a matter of deciding that somebody would make a great MP but would perhaps struggle under the media spotlight of a by-election.

A deselection and a local reselection would be a process nightmare. Even if Boris did want to risk it, it'd be an incredibly unedifying spectacle. He'd be better off just going for a Home Counties seat next year.

Aside: we really were SPOILED ROTTEN with by-elections in 2012. This Parliament's been a right bore for them otherwise.

Aside: we really were SPOILED ROTTEN with by-elections in 2012. This Parliament's been a right bore for them otherwise.

#rotherham4ever

So Farage has said that he's not standing as he wants to concentrate on the Euro elections.

I still think UKIP have a chance here, despite Farage not standing. Especially if they're riding high off a huge win in the European elections at the time. The Tories really have a very poor record in byelections in this parliament--I saw a while ago that, on average, their vote has actually fallen in byelections a little more than the Lib Dems have!!

 

I don't think Labour have a hope in hell of winning it. Like most rural areas, it's really trended away heavily from Labour as the party has got more and more of a metropolitan image since 1997 (and that trend is accelerating judging by local election results in the past few years). I'm expecting a distant third for them, possibly with a fall on their 2010 vote.

That fact on Tory by-election performances will almost certainly be down to most of the by-elections so far being in fairly safe Labour seats where the Conservatives are second, so they have a higher base to fall from - and a lot of those oppositional votes have just gone to Ukip. It'll be interesting to see how they actually do now they're playing defence, which has only happened in Corby so far.

The last Tory to win a by-election while the party was in power is William Hague who won Richmond (just) in 1989.